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The Gauteng City-RegionProfessor David Everatt, Executive Director, GCROESRI Conference, Drakensburg
Quick introduction to the GCRO• Collect and store data, surveys• Develop indicators• GIS analysis and visualisation, websi...
The changing urban form
The GCR in the national space economyLocation and size
The GCR in the national space economyLocation and size
Initial viewOverview
AfriGIS BizCountThe space economy
The GCR in the national space economyLocation and size• Gauteng represents 36% of national GDP. The wider city-region repr...
The GCR in the national space economyLocation and size• Gauteng is about 2% of the national land surface, and within this ...
• 11 million people (22% of the totalpopulation of the country)• The population has been growingrapidly, faster than that ...
• Some aspects of our population seem unique, e.g. low ratio of 65+ to those 15-64• OECD average 2008: 20,0%• Gauteng 2008...
• Gauteng is the province with the largestshare of national GDP (at 34%). Secondlargest contributor is Kwazulu-Natal• When...
• Reasonably impressive growth in GDP• OECD average 2001-2007: 2,2%• Gauteng 2001-2007: 5,1%• Gauteng 2001-2010: 4,1%Avera...
• Although Gauteng is one of the provinceswith the lowest unemployment rate in SouthAfrica, its unemployment rate is thehi...
• Further, Gauteng’s employment has expanded much faster than other regions• OECD average 2001-2009: 0,7%• Gauteng 2001-20...
• Gauteng growth (2,7% per year) faster than the national average (1,5%).• Ten years ago KZN was the largest province• Now...
Gauteng’s population increased by 2.9 million people from 2001 to 2011Total population = 12.3 million peopleGauteng’s popu...
• OECD average 2008: 5 041 771• Gauteng 2008: 10 784 862PopulationCensus 2011
We’re getting better … but still live apart
Populationby raceSouth AfricaCensus 2011GautengCensus 2011GautengGCRO Quality ofLife Survey 2011African 79,2% 77,4% 77,4%C...
Where we live
• Population pyramid shows greater proportions in the 20-34 age groups• Lower proportions in older groupings• A typical si...
DensityCensus 2011
Trends that need deeper exploration• Population growth in some municipalities much slowerPopulation 1996 2001 2011 2001-20...
Core & periphery or more complex?
GautengCensus 1996GautengCensus 2001GautengCensus 2011GautengGCRO Qualityof Life Survey2011None 9,7% 8,7% 3,7% 2,8%Primary...
3. Education
3. HousingFormal vs informalhouseholdGautengCensus 1996GautengCensus 2001GautengCensus 2011GautengGCRO Quality ofLife Surv...
02468101214TshwaneEkurhuleniJohannesburgMogale CityRandfonteinWestonariaMerafong CityEmfuleniMidvaalLesedi20092011Housing ...
Access to piped water
Access to toiletsAccess topiped waterGautengCensus1996GautengCensus2001GautengCensus2011QoL 2011Gauteng 96,2% 97,1% 98,2% ...
Electricty
South African & GCR trendsGauteng city-region urban and other
South African & GCR trendsGauteng city-region settlement type
South African & GCR trendsGCR hotspot density analysis of businesses
South African & GCR trendsGauteng’s green infrastructure network
South African & GCR trendsGauteng’s grey vs. green infrastructure
Satisfaction with dwelling
Satisfaction with water
Satisfaction with sanitation
Satisfaction with waste removal
Satisfaction with energy sources
Satisfaction with roads
Satisfaction with cost of municipal services
Satisfaction with billing of services
Community
‘What is the main health problem facing yourcommunity?’2009, HIV/AIDS,492009, Alcohol, 112009, Drugs, 82009, High BP, 7200...
Household access to communications0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%EkurhuleniEmfuleniJohannesburgLesediMerafongMidvaalMogaleR...
Values & attitudes
68 6958 55 56 5640 4112 1011 17 1419172220 2132 28 302543370%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%African2009African2011Coloured...
Indians do not deserve to benefit from affirmative action221520 2229182027496759510102030405060708090100African Indian Col...
Coloureds are helping to build the new South Africa3642575129302127352823 220%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%African India...
‘Corruption is main threat to our democracy’Total, Stronglyagree, 36Total, Agree, 48Total, Neutral, 9Total, Disagree, 6Tot...
Satisfaction (or not!) with government 09/11Satisfied 09,National, 57Satisfied 09,Provincial, 50Satisfied 09, Localgovt, 4...
Batho Pele• Only 19% believe publicservants act according toBatho Pele principles(explained to respondent)down from 27% in...
Economy, incomeetc
Employment destinations
A mobile GCR
Migration & migrants
Migration to Gauteng
Origins of internal migrants to GP (all origin points)
Origins of internal & cross border migrantsProvinces of origin ofinternal migrants (%)Region of origin of crossborder migr...
Attitudes to cross border migrants & migrationAttitudes to migration policyAttitudes to migrants• 2.3 % identified ‘foreig...
Quality of Life
QoL dimensions – means (2009/2011)Health, 2009, 0.72Health, 2011, 0.72Infrastructure, 2009,0.78Infrastructure, 2011,0.78Dw...
2009 mean: 6.24 2011 mean: 6.25
QoL means by municipalityRandfontein,Category 1, 6.45Midvaal,Category 1, 6.42Tshwane,Category 1, 6.33Johannesburg,Category...
Some conclusionso Mood is very low. This is natural between elections, as part of national (andprovincial and local) mood ...
Thank you
The Gauteng City Region keynote address
The Gauteng City Region keynote address
The Gauteng City Region keynote address
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The Gauteng City Region keynote address

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The Gauteng City-Region Keynote Address by Professor David Everatt presented at the 2013 Esri South Africa Summit

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The Gauteng City Region keynote address

  1. 1. The Gauteng City-RegionProfessor David Everatt, Executive Director, GCROESRI Conference, Drakensburg
  2. 2. Quick introduction to the GCRO• Collect and store data, surveys• Develop indicators• GIS analysis and visualisation, websitesData, indicators andbenchmarks• Connect government to academic expertise (or vice versa)Government –academia portal• Academic publications• Hosting of seminars ,colloquiaAcademiccontribution• Become leading research centreMedium to longterm research• Open ended sharing data and info between partners• All universities , all spheres of government, local and international research ,Urban observatories around the worldPartnership andnetworks• Direct assistance to governmentOn request policywork
  3. 3. The changing urban form
  4. 4. The GCR in the national space economyLocation and size
  5. 5. The GCR in the national space economyLocation and size
  6. 6. Initial viewOverview
  7. 7. AfriGIS BizCountThe space economy
  8. 8. The GCR in the national space economyLocation and size• Gauteng represents 36% of national GDP. The wider city-region represents 43%
  9. 9. The GCR in the national space economyLocation and size• Gauteng is about 2% of the national land surface, and within this 17% is ‘urban’
  10. 10. • 11 million people (22% of the totalpopulation of the country)• The population has been growingrapidly, faster than that of thecountry as a whole.• Compared to 90 other OECD metro-regions, the GCR has one of the mostdynamic population growth rates• More than 2.7% per year between1997 and 2007, against 0.96 % for theOECD averagePopulation growthThe GCR in international perspective
  11. 11. • Some aspects of our population seem unique, e.g. low ratio of 65+ to those 15-64• OECD average 2008: 20,0%• Gauteng 2008: 6,1%• Gauteng 2011: 6,9%Old age dependency rateThe GCR in international perspective
  12. 12. • Gauteng is the province with the largestshare of national GDP (at 34%). Secondlargest contributor is Kwazulu-Natal• When compared to 90 OECD metro-regions, Gauteng’s ranks 14th in termsof its contribution to national GDP.• Gauteng’s economic importance for SA issimilar to Auckland’s to New Zealand andlarger than the economic importance Tokyorepresents for Japan, London to the UKand Paris to FranceContribution to GDPThe GCR in international perspective
  13. 13. • Reasonably impressive growth in GDP• OECD average 2001-2007: 2,2%• Gauteng 2001-2007: 5,1%• Gauteng 2001-2010: 4,1%Average annual % change in GDP (constant prices)The GCR in international perspective
  14. 14. • Although Gauteng is one of the provinceswith the lowest unemployment rate in SouthAfrica, its unemployment rate is thehighest across OECD metro-regions, anissue which the economic crisis has onlyamplified.UnemploymentThe GCR in international perspective
  15. 15. • Further, Gauteng’s employment has expanded much faster than other regions• OECD average 2001-2009: 0,7%• Gauteng 2001-2009: 3,8%• Gauteng 2001-2011: 3,7%Average annual % change in employmentThe GCR in international perspective
  16. 16. • Gauteng growth (2,7% per year) faster than the national average (1,5%).• Ten years ago KZN was the largest province• Now Gauteng 2 million morePopulationCensus 2011Population 1996 2001 2011Forwardprojection to2020Gauteng 7 834 125 9 388 855 12 272 263 15 617 283South Africa 40 583 572 44 819 777 51 770 560 58 943 337% 19,3% 20,9% 23,7% 26,5%
  17. 17. Gauteng’s population increased by 2.9 million people from 2001 to 2011Total population = 12.3 million peopleGauteng’s population as a share of the nation’sCensus 2011
  18. 18. • OECD average 2008: 5 041 771• Gauteng 2008: 10 784 862PopulationCensus 2011
  19. 19. We’re getting better … but still live apart
  20. 20. Populationby raceSouth AfricaCensus 2011GautengCensus 2011GautengGCRO Quality ofLife Survey 2011African 79,2% 77,4% 77,4%Coloured 8,9% 3,5% 3,4%Indian/Asian 2,5% 2,9% 3,3%White 8,9% 15,6% 15,9%Other 0,5% 0,7% NATotal 100% 100% 100%Census by race (watch those ‘minorities’)
  21. 21. Where we live
  22. 22. • Population pyramid shows greater proportions in the 20-34 age groups• Lower proportions in older groupings• A typical signature of a region where a key population dynamic is migrationPopulationCensus 2011
  23. 23. DensityCensus 2011
  24. 24. Trends that need deeper exploration• Population growth in some municipalities much slowerPopulation 1996 2001 2011 2001-2011City of Cape Town 2562280 2892240 3740030 29,3%City of Johannesburg 2638470 3226060 4434830 37,5%City of Tshwane 1792360 2142320 2921490 36,4%Ekurhuleni 2026980 2481760 3178470 28,1%Emfuleni 597285 657949 721663 9,7%Lesedi 66206 71868 99520 38,5%Midvaal 53353 64271 95301 48,3%Merafong City 209727 210481 197520 -6,2%Mogale City 226446 295505 362422 22,6%Randfontein 107711 128842 149286 15,9%Westonaria 115592 109799 111767 1,8%
  25. 25. Core & periphery or more complex?
  26. 26. GautengCensus 1996GautengCensus 2001GautengCensus 2011GautengGCRO Qualityof Life Survey2011None 9,7% 8,7% 3,7% 2,8%Primary only 18,3% 17,1% 10,8% 13,5%Secondaryincomplete39,3% 34,2% 33,0% 32,9%Matric 22,8% 27,7% 34,4% 30,8%More 9,9% 12,3% 18,1% 20,0%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%% of 20 years+ by highest level of education achieved
  27. 27. 3. Education
  28. 28. 3. HousingFormal vs informalhouseholdGautengCensus 1996GautengCensus 2001GautengCensus 2011GautengGCRO Quality ofLife Survey 2011Formal 74,8% 74,4% 79,8% 87,7%Informal & traditional 24,8% 25,2% 19,3% 12,2%Other 0,3% 0,3% 0,9% 0,1%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  29. 29. 02468101214TshwaneEkurhuleniJohannesburgMogale CityRandfonteinWestonariaMerafong CityEmfuleniMidvaalLesedi20092011Housing as the single biggest perceived problem decreased from 2009 to 2011among the sample respondents:* For evaluation purposes the 2011 municipal boundaries are used (2009 data for Kungwini and Nokeng is thus combined withthat of Tshwane); : ‘0 percent position’PercentWhat is the main problem facing your community?
  30. 30. Access to piped water
  31. 31. Access to toiletsAccess topiped waterGautengCensus1996GautengCensus2001GautengCensus2011QoL 2011Gauteng 96,2% 97,1% 98,2% 97,0%South Africa 80,3% 84,5% 91,2%Access totoiletfacilityGautengCensus1996GautengCensus2001GautengCensus2011QoL 2011Access to aflush toilet95,2% 94,2% 96,3% 96,2%Buckettoilet2,4% 2,2% 1,8% 2,4%No toilet 2,4% 3,6% 1,9% 1,4%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  32. 32. Electricty
  33. 33. South African & GCR trendsGauteng city-region urban and other
  34. 34. South African & GCR trendsGauteng city-region settlement type
  35. 35. South African & GCR trendsGCR hotspot density analysis of businesses
  36. 36. South African & GCR trendsGauteng’s green infrastructure network
  37. 37. South African & GCR trendsGauteng’s grey vs. green infrastructure
  38. 38. Satisfaction with dwelling
  39. 39. Satisfaction with water
  40. 40. Satisfaction with sanitation
  41. 41. Satisfaction with waste removal
  42. 42. Satisfaction with energy sources
  43. 43. Satisfaction with roads
  44. 44. Satisfaction with cost of municipal services
  45. 45. Satisfaction with billing of services
  46. 46. Community
  47. 47. ‘What is the main health problem facing yourcommunity?’2009, HIV/AIDS,492009, Alcohol, 112009, Drugs, 82009, High BP, 72009, TB, 62009, Diabetes, 42009, Teen preg, 42011, HIV/AIDS,282011, Alcohol, 162011, Drugs, 112011, High BP, 72011, TB, 82011, Diabetes, 42011, Teen preg, 520092011
  48. 48. Household access to communications0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%EkurhuleniEmfuleniJohannesburgLesediMerafongMidvaalMogaleRandfonteinTshwaneWestonariaTotalCellphoneTelevisionRadio/music systemPC/laptopLandlineInternet
  49. 49. Values & attitudes
  50. 50. 68 6958 55 56 5640 4112 1011 17 1419172220 2132 28 302543370%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%African2009African2011Coloured2009Coloured2011Indian2009Indian2011White2009White2011DisagreeNeutralAgreeWe arefailing tobuild non-racialism inGautengBlacks and whites will never really trust each other
  51. 51. Indians do not deserve to benefit from affirmative action221520 2229182027496759510102030405060708090100African Indian Coloured WhiteDisagreeNeutralAgreeNote howAfrican andwhiterespondentsleast likely todisagree, mostlikely to agreeor sit in the‘neutral’category
  52. 52. Coloureds are helping to build the new South Africa3642575129302127352823 220%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%African Indian Coloured WhiteDisagreeNeutralAgreeWhen thequestion isaboutcoloureds,Indians andAfricans arehostile whilewhites supportas playing apositive role inSA
  53. 53. ‘Corruption is main threat to our democracy’Total, Stronglyagree, 36Total, Agree, 48Total, Neutral, 9Total, Disagree, 6Total, Stronglydisagree, 1African, Stronglyagree, 36African, Agree, 49African, Neutral, 8 African, Disagree,6African, Stronglydisagree, 1Coloured, Stronglyagree, 37Coloured, Agree,48Coloured, Neutral,9 Coloured,Disagree, 5 Coloured, Stronglydisagree, 1Indian, Stronglyagree, 33Indian, Agree, 51Indian, Neutral,10Indian, Disagree, 5Indian, Stronglydisagree, 0White, Stronglyagree, 40 White, Agree, 41White, Neutral, 11White, Disagree, 7White, Stronglydisagree, 1TotalAfricanColouredIndianWhite
  54. 54. Satisfaction (or not!) with government 09/11Satisfied 09,National, 57Satisfied 09,Provincial, 50Satisfied 09, Localgovt, 40Satisfied 11,National, 39Satisfied 11,Provincial, 34Satisfied 11, Localgovt, 33Neither 09,National, 19Neither 09,Provincial, 21Neither 09, Localgovt, 20Neither 11,National, 19Neither 11,Provincial, 22 Neither 11, Localgovt, 19Dissatsfied 09,National, 24Dissatsfied 09,Provincial, 29Dissatsfied 09,Local govt, 40Dissatisfied 11,National, 37Dissatisfied 11,Provincial, 44Dissatisfied 11,Local govt, 48Satisfied 09Satisfied 11Neither 09Neither 11Dissatsfied 09Dissatisfied 11
  55. 55. Batho Pele• Only 19% believe publicservants act according toBatho Pele principles(explained to respondent)down from 27% in 2009• Only 16% of residents ininformal settlements• 18,2% in Johannesburg• 51% do not think publicservants act according toBatho Pele (57% in 2009) –remainder do not interact• 51,3% in JohannesburgCorruption• 10% had ever beenasked to pay a bribe by apublic servant• 8% of Africans, 16% ofAsian/Indians and 18% ofwhites had been askedfor a bribe• Migrants were not morelikely to have been askedto pay a bribe than non-migrants• 10,8% asked to pay abribe in JohannesburgBatho Pele and Corruption
  56. 56. Economy, incomeetc
  57. 57. Employment destinations
  58. 58. A mobile GCR
  59. 59. Migration & migrants
  60. 60. Migration to Gauteng
  61. 61. Origins of internal migrants to GP (all origin points)
  62. 62. Origins of internal & cross border migrantsProvinces of origin ofinternal migrants (%)Region of origin of crossborder migrants (%)76%12%7%3% 1% 1% 0.30%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%29%19%13%12% 12%9%3% 3%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%
  63. 63. Attitudes to cross border migrants & migrationAttitudes to migration policyAttitudes to migrants• 2.3 % identified ‘foreigners’as the biggest/secondbiggest problem facing theircommunity (0.5% 1stmention, 1.8% 2nd mention)– Compares to 2.7% in 2009– 18th in importance for 1stmention and 14th inimportance for 2nd mention• Attitudes to policyconsistent across all groups– BUT when asked to namebiggest problem incommunity the mosteducated, whites, Indians,and those living in informalhousing were most likely toname ‘foreigners’32%21%47%SendforeignershomeLetforeignersstayOnly allowlegalforeigners
  64. 64. Quality of Life
  65. 65. QoL dimensions – means (2009/2011)Health, 2009, 0.72Health, 2011, 0.72Infrastructure, 2009,0.78Infrastructure, 2011,0.78Dwelling, 2009, 0.71Dwelling, 2011, 0.78Family, 2009, 0.7Family, 2011, 0.69Community, 2009,0.65Community, 2011,0.64Connectivity, 2009,0.62Connectivity, 2011,0.64Global, 2009, 0.56Global, 2011, 0.53Security, 2009, 0.56Security, 2011, 0.58Socio-political, 2009,0.53Socio-political, 2011,0.48Work, 2009, 0.43Work, 2011, 0.42WorkSocio-politicalSecurityGlobalConnectivityCommunityFamilyDwellingInfrastructureHealth
  66. 66. 2009 mean: 6.24 2011 mean: 6.25
  67. 67. QoL means by municipalityRandfontein,Category 1, 6.45Midvaal,Category 1, 6.42Tshwane,Category 1, 6.33Johannesburg,Category 1, 6.32Lesedi, Category1, 6.27Merafong City,Category 1, 6.22Mogale City,Category 1, 6.22Emfuleni,Category 1, 6.21Ekurhuleni,Category 1, 6.10Westonaria,Category 1, 5.77WestonariaEkurhuleniEmfuleniMogale CityMerafong CityLesediJohannesburgTshwaneMidvaalRandfontein
  68. 68. Some conclusionso Mood is very low. This is natural between elections, as part of national (andprovincial and local) mood cycles, but equally clearly, there is a substantial loss offaith in politicians and a belief that corruption is the biggest threat facingdemocracy in Gautengo Delivery looks very positive, if uneven across municipalities. Delivery of servicescan always be improved; but – despite the rash of protests – does not seem to bea major problem.o What we seem to be missing is the energy or spirit or vision that holdstogether our varied and cosmopolitan population – G2055?o We need to make brave commitments re Gauteng. Basic needs messages willnot resonate sufficiently, any more. Commitments about the last RDP house, theend of racial classification, the sign-posts that tell us when Gauteng will be‘normal’ – this is what people want.o Clearly, we face challenges – but they are of the more intangible, less easy toresolve, type. Basic service delivery alone may not be the answer.o Gauteng has delivered on the RDP. But what next?
  69. 69. Thank you

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