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US SOCIAL
NETWORK
USERSMid-2013 Forecast and
Comparative Estimates
OCTOBER 2013
Alison McCarthy
Contributors: Andres Leal, Monica Peart, Martín Utreras, Jeffrey Vasapolli, Haixia Wang
Read this on
eMarketer for iPad
US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: MID-2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES	 ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED	2
CONTENTS
2	 Executive Summary
3	 US Social Network Users
4	 US Facebook Users
7	 US Mobile Phone Facebook Users
8	 US Twitter Users
10	 US Mobile Phone Twitter Users
11	 US Blog Readers and Writers
12	 Comparative Estimates
14	Conclusions
14	 Appendix: Methodology and Definitions
15	 Related eMarketer Reports
15	 Editorial and Production Contributors
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
eMarketer estimates that 163.5 million people in the
US will be regular social network users in 2013.This
audience is nearing full saturation. More than two out
of three internet users will access social platforms at
least once per month, and growth will be in the low
single digits starting this year.
Facebook remains the No. 1 social network in the US.
Nearly nine out of 10 people who log on to social sites
will regularly visit this network in 2013. Penetration is
high, and new user gains will be minimal in the coming
years. With 22.5% of social networkers accessingTwitter
at least monthly this year, use of the social platform will
be less common, though still quite significant. Growth,
which will come from a much smaller user base, will be
in the double digits through 2015. Smartphone adoption
will continue to drive mobile phone usage of Facebook,
Twitter and social networks in general through 2017.
Young adults will make up the largest portion of the US
social network, Facebook andTwitter populations. And
while Hispanic internet users will claim the biggest share
of social network and Facebook users, black web users
will have the highest percentage of people who access
Twitter. Hispanic internet users will grow the fastest in all
three categories.
eMarketer has revised our forecasts for US social
network, Facebook andTwitter users by gender, as well
as for mobile phone Facebook users. We have also
included new projections for US Facebook andTwitter
users broken down by race/ethnicity and estimates for
mobile phoneTwitter users.
KEY QUESTIONS
■■ How many US social network, Facebook andTwitter
users will there be between 2013 and 2017?
■■ How many people will use their mobile phone to
access Facebook,Twitter and social networks in
general in the coming years?
■■ How do age, race/ethnicity, and gender shape social
network, Facebook andTwitter usage patterns?
■■ How many US residents will read and update blogs
between 2013 and 2017?
millions and % of population
US Social Network Users and Penetration, 2012-2017
2012
157.3
50%
2013
163.5
2014
169.5
2015
174.9
2016
179.4
55%
2017
183.8
56%
Social network users % of population
Note: internet users who use a social network site via any device at least
once per month
Source: eMarketer, Feb 2013; confirmed and republished, Aug 2013
151532 www.eMarketer.com
53%52% 54%
US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: MID-2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES	 ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED	3
US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS
In April 2013, eMarketer released our annual forecast
for US social network users, and we have confirmed
many of these projections during our midyear update.
eMarketer estimates that in 2013, 163.5 million people
in the US—more than two-thirds of all internet
users—will access a social network at least once per
month. By 2017, 56.3% of the country’s population will
log on to social sites.
Social network user penetration is quite high in the US
and is not expected to grow dramatically.This year, the
social audience will increase by 4.0%. Gains in users
closely reflect the overall growth of the country’s internet
population and will primarily come from new users in the
younger and older age groups.
Nearly 100 million people, or 61.1% of social networkers,
will access social sites via mobile phone at least once
per month in 2013, and almost all US residents who do
so will use a smartphone.The US smartphone social
audience will rise 19.4% this year and maintain
double-digit growth throughout the forecast period. By
2017, smartphone social network users will account for
87.3% of people logging on to social platforms, or nearly
half of the US population.
Younger adults will continue to be the largest social
networking audience in the US. In 2013, 18-to-34-year-old
social networkers will number 60.5 million, or 37.0% of
the total. Adults in the 35-to-54 age group will also
make up a sizeable portion, accounting for just less than
one-third of the social population. Social network user
growth in the US will near maturity in 2013 for all ages,
though children under 12 and adults 65 and older will post
double-digit growth into 2014 and 2017, respectively—
boosted by their small user bases.
Non-Hispanic whites will continue to claim largest
portion of US social networkers throughout the forecast
period, though the share will get smaller as Asian and
Hispanic users grow in number.The US Hispanic social
network audience will continue to expand substantially.
Percentage gains will come in at 9.4% in both 2013 and
2014 and will be higher than overall social network user
growth throughout the forecast period. Hispanic internet
users, followed by black web users (through 2016),
will have the highest social network user penetration
through 2017.
Mothers continue to use social platforms heavily.This
year, 83.6% of mothers online will use a social network
at least once per month. Penetration among this
group is high, and growth is expected to be below 2%
through 2017.
US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS BY GENDER
eMarketer revised our forecast for US social networkers
by gender based on new data that indicates a wider gap of
social platform use among male and female internet users.
This year, 71.6% of women who go online will regularly
access social networks, compared with 62.5% of men.
% of internet users in each group
US Social Network User Penetration, by Gender,
2012-2017
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Female 70.5% 71.6% 72.5% 73.1% 73.5% 74.1%
Male 61.5% 62.5% 63.5% 64.3% 65.2% 66.0%
Total 66.2% 67.2% 68.1% 68.8% 69.4% 70.1%
Note: internet users who use social networks via any device at least once
per month
Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013
161556 www.eMarketer.com
This updated penetration rate has altered our total
number of male and female social network users.This
year, 89.5 million women and 74.1 million men will log
on to a social site at least once per month, equating
to respective shares of 54.7% and 45.3%.This split
is expected to remain relatively stable throughout the
forecast period.
millions
US Social Network Users, by Gender, 2012-2017
2012
86.2
71.1
157.3
2013
89.5
74.1
163.5
2014
92.5
76.9
169.5
2015
95.1
79.8
174.9
2016
97.2
82.1
179.4
2017
99.3
84.5
183.8
Female Male
Note: internet users who use social networks via any device at least once
per month; numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding
Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013
161553 www.eMarketer.com
US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: MID-2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES	 ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED	4
% of total
US Social Network User Share, by Gender, 2012-2017
2012
54.8%
45.2%
2013
54.7%
45.3%
2014
54.6%
45.4%
2015
54.4%
45.6%
2016
54.2%
45.8%
2017
54.0%
46.0%
Female Male
Note: internet users who use a social network site via any device at least
once per month
Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013
161557 www.eMarketer.com
Due to its lower penetration rate, the male social network
audience will experience somewhat faster gains through
2017.This year, the number of men accessing social sites
will rise 4.2%, compared with a 3.8% growth rate for
women. By the end of the forecast period, increases will
be below 3% for both genders.
% change
US Social Network User Growth, by Gender, 2012-2017
2012
8.2%
4.8%
6.7%
2013
3.8%
4.2%
4.0%
2014
3.4%
3.9%
3.6%
2015
2.8%
3.7%
3.2%
2016
2.2%
3.0%
2.6%
2017
2.1%
2.9%
2.5%
Female Male Total
Note: internet users who use social networks via any device at least once
per month
Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013
161554 www.eMarketer.com
US FACEBOOK USERS
Facebook will continue to be the top social network
in the US. Nearly nine out of 10 visitors to social sites
will access the social platform regularly. Facebook
penetration is very high, and growth rates are
expected to be below 4% between 2013 and 2017.
Like the US social networking audience, younger
people make up the largest segment of the Facebook
population.The 12-to-34 age group will account for more
than half of all residents accessing the social platform
this year, and we expect percentage gains to drop off
substantially for people of all ages as Facebook usage
approaches saturation.
Mothers will account for around one-fifth of the adult
US Facebook audience through 2017, and more than
three-quarters will use the social network this year. Like
overall Facebook users, penetration among mothers is
high and will no longer increase dramatically.
US FACEBOOK USERS BY GENDER
Based on new data, eMarketer updated our forecast
for US Facebookers by gender to reflect a wider gap in
usage between male and female internet users.This year,
nearly two-thirds of women who go online will log on to
Facebook, while 56.1% of male internet users will access
the site at least once per month.
% of internet users in each group
US Facebook User Penetration, by Gender, 2012-2017
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Female 64.4% 64.3% 63.7% 63.6% 62.7% 62.7%
Male 54.5% 56.1% 57.6% 58.3% 60.2% 60.9%
Total 59.6% 60.3% 60.7% 61.0% 61.5% 61.8%
Note: internet users who access their Facebook account via any device at
least once per month
Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013
161561 www.eMarketer.com
US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: MID-2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES	 ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED	5
This will translate to a larger audience size for the female
Facebook population.This year, there will be 80.2 million
female and 66.6 million male Facebook users, giving each
gender respective shares of 54.7% and 45.3%. Portions
will closely reflect that of men and women who access
social platforms.
millions
US Facebook Users, by Gender, 2012-2017
2012
78.6
62.9
141.6
2013
80.2
66.6
146.8
2014
81.3
69.8
151.1
2015
82.8
72.4
155.1
2016
82.9
75.8
158.7
2017
83.9
78.1
162.0
Female Male
Note: internet users who access their Facebook account via any device at
least once per month; numbers may not add up to total due to rounding
Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013
161559 www.eMarketer.com
% of total
US Facebook User Share, by Gender, 2012-2017
2012
55.6%
44.4%
2013
54.7%
45.3%
2014
53.8%
46.2%
2015
53.4%
46.6%
2016
52.2%
47.8%
2017
51.8%
48.2%
Female Male
Note: internet users who access their Facebook account via any device at
least once per month
Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013
161565 www.eMarketer.com
However, Facebook’s strong female skew will wane
between 2013 and 2017, as eMarketer projects that
the number of men using the service will rise nearly
three times faster than women this year. We expect
percentage gains to flatten throughout the forecast period
for both genders. Estimated increases in growth rates
for females in 2015 and males in 2016 are based on US
population growth.
% change
US Facebook User Growth, by Gender, 2012-2017
7.8%
6.6%
7.1%
5.8%
2.0%
3.7%
5.0%
1.3%
3.0%
3.6%
1.8%
2.6%
4.8%
0.2%
2.3%
2.9%
1.2%
2.1%
Male Female Total
Note: internet users who access their Facebook account via any device at
least once per month
Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013
161560 www.eMarketer.com
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
US FACEBOOK USERS BY RACE/ETHNICITY
For the first time, eMarketer has included projections
for US Facebook users by race/ethnicity. Because of the
Facebook audience’s high saturation and large size, this
ethnic breakdown closely resembles that of the country’s
social networkers.
US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: MID-2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES	 ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED	6
Among US internet users, Hispanics, who skew younger,
are most likely to use Facebook. eMarketer expects
61.0% of Hispanics with online access to log on to
the social network at least once per month this year.
Facebook user penetration rates among Asian and black
web users are only slightly lower, at 60.8% and 60.6%,
respectively, while 60.1% of non-Hispanic white internet
users will log on to the social platform.
% of internet users in each group
US Facebook User Penetration, by Race/Ethnicity,
2012-2017
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Non-Hispanic
—Asian 60.3% 60.8% 61.7% 62.7% 63.7% 64.6%
—Black 60.0% 60.6% 60.7% 60.4% 61.1% 60.3%
—White 59.7% 60.1% 60.4% 60.7% 61.1% 61.4%
—Other* 56.3% 57.3% 58.0% 58.3% 58.5% 58.8%
Hispanic** 59.0% 61.0% 62.1% 62.7% 62.9% 64.1%
Total 59.6% 60.3% 60.7% 61.0% 61.5% 61.8%
Note: internet users who access their Facebook account via any device at
least once per month; *includes Native Americans, Alaska Natives,
Hawaiian and Pacific Islanders, and bi- and multiracial individuals; **could
be of any race
Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013
161526 www.eMarketer.com
The number of US Hispanic Facebook users will continue
to increase the fastest of any race or ethnicity. eMarketer
expects this group to expand by 9.8% this year.The Asian
Facebook population will also post strong gains, while
blacks and whites will have more saturated audiences—
percentage gains for both groups will be below 4% for
the entirety of the forecast period.
With an audience size of 95.4 million and a share of
65.0%, whites will represent the majority of US Facebook
users. Hispanics will have the second-largest share, with
15.5% of the total. eMarketer expects the former to lose
share throughout the forecast period as the Asian and
Hispanic Facebook populations grow.
millions, % change and % of total
US Facebook Users, by Race/Ethnicity, 2012-2017
Non-Hispanic
White
—% change
—% of total
Black
—% change
—% of total
Asian
—% change
—% of total
Other*
—% change
—% of total
Hispanic**
—% change
—% of total
Total
—% change
2012
93.6
5.5%
66.1%
17.1
7.1%
12.1%
7.3
9.2%
5.2%
2.9
12.6%
2.1%
20.7
13.3%
14.7%
141.6
7.1%
2013
95.4
2.0%
65.0%
17.7
3.7%
12.1%
7.7
5.7%
5.3%
3.2
10.7%
2.2%
22.8
9.8%
15.5%
146.8
3.7%
2014
96.7
1.4%
64.0%
18.2
3.0%
12.1%
8.1
4.9%
5.4%
3.5
9.5%
2.3%
24.6
8.0%
16.3%
151.1
3.0%
2015
97.8
1.1%
63.0%
18.7
2.6%
12.1%
8.5
4.6%
5.5%
3.9
10.1%
2.5%
26.3
6.9%
17.0%
155.1
2.6%
2016
99.1
1.4%
62.4%
19.1
2.3%
12.1%
8.8
4.2%
5.6%
4.1
6.0%
2.6%
27.6
4.8%
17.4%
158.7
2.3%
2017
100.2
1.1%
61.8%
19.5
2.1%
12.1%
9.2
3.9%
5.7%
4.3
5.2%
2.7%
28.8
4.5%
17.8%
162.0
2.1%
Note: internet users who access their Facebook account via any device at
least once per month; *includes Native Americans, Alaska Natives,
Hawaiian and Pacific Islanders, and bi- and multiracial individuals; **could
be of any race
Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013
161399 www.eMarketer.com
US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: MID-2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES	 ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED	7
US MOBILE PHONE
FACEBOOK USERS
eMarketer has revised our estimates for US mobile
phone Facebook users upward from our April 2013
forecast. New data indicates that growth of the
country’s mobile Facebook audience in 2012 was even
stronger than expected.
Following an increase of nearly 70% in 2012, the number
of US mobile phone Facebook users will rise 19.9%
this year. Consumers are still adopting smartphones at
a rapid pace, and percentage gains will remain robust
throughout the forecast period. Between 2013 and 2017,
the US mobile phone Facebook audience will rise from
99.2 million to 154.7 million.
US Mobile Phone Facebook Users, 2011-2017
Mobile phone
Facebook users
(millions)
—% change
—% of mobile
phone users
—% of population
2011
49.3
55.4%
20.8%
15.8%
2012
82.7
67.9%
34.2%
26.3%
2013
99.2
19.9%
40.3%
31.4%
2014
115.2
16.1%
46.0%
36.1%
2015
129.2
12.2%
50.8%
40.2%
2016
141.6
9.6%
55.0%
43.7%
2017
154.7
9.3%
59.4%
47.4%
Note: CAGR (2011-2017)=21.0%; mobile phone users of any age who
access their Facebook account via mobile phone at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013
161460 www.eMarketer.com
Smartphone users account for nearly all people accessing
Facebook via mobile phone. eMarketer now forecasts
that there will be 98.6 million smartphone Facebookers in
the US this year—70.4% of smartphone users and nearly
one-third of the country’s population.The expansion of the
smartphone Facebook audience will drive the growth of
the social network’s mobile phone user base throughout
the forecast period.
US Smartphone Facebook Users, 2011-2017
Smartphone Facebook
users (millions)
—% change
—% of mobile phone
Facebook users
—% of smartphone users
—% of population
2011
48.3
71.6%
98.0%
52.0%
15.5%
2012
82.1
70.0%
99.2%
67.6%
26.1%
2013
98.6
20.1%
99.4%
70.4%
31.2%
2014
114.5
16.1%
99.4%
71.6%
35.9%
2015
128.6
12.3%
99.5%
72.2%
40.0%
2016
140.9
9.6%
99.5%
72.7%
43.5%
2017
154.1
9.3%
99.6%
74.3%
47.2%
Note: CAGR (2011-2017)=21.3%; smartphone users of any age who access
their Facebook account via smartphone through a mobile browser or
application at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013
161461 www.eMarketer.com
Because the US smartphone Facebook audience is larger
than previously estimated, eMarketer also increased our
projection for the smartphone user share of US mobile
phone Facebookers—67.2% this year. Only 0.4% of
people who access the social platform via mobile will
do so through a feature phone, a share that will remain
consistent through 2017.
% of total Facebook users
US Mobile Phone Facebook User Penetration,
by Phone Type, 2011-2017
Mobile phone
Facebook users
—Smartphone
—Feature phone
2011
37.3%
36.5%
0.8%
2012
58.5%
58.0%
0.5%
2013
67.6%
67.2%
0.4%
2014
76.2%
75.8%
0.4%
2015
83.3%
82.9%
0.4%
2016
89.2%
88.8%
0.4%
2017
95.5%
95.1%
0.4%
Note: mobile phone users of any age who access their Facebook account
via mobile phone at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013
161463 www.eMarketer.com
US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: MID-2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES	 ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED	8
US TWITTER USERS
eMarketer forecasts that there will be 36.8 million US
Twitter users in 2013, accounting for over one-fifth of
the social network audience and more than one-tenth
of the country’s population. By 2015, more than one
in four social networkers will regularly accessTwitter.
The number ofTwitter users in the US will rise 15.6%
this year, with a growing smartphone user population
and buzz around newsworthy events fueling increases.
Percentage gains will be in the high single digits
beginning in 2016 and will be stronger than those of the
US Facebook and social network audiences throughout
the forecast period.
This year, nearly nine out of 10Twitter users will be ages
18 and older.The 18-to-34 age group will claim 46.1% of
the total, while 35- to 44-year-olds will account for 16.8%.
Twitter users of all ages will post double-digit increases
this year. Growth rates for the number of users between
the ages of 12 and 54 will sit between 11.1% and 14.4%.
Percentage gains will be higher for children under 12
and adults 55 and older, but their small user bases will
boost this.
Mothers make up a substantial part of the USTwitter
population, though Facebook usage is much more
common. More than one in five mothers who use social
platforms and 18.0% of those online will log on toTwitter
regularly this year. By the end of the forecast period,
one-quarter of mother social networkers will access
Twitter, compared with 88.6% using Facebook.
USTWITTER USERS BY GENDER
eMarketer revised our expectations for male and female
Twitter users beginning in 2012. New data shows that last
year, the number of women accessing the social network
did not grow as fast as previously forecast.
We now estimate that the amount of femaleTwitter
users increased 10.5% in 2012, while the male audience
rose 48.1%.This year, growth will come in at 16.3% and
14.9%, respectively.
% change
US Twitter User Growth, by Gender, 2012-2017
48.1%
10.5%
27.4%
14.9%
16.3%
15.6%
12.0%
13.8%12.9%
9.5%
11.3% 10.3%
8.5%
10.2% 9.3%
8.1%
8.5%
8.3%
Male Female Total
Note: internet users who access their Twitter account via any device at
least once per month
Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013
161568 www.eMarketer.com
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
eMarketer previously projected that femaleTwitter users
would outnumber that of males by 1 million in 2013.
However, the maleTwitter population remains larger.
More than 19 million men will access the social platform
this year, while female users will total 17.7 million.
The total USTwitter audience will be 52.0% male and
48.0% female.The shares between genders will even
out throughout the forecast period, though later than
expected in our earlier forecast.
millions
US Twitter Users, by Gender, 2012-2017
2012
16.7
15.2
31.9
2013
19.2
17.7
36.8
2014
21.5
20.1
41.6
2015
23.5
22.4
45.9
2016
25.5
24.7
50.2
2017
27.5
26.8
54.3
Male Female
Note: internet users who access their Twitter account via any device at
least once per month; numbers may not add up to total due to rounding
Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013
161567 www.eMarketer.com
US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: MID-2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES	 ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED	9
% of total
US Twitter User Share, by Gender, 2012-2017
2012
52.3%
47.7%
2013
52.0%
48.0%
2014
51.6%
48.4%
2015
51.2%
48.8%
2016
50.8%
49.2%
2017
50.7%
49.3%
Male Female
Note: internet users who access their Twitter account via any device at
least once per month
Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013
161573 www.eMarketer.com
Male internet users are still more likely to log on to
Twitter. Just over 14% of women who go online will have
aTwitter account, compared with 16.2% of male web
users. By 2017, approximately one in five internet users
from each gender demographic will access the social
network at least once per month.
% of internet users in each group
US Twitter User Penetration, by Gender, 2012-2017
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Male 14.4% 16.2% 17.7% 18.9% 20.2% 21.5%
Female 12.4% 14.2% 15.8% 17.2% 18.7% 20.0%
Total 13.4% 15.1% 16.7% 18.1% 19.4% 20.7%
Note: internet users who access their Twitter account via any device at
least once per month
Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013
161571 www.eMarketer.com
USTWITTER USERS BY RACE/ETHNICITY
In eMarketer’s new estimates for USTwitter users by
race/ethnicity, we predict that black internet users will
have the highest usage ofTwitter through 2017.This year,
more than one in four people in this demographic will
regularly access the social platform. We expect this to
surpass one in three by 2016.
Hispanics will also overindex inTwitter usage throughout
the forecast period. Nearly 20% of Hispanic internet
users will log on to the social network in 2013.
% of internet users in each group
US Twitter User Penetration, by Race/Ethnicity,
2012-2017
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Non-Hispanic
—Black 23.5% 26.6% 29.2% 31.3% 33.8% 35.5%
—White 11.0% 12.1% 13.3% 14.2% 15.1% 16.0%
—Asian 9.5% 10.8% 12.1% 13.3% 14.5% 15.7%
—Other* 20.3% 22.2% 23.9% 24.7% 26.3% 28.0%
Hispanic** 16.4% 19.6% 21.7% 23.4% 25.4% 27.8%
Total 13.4% 15.1% 16.7% 18.1% 19.4% 20.7%
Note: internet users who access their Twitter account via any device at
least once per month; *includes Native Americans, Alaska Natives,
Hawaiian and Pacific Islanders, and bi- and multiracial individuals; **could
be of any race
Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013
161550 www.eMarketer.com
Like Facebook and social networking in general,
the HispanicTwitter audience will have the strongest
gains throughout the forecast period.This year, the
number of Hispanics on the social platform will increase
26.9%.The AsianTwitter user base will also have
stronger-than-average growth, at 18.8%.The Asian and
HispanicTwitter populations are set to see double-digit
rises through 2017.
US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: MID-2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES	 ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED	10
Whites make up the majority of US residents onTwitter,
with an audience size of 19.2 million and a portion of
52.0% this year. Blacks and Hispanics are forecast to
have shares of 21.0% and 19.9%, respectively. Asian
Twitter users will make up the remaining 3.7%. Whites
were early adopters of the social network and have a
more saturated audience; this population will have slower
growth than the other races/ethnicities and will increase
11.3% in 2013.
millions, % change and % of total
US Twitter Users, by Race/Ethnicity, 2012-2017
Non-Hispanic
White
—% change
—% of total
Black
—% change
—% of total
Asian
—% change
—% of total
Other*
—% change
—% of total
Hispanic**
—% change
—% of total
Total
—% change
2012
17.2
22.9%
54.0%
6.7
33.8%
21.0%
1.1
31.1%
3.6%
1.1
31.4%
3.3%
5.8
33.3%
18.1%
31.9
27.4%
2013
19.2
11.3%
52.0%
7.7
15.7%
21.0%
1.4
18.8%
3.7%
1.3
19.1%
3.4%
7.3
26.9%
19.9%
36.8
15.6%
2014
21.2
10.7%
51.0%
8.8
13.0%
21.0%
1.6
15.9%
3.8%
1.5
16.2%
3.5%
8.6
17.3%
20.7%
41.6
12.9%
2015
22.9
8.2%
50.0%
9.7
10.5%
21.1%
1.8
13.2%
3.9%
1.7
13.5%
3.6%
9.8
14.5%
21.4%
45.9
10.3%
2016
24.6
7.1%
49.0%
10.6
9.4%
21.1%
2.0
12.1%
4.0%
1.9
12.3%
3.7%
11.1
13.3%
22.2%
50.2
9.3%
2017
26.1
6.1%
48.0%
11.5
8.4%
21.1%
2.2
11.0%
4.1%
2.1
11.2%
3.8%
12.5
12.1%
23.0%
54.3
8.3%
Note: internet users who access Twitter account via any device at least
once per month; *includes Native Americans, Alaska Natives, Hawaiian and
Pacific Islanders, and bi- and multiracial individuals; **could be of any race
Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013
161474 www.eMarketer.com
US MOBILE PHONE
TWITTER USERS
For the first time, eMarketer has forecast US mobile
phoneTwitter users.This year, 28.0 million people
will accessTwitter via mobile at least once per
month.We predict this will rise to 43.3 million by
2017. Double-digit growth rates are expected through
2015 and will remain strong throughout the forecast
period as mobile content usage becomes even
more common.
US Mobile Phone Twitter Users, 2011-2017
Mobile phone Twitter
users (millions)
—% change
—% of mobile
phone users
—% of population
2011
13.3
168.7%
5.6%
4.3%
2012
23.0
73.1%
9.5%
7.3%
2013
28.0
22.0%
11.4%
8.8%
2014
32.7
16.7%
13.0%
10.2%
2015
36.6
12.1%
14.4%
11.4%
2016
40.3
9.9%
15.7%
12.4%
2017
43.3
7.5%
16.6%
13.3%
Note: CAGR (2011-2017)=21.8%; mobile phone users of any age who
access their Twitter account via mobile phone at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013
161464 www.eMarketer.com
Like mobile phone Facebookers, the overwhelming
majority of the mobileTwitter audience will use
smartphones to visit the social network. More than 70%
of this group will own such a device, compared with
feature phone users, which will tally a share of 5.7%.
It’s slightly more common forTwitter users to turn to
their smartphone or feature phone to log on to the social
network than it is for Facebook users, who up until
recently have tended to use PCs as their primary means
of access.The former also offers easier access to feature
phone users, who can tweet via SMS. Facebook’s more
sophisticated interface tends to be limited for feature
phone owners.
% of total Twitter users
US Mobile Phone Twitter User Penetration,
by Phone Type, 2011-2017
Mobile phone
Twitter users
—Smartphone
—Feature phone
2011
53.0%
44.5%
8.5%
2012
72.0%
65.5%
6.5%
2013
76.0%
70.3%
5.7%
2014
81.0%
76.1%
4.9%
2015
84.0%
79.6%
4.4%
2016
86.0%
82.3%
3.7%
2017
87.0%
84.6%
2.4%
Note: mobile phone users of any age who access their Twitter account via
mobile phone at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013
161468 www.eMarketer.com
US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: MID-2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES	 ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED	11
There will be 25.9 million smartphoneTwitter users in the
US this year.The expansion of the smartphone audience
will drive growth and allow theTwitter population among
this group to reach 42.1 million by 2017. At 18.5%, people
who log on toTwitter via such a device will represent a
substantial portion of total smartphone owners this year.
When it comes to the overall US population,Twitter usage
via smartphone is less common. Just 8.2% of residents
will regularly access the platform this way in 2013.
US Smartphone Twitter Users, 2011-2017
Smartphone Twitter
users (millions)
—% change
—% of mobile phone
Twitter users
—% of smartphone
users
—% of population
2011
11.1
347.4%
84.0%
12.0%
3.6%
2012
20.9
87.5%
91.0%
17.2%
6.7%
2013
25.9
24.0%
92.5%
18.5%
8.2%
2014
30.7
18.5%
94.0%
19.2%
9.6%
2015
34.7
13.1%
94.8%
19.5%
10.8%
2016
38.6
11.0%
95.7%
19.9%
11.9%
2017
42.1
9.2%
97.2%
20.3%
12.9%
Note: CAGR (2011-2017)=24.8%; smartphone users of any age who access
their Twitter account via smartphone through a mobile browser or
application at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013
161465 www.eMarketer.com
US BLOG READERS AND WRITERS
At 73.6 million, the number of blog readers in the
US will be half the size of the Facebook audience
and double the size of theTwitter population. Blogs
continue to attract a massive number of readers,
though readership will maintain slow growth
through 2017.
Those who update blogs at least once a month are much
smaller in number. Just fewer than 11% of all internet
users will blog this year. eMarketer does not expect the
US blogger audience to grow significantly, and nearly all
blog writers will be over the age of 18.
Mothers will represent 19.2% of all US adult blog readers
and 17.4% of bloggers ages 18 and older.These shares
are expected to remain flat through 2017, as mothers
are more likely to adopt newer social networks such as
Pinterest and Instagram.
US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: MID-2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES	 ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED	12
COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES
More than half of the sources reporting figures for
US social network users as a percentage of internet
users in 2012 estimated penetration between 62.0%
and 71.0%. InSites Consulting and Netpop Research
both found higher rates.The former counts internet
users 15 and over, while the latter includes the
18-and-older online audience. comScore reported that
nearly all residents with online access logged on to
social platforms.The company bases its estimates
on a panel-based measurement system that tracks
internet traffic of selected users who have monitoring
software installed on their computers. Active US
internet and social networkers likely make up a
significant share of these panels.
% of internet users
Comparative Estimates: US Social Network User
Penetration, 2012 & 2013
Pew Internet & American
Life Project, Aug 2013
eMarketer, Aug 2013
Deloitte*, May 2013
comScore Inc.**, May 2012
InSites Consulting, Sep 2012
Netpop Research, April 2012
Allstate Corporation,
June 2012
GlobalWebIndex, Feb 2013
Adobe, Oct 2012
Ofcom, Dec 2012
Ipsos OTX, Jan 2013
2012
67.0%
66.2%
-
99.0%
79.0%
79.0%
78.0%
71.0%
69.0%
66.0%
62.0%
2013
72.0%
67.2%
31.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Usage
Use
Use via any
device at least
once per month
Use via any device daily
Unique visitors
Use
Use
Used in past month
Use
Use
Have set up a
page or profile
Use via any device at
least 1 hour per day
Age
18+
All
ages
14+
-
15+
18+
18+
-
-
18-64
18-64
Note: *includes chat and forums; **data is for April
Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013; various, as noted, 2012 & 2013
163621 www.eMarketer.com
Estimates for the number of US Facebook users in
2012 and 2013 span a broad range. GlobalWebIndex
has the lowest forecast among all of the sources for
both years due to its sample of users 16 to 64, while
comScore Media Metrix’s and Nielsen’s panel-based
measurement systems likely contribute to their higher
figures for 2012. Socialbakers.com reported the highest
number of Facebook users for last year. However, this
source defines “monthly active users” the same way
Facebook does—that is, “a registered Facebook user
who logged in and visited Facebook through a website
or a mobile device, or took an action to share content or
activity with his or her Facebook friends or connections
via a third-party website that is integrated with Facebook,
in the last 30 days as of the date of measurement.”
eMarketer includes only people who have accessed
Facebook’s actual site at least once in the past month.
eMarketer has the lowest Facebook user penetration
rate as a percentage of internet users for 2012 and 2013
among all of the sources reporting figures. While we
count Facebook users of any age, many other sources
include users 15 or 18 and older. In addition, many
of these sources poll users through online surveys.
eMarketer believes that users who participate in online
surveys are more likely to be active social networkers
than those polled in person or over the phone.
Another contribution to higher penetration rates from
sources such as Epsilon, AYTM Market Research, Pew
Internet & American Life Project, Broadcom and uSamp is
the inclusion of those who “use Facebook,” as opposed
to those who “regularly use Facebook” or “use Facebook
once per month.”The first definition leaves room for a
broader audience and higher likelihood of an individual
being counted as a Facebook user.
US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: MID-2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES	 ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED	13
Comparative Estimates: US Facebook Users and
Penetration, 2011-2013
Facebook users (millions)
comScore Media Metrix, March 2013 (1)
Socialbakers.com, April 2013
eMarketer, Aug 2013 (2)
GlobalWebIndex, April 2013 (3)
Nielsen, Nov 2012 (4)
Facebook user penetration (% of internet users)
CreditDonkey, March 2013 (5)
AYTM Market Research, Jan 2013
GlobalWebIndex, April 2013 (3)
eMarketer, Aug 2013 (2)
Broadcom, Dec 2012 (6)
uSamp, April 2012 (5)
InSites Consulting, Sep 2012 (7)
Jefferies, Sep 2012
Nielsen, Dec 2012 (8)
Pew Internet & American Life Project, Feb 2013 (5)
Epsilon, Dec 2012
Allstate Corporation, June 2012 (9)
2011
156.0
-
132.1
103.7
135.6
-
-
-
57.2%
-
81.2%
-
-
-
-
61.0%
-
2012
158.9
166.0
141.6
99.5
153.4
-
82.2%
-
59.6%
87.0%
81.0%
71.0%
70.0%
69.0%
67.0%
62.0%
62.0%
2013
174.8
163.1
146.8
113.4
-
90.9%
83.7%
67.0%
60.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Note: (1) includes desktop and mobile; (2) internet users who access their
Facebook account via any device at least once per month; (3) ages 16-64;
used or contributed in the past month; (4) unique visitors; home and work
locations; (5) ages 18+; (6) ages 18+; accessed via computer or mobile; (7)
ages 15+; Facebook members; (8) home and work locations; includes
usage via apps; (9) ages 18+; used in the past month
Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013; various, as noted, 2012 & 2013
162463 www.eMarketer.com
Estimates for the total number ofTwitter users in the US
last year vary greatly. With 22.9 million, GlobalWebIndex
reported the lowest figure, likely due to its exclusion
of users 15 and under and 65 and older.The research
firm’s projections for 2013 align more with eMarketer’s.
Like their forecasts for Facebook users, comScore’s and
Nielsen’s highTwitter user predictions are likely boosted
by panel-based measurement systems.
Sources reported thatTwitter users as a percentage of
the online population for 2012 spanned from 8.0% to
33.0%. In the midrange, the majority of sources such
as Allstate Corporation, Pew Internet & American Life
Project, GlobalWebIndex and InSites Consulting include
internet users ages 15, 16, or 18 and older. eMarketer
counts internet users of all ages, which leads to a lower
estimate. Higher estimates from Broadcom and uSamp
are elevated by their respective broad definitions of those
who accessTwitter “via computer or mobile” and those
who “use” the platform.
CreditDonkey also definesTwitter users as those who
“use” the social network.The source’s penetration rate
of 43.9% for 2013 stands out among other estimates.
CreditDonkey arrived at its figure through an online
survey of people ages 18 and older, which skews
forecasts upward.
Comparative Estimates: US Twitter Users and
Penetration, 2011-2013
Twitter users (millions)
eMarketer,
Aug 2013
GlobalWebIndex,
April 2013
comScore Inc.*,
April 2012
Nielsen, Dec 2012
Twitter user penetration (% of internet users)
CreditDonkey,
March 2013
Pew Internet &
American Life
Project, Aug 2013
eMarketer,
Aug 2013
uSamp, April 2012
Broadcom,
Dec 2012
InSites Consulting,
Sep 2012
GlobalWebIndex,
Feb 2013
comScore Inc.**,
Sep 2012
Allstate Corporation,
June 2012
Epsilon, Dec 2012
2011
25.1
-
-
-
-
12.0%
10.8%
33.2%
-
-
-
17.6%
-
7.0%
2012
31.9
22.9
40.3
37.0
-
16.0%
13.4%
33.0%
31.0%
25.0%
20.0%
19.4%
16.0%
8.0%
15.1%
2013
36.8
36.7
-
-
43.9%
18.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
All
ages
Age
All
ages
16-64
-
-
18+
18+
-
18+
15+
16-64
-
18+
-
Access their Twitter
account via any device
at least once per month
Access their Twitter
account via any device
at least once per month
Usage
Used or contributed
in the past month
Unique visitors
Unique PC visitors
Use
Use
Use
Accessed via
computer or mobile
Are members
Used or contributed
in the past month
Unique visitors
Used in the past
month
Use
Note: *home, work and university locations; data is for March;
**data is for Oct
Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013; various, as noted, 2012 & 2013
162475 www.eMarketer.com
US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: MID-2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES	 ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED	14
CONCLUSIONS
US social network user penetration is high among
the online audience.The majority of people who will
access social sites regularly already do so. Growth will be
relatively slow through 2017.
Facebook remains the dominant social networking
site in the US. Facebook users will account for nearly
nine out of 10 people on social platforms this year,
while just over one in five social networkers will access
Twitter regularly.
Non-Hispanic whites will continue to make up the
largest portion of the US social network, Facebook
andTwitter audiences. However, their shares are
expected to decrease as Asian and Hispanic users grow
in number.
The number of Hispanic social network, Facebook
andTwitter users will rise the fastest throughout
the forecast period. Hispanics who go online will have
the highest percentages of social platform users and
Facebookers, while black internet users will have the
largest portion of people who accessTwitter.
There will be more female social network and
Facebook users in the US throughout the forecast
period.The amount of men who log on toTwitter
will outnumber that of females in audience size
and penetration.
The US mobile phone social network, mobile phone
Facebook, and mobile phoneTwitter audiences will
continue robust growth. Smartphone adoption is driving
increases and boosting frequency of access.
APPENDIX: METHODOLOGY
AND DEFINITIONS
eMarketer uses the following methodology and
definitions to develop our social network, Facebook
andTwitter user forecasts:
METHODOLOGY: SOCIAL NETWORK,
FACEBOOKANDTWITTER USERS
To create our US social network user forecast, eMarketer
analyzed survey data, website traffic data and trend data
from a variety of research firms, regulatory agencies
and company releases. We employ a rigorous process
of evaluating historical data dating back to 2008, which
yields a broad and deep picture of the changes in social
network usage over the years.
Social network, Facebook andTwitter users are defined
differently by various researchers, with some asking if
people “ever” use Facebook,Twitter or social networks,
others asking if respondents “maintain or update
their profile,” and still others attempting to gauge the
frequency of usage by employing the use of web traffic
tools to count visits or visitors.
Certain measurement methodologies, specifically
website traffic and the addition of total accounts, can
overstate social network user audiences. For Facebook,
the user population can include site access driven
by Facebook “likes.” For both Facebook andTwitter,
audiences can be overstated by including unintended
access driven by forwarded links. Similarly, adding up the
total number of Facebook orTwitter accounts also carries
a bias for inflated estimates, as this methodology includes
corporate accounts and single users who maintain
multiple accounts.
Where possible, eMarketer normalized the data to get a
picture of users of any age accessing sites on a monthly
basis via any device.This was done by taking into account
variations in research methodologies across different
firms, such as the sample size and how the survey was
conducted, as these factors can affect results.
Finally, we constructed a model that projects future usage,
taking into account historical usage rates and factors
that might affect usage growth, such as government
regulation, population and demographic statistics, internet
user growth, and mobile device adoption.
US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: MID-2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES	 ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED	15
DEFINITIONS
Blog readers and writers: Internet users who read or
update a blog at least once per month.
Facebook users: Internet users who access their
Facebook account via any device at least once per month.
Mobile phone Facebook users: Mobile phone users of
any age who access their Facebook account via mobile
phone at least once per month.
Mobile phone social network users: Mobile phone
users who have a profile and access social network sites
from a mobile browser or an installed application at least
once per month.
Mobile phoneTwitter users: Mobile phone users of any
age who access theirTwitter account via mobile phone at
least once per month.
Mother social network users: Internet users who use
a social network site via any device at least once per
month; mothers defined as females ages 18 and older
with children under 18 in the household.
Social network users: Internet users who use a social
network site via any device at least once per month.
Social network sites are defined as sites where the
primary activities involve creating a profile and interacting
with a network of contacts by sharing status updates,
comments, photos or other content.
Twitter users: Internet users who access theirTwitter
account via any device at least once per month.
RELATED EMARKETER REPORTS
Facebook Commerce: Evolving, Not Extinct
The Global Social Network Landscape:
A Country-by-Country Guide to Social Network Usage
UK Social Network Users: 2013 Forecast and
Comparative Estimates
Western Europe Social Network Usage: Facebook
Dominates an Increasingly Busy Market
Worldwide Social Network Users: 2013 Forecast and
Comparative Estimates
EDITORIAL AND
PRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS
Cliff Annicelli	 Senior Editor
Kaitlin Carlin	 Copy Editor
Joanne DiCamillo	 Senior Production Artist
Stephanie Gehrsitz	 Senior Production Artist
Dana Hill	 Director of Production
Nicole Perrin	 Associate Editorial Director
Heather Price	 Copy Editor
Allie Smith	 Director of Charts
US SOCIAL NETWORK USAGE BY DEMOGRAPHICS

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US SOCIAL NETWORK USAGE BY DEMOGRAPHICS

  • 1. US SOCIAL NETWORK USERSMid-2013 Forecast and Comparative Estimates OCTOBER 2013 Alison McCarthy Contributors: Andres Leal, Monica Peart, Martín Utreras, Jeffrey Vasapolli, Haixia Wang Read this on eMarketer for iPad
  • 2. US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: MID-2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 2 CONTENTS 2 Executive Summary 3 US Social Network Users 4 US Facebook Users 7 US Mobile Phone Facebook Users 8 US Twitter Users 10 US Mobile Phone Twitter Users 11 US Blog Readers and Writers 12 Comparative Estimates 14 Conclusions 14 Appendix: Methodology and Definitions 15 Related eMarketer Reports 15 Editorial and Production Contributors EXECUTIVE SUMMARY eMarketer estimates that 163.5 million people in the US will be regular social network users in 2013.This audience is nearing full saturation. More than two out of three internet users will access social platforms at least once per month, and growth will be in the low single digits starting this year. Facebook remains the No. 1 social network in the US. Nearly nine out of 10 people who log on to social sites will regularly visit this network in 2013. Penetration is high, and new user gains will be minimal in the coming years. With 22.5% of social networkers accessingTwitter at least monthly this year, use of the social platform will be less common, though still quite significant. Growth, which will come from a much smaller user base, will be in the double digits through 2015. Smartphone adoption will continue to drive mobile phone usage of Facebook, Twitter and social networks in general through 2017. Young adults will make up the largest portion of the US social network, Facebook andTwitter populations. And while Hispanic internet users will claim the biggest share of social network and Facebook users, black web users will have the highest percentage of people who access Twitter. Hispanic internet users will grow the fastest in all three categories. eMarketer has revised our forecasts for US social network, Facebook andTwitter users by gender, as well as for mobile phone Facebook users. We have also included new projections for US Facebook andTwitter users broken down by race/ethnicity and estimates for mobile phoneTwitter users. KEY QUESTIONS ■■ How many US social network, Facebook andTwitter users will there be between 2013 and 2017? ■■ How many people will use their mobile phone to access Facebook,Twitter and social networks in general in the coming years? ■■ How do age, race/ethnicity, and gender shape social network, Facebook andTwitter usage patterns? ■■ How many US residents will read and update blogs between 2013 and 2017? millions and % of population US Social Network Users and Penetration, 2012-2017 2012 157.3 50% 2013 163.5 2014 169.5 2015 174.9 2016 179.4 55% 2017 183.8 56% Social network users % of population Note: internet users who use a social network site via any device at least once per month Source: eMarketer, Feb 2013; confirmed and republished, Aug 2013 151532 www.eMarketer.com 53%52% 54%
  • 3. US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: MID-2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 3 US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS In April 2013, eMarketer released our annual forecast for US social network users, and we have confirmed many of these projections during our midyear update. eMarketer estimates that in 2013, 163.5 million people in the US—more than two-thirds of all internet users—will access a social network at least once per month. By 2017, 56.3% of the country’s population will log on to social sites. Social network user penetration is quite high in the US and is not expected to grow dramatically.This year, the social audience will increase by 4.0%. Gains in users closely reflect the overall growth of the country’s internet population and will primarily come from new users in the younger and older age groups. Nearly 100 million people, or 61.1% of social networkers, will access social sites via mobile phone at least once per month in 2013, and almost all US residents who do so will use a smartphone.The US smartphone social audience will rise 19.4% this year and maintain double-digit growth throughout the forecast period. By 2017, smartphone social network users will account for 87.3% of people logging on to social platforms, or nearly half of the US population. Younger adults will continue to be the largest social networking audience in the US. In 2013, 18-to-34-year-old social networkers will number 60.5 million, or 37.0% of the total. Adults in the 35-to-54 age group will also make up a sizeable portion, accounting for just less than one-third of the social population. Social network user growth in the US will near maturity in 2013 for all ages, though children under 12 and adults 65 and older will post double-digit growth into 2014 and 2017, respectively— boosted by their small user bases. Non-Hispanic whites will continue to claim largest portion of US social networkers throughout the forecast period, though the share will get smaller as Asian and Hispanic users grow in number.The US Hispanic social network audience will continue to expand substantially. Percentage gains will come in at 9.4% in both 2013 and 2014 and will be higher than overall social network user growth throughout the forecast period. Hispanic internet users, followed by black web users (through 2016), will have the highest social network user penetration through 2017. Mothers continue to use social platforms heavily.This year, 83.6% of mothers online will use a social network at least once per month. Penetration among this group is high, and growth is expected to be below 2% through 2017. US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS BY GENDER eMarketer revised our forecast for US social networkers by gender based on new data that indicates a wider gap of social platform use among male and female internet users. This year, 71.6% of women who go online will regularly access social networks, compared with 62.5% of men. % of internet users in each group US Social Network User Penetration, by Gender, 2012-2017 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Female 70.5% 71.6% 72.5% 73.1% 73.5% 74.1% Male 61.5% 62.5% 63.5% 64.3% 65.2% 66.0% Total 66.2% 67.2% 68.1% 68.8% 69.4% 70.1% Note: internet users who use social networks via any device at least once per month Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013 161556 www.eMarketer.com This updated penetration rate has altered our total number of male and female social network users.This year, 89.5 million women and 74.1 million men will log on to a social site at least once per month, equating to respective shares of 54.7% and 45.3%.This split is expected to remain relatively stable throughout the forecast period. millions US Social Network Users, by Gender, 2012-2017 2012 86.2 71.1 157.3 2013 89.5 74.1 163.5 2014 92.5 76.9 169.5 2015 95.1 79.8 174.9 2016 97.2 82.1 179.4 2017 99.3 84.5 183.8 Female Male Note: internet users who use social networks via any device at least once per month; numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013 161553 www.eMarketer.com
  • 4. US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: MID-2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 4 % of total US Social Network User Share, by Gender, 2012-2017 2012 54.8% 45.2% 2013 54.7% 45.3% 2014 54.6% 45.4% 2015 54.4% 45.6% 2016 54.2% 45.8% 2017 54.0% 46.0% Female Male Note: internet users who use a social network site via any device at least once per month Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013 161557 www.eMarketer.com Due to its lower penetration rate, the male social network audience will experience somewhat faster gains through 2017.This year, the number of men accessing social sites will rise 4.2%, compared with a 3.8% growth rate for women. By the end of the forecast period, increases will be below 3% for both genders. % change US Social Network User Growth, by Gender, 2012-2017 2012 8.2% 4.8% 6.7% 2013 3.8% 4.2% 4.0% 2014 3.4% 3.9% 3.6% 2015 2.8% 3.7% 3.2% 2016 2.2% 3.0% 2.6% 2017 2.1% 2.9% 2.5% Female Male Total Note: internet users who use social networks via any device at least once per month Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013 161554 www.eMarketer.com US FACEBOOK USERS Facebook will continue to be the top social network in the US. Nearly nine out of 10 visitors to social sites will access the social platform regularly. Facebook penetration is very high, and growth rates are expected to be below 4% between 2013 and 2017. Like the US social networking audience, younger people make up the largest segment of the Facebook population.The 12-to-34 age group will account for more than half of all residents accessing the social platform this year, and we expect percentage gains to drop off substantially for people of all ages as Facebook usage approaches saturation. Mothers will account for around one-fifth of the adult US Facebook audience through 2017, and more than three-quarters will use the social network this year. Like overall Facebook users, penetration among mothers is high and will no longer increase dramatically. US FACEBOOK USERS BY GENDER Based on new data, eMarketer updated our forecast for US Facebookers by gender to reflect a wider gap in usage between male and female internet users.This year, nearly two-thirds of women who go online will log on to Facebook, while 56.1% of male internet users will access the site at least once per month. % of internet users in each group US Facebook User Penetration, by Gender, 2012-2017 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Female 64.4% 64.3% 63.7% 63.6% 62.7% 62.7% Male 54.5% 56.1% 57.6% 58.3% 60.2% 60.9% Total 59.6% 60.3% 60.7% 61.0% 61.5% 61.8% Note: internet users who access their Facebook account via any device at least once per month Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013 161561 www.eMarketer.com
  • 5. US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: MID-2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 5 This will translate to a larger audience size for the female Facebook population.This year, there will be 80.2 million female and 66.6 million male Facebook users, giving each gender respective shares of 54.7% and 45.3%. Portions will closely reflect that of men and women who access social platforms. millions US Facebook Users, by Gender, 2012-2017 2012 78.6 62.9 141.6 2013 80.2 66.6 146.8 2014 81.3 69.8 151.1 2015 82.8 72.4 155.1 2016 82.9 75.8 158.7 2017 83.9 78.1 162.0 Female Male Note: internet users who access their Facebook account via any device at least once per month; numbers may not add up to total due to rounding Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013 161559 www.eMarketer.com % of total US Facebook User Share, by Gender, 2012-2017 2012 55.6% 44.4% 2013 54.7% 45.3% 2014 53.8% 46.2% 2015 53.4% 46.6% 2016 52.2% 47.8% 2017 51.8% 48.2% Female Male Note: internet users who access their Facebook account via any device at least once per month Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013 161565 www.eMarketer.com However, Facebook’s strong female skew will wane between 2013 and 2017, as eMarketer projects that the number of men using the service will rise nearly three times faster than women this year. We expect percentage gains to flatten throughout the forecast period for both genders. Estimated increases in growth rates for females in 2015 and males in 2016 are based on US population growth. % change US Facebook User Growth, by Gender, 2012-2017 7.8% 6.6% 7.1% 5.8% 2.0% 3.7% 5.0% 1.3% 3.0% 3.6% 1.8% 2.6% 4.8% 0.2% 2.3% 2.9% 1.2% 2.1% Male Female Total Note: internet users who access their Facebook account via any device at least once per month Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013 161560 www.eMarketer.com 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 US FACEBOOK USERS BY RACE/ETHNICITY For the first time, eMarketer has included projections for US Facebook users by race/ethnicity. Because of the Facebook audience’s high saturation and large size, this ethnic breakdown closely resembles that of the country’s social networkers.
  • 6. US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: MID-2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 6 Among US internet users, Hispanics, who skew younger, are most likely to use Facebook. eMarketer expects 61.0% of Hispanics with online access to log on to the social network at least once per month this year. Facebook user penetration rates among Asian and black web users are only slightly lower, at 60.8% and 60.6%, respectively, while 60.1% of non-Hispanic white internet users will log on to the social platform. % of internet users in each group US Facebook User Penetration, by Race/Ethnicity, 2012-2017 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Non-Hispanic —Asian 60.3% 60.8% 61.7% 62.7% 63.7% 64.6% —Black 60.0% 60.6% 60.7% 60.4% 61.1% 60.3% —White 59.7% 60.1% 60.4% 60.7% 61.1% 61.4% —Other* 56.3% 57.3% 58.0% 58.3% 58.5% 58.8% Hispanic** 59.0% 61.0% 62.1% 62.7% 62.9% 64.1% Total 59.6% 60.3% 60.7% 61.0% 61.5% 61.8% Note: internet users who access their Facebook account via any device at least once per month; *includes Native Americans, Alaska Natives, Hawaiian and Pacific Islanders, and bi- and multiracial individuals; **could be of any race Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013 161526 www.eMarketer.com The number of US Hispanic Facebook users will continue to increase the fastest of any race or ethnicity. eMarketer expects this group to expand by 9.8% this year.The Asian Facebook population will also post strong gains, while blacks and whites will have more saturated audiences— percentage gains for both groups will be below 4% for the entirety of the forecast period. With an audience size of 95.4 million and a share of 65.0%, whites will represent the majority of US Facebook users. Hispanics will have the second-largest share, with 15.5% of the total. eMarketer expects the former to lose share throughout the forecast period as the Asian and Hispanic Facebook populations grow. millions, % change and % of total US Facebook Users, by Race/Ethnicity, 2012-2017 Non-Hispanic White —% change —% of total Black —% change —% of total Asian —% change —% of total Other* —% change —% of total Hispanic** —% change —% of total Total —% change 2012 93.6 5.5% 66.1% 17.1 7.1% 12.1% 7.3 9.2% 5.2% 2.9 12.6% 2.1% 20.7 13.3% 14.7% 141.6 7.1% 2013 95.4 2.0% 65.0% 17.7 3.7% 12.1% 7.7 5.7% 5.3% 3.2 10.7% 2.2% 22.8 9.8% 15.5% 146.8 3.7% 2014 96.7 1.4% 64.0% 18.2 3.0% 12.1% 8.1 4.9% 5.4% 3.5 9.5% 2.3% 24.6 8.0% 16.3% 151.1 3.0% 2015 97.8 1.1% 63.0% 18.7 2.6% 12.1% 8.5 4.6% 5.5% 3.9 10.1% 2.5% 26.3 6.9% 17.0% 155.1 2.6% 2016 99.1 1.4% 62.4% 19.1 2.3% 12.1% 8.8 4.2% 5.6% 4.1 6.0% 2.6% 27.6 4.8% 17.4% 158.7 2.3% 2017 100.2 1.1% 61.8% 19.5 2.1% 12.1% 9.2 3.9% 5.7% 4.3 5.2% 2.7% 28.8 4.5% 17.8% 162.0 2.1% Note: internet users who access their Facebook account via any device at least once per month; *includes Native Americans, Alaska Natives, Hawaiian and Pacific Islanders, and bi- and multiracial individuals; **could be of any race Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013 161399 www.eMarketer.com
  • 7. US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: MID-2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 7 US MOBILE PHONE FACEBOOK USERS eMarketer has revised our estimates for US mobile phone Facebook users upward from our April 2013 forecast. New data indicates that growth of the country’s mobile Facebook audience in 2012 was even stronger than expected. Following an increase of nearly 70% in 2012, the number of US mobile phone Facebook users will rise 19.9% this year. Consumers are still adopting smartphones at a rapid pace, and percentage gains will remain robust throughout the forecast period. Between 2013 and 2017, the US mobile phone Facebook audience will rise from 99.2 million to 154.7 million. US Mobile Phone Facebook Users, 2011-2017 Mobile phone Facebook users (millions) —% change —% of mobile phone users —% of population 2011 49.3 55.4% 20.8% 15.8% 2012 82.7 67.9% 34.2% 26.3% 2013 99.2 19.9% 40.3% 31.4% 2014 115.2 16.1% 46.0% 36.1% 2015 129.2 12.2% 50.8% 40.2% 2016 141.6 9.6% 55.0% 43.7% 2017 154.7 9.3% 59.4% 47.4% Note: CAGR (2011-2017)=21.0%; mobile phone users of any age who access their Facebook account via mobile phone at least once per month Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013 161460 www.eMarketer.com Smartphone users account for nearly all people accessing Facebook via mobile phone. eMarketer now forecasts that there will be 98.6 million smartphone Facebookers in the US this year—70.4% of smartphone users and nearly one-third of the country’s population.The expansion of the smartphone Facebook audience will drive the growth of the social network’s mobile phone user base throughout the forecast period. US Smartphone Facebook Users, 2011-2017 Smartphone Facebook users (millions) —% change —% of mobile phone Facebook users —% of smartphone users —% of population 2011 48.3 71.6% 98.0% 52.0% 15.5% 2012 82.1 70.0% 99.2% 67.6% 26.1% 2013 98.6 20.1% 99.4% 70.4% 31.2% 2014 114.5 16.1% 99.4% 71.6% 35.9% 2015 128.6 12.3% 99.5% 72.2% 40.0% 2016 140.9 9.6% 99.5% 72.7% 43.5% 2017 154.1 9.3% 99.6% 74.3% 47.2% Note: CAGR (2011-2017)=21.3%; smartphone users of any age who access their Facebook account via smartphone through a mobile browser or application at least once per month Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013 161461 www.eMarketer.com Because the US smartphone Facebook audience is larger than previously estimated, eMarketer also increased our projection for the smartphone user share of US mobile phone Facebookers—67.2% this year. Only 0.4% of people who access the social platform via mobile will do so through a feature phone, a share that will remain consistent through 2017. % of total Facebook users US Mobile Phone Facebook User Penetration, by Phone Type, 2011-2017 Mobile phone Facebook users —Smartphone —Feature phone 2011 37.3% 36.5% 0.8% 2012 58.5% 58.0% 0.5% 2013 67.6% 67.2% 0.4% 2014 76.2% 75.8% 0.4% 2015 83.3% 82.9% 0.4% 2016 89.2% 88.8% 0.4% 2017 95.5% 95.1% 0.4% Note: mobile phone users of any age who access their Facebook account via mobile phone at least once per month Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013 161463 www.eMarketer.com
  • 8. US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: MID-2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 8 US TWITTER USERS eMarketer forecasts that there will be 36.8 million US Twitter users in 2013, accounting for over one-fifth of the social network audience and more than one-tenth of the country’s population. By 2015, more than one in four social networkers will regularly accessTwitter. The number ofTwitter users in the US will rise 15.6% this year, with a growing smartphone user population and buzz around newsworthy events fueling increases. Percentage gains will be in the high single digits beginning in 2016 and will be stronger than those of the US Facebook and social network audiences throughout the forecast period. This year, nearly nine out of 10Twitter users will be ages 18 and older.The 18-to-34 age group will claim 46.1% of the total, while 35- to 44-year-olds will account for 16.8%. Twitter users of all ages will post double-digit increases this year. Growth rates for the number of users between the ages of 12 and 54 will sit between 11.1% and 14.4%. Percentage gains will be higher for children under 12 and adults 55 and older, but their small user bases will boost this. Mothers make up a substantial part of the USTwitter population, though Facebook usage is much more common. More than one in five mothers who use social platforms and 18.0% of those online will log on toTwitter regularly this year. By the end of the forecast period, one-quarter of mother social networkers will access Twitter, compared with 88.6% using Facebook. USTWITTER USERS BY GENDER eMarketer revised our expectations for male and female Twitter users beginning in 2012. New data shows that last year, the number of women accessing the social network did not grow as fast as previously forecast. We now estimate that the amount of femaleTwitter users increased 10.5% in 2012, while the male audience rose 48.1%.This year, growth will come in at 16.3% and 14.9%, respectively. % change US Twitter User Growth, by Gender, 2012-2017 48.1% 10.5% 27.4% 14.9% 16.3% 15.6% 12.0% 13.8%12.9% 9.5% 11.3% 10.3% 8.5% 10.2% 9.3% 8.1% 8.5% 8.3% Male Female Total Note: internet users who access their Twitter account via any device at least once per month Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013 161568 www.eMarketer.com 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 eMarketer previously projected that femaleTwitter users would outnumber that of males by 1 million in 2013. However, the maleTwitter population remains larger. More than 19 million men will access the social platform this year, while female users will total 17.7 million. The total USTwitter audience will be 52.0% male and 48.0% female.The shares between genders will even out throughout the forecast period, though later than expected in our earlier forecast. millions US Twitter Users, by Gender, 2012-2017 2012 16.7 15.2 31.9 2013 19.2 17.7 36.8 2014 21.5 20.1 41.6 2015 23.5 22.4 45.9 2016 25.5 24.7 50.2 2017 27.5 26.8 54.3 Male Female Note: internet users who access their Twitter account via any device at least once per month; numbers may not add up to total due to rounding Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013 161567 www.eMarketer.com
  • 9. US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: MID-2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 9 % of total US Twitter User Share, by Gender, 2012-2017 2012 52.3% 47.7% 2013 52.0% 48.0% 2014 51.6% 48.4% 2015 51.2% 48.8% 2016 50.8% 49.2% 2017 50.7% 49.3% Male Female Note: internet users who access their Twitter account via any device at least once per month Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013 161573 www.eMarketer.com Male internet users are still more likely to log on to Twitter. Just over 14% of women who go online will have aTwitter account, compared with 16.2% of male web users. By 2017, approximately one in five internet users from each gender demographic will access the social network at least once per month. % of internet users in each group US Twitter User Penetration, by Gender, 2012-2017 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Male 14.4% 16.2% 17.7% 18.9% 20.2% 21.5% Female 12.4% 14.2% 15.8% 17.2% 18.7% 20.0% Total 13.4% 15.1% 16.7% 18.1% 19.4% 20.7% Note: internet users who access their Twitter account via any device at least once per month Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013 161571 www.eMarketer.com USTWITTER USERS BY RACE/ETHNICITY In eMarketer’s new estimates for USTwitter users by race/ethnicity, we predict that black internet users will have the highest usage ofTwitter through 2017.This year, more than one in four people in this demographic will regularly access the social platform. We expect this to surpass one in three by 2016. Hispanics will also overindex inTwitter usage throughout the forecast period. Nearly 20% of Hispanic internet users will log on to the social network in 2013. % of internet users in each group US Twitter User Penetration, by Race/Ethnicity, 2012-2017 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Non-Hispanic —Black 23.5% 26.6% 29.2% 31.3% 33.8% 35.5% —White 11.0% 12.1% 13.3% 14.2% 15.1% 16.0% —Asian 9.5% 10.8% 12.1% 13.3% 14.5% 15.7% —Other* 20.3% 22.2% 23.9% 24.7% 26.3% 28.0% Hispanic** 16.4% 19.6% 21.7% 23.4% 25.4% 27.8% Total 13.4% 15.1% 16.7% 18.1% 19.4% 20.7% Note: internet users who access their Twitter account via any device at least once per month; *includes Native Americans, Alaska Natives, Hawaiian and Pacific Islanders, and bi- and multiracial individuals; **could be of any race Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013 161550 www.eMarketer.com Like Facebook and social networking in general, the HispanicTwitter audience will have the strongest gains throughout the forecast period.This year, the number of Hispanics on the social platform will increase 26.9%.The AsianTwitter user base will also have stronger-than-average growth, at 18.8%.The Asian and HispanicTwitter populations are set to see double-digit rises through 2017.
  • 10. US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: MID-2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 10 Whites make up the majority of US residents onTwitter, with an audience size of 19.2 million and a portion of 52.0% this year. Blacks and Hispanics are forecast to have shares of 21.0% and 19.9%, respectively. Asian Twitter users will make up the remaining 3.7%. Whites were early adopters of the social network and have a more saturated audience; this population will have slower growth than the other races/ethnicities and will increase 11.3% in 2013. millions, % change and % of total US Twitter Users, by Race/Ethnicity, 2012-2017 Non-Hispanic White —% change —% of total Black —% change —% of total Asian —% change —% of total Other* —% change —% of total Hispanic** —% change —% of total Total —% change 2012 17.2 22.9% 54.0% 6.7 33.8% 21.0% 1.1 31.1% 3.6% 1.1 31.4% 3.3% 5.8 33.3% 18.1% 31.9 27.4% 2013 19.2 11.3% 52.0% 7.7 15.7% 21.0% 1.4 18.8% 3.7% 1.3 19.1% 3.4% 7.3 26.9% 19.9% 36.8 15.6% 2014 21.2 10.7% 51.0% 8.8 13.0% 21.0% 1.6 15.9% 3.8% 1.5 16.2% 3.5% 8.6 17.3% 20.7% 41.6 12.9% 2015 22.9 8.2% 50.0% 9.7 10.5% 21.1% 1.8 13.2% 3.9% 1.7 13.5% 3.6% 9.8 14.5% 21.4% 45.9 10.3% 2016 24.6 7.1% 49.0% 10.6 9.4% 21.1% 2.0 12.1% 4.0% 1.9 12.3% 3.7% 11.1 13.3% 22.2% 50.2 9.3% 2017 26.1 6.1% 48.0% 11.5 8.4% 21.1% 2.2 11.0% 4.1% 2.1 11.2% 3.8% 12.5 12.1% 23.0% 54.3 8.3% Note: internet users who access Twitter account via any device at least once per month; *includes Native Americans, Alaska Natives, Hawaiian and Pacific Islanders, and bi- and multiracial individuals; **could be of any race Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013 161474 www.eMarketer.com US MOBILE PHONE TWITTER USERS For the first time, eMarketer has forecast US mobile phoneTwitter users.This year, 28.0 million people will accessTwitter via mobile at least once per month.We predict this will rise to 43.3 million by 2017. Double-digit growth rates are expected through 2015 and will remain strong throughout the forecast period as mobile content usage becomes even more common. US Mobile Phone Twitter Users, 2011-2017 Mobile phone Twitter users (millions) —% change —% of mobile phone users —% of population 2011 13.3 168.7% 5.6% 4.3% 2012 23.0 73.1% 9.5% 7.3% 2013 28.0 22.0% 11.4% 8.8% 2014 32.7 16.7% 13.0% 10.2% 2015 36.6 12.1% 14.4% 11.4% 2016 40.3 9.9% 15.7% 12.4% 2017 43.3 7.5% 16.6% 13.3% Note: CAGR (2011-2017)=21.8%; mobile phone users of any age who access their Twitter account via mobile phone at least once per month Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013 161464 www.eMarketer.com Like mobile phone Facebookers, the overwhelming majority of the mobileTwitter audience will use smartphones to visit the social network. More than 70% of this group will own such a device, compared with feature phone users, which will tally a share of 5.7%. It’s slightly more common forTwitter users to turn to their smartphone or feature phone to log on to the social network than it is for Facebook users, who up until recently have tended to use PCs as their primary means of access.The former also offers easier access to feature phone users, who can tweet via SMS. Facebook’s more sophisticated interface tends to be limited for feature phone owners. % of total Twitter users US Mobile Phone Twitter User Penetration, by Phone Type, 2011-2017 Mobile phone Twitter users —Smartphone —Feature phone 2011 53.0% 44.5% 8.5% 2012 72.0% 65.5% 6.5% 2013 76.0% 70.3% 5.7% 2014 81.0% 76.1% 4.9% 2015 84.0% 79.6% 4.4% 2016 86.0% 82.3% 3.7% 2017 87.0% 84.6% 2.4% Note: mobile phone users of any age who access their Twitter account via mobile phone at least once per month Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013 161468 www.eMarketer.com
  • 11. US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: MID-2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 11 There will be 25.9 million smartphoneTwitter users in the US this year.The expansion of the smartphone audience will drive growth and allow theTwitter population among this group to reach 42.1 million by 2017. At 18.5%, people who log on toTwitter via such a device will represent a substantial portion of total smartphone owners this year. When it comes to the overall US population,Twitter usage via smartphone is less common. Just 8.2% of residents will regularly access the platform this way in 2013. US Smartphone Twitter Users, 2011-2017 Smartphone Twitter users (millions) —% change —% of mobile phone Twitter users —% of smartphone users —% of population 2011 11.1 347.4% 84.0% 12.0% 3.6% 2012 20.9 87.5% 91.0% 17.2% 6.7% 2013 25.9 24.0% 92.5% 18.5% 8.2% 2014 30.7 18.5% 94.0% 19.2% 9.6% 2015 34.7 13.1% 94.8% 19.5% 10.8% 2016 38.6 11.0% 95.7% 19.9% 11.9% 2017 42.1 9.2% 97.2% 20.3% 12.9% Note: CAGR (2011-2017)=24.8%; smartphone users of any age who access their Twitter account via smartphone through a mobile browser or application at least once per month Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013 161465 www.eMarketer.com US BLOG READERS AND WRITERS At 73.6 million, the number of blog readers in the US will be half the size of the Facebook audience and double the size of theTwitter population. Blogs continue to attract a massive number of readers, though readership will maintain slow growth through 2017. Those who update blogs at least once a month are much smaller in number. Just fewer than 11% of all internet users will blog this year. eMarketer does not expect the US blogger audience to grow significantly, and nearly all blog writers will be over the age of 18. Mothers will represent 19.2% of all US adult blog readers and 17.4% of bloggers ages 18 and older.These shares are expected to remain flat through 2017, as mothers are more likely to adopt newer social networks such as Pinterest and Instagram.
  • 12. US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: MID-2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 12 COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES More than half of the sources reporting figures for US social network users as a percentage of internet users in 2012 estimated penetration between 62.0% and 71.0%. InSites Consulting and Netpop Research both found higher rates.The former counts internet users 15 and over, while the latter includes the 18-and-older online audience. comScore reported that nearly all residents with online access logged on to social platforms.The company bases its estimates on a panel-based measurement system that tracks internet traffic of selected users who have monitoring software installed on their computers. Active US internet and social networkers likely make up a significant share of these panels. % of internet users Comparative Estimates: US Social Network User Penetration, 2012 & 2013 Pew Internet & American Life Project, Aug 2013 eMarketer, Aug 2013 Deloitte*, May 2013 comScore Inc.**, May 2012 InSites Consulting, Sep 2012 Netpop Research, April 2012 Allstate Corporation, June 2012 GlobalWebIndex, Feb 2013 Adobe, Oct 2012 Ofcom, Dec 2012 Ipsos OTX, Jan 2013 2012 67.0% 66.2% - 99.0% 79.0% 79.0% 78.0% 71.0% 69.0% 66.0% 62.0% 2013 72.0% 67.2% 31.0% - - - - - - - - Usage Use Use via any device at least once per month Use via any device daily Unique visitors Use Use Used in past month Use Use Have set up a page or profile Use via any device at least 1 hour per day Age 18+ All ages 14+ - 15+ 18+ 18+ - - 18-64 18-64 Note: *includes chat and forums; **data is for April Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013; various, as noted, 2012 & 2013 163621 www.eMarketer.com Estimates for the number of US Facebook users in 2012 and 2013 span a broad range. GlobalWebIndex has the lowest forecast among all of the sources for both years due to its sample of users 16 to 64, while comScore Media Metrix’s and Nielsen’s panel-based measurement systems likely contribute to their higher figures for 2012. Socialbakers.com reported the highest number of Facebook users for last year. However, this source defines “monthly active users” the same way Facebook does—that is, “a registered Facebook user who logged in and visited Facebook through a website or a mobile device, or took an action to share content or activity with his or her Facebook friends or connections via a third-party website that is integrated with Facebook, in the last 30 days as of the date of measurement.” eMarketer includes only people who have accessed Facebook’s actual site at least once in the past month. eMarketer has the lowest Facebook user penetration rate as a percentage of internet users for 2012 and 2013 among all of the sources reporting figures. While we count Facebook users of any age, many other sources include users 15 or 18 and older. In addition, many of these sources poll users through online surveys. eMarketer believes that users who participate in online surveys are more likely to be active social networkers than those polled in person or over the phone. Another contribution to higher penetration rates from sources such as Epsilon, AYTM Market Research, Pew Internet & American Life Project, Broadcom and uSamp is the inclusion of those who “use Facebook,” as opposed to those who “regularly use Facebook” or “use Facebook once per month.”The first definition leaves room for a broader audience and higher likelihood of an individual being counted as a Facebook user.
  • 13. US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: MID-2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 13 Comparative Estimates: US Facebook Users and Penetration, 2011-2013 Facebook users (millions) comScore Media Metrix, March 2013 (1) Socialbakers.com, April 2013 eMarketer, Aug 2013 (2) GlobalWebIndex, April 2013 (3) Nielsen, Nov 2012 (4) Facebook user penetration (% of internet users) CreditDonkey, March 2013 (5) AYTM Market Research, Jan 2013 GlobalWebIndex, April 2013 (3) eMarketer, Aug 2013 (2) Broadcom, Dec 2012 (6) uSamp, April 2012 (5) InSites Consulting, Sep 2012 (7) Jefferies, Sep 2012 Nielsen, Dec 2012 (8) Pew Internet & American Life Project, Feb 2013 (5) Epsilon, Dec 2012 Allstate Corporation, June 2012 (9) 2011 156.0 - 132.1 103.7 135.6 - - - 57.2% - 81.2% - - - - 61.0% - 2012 158.9 166.0 141.6 99.5 153.4 - 82.2% - 59.6% 87.0% 81.0% 71.0% 70.0% 69.0% 67.0% 62.0% 62.0% 2013 174.8 163.1 146.8 113.4 - 90.9% 83.7% 67.0% 60.3% - - - - - - - - Note: (1) includes desktop and mobile; (2) internet users who access their Facebook account via any device at least once per month; (3) ages 16-64; used or contributed in the past month; (4) unique visitors; home and work locations; (5) ages 18+; (6) ages 18+; accessed via computer or mobile; (7) ages 15+; Facebook members; (8) home and work locations; includes usage via apps; (9) ages 18+; used in the past month Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013; various, as noted, 2012 & 2013 162463 www.eMarketer.com Estimates for the total number ofTwitter users in the US last year vary greatly. With 22.9 million, GlobalWebIndex reported the lowest figure, likely due to its exclusion of users 15 and under and 65 and older.The research firm’s projections for 2013 align more with eMarketer’s. Like their forecasts for Facebook users, comScore’s and Nielsen’s highTwitter user predictions are likely boosted by panel-based measurement systems. Sources reported thatTwitter users as a percentage of the online population for 2012 spanned from 8.0% to 33.0%. In the midrange, the majority of sources such as Allstate Corporation, Pew Internet & American Life Project, GlobalWebIndex and InSites Consulting include internet users ages 15, 16, or 18 and older. eMarketer counts internet users of all ages, which leads to a lower estimate. Higher estimates from Broadcom and uSamp are elevated by their respective broad definitions of those who accessTwitter “via computer or mobile” and those who “use” the platform. CreditDonkey also definesTwitter users as those who “use” the social network.The source’s penetration rate of 43.9% for 2013 stands out among other estimates. CreditDonkey arrived at its figure through an online survey of people ages 18 and older, which skews forecasts upward. Comparative Estimates: US Twitter Users and Penetration, 2011-2013 Twitter users (millions) eMarketer, Aug 2013 GlobalWebIndex, April 2013 comScore Inc.*, April 2012 Nielsen, Dec 2012 Twitter user penetration (% of internet users) CreditDonkey, March 2013 Pew Internet & American Life Project, Aug 2013 eMarketer, Aug 2013 uSamp, April 2012 Broadcom, Dec 2012 InSites Consulting, Sep 2012 GlobalWebIndex, Feb 2013 comScore Inc.**, Sep 2012 Allstate Corporation, June 2012 Epsilon, Dec 2012 2011 25.1 - - - - 12.0% 10.8% 33.2% - - - 17.6% - 7.0% 2012 31.9 22.9 40.3 37.0 - 16.0% 13.4% 33.0% 31.0% 25.0% 20.0% 19.4% 16.0% 8.0% 15.1% 2013 36.8 36.7 - - 43.9% 18.0% - - - - - - - All ages Age All ages 16-64 - - 18+ 18+ - 18+ 15+ 16-64 - 18+ - Access their Twitter account via any device at least once per month Access their Twitter account via any device at least once per month Usage Used or contributed in the past month Unique visitors Unique PC visitors Use Use Use Accessed via computer or mobile Are members Used or contributed in the past month Unique visitors Used in the past month Use Note: *home, work and university locations; data is for March; **data is for Oct Source: eMarketer, Aug 2013; various, as noted, 2012 & 2013 162475 www.eMarketer.com
  • 14. US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: MID-2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 14 CONCLUSIONS US social network user penetration is high among the online audience.The majority of people who will access social sites regularly already do so. Growth will be relatively slow through 2017. Facebook remains the dominant social networking site in the US. Facebook users will account for nearly nine out of 10 people on social platforms this year, while just over one in five social networkers will access Twitter regularly. Non-Hispanic whites will continue to make up the largest portion of the US social network, Facebook andTwitter audiences. However, their shares are expected to decrease as Asian and Hispanic users grow in number. The number of Hispanic social network, Facebook andTwitter users will rise the fastest throughout the forecast period. Hispanics who go online will have the highest percentages of social platform users and Facebookers, while black internet users will have the largest portion of people who accessTwitter. There will be more female social network and Facebook users in the US throughout the forecast period.The amount of men who log on toTwitter will outnumber that of females in audience size and penetration. The US mobile phone social network, mobile phone Facebook, and mobile phoneTwitter audiences will continue robust growth. Smartphone adoption is driving increases and boosting frequency of access. APPENDIX: METHODOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS eMarketer uses the following methodology and definitions to develop our social network, Facebook andTwitter user forecasts: METHODOLOGY: SOCIAL NETWORK, FACEBOOKANDTWITTER USERS To create our US social network user forecast, eMarketer analyzed survey data, website traffic data and trend data from a variety of research firms, regulatory agencies and company releases. We employ a rigorous process of evaluating historical data dating back to 2008, which yields a broad and deep picture of the changes in social network usage over the years. Social network, Facebook andTwitter users are defined differently by various researchers, with some asking if people “ever” use Facebook,Twitter or social networks, others asking if respondents “maintain or update their profile,” and still others attempting to gauge the frequency of usage by employing the use of web traffic tools to count visits or visitors. Certain measurement methodologies, specifically website traffic and the addition of total accounts, can overstate social network user audiences. For Facebook, the user population can include site access driven by Facebook “likes.” For both Facebook andTwitter, audiences can be overstated by including unintended access driven by forwarded links. Similarly, adding up the total number of Facebook orTwitter accounts also carries a bias for inflated estimates, as this methodology includes corporate accounts and single users who maintain multiple accounts. Where possible, eMarketer normalized the data to get a picture of users of any age accessing sites on a monthly basis via any device.This was done by taking into account variations in research methodologies across different firms, such as the sample size and how the survey was conducted, as these factors can affect results. Finally, we constructed a model that projects future usage, taking into account historical usage rates and factors that might affect usage growth, such as government regulation, population and demographic statistics, internet user growth, and mobile device adoption.
  • 15. US SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: MID-2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 15 DEFINITIONS Blog readers and writers: Internet users who read or update a blog at least once per month. Facebook users: Internet users who access their Facebook account via any device at least once per month. Mobile phone Facebook users: Mobile phone users of any age who access their Facebook account via mobile phone at least once per month. Mobile phone social network users: Mobile phone users who have a profile and access social network sites from a mobile browser or an installed application at least once per month. Mobile phoneTwitter users: Mobile phone users of any age who access theirTwitter account via mobile phone at least once per month. Mother social network users: Internet users who use a social network site via any device at least once per month; mothers defined as females ages 18 and older with children under 18 in the household. Social network users: Internet users who use a social network site via any device at least once per month. Social network sites are defined as sites where the primary activities involve creating a profile and interacting with a network of contacts by sharing status updates, comments, photos or other content. Twitter users: Internet users who access theirTwitter account via any device at least once per month. RELATED EMARKETER REPORTS Facebook Commerce: Evolving, Not Extinct The Global Social Network Landscape: A Country-by-Country Guide to Social Network Usage UK Social Network Users: 2013 Forecast and Comparative Estimates Western Europe Social Network Usage: Facebook Dominates an Increasingly Busy Market Worldwide Social Network Users: 2013 Forecast and Comparative Estimates EDITORIAL AND PRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS Cliff Annicelli Senior Editor Kaitlin Carlin Copy Editor Joanne DiCamillo Senior Production Artist Stephanie Gehrsitz Senior Production Artist Dana Hill Director of Production Nicole Perrin Associate Editorial Director Heather Price Copy Editor Allie Smith Director of Charts