AI holds the potential to be a major driver of economic growth and social progress, if industry, civil society, government, and the public work together to support the development of the technology with thoughtful attention to its potential and to managing its risks." That's the introduction to the White House's October report on the future of artificial intelligence. Perhaps no function of the U.S. government stands to benefit more from the sound application of machine learning and AI than national security. Military leaders look toward a future where an increasing amount of dull and dangerous work can be offloaded to machines. These robot helpers could be physical - wheeled or legged units accompanying infantry troops on patrol - merely virtual: advanced co-pilot agents helping airmen land F-35s on the decks of carriers, - programs running in the background of massive intelligence and processing efforts. Artificial intelligence offers the chance to reduce the costs, time, and mission-related dangers across the Defense Department.

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Patrick Tucker
Technology Editor, Defense One @deftechpat
AI and the Future of the U.S.
Defense Department
I, Robot… You?

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Now consider GO
Chess # of branching moves = around 30-40 vs. GO = 200-250
Marriage = ?
Exponential Advancement in Artificial
Intelligence
“The machine isn’t going to walk out of the hotel there and start doing extraordinary
things. It can’t manage a baseball team, can’t tell you what to do with a bad
marriage.
– George Plimpton after watching Deep Blue beat Gary Kasparov in 1997
“

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Narrow AI: Applications of machine learning and algos to specific, defined
tasks… translate this, solve this calculation, find this.
Central questions:
• Did we define this problem correctly?
• Do we understand the scaling functions?
Today’s AI (ML) Narrow and Everywhere

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General AI: Applications of machine learning, and possibly deep
learning, neural nets or other techniques for dealing with
amounts of unstructured data to a much wider class of problems
(general) … fix this problem, invent, create, predict.
Central questions:
• Are we mistaking its judgement for our own?
• How do we trust it?

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General AI + Bad Data = Bad Day

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• Clear public mandate to strive for superiority, labor concerns subordinate
• Peer competitors have same mandate
• Unlike some other sectors of the economy, defense suffers chronic talent
labor shortage in relation to size of problem (too much data, two few
humans to produce better national security outcomes from data)
Result: The defense space will have an impact on the
future of AI because they can bypass labor concerns

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SEPTEMBER 26, 2017

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When Robots Storm the Beach

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There will be 44 times as much
digital information in 2020 (35ZB) as
there was in 2009 according to IDC
((.8 ZB) according to IDC.)

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Thank you!
@Deftechpat