1. Forecasting and Planning Case Study
After analyzing Chern’s Transition Probability Matrix, out of the 140 Full Time Sales
Associates, 70 (50%) will remain in their positions, 28 (20%) will exit Chern’s altogether, 21
(15%) will be transferred/demoted to Part Time positions, 7 (5%) will be promoted to
Department Managers, 7 (5%) will be promoted to Buyer positions, and 7 (5%) will be promoted
to Merchandising Managers.
We can also see that out of the 30 part-time sales associates 30%, or 9, will be promoted to full-
time sales associate positons, and out of the 16 department managers 5%, or 0.8, will be
demoted/transferred to full-time sales associate positions. This will give Chern’s a total of 79.8
available full time sales associates.
If Chern’s want to keep its flagship store staffed with 140 full-time sales associates, they will
need to hire 60 new full-time sales associates annually.
Given the results of their hiring process, Chern’s will need to generate a minimum of 1,775
applicants.
Applicants 1,775
Become Job candidates – 30% 1,775 x .30 = 532.5
Receive Job Offers – 15% 532.50 x .15 = 79.87
Accept Job offer – 75% 79.87 x .75 = 59.9
Ensuring that the right people are in place at the right time requires forecasting the firm’s labor demand
and maintaining an awareness of the relevant pipelines for its labor supply. Action plans can then be
developed to address any gaps between the two.
Chern’s current year headcount growth is at 9% which is at the same level as the rate that is expected for
Washington State in the next 10 years. However,since Chern’s is pursuing an aggressive growth strategy
they might encounter some difficulties in the future. Generating 1,775 applicants annually, which equals
to roughly 5 per day, is not going to be an easy task and it will certainly put considerable strain on the
flagship store. In 2012, the average time to fill a position was 33 days. Establishing a staffing timeline
before beginning the staffing initiative ensures that hiring managers, recruiters, and other staffing
specialists know what to expect. Throughout the staffing process,reliable, accurate progress reports
should be prepared and compared to the staffing plan. It could be that some stages of the staffing process
take longer or shorter than projected, and the projected timeline should be adjusted accordingly.
Maintaining progress reports can also help the firm determine whether it is on track to produce the total
number of hires the organization is striving for within the targeted period of time. If the current hiring
pace is found to be too slow, the organization might be able to take steps to speed up the process or recruit
more people than it had initially intended.

2. The positive news as I’ve said is that this position is expected to grow over the next 10 years by around
10% nationally so there will be no shortage at least. However Chern’s turnover rate is double that of the
expected growth rate,at 20%. Given this Chern’s might be forced to reassess just how “aggressively”
they will execute their overall business strategy if they are unable to generate sufficient retention rates
and/or recruitment efforts.
While Chern’s does not utilize temporary or contingent workers of any kind, this is one thing I would
highly recommend. Given the nature of their industry, business demands are seasonalat Chern’s with an
almost guaranteed increase in volume during the holiday season. Also, this will give them an opportunity
to assess temporary workers to whom they can extend full-time offers if they meet or exceed the
necessary requirements of effective employment. This is one process that will enable the organization to
better attain its business goals and execute its strategy.
State and National Trends
United States
Employment
Percent
Change
Projected
Annual Job
Openings 12012 2022
Retail Salespersons 4,447,000 4,881,700 +10% 195,570
Washington
Employment
Percent
Change
Projected
Annual Job
Openings 12010 2020
Retail Salespersons 99,130 107,800 +9% 3,920
1
ProjectedAnnual Job Openings refers to the average annual job openings due to growth and net replacement.