Steve Purkis and I co-authored and then co-presented at P3X in November 2018.

1. Predicting & Influencing With Kanban Metrics
P3X / Nov 2018by: Steve Purkis & Adam Scott

2. Steve
Software Manager & Coach
Serial experimenter
Adam
Kanban Specialist
Federer fan

3. Image: https://pixabay.com/en/child-children-kids-people-life-1099770/
Warning
?
?
Epic Data!
wow 100
confused 11
perplexed 7
baffled 99
befogged 10
befogged 12
Answer 42

4. https://www.pexels.com/photo/boy-crystal-ball-magic-magician-369384/
Predict What?

5. https://www.flickr.com/photos/dullhunk/34390755362
Politics?

6. https://www.flickr.com/photos/jp_reyes/3208760018/
? = Blockchain!
¿
?
Strategy?

7. https://www.flickr.com/photos/superamit/3886055392
Evolution?

8. https://www.pexels.com/photo/boy-crystal-ball-magic-magician-369384/
Scope
TimeCost
● When will this task be done?
● When will we get to this one in the backlog?
● When will our project be delivered?
● How much money will this cost?
● What functionality will we deliver?

9. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Katia,_Irma,_Jose_2017-09-08_1745Z%E2%80%931935Z.jpg
● Manage constraints, expectations and risk.
● Create safety for:
○ Customers, stakeholders, and teams.
● Influence outcomes
Why Predict?

10. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Social_Network_Analysis_Visualization.png
Influence What?
● People
○ Individuals
○ Teams
○ Customers
○ Stakeholders
● Relationships
● Behaviour
● Outcomes
# Relationships = n2

11. https://pixabay.com/en/fractal-art-spiral-mathematical-1475786/
Why Influence?
Influence to…
● Improve a team’s ability to deliver
● Manage constraints, expectations & risk
● Create a positive culture :)
Teams are complex adaptive systems.
There are patterns, but no 2 teams are alike.

12. TransformationalTransactional
Basic Influencing Strategies
Directive
Assertive
Persuasion
Collaborate
Common
Vision
PullPush
Adapted from Mike Brent, 2000 & Harrison.
Tell, or
command.
No choice.
Adversarial.
Logical & rational.
inevitable
conclusions
Common ground.
Shared objectives.
Flexible.
Ask and listen more
than you tell.
Be a part of
something.
Emotional, irrational
appeal.

13. https://www.deviantart.com/arthurblue/art/My-beach-in-a-Moon-crater-205421406
Our Vision
Empower teams to improve the
way they work and deliver value
using Lean Kanban.
Common Vision?

14. Ready
to Spec
Develop Regression Test
(4)
Deploy
(2)
Done
Fast Track Fix
(1)
In Progress Done
Spec
(3)
Ready
(1)
In
Progress
(2)
Done
(3)
Feed the
Cats
Birthday
present for
Henry
Make bread Pickup
parcel
Kiwi
Gymnastics
Wash dishes
Arrange
playdate for
Kiwi
Cook dinner
for kids
Say
“Kanban” in
Japanese
Wash dishes
Feed the
Cats
Pickup
parcel
Arrange
playdate for
Kiwi
Make
Pumpkin
Soup
Make bread
Birthday
present for
Henry
Pay Gas Bill
Pull when
ready
Lean Kanban A WIP-Limited Pull System.
to visualise & improve workflows
Pull when
ready

15. Lean Kanban
A WIP-Limited Pull System.
to visualise & improve workflows
1. Visualise
2. Limit WIP
3. Manage Flow
4. Make Process Policies Explicit
5. Implement Feedback Loops
6. Improve Collaboratively
(using models & the scientific method)
http://www.djaa.com/principles-kanban-method-0
Practices
David J. Anderson
● Start with what you do now.
● Agree to pursue incremental, evolutionary
change.
● Respect the current processes, roles,
responsibilities and titles.
Principles

16. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Falkland_Islands_Penguins_40.jpg
Little’s Law
Avg
Throughput
Work In
Progress
Avg
Cycle Time

17. Ready to Start Develop User Acceptance
Test
Deploy Done
Fast Track Fix In Progress Done
In Progress Ready to
Test
Testing Done
Little’s Law
Throughput =
4/d
24
6d
4/d
Avg Cycle Time = 6 days
WIP = 24
12
2.4d
5/d
Avg Cycle Time = 2.4 days
WIP = 12
6
1.5d
4/d
Avg Cycle Time = 1.5 days
WIP = 6
Throughput =
5/d

18. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Falkland_Islands_Penguins_40.jpg
Avg
Throughput
Work In
Progress
Avg
Cycle Time
Does it actually
work?

19. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Falkland_Islands_Penguins_40.jpg
Avg Throughput
Work In Progress
~5d
Avg Cycle Time
Little’s Law in Action

20. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Falkland_Islands_Penguins_40.jpg
~3.8/d
Avg Throughput
5d
Avg Cycle Time
Work In Progress
~19
Work In Progress
Expect:
Little’s Law in Action

21. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Falkland_Islands_Penguins_40.jpg
3.8/d
Avg Throughput
~20
Work In Progress
5d
Avg Cycle Time
Observe
d
~19
Expected
20 tickets
Approx Avg Daily WIP
Little’s Law in Action

22. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Falkland_Islands_Penguins_40.jpg
Yes, it actually
works!
~3.8/d
Avg Throughput
~20
Work In Progress
~5d
Avg Cycle Time
Observe
d
~19
Expected

23. https://www.pexels.com/photo/adult-african-american-woman-business-businessmen-1056561/
Limit WIP to Promote collaboration
Team (21 people) “In Progress” WIP Limit
2 POs
12 Devs
2 PMs
1 Agile Coach
1 BA
2 QA 7?

24. https://www.pexels.com/photo/adult-african-american-woman-business-businessmen-1056561/
Visualise Flow Metrics to Promote collaboration
When the PO saw this graph,
they realised how distant they
had been.
Shortly after, they become an
active team member, involved
on a daily basis!
60!!

25. Delayed
Feedback Costs
Money

26. Delayed
Feedback Costs
Money
https://www.decisionmechanics.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/delay.pdf
Only a little more
work (≤1%)
A lot more work
(~270%!)
Feedback
Speed
Extra Work
Total
Hours
Fast Low 100
Slow Low 100.4
Fast High 267.9
Slow High 325.7
The effects of design changes and
delays on project costs
study by Williams, T et. al. (1995)
More than
20% extra
just from delay!
(~325% total)

27. Add link here
Bite-Sized Tickets

28. Goldilocks Estimation
Too
BIG
too
small
Just
Right

29. Iname: https://www.deviantart.com/yokokinawa/art/The-day-is-saved-658114950
Look for Flow Potential

30. Iname: https://www.deviantart.com/yokokinawa/art/The-day-is-saved-658114950
Look for opportunities to improve flow
To do Develop Regression Test
(4)
Deploy
(2)
Done
Spec
(3)
Ready
(1)
In
Progress
(2)
Done
(3)
In
Progress
Done

31. Stable Systems
For Reliable
Predictions

32. Standard Deviation

33. Control Chart #1
Date →
Delivery:
~12d
Avg Cycle Time
~11d
Standard Deviation

34. Control Chart #2
Date →
Delivery:
~1d
Avg Cycle Time
0.8d
Standard Deviation

35. When Standard Deviation is
low, predictions are more
certain. £400k spread
£60k spread

36. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Katia,_Irma,_Jose_2017-09-08_1745Z%E2%80%931935Z.jpg
How to Predict?

37. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Katia,_Irma,_Jose_2017-09-08_1745Z%E2%80%931935Z.jpg
It Depends…
What you’re trying to predict
Why you’re doing the prediction
When you’re predicting
How much will this project
cost?
How big is this Epic?
When will I get to this feature
in the backlog?
When will this ticket be
done?

38. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Katia,_Irma,_Jose_2017-09-08_1745Z%E2%80%931935Z.jpg
How big is this project?
Why: so we can proactively manage scope and
risks to avoid spending more money than we
have.
When: it depends…

39. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Katia,_Irma,_Jose_2017-09-08_1745Z%E2%80%931935Z.jpg
image adapted from: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cone_of_Uncertainty.jpg
Pessimistic
Optimistic
0.25x -
0.5x -
0.67x -
0.8x -
1.0x -
1.25x -
1.5x -
2x -
4x -
Time Steve McConnell, Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art
WAG
Deterministic +
Probability
Keep alert!
Estimate
Variability
(effort, cost,
features)
The Cone of Uncertainty

40. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:K2,_Mount_Godwin_Austen,_Chogori,_Savage_Mountain.jpg
“Estimation is very difficult, perhaps
impossible, and often misused.”
- Ron Jeffries
https://ronjeffries.com/xprog/articles/the-noestimates-movement/
Estimating

41. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:K2,_Mount_Godwin_Austen,_Chogori,_Savage_Mountain.jpg
Estimating is
Analysis
You can’t
Analyse
Everything
!!
Disorder
Complicated
Obvious
Complex
Chaos

42. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:K2,_Mount_Godwin_Austen,_Chogori,_Savage_Mountain.jpg
Do You Really Need to
Estimate?

43. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:K2,_Mount_Godwin_Austen,_Chogori,_Savage_Mountain.jpg
Estimating Epics
# tickets
Epic Forecast Done Remain
Ads 5 1 4
Caching 5 0 5
PDP 10 6 4
PLP 7 2 5
Search 10 3 7
Migration 50 12 38
Basket 8 4 4
Checkout 5 2 3
Total 100 30 70MigrationSearch
How Many Bite Sized Tickets
are in each Epic?
Key Risk:
How Certain?
PLP
Certain
Very
Certain
Uncertain
Add % Contingency?
Big = maybe
risky
Monitor
Change!
Low
Multiplier
High
Multiplier
Very Certain 1.0x 1.0x
Certain 0.8x 1.25x
Uncertain 0.5x 2x
Very Uncertain 0.25x 4x

44. Project Estimate
We can’t afford
this!

45. (ie: reduce scope)
Look For
Opportunities To
Simplify

46. Add link here
Epic Progress
Highlight areas of risk, and Influence
decisions with forecasts, eg:
What’s should we prioritise next?
Where can we simplify?

47. https://www.pexels.com/photo/laughing-women-sitting-in-front-of-table-doing-high-five-clap-1484584/
Celebrate!

48. https://www.pexels.com/photo/laughing-women-sitting-in-front-of-table-doing-high-five-clap-1484584/
Influence
● Helped customer to see improved value for money
● Motivated team by seeing the effects of continuous
improvement initiatives
85
85
!!
Celebrate!

49. https://www.pexels.com/photo/laughing-women-sitting-in-front-of-table-doing-high-five-clap-1484584/
1 Day Cycle Time
Target agreed Nov 16.
3.8/d
Avg Throughput
~22
Work In Progress
5d ±5
Avg Cycle Time
Before
8/d
Avg Throughput
~9
Work In Progress
1d ±0.8
Avg Cycle Time
After
Celebrate!

50. https://www.pexels.com/photo/laughing-women-sitting-in-front-of-table-doing-high-five-clap-1484584/
Now it’s your turn! ;-)
We’re using Kanban metrics to…
● Improve our team’s ability to deliver
● Manage constraints, expectations & risk
● Create a positive culture :)
steve.purkis@inviqa.com
adam.scott@inviqa.com