Introduction to the statistics of texas holdem

1. CONFIDENTIAL MATERIAL·Donotdistribute·ProximusInc.·2018
Texas Hold’em: Playing the odds
Alejandro Martín
shoppermotion CSO

2. How to win?

3. How to win?
• Winning more than losing
• Any winrate above 0 is good

4. How to win?
• Beginners tends to win and lose more than experts with
same hand games.
Beginners Traps:
• Playing too many hands
• Taking too many hands after the flop
• Playing by “feel” rather than by cards
• Letting your emotions get the better of you
• Thinking short term

5. How to win?
Texas Hold’em is about long run, not a single hand.
The statistics and correct decisions will make the
difference. (Playing vs worse players than you…)
Let’s do the magic…

6. • 1st (Pre-flop): No cards in the table (50 unseen)
• 2nd (Flop): 3 cards in table (47 unseen)
• 3rd (Turn): 4 cards in table (46 unseen)
• 4th (River): 5 cards in table (45 unseen)
The value of a hand is based on mainly four factors:
Cards, round, position and number of players in the table.
Rounds

7. • The more players the more chances to see better hands.
Full tables: More fish to take money from. More moves and ways of
playing. More time to wait for a good pot.
Short table: A tiny piece of information is making the difference.
Calling with no so good cards. Waiting is not a good choice…
Semi-full table: A balance between full and shorts.
#players

8. Round
It is not the same to have four cards to a flush in the flop than
in the turn. (~35% vs 19% to complete it.)

9. Player position

10. Player position
In the pre-flop round the first to talk is the UTG (under the gun)
In the following rounds the first is the Small-Blind
The button is the best seat. Since after the pre-flop you are the last
to act. So you are the one with the most information available.
Example: Imagine you have a mediocre middle pair: If there is a lot
of betting and raising you will happily fold.
What if you are in the early positions?
In general, you want to play more hands in position than you do out of position.

11. Player position
VPIP : %of the time a player either raises or calls pre-flop:
VPIP Positon Awareness: Hands in LP/Hands in EP
Online players

12. Outs: How many cards in the deck will help you make your hand.
Odds: Tells the probability of winning any given hand.
Let’s say you are betting in a horse race with odds “seven to one”
7:1 = $70 Winnings from a $10 bet
How odds work

13. From Flop to Turn
13 cards in suit - 4 visible = 9 still in the deck
52 total cards - 5 visible = 47 unseen cards
9 cards will give me a win and 38 a lose.
That’s a 38:9 ~ 4:1 (20%)
From Turn to River is a 37:9 ~ 4:1 (20%)
Both combined ~ 35% of getting the flush in the Turn or River

14. Pot odds
Should you call the bet?
Depends on:
1. How much money is in the pot
2. How much should I bet
3. Other factors… (a bluff, blinds, etc.)
$90 in the pot + $10 rivals new bet = $100 you can win
if the bet is $10, then the pot is 10:1 ~9%

15. Pot odds
We need to compare the pot odds vs hand odds.
10:1 ($100:$10) vs 4:1
That means that if this exact same situations occurs 5 times:
$100 - $40 = $60 profit from 5 hands
won from 1 flush losses from
4 hands
The poker gods say you will lose a lot, but in the long term it will work…

16. Pot odds
The rule of 2 and 4:
• During the flop get your outs and multiply by 2 waiting for the turn
• During the turn multiply the outs by 2 waiting for the river
• Multiply by 4 during the flop waiting for the river (if there is an all-in)
Example:
If we have a double-ended straight draw:
Hand: J♠ 10♠ Flop: 9♣ 8♠ 3♦
Outs = 8 (7♠7♦7♣7♥ Q♠Q♦Q♣Q♥)
8*2 = ~16% odds to complete in the turn
8*4 = ~32% odds to complete in the turn or the river

17. • Imagine that everyone in the table is calling the bets, no matter
what cards he has. That’s call a limper.
They try to get the pots calling from out of positions.
We need to identify them and try to raise from positions, just to
clean them.
• Imagine playing vs a player that is raising a lot, so the pot odds
are decreasing. What should we do?
Some problems
Strategy

18. Pre-flop basics
• Play with the position
• Play strong hands aggressively
• Don’t slow play
• Raise x3 or x4 the BB
• Play with a plan
• In early positions if the hand is not good enough to raise, then fold.
• Know the strength of your hand…
HOW TO
LEARN?

20. R
R
R
R
R<2
R <1
C>4
R
R
R
R
R<1
C
R
R
R
C
R
R
C
R
C
C
C
C>4
C>4
R
R
R
R<3
C
C>4
C>4
R
R
C>4
C>4
C>4
C>4
R
R
C>4
C>4
C>4
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R
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C>4
R
C>4
C>4
C>4
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C>4
R
C>4
C>4
C>4
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C>4
C>4
C>4
C>4
C
C>4
C>4
C>4
C>4
C>4
C>4
C>4
C>4
C>4
C>4
C>4
C>4
C>4
C>4
C>4
C>4
C>4
C>4
C>4
C>4
R
R
R
R
R<2
R<1
C>4
R
R
R
R
R<1
C
R
R
R
C
R
R
C
R
C
C
C
C>4
C>4
R
R
R
R<3
C
C>4
C>4
R
R
C>4
C>4
C>4
C>4
R
R
C>4
C>4
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C>4
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C>4
C>4
C>4
C>4
C>4
C>4
C>4
C>4
R
R
R
R
R<2
R<2
C>3
R
R
R
R
R<1
R<2
R
R
R
R<3
R
R
R
R
R<3
R<2
R
R
R<2
R<2
R
R<2
C>4
C>2
R
R
R
R<3
R<2
C>4
C>4
R
R
C>4
C>4
C>4
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R
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R
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R
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R
R
R
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R
R<2
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R
R
R<3
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R
R
R
R<3
R<2
R
R
R<2
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R
R<2
C>4
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R
R
R
R<3
R<2
C>4
C>4
R
R
C>4
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R
R
R
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C
R
R
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R
C
C
R
R<3
C
C
R
C
C
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C
C
C
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C
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R
R
R<3
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C>4
R
R
C>4
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R<3
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C>4
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R
R
R
R
R<2
X
X
R
R
R
R
X
X
R
R<3
X
X
R
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
R
R
R
R<3
R<2
C>4
C>4
R
R
C>4
C>4
C>4
C>4
R
R<3
C>4
C>4
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C>4
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R
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6Players
MAX
6Players
MAX
LEGEND NR No Raise R Against a Raise RR Against a Raise and a Re-Raise CAP Against a Cap X Check Raise Call Special
UTG(3) UTG+1(4) CO(5) Button(6) SB(1) BB(2)
AA-KK
QQ
JJ
TT
99
88 - 77
66 - 22
AKs
AQs
AJs
ATs
A9s
A8s - A2s
AK
AQ
AJ
AT
KQs
KJs
KTs
KQ
KJ
KT
QJs
QTs
QJ
QT
JTs
JT
T9s - 65s
T8s - 97s
XXs
NR R RR CAP NR R RR CAP NR R RR CAP NR R RR CAP NR R RR CAP NR R RR CAP
ODDS
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
45to1
22to1
14.3to1
10.5to1
8.2to1
6.7to1
5.6to1
4.75to1
4.1to1
3.6to1
3.2to1
2.8to1
2.5to1
2.2to1
2.1to1
1.9to1
1.7to1
1.6to1
OUTS POT ODDS
C>4 means to call if there are at least 4 callers, else fold
R<2 means to raise if there are no more than 2 player in the pot, else call

21. And remember:
If you don’t recognise the fish at your table…
you are the fish!
One more thing

22. alex@shoppermotion.com
CONFIDENTIAL MATERIAL·Donotdistribute·ProximusInc.·2018