2018 started strong for the Aftermarket. Frequent and sustained winter storms that hung around well past their welcome helped our industry grow +4.0% in dollars through November; December brought the number down to +2.5%

1. Copyright 2018. The NPD Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
This presentation is proprietary and confidential and may not be
disclosed in any manner, in whole or in part, to any third party
without the express written consent of NPD.
2018 Automotive Aftermarket
Year-End Webinar
January 30, 2019
Nathan H. Shipley
Executive Director of Industry Analysis, Automotive
nathan.shipley@npd.com
713-576-5159

2. The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: External Public Use 2
1. Presentation will last approximately 30 minutes.
2. No Q&A due to high attendance.
3. NPD’s Retail Tracking Service tracks 29 front of store automotive product
categories. It excludes application-specific parts and all commercial
volume.
4. NPD estimates that the Retail Tracking Service covers 71% of the U.S. DIY
Retail market.
5. All data and statements are based on calendar year 2018 data unless
otherwise noted.
Housekeeping

3. The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: External Public Use 3
Areas of Discussion
Macro Consumer, Retail, and Mobility Trends
2018 Aftermarket Performance
2019 Forecast
Brief look at the e-Commerce channel

4. The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: External Public Use
CONSUMER, RETAIL, AND
MOBILITY TRENDS

5. The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: External Public Use 5
Retail is Rebounding
After plunging into the negatives, US Retail sales have stabilized, growing 2.6%
in the last 12 Months
-0.2% -0.2%
0.4%
1.9%
2.6%
2.9%
2.6%
12ME Jun'17 12ME Sep'17 12ME Dec'17 12ME Mar'18 12ME Jun'18 12 ME Sept'18 12 ME Dec'18*
Source: The NPD Group/Consumer Tracking Service
Auto, Beauty, Office Supplies, Housewares, Juvenile – Retail Tracking Service
Video Games – Market Dynamics Report; Video Entertainment – Video Watch®
Nielsen data from Nielsen Answers
Includes Accessories, Apparel, Auto, Beauty, Footwear, Housewares, Juvenile, Office Supplies, SDA, Tech, Toys, Video Games, Video Entertainment, CREST®, and Nielsen CPG categories
*Preliminary; not all industries captured at time of presentation

6. The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: External Public Use 6
U.S. Vehicle & Driver Population Trends
While the size of the vehicle population continues to grow, the average age
of vehicles continues to trend older
Source: Experian; U.S. Department of Transportation
11.2
11.3
11.4
11.5
11.8
Q1
2014
Q1
2015
Q1
2016
Q1
2017
Q1
2018
U.S. Average Vehicle Age (Years)
250.9
256.9
265.3
271.0
275.1
Q3
2014
Q3
2015
Q3
2016
Q3
2017
Q3
2018
U.S. Vehicles in Operation (MM)
163
176
190
212
223
CY
1990
CY
1995
CY
2001
CY
2009
CY
2017
Licensed Drivers (000)

7. The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: External Public Use 7
Miles-Driven Growth Rate
The miles-driven growth rate has slowed over the
last 18 months, taking us down to our new normal.
October 2018 only grew at +0.6%.
Source: U.S. Department of Transportation
12ME Oct. 2016
+2.7%
vs. 2015
12ME Oct. 2018
+0.44%
vs. 2017

8. The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: External Public Use 8
Consumer Spending
on Gasoline
Consumers spent over $400B on gasoline in 2018, $43.4B
more than in 2017. Spending on gasoline increased
12.1% in 2018 compared to the prior year.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
-1.7% -2.9%
-24.0%
-8.9%
11.3% 12.1%
CY 2013 CY 2014 CY 2015 CY 2016 CY 2017 CY 2018

9. The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: External Public Use 9
25 Years: Gasoline Price Trend
Source: U.S. Department of Transportation; Rolling 12 Months
There has been a tremendous amount of volatility in gasoline prices over the last 14 years compared to the 10 years preceding
this period. Multiple runs from $1.xx to $4.00 have taken place with prices in 2018 hitting the $3.00 mark.
First run to $4.00; behavior
shifts and declining miles
driven trends
Second run to $4.00;
miles driven growth rate
improving post-recession
Third run of increasing
prices; currently at $3.00;
miles driven growth rate
stabilizing after decline
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
Dec-1994
Jun-1995
Dec-1995
Jun-1996
Dec-1996
Jun-1997
Dec-1997
Jun-1998
Dec-1998
Jun-1999
Dec-1999
Jun-2000
Dec-2000
Jun-2001
Dec-2001
Jun-2002
Dec-2002
Jun-2003
Dec-2003
Jun-2004
Dec-2004
Jun-2005
Dec-2005
Jun-2006
Dec-2006
Jun-2007
Dec-2007
Jun-2008
Dec-2008
Jun-2009
Dec-2009
Jun-2010
Dec-2010
Jun-2011
Dec-2011
Jun-2012
Dec-2012
Jun-2013
Dec-2013
Jun-2014
Dec-2014
Jun-2015
Dec-2015
Jun-2016
Dec-2016
Jun-2017
Dec-2017
Jun-2018
Dec-2018

10. The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: External Public Use 10
Consumer Concern over Gasoline Prices
Almost 2/3rds of consumers told us that they are not concerned about higher
gasoline prices today. The majority told us that they know prices fluctuate and
this increase is likely temporary.
The NPD Group, 2019 Consumer Outlook Survey
Base: Vehicle Owners, Total Answers
Survey fielded August 2018
64%
70%
61% 62% 64% 66%
Total Answers 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-59 60+
I am not concerned at all
I am not very concerned as the economy is strong and this change is not impacting my ability to spend in other areas
I am not very concerned as I know gasoline prices fluctuate and this change is likely temporary

11. The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: External Public Use 11
Gasoline Brand Switching
As gas prices started to increase in 2018, major fuel
brands posted a significant decline in share while
traditionals and other smaller brands increased.
38.2
12.6
19.6
29.7
38.9
13.4
19.0
28.7
41.3
13.3
18.8
26.5
40.0
13.6
19.0
27.3
Majors Traditionals HVRs Others
2015 2016 2017 2018
The NPD Group, Motor Fuels Index

12. The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: External Public Use
AFTERMARKET TRENDS

13. The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: External Public Use 13
Several companies announced major game-changing moves in 2018. In
addition to the points below, eBay launched “shop by diagram” technology
and GoodYear announced a new urban store format
Aftermarket News in 2018
February
Announces additional
round of funding from
ExxonMobil and
General Motors
May
Announces tire
partnership with Sears.
Pep Boys and Monro
Auto Service/Tire Centers
announced / expanded
in 2018 as well
Amazon announces
launch of Amazon
Basics Motor Oil
July September
Announces free next-
day shipping in 83
markets if ordered by
10:00 PM the day prior
October
Walmart & Advance
announce partnership

14. The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: External Public Use 14
Aftermarket Disruption Themes
Our industry is on a path of disruption coming from multiple angles
The Consumer Where they Shop / Buy How they get around
1 2 3

15. The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: External Public Use 15
Aftermarket Performance
2018 started strong for the Aftermarket. Frequent and sustained winter storms
that hung around well past their welcome helped our industry grow +4.0% in
dollars through November; December brought the number down to +2.5%
The NPD Group/Retail Tracking Service
3.6
1.7 1.9
2.6
2.0
0.7
2.2
-1.1
3.3
2.5
-1.5
4.1
Dollars EQ Units Average Price
CY 2015 CY 2016 CY 2017 52 WE 1/5/19

16. The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: External Public Use 16
Dollar Volume Growth Trend
January and February 2018 were the best
performing months in recent history
8.6% 7.9%
0.2%
3.2%
7.5%
3.8%
2.1%
3.2%
2.5%
3.8%
4.6%
-3.9%
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Source: The NPD Group/Retail Tracking Service

17. The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: External Public Use
-3.9%
3.0%
-5.2% -5.5%
-13.1%
-18.1%-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
Dec-18 WE Dec 08 2018 WE Dec 15 2018 WE Dec 22 2018 WE Dec 29 2018 WE Jan 05 2019
The NPD Group / Retail Tracking Service
While the monthly numbers show a modest decline for the month, the last
two weeks posted significant declines
17
December 2018 by Week

18. The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: External Public Use
2.5
-1.5
4.1
-0.6
-1.7
1.2
1.9
-1.7
3.7
4.2
-0.9
5.1
Dollars Units ASP
Grand Total Accessories & Appearance Chemicals, Additives & Fluids Maintenance & Repair
In spite of general market trends, the accessories and appearance grouping of
categories posted a decline in average selling price.
18
Super-Category Performance
The NPD Group / Retail Tracking Service
52 WE Jan 05 2019 vs. YAG

19. The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: External Public Use
The worst performing categories are likely impacted by a shift to e-commerce while the paint
category has suffered as interest in peelable coatings wanes
19
Dollar Volume Pct. Change by Category
15.2
10.2
6.5 5.9
3.5 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.2
0.0 -0.6 -0.6 -0.8
-2.3 -3.0
-8.3
Wipers
Wash.Fluid
Lighting
Refrigerants
Filters
Greases
LDShopEquip.
FluidMgt.
SparkPlugs
Batteries
AirFresh
Electrical
Antifreeze
Perf.Chem.
Sealants
MotorOil
Trans.Fluid
Batt.Acc.
App.Chem.
HandCare
Tape
CargoMgt.
Tire/WheelAcc.
App.Acc.
Int.Acc.
Towing
Ext.Acc.
BodyRepair
Paint
Source: The NPD Group / Retail Tracking Service
Dollar Change by Automotive Category (%)
52 WE 1/5/19 vs. YAG Total
Automotive
Aftermarket
+2.5%

20. The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: External Public Use
Overall average price during the 2018 period increased 4.1% on top of a similar increase in 2017.
The majority of categories had an increase in selling price during the period.
20
Average Price Pct. Change by Category
7.2
4.8
9.3
-7.0
6.9
4.1
2.5
4.7
7.4
2.8
3.9
1.9 2.7 1.9
2.8
4.4
8.4
1.0
1.9
2.9
5.8
-1.5 -1.0
-2.0
2.6 3.0 3.4
-0.7
3.3
Wipers
Wash.Fluid
Lighting
Refrigerants
Filters
Greases
LDShopEquip.
FluidMgt.
SparkPlugs
Batteries
AirFresh
Electrical
Antifreeze
Perf.Chem.
Sealants
MotorOil
Trans.Fluid
Batt.Acc.
App.Chem.
HandCare
Tape
CargoMgt.
Tire/WheelAcc.
App.Acc.
Int.Acc.
Towing
Ext.Acc.
BodyRepair
Paint
Source: The NPD Group / Retail Tracking Service
Average Price Change by Automotive Category (%)
52 WE 1/5/19 vs. YAG Total
Automotive
Aftermarket
+4.1%

21. The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: External Public Use 21
Private Label Performance
The NPD Group/Retail Tracking Service / YTD 10.6.18
Excludes filters and batteries
Dollar Growth Rate Unit Growth Rate Increase in Distribution
8.8% 7.3% 100%
Private label grew 8.8%,
compared to 3.8%
in the total market
Overall market unit volume
declined -1.1%, while private
label grew 7.3%
Private label distribution
has doubled since 2014

22. The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: External Public Use
-1.6
-3.1
1.6
-2.2
-7.6
5.8
-8.9
-6.8
-2.3-2.5 -3.0
0.5
-0.6
-1.6
1.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Dollars EQ Units Average Price
Grand Total Convenience Drug Grocery Mid-Tier/Value
In aggregate, the expanded channel market declined -1.6% in 2018. Every
channel within this aggregate declined with the drug channel declining the
most at -8.9%
22
Expanded Channel Performance
The NPD Group / Retail Tracking Service: Expanded Channels
52 WE Jan 05 2019 vs. YAG

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E-COMMERCE

24. The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: External Public Use
5% 5%
9%
15%
22%
28%
18%
22%
29%
23%
20%
43%
40%
24
E-commerce: Retail Penetration
12 months ending September 2018
Source: The NPD Group/ US Consumer Tracking Service, except Office Supplies and Beauty: Retail Tracking (POS) Service,
Consumer Electronics: Checkout Tracking
**CPG number sourced from Nielsen”
*Excludes Commercial Channels
***% of buyers online via NPD Car Care Track
1 1 1 3 1 2 2 2 2 0 1 3 4
CPG** Commercial
Food
Office
Supplies*
Auto*** Toys Small
Appliances
Prestige
Beauty
Apparel Footwear Accessories Video
Games
Consumer
Electronics
Media
Entertainment

25. The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: External Public Use 25
Automotive E-commerce Sales Trend*
Automotive E-commerce has experienced double digit growth in dollars and
units the past two years
*Tires and Wheels Removed
Source: The NPD Group/Checkout E-commerce
$2,832.7
$3,405.1
$4,459.4
12 ME Nov 2016 12 ME Nov 2017 12 ME Nov 2018
77
87
109
12 ME Nov 2016 12 ME Nov 2017 12 ME Nov 2018
Dollars (Billions) Units (Millions)
+13% +26%+20% +31%

26. The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: External Public Use 26
Stats on the E-commerce Auto Buyer
They’re mainstream and purchase about 2 auto products a year online
Source: The NPD Group / Checkout E-commerce, 12ME November 2018
15% $145 2.3
E-Commerce Auto
penetration
Nearly 15% of all U.S.
e-commerce shoppers
bought an auto product in
the last 12 months
Online Spend per
e-commerce Auto buyer
Online, on average,
consumers spent $145
on Auto products in the
last year
Average # of Auto
Online Orders in a Year
Online auto spenders
made an average 2.3 auto
purchases a year,
increasing over last year
Average Online
Auto Order value
The average Auto
purchase was $63, about
the same as last year
$63

27. The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: External Public Use 27
E-Commerce by the Numbers
50%
The Exterior Accessories
Category has seen buyer count
increase by 50% over the last 12
months
80%
Almost 80% of the e-commerce
dollar volume is picked up at a
retail location vs. being delivered
to a home6.8MM
Almost 7 million consumers
purchased an exterior accessory
on the internet in the last 12
months
2%
AmazonBasics Motor Oil had a
2% share of e-commerce motor
oil sales volume in November.
The product was launched in July
Source: The NPD Group / Checkout E-commerce

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LOOKING FORWARD

29. The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: External Public Use 29
Aftermarket Trend Disrupters
Many factors are changing the landscape of the automotive aftermarket.
Some are short term, while others are here to stay.
Import Tarriffs & USMCA
Truck Driver, Technician,
& Counter-Person Shortage
OEM Creativity
eCommerce
Longer Oil Drain
Intervals
Mild Weather
New Car
Sales
Changing
Consumer Target
Shift to DIFM
from DIY
Private
Label
Direct
to Consumer
Slump in Sweet
Spot Car Count

30. The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: External Public Use 30
We expect the DIY market to be flat in
2019, based on the following inputs

31. The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: External Public Use 31
Major Inputs for 2019 Forecast
Average Price
Continuing to increase in
the 3-5% range
Miles Driven
Growth rate stable but
relatively low (in the 0.3%
- 0.5% range)
Car Pricing
2019 index points to
flat/declining prices

32. The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidentialDocument classification: External Public Use
Thank youThank you
32
Nathan H. Shipley
Executive Director of Industry Analysis, Automotive
nathan.shipley@npd.com
713-576-5159