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Presented the article "Supply Chain Risk Management for Critical Commodities" by Keilhacker and Minner, in the System Dynamics course.

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‫تأمین‬ ‫زنجیره‬ ‫مدیریت‬ ‫کاالهای‬ ‫اساسی‬ : ‫یک‬ ‫زمین‬ ‫کمیاب‬ ‫عناصر‬ ‫برای‬ ‫سیستم‬ ‫پویائی‬ ‫مدل‬ Supply chain risk management for critical commodities: A system dynamics model for the case of the rare earth elements Michael L. Keilhacker, Stefan Minner Logistics and Supply Chain Management, School of Management, Technische Universität München, 80333 Munich, Germany 2 ‫ارائه‬ ‫و‬ ‫ترجمه‬ : ‫روحی‬ ‫ایرج‬ – ‫مصطفائی‬ ‫حسین‬ ‫سیستم‬ ‫پویائی‬ ‫درس‬ ‫درس‬ ‫استاد‬ : ‫راد‬ ‫حقیقی‬ ‫فرزاد‬ ‫دکتر‬
 ‫عرضه‬ ‫غیرمنتظره‬ ‫عرضه‬ ‫افت‬ REE ‫سال‬ ‫در‬ 2006 ‫به‬ ‫چین‬ ‫توسط‬ ‫صادرات‬ ‫محدودیت‬ ‫اعمال‬ ‫علت‬  ‫زنجیره‬ ‫در‬ ‫فعال‬ ‫شرکتهای‬ ‫عملکرد‬ ‫در‬ ‫اختالل‬ ‫علل‬ ‫تأمین‬ REE  ‫به‬ ‫جایگزین‬ ‫کننده‬ ‫تأمین‬ ‫وجود‬ ‫عدم‬ ‫بازار‬ ‫سهم‬ ‫علت‬ 98 ‫چین‬ ‫درصدی‬  ‫جایگزین‬ ‫کاالی‬ ‫وجود‬ ‫عدم‬  ‫جایگزینی‬ ‫صورت‬ ‫در‬ ‫ضرر‬ ‫تحمل‬  ‫تأمین‬ ‫ریسک‬ ‫درجه‬ ‫باالترین‬ ‫دارای‬ ‫انجمن‬ ‫بحرانی‬ ‫ماتریس‬ ‫تحلیل‬ ‫طبق‬ ‫آمریکا‬ ‫ملی‬ ‫تحقیقات‬ 3 ‫مقدمه‬
 ‫ریسک‬ ‫کاهش‬ ‫جهت‬ ‫بالقوه‬ ‫استراتژیک‬ ‫تصمیمات‬ ‫تأمین‬ ‫زنجیره‬ :  ‫جایگزین‬ ( ‫تقاضای‬ ‫کاهش‬ REE ‫کاالی‬ ، ‫نهائی‬ ‫کاالی‬ ‫و‬ ‫ساخته‬ ‫نیمه‬ )  ‫بازیافت‬ ( ‫مجدد‬ ‫آوری‬ ‫جمع‬ REE ‫از‬ ‫شده‬ ‫استفاده‬ ‫کاالهای‬ )  ‫جدید‬ ‫معادن‬ ‫افتتاح‬ ( ‫عرض‬ ‫افزایش‬ REE )  R&D ( ،‫جایگزین‬ ‫محصوالت‬ ‫و‬ ‫مواد‬ ‫توسعه‬ ‫فرآوری‬ ‫های‬ ‫تکنیک‬ )  ‫به‬ ‫و‬ ‫دارد‬ ‫عملیاتی‬ ‫و‬ ‫اجرائی‬ ‫عواقب‬ ‫فوق‬ ‫تصمیمات‬ ‫دارد‬ ‫نیاز‬ ‫ویژه‬ ‫گذاری‬ ‫سرمایه‬ ‫و‬ ‫زمان‬ . 4 ‫مقدمه‬
 ‫بررسی‬ 5 ‫خطر‬ ‫کاهش‬ ‫استراتژی‬ : 1 - ‫جایگزینی‬ 2 - ‫بازیافت‬ 3 - ‫جدید‬ ‫معادن‬ ‫افتتاح‬ 4 - ‫توسعه‬ ‫و‬ ‫تحقیق‬ ( ،‫محصوالت‬ ‫توسعه‬ ‫بازیافت‬ ‫جدید‬ ‫های‬ ‫تکنیک‬ ‫و‬ ‫فرآیندها‬ ) 5 - ‫های‬ ‫استراتژی‬ ‫کنش‬ ‫برهم‬ 1 ‫تا‬ 4  ‫های‬ ‫استراتژی‬ ( 1 ) ‫و‬ ( 2 ) ‫و‬ ( 4 ) : ‫شرکتهای‬ ‫بر‬ ‫تمرکز‬ ‫تأمین‬ ‫زنجیره‬ ‫از‬ ‫مرحله‬ ‫سه‬ ‫هر‬ ‫در‬ ‫فرد‬ ‫به‬ ‫منحصر‬ ( ‫شرکتهای‬ ‫معدنی‬ REE ‫تولیدکنندگان‬ ، SFG ‫و‬ FG )  ‫استراتژی‬ ( 3 : ) ‫معدنی‬ ‫شرکتهای‬ ‫روی‬ ‫بر‬ ‫تمرکز‬ REE ‫کل‬ ، ‫صنعت‬ REE ‫کاهش‬ ‫برای‬ ‫معادن‬ ‫افتتاح‬ ‫از‬ ‫دولت‬ ‫حمایت‬ ‫و‬ ‫تأمین‬ ‫های‬ ‫وابستگی‬ REE 5 ‫روش‬ ‫شناسی‬
 ‫مطالعه‬ ‫این‬ ‫از‬ ‫هدف‬  ‫تحلیل‬ ‫تأثیر‬ ‫استراتژی‬ ‫های‬ ‫فعال‬ ( ،‫جایگزینی‬ ‫افتتاح‬ ‫معادن‬ ‫جدید‬ ‫و‬ R&D ) ‫برای‬ ‫جلوگیری‬ ‫یا‬ ‫بهبود‬ ‫در‬ ‫برابر‬ ‫عدم‬ ‫عرضه‬  ‫تحلیل‬ ‫اینکه‬ ‫چگونه‬ ‫استراتژی‬ ‫های‬ ‫مختلف‬ ‫سطح‬ ‫قیمت‬ ‫و‬ ‫تقاضا‬ ‫را‬ ‫در‬ ‫مراحل‬ ‫مختلف‬ ‫زنجیره‬ ‫تأمین‬ ‫کاهش‬ ‫می‬ ‫دهد؟‬ 6 ‫روش‬ ‫شناسی‬
 ‫پژوهش‬ ‫سواالت‬ : 1 - ‫چه‬ ‫اثرات‬ ‫پویائی‬ ‫اساسی‬ ‫توسط‬ ،‫جایگزینی‬ ‫بازیافت‬ ‫و‬ ‫استراتژی‬ ‫گسترش‬ ‫عرضه‬ ‫در‬ ‫زنجیره‬ ‫تأمین‬ REE ‫ایجاد‬ ‫می‬ ‫شود؟‬ 2 - R&D ‫چه‬ ‫اثری‬ ‫بر‬ ‫روی‬ ‫جایگزینی‬ REE ، SFG ‫و‬ FG ‫برای‬ ‫شرکت‬ ‫های‬ ‫ذیربط‬ ‫و‬ ‫بازیافت‬ ‫ثانویه‬ ‫برای‬ ‫تولیدکنندگان‬ FG ‫دارد؟‬ 3 - ‫کدام‬ ‫استراتژی‬ ( ‫یا‬ ‫ترکیب‬ ‫استراتژی‬ ) ‫باید‬ ‫توسط‬ ‫شرکتهای‬ ،‫معدنی‬ ‫تولیدکنندگان‬ SFG ‫و‬ FG ‫با‬ ‫توجه‬ ‫به‬ ‫مرحله‬ ‫زنجیره‬ ‫تأمین‬ ‫و‬ ‫تحت‬ ‫چه‬ ‫شرایطی‬ ‫انتخاب‬ 7 ‫روش‬ ‫شناسی‬
8  ‫روی‬ ‫بر‬ ‫بررسی‬ :  ‫معدنی‬ ‫های‬ ‫شرکت‬ REE  ‫اولیه‬ ‫مواد‬ ‫کنندگان‬ ‫فرآوری‬  ‫کنندگان‬ ‫تولید‬ SFG ‫و‬ FG  ‫ثانویه‬ ‫و‬ ‫اولیه‬ ‫بازیافت‬ ‫های‬ ‫شرکت‬  ‫توسعه‬ ‫و‬ ‫تحقیق‬ ‫های‬ ‫آزمایشگاه‬  ‫در‬ 10 ‫و‬ ‫کشور‬ 18 ‫صنایع‬ ‫از‬ ‫کننده‬ ‫مصرف‬ ‫مختلف‬ ( ‫و‬ ‫سرامیک‬ ، ‫اتومبیل‬ ، ‫نفت‬ )...  ‫سالهای‬ ‫بین‬ ‫زمانی‬ ‫دوره‬ 2004 ‫تا‬ 2015 ‫روش‬ ‫شناسی‬
9
10  ‫برخی‬ ‫از‬ ‫فرضیات‬ ‫کلیدی‬ :  ‫مدل‬ ‫فقط‬ ‫به‬ REE ‫به‬ ‫عنوان‬ ‫یک‬ ‫ماده‬ ‫ورودی‬ ‫اصلی‬ ‫مهم‬ ‫در‬ ‫تولید‬ SFG ‫توجه‬ ‫دارد‬ .  ‫صنایع‬ ‫مشتری‬ ‫هر‬ FG ‫در‬ ‫طی‬ ‫دوره‬ ‫شبیه‬ ‫سازی‬ ‫تغییر‬ ‫نمی‬ ‫کنند‬ .  ‫ضرایب‬ ‫تولید‬ SFG ‫و‬ FG ‫در‬ ‫طی‬ ‫دوره‬ ‫شبیه‬ ‫سازی‬ ‫تغییر‬ ‫نمی‬ ‫کنند‬ .  ‫در‬ ‫طی‬ ‫فرآوری‬ 10 % ‫از‬ REE ‫ها‬ ‫از‬ ‫بین‬ ‫می‬ ‫روند‬ .  ‫میزان‬ ‫از‬ ‫بین‬ ‫رفتن‬ REE ‫در‬ ‫حین‬ ‫ذوب‬ ‫و‬ ‫کنسانتره‬ ‫سازی‬ ‫دیواکسید‬ REE 4 % ‫است‬ .  ‫نسبت‬ REE ‫با‬ ‫کیفیت‬ ‫باال‬ ‫نسبت‬ ‫به‬ ‫کیفیت‬ ‫پایین‬ 70 ‫به‬ 30 ‫درصد‬ ‫است‬ . ‫روش‬ ‫شناسی‬
11  ‫مدلسازی‬ 8 ‫با‬ ‫تأمین‬ ‫زنجیره‬ 11REE ، 10SFG ‫و‬ 21FG ‫در‬ 18 ‫صنعت‬  ‫مرحله‬ ‫سه‬ : ‫کاربرد‬ ‫و‬ ‫فرآوری‬ ،‫تولید‬ ‫ای‬ ‫مرحله‬ ‫سه‬ ‫مدل‬ ‫های‬ ‫ماژول‬ REE System dynamics model ‫و‬ ‫عرضه‬ ‫تقاضا‬ ‫جایگزینی‬ ‫بازیافت‬ ‫و‬ ‫اولیه‬ ‫ثانویه‬ R&D
12
13 System dynamics model
14  ‫ها‬ ‫داده‬ ‫بندی‬ ‫گروه‬ ‫و‬ ‫آوری‬ ‫جمع‬ ‫ها‬ ‫داده‬ ‫گردآوری‬ ‫تخصیص‬ REE ‫محدودیتهای‬ REE ‫طرح‬ ‫مقدار‬ ‫تولید‬ ‫جدید‬ ‫معادن‬ ‫اطالعات‬ ‫جهانی‬ ‫استخراج‬ ‫معادن‬ ‫جهانی‬ ‫رشد‬ ‫جمعیت‬ ‫صنایع‬ ‫متقاضی‬ ‫محصوالت‬ ‫تقاضای‬ FG ‫سال‬ ‫از‬ 2008 8 ‫زنجیره‬ ‫و‬ ‫تأمین‬ ‫تولید‬ ‫ضریب‬ SFG ‫و‬ FG ‫مهم‬ ‫عوامل‬ ‫هر‬ SFG ‫و‬ FG ‫در‬ ‫کاالی‬ ‫برای‬ ‫دسترس‬ ‫بازیافت‬ ‫شروع‬ ‫نرخ‬ ‫جایگزینی‬ ‫منابع‬ ‫داده‬ ‫شامل‬ ‫آمارهای‬ ‫دولتی‬ ‫یا‬ ‫صنعتی‬ ، ‫مانند‬ ‫وزارت‬ ‫صنعت‬ ‫و‬ ‫فناوری‬ ‫اطالعات‬ ‫چین‬ (2015) ، ‫کمیسیون‬ ‫اروپا‬ (2014) ، ‫سازمان‬ ‫زمین‬ ‫شناسی‬ ‫ایاالت‬ ‫متحده‬ (2014) ، ‫سازمان‬ ‫ملل‬ (1998) ‫و‬ ‫کتاب‬ ‫ها‬ ، ‫گزارش‬ ‫های‬ ‫تحقیقاتی‬ ‫و‬ ‫مقاالت‬
15 ‫نتایج‬ ‫سناریوه‬ ‫ا‬
16  ‫اول‬ ‫سؤال‬ ‫به‬ ‫پاسخ‬ :  ‫گسترش‬ ‫استراتژی‬ ‫و‬ ‫بازیافت‬ ،‫جایگزینی‬ ‫در‬ ‫را‬ ‫اساسی‬ ‫پویایی‬ ‫اثرات‬ ‫چه‬ ‫عرضه‬ ‫تأمین‬ ‫زنجیره‬ REE ‫کنند؟‬ ‫می‬ ‫ایجاد‬ ‫نتایج‬ ‫نتایج‬ ‫سناریوه‬ ‫ا‬
17 ‫نتایج‬ ‫نتایج‬ ‫سناریوه‬ ‫ا‬
18 ‫نتایج‬ ‫نتایج‬ ‫سناریوه‬ ‫ا‬
19 ‫نتایج‬ ‫نتایج‬ ‫سناریوه‬ ‫ا‬
20 ‫نتایج‬ ‫نتایج‬ ‫سناریوه‬ ‫ا‬
21 ‫نتایج‬ ‫نتایج‬ ‫سناریوه‬ ‫ا‬
 ‫چگونه‬ R&D ‫تأثیر‬ ‫زمان‬ ‫طول‬ ‫در‬ ‫ها‬ ‫استراتژی‬ ‫بر‬ ‫گذارد؟‬ ‫می‬  ‫های‬ ‫شکل‬ 4 ‫و‬ 5 ‫تعویض‬ ‫که‬ ‫دهد‬ ‫می‬ ‫نشان‬ SFG ‫و‬ FG ‫با‬ R&D ‫به‬ ‫نسبت‬ ‫باالتری‬ ‫بسیار‬ ‫کاهش‬ ‫پتانسیل‬ ‫از‬ ‫است‬ ‫برخوردار‬ ‫آن‬ ‫بدون‬ .  ‫قیمت‬ ‫سطح‬ ‫افزایش‬ FG ‫قیمت‬ ‫سطح‬ ‫افزایش‬ ‫به‬ ‫نسبت‬ SFG ‫در‬ ‫را‬ ‫بیشتری‬ ‫رشد‬ R&D ‫شود‬ ‫می‬ ‫موجب‬ .  ‫تولیدکنندگان‬ ‫که‬ ‫شود‬ ‫می‬ ‫نتیجه‬ FG ‫و‬ SFG ‫بصورت‬ ‫در‬ ‫گذاری‬ ‫سرمایه‬ ‫به‬ ‫پیشرو‬ R&D ‫از‬ ‫بعد‬ ‫و‬ ‫ندارند‬ ‫صادرات‬ ‫محدودیت‬ REE ‫شان‬ ‫فعالیت‬ ‫و‬ ‫گذاری‬ ‫سرمایه‬ 22 ‫نتایج‬ ‫نتایج‬ ‫سناریوه‬ ‫ا‬  ‫پاسخ‬ ‫به‬ ‫سؤال‬ ‫دوم‬ :
 ‫استراتژی‬ ‫کدام‬ ( ‫استراتژی‬ ‫ترکیب‬ ‫یا‬ ) ‫توسط‬ ‫باید‬ ‫تولیدکنندگان‬ ،‫معدنی‬ ‫شرکتهای‬ SFG ‫و‬ FG ‫توجه‬ ‫با‬ ‫انتخاب‬ ‫شرایطی‬ ‫چه‬ ‫تحت‬ ‫و‬ ‫تأمین‬ ‫زنجیره‬ ‫مرحله‬ ‫به‬ ‫عرضه‬ ‫نبودن‬ ‫دسترس‬ ‫در‬ ‫ریسک‬ ‫تا‬ ‫شود‬ REE ‫کاهش‬ ‫را‬ ‫دهد؟‬ 1 - ‫تولیدکنندگان‬ FG ‫جایگزینی‬ ‫استراتژی‬ ‫از‬ ‫باید‬ ‫تأمین‬ ‫به‬ ‫دسترسی‬ ‫عدم‬ ‫خطر‬ ‫تا‬ ‫کنند‬ ‫استفاده‬ REE ‫نشان‬ ‫را‬ ‫کاهش‬ ‫پتانسیل‬ ‫باالترین‬ ‫زیرا‬ ‫یابد‬ ‫کاهش‬ ‫داد‬ . 23 ‫نتایج‬ ‫نتایج‬ ‫سناریوه‬ ‫ا‬  ‫پاسخ‬ ‫به‬ ‫سؤال‬ ‫سوم‬ :
3 - ‫تولیدکنندگان‬ ‫جایگزینی‬ ‫دیدگاه‬ ‫از‬ SFG ‫تأثیر‬ ‫دارند‬ ‫احتمالی‬ ‫تقاضای‬ ‫کاهش‬ ‫در‬ ‫کمتری‬ ‫بالقوه‬ ‫تا‬ ‫دهند‬ ‫گسترش‬ ‫را‬ ‫خود‬ ‫پورتفولیوی‬ ‫باید‬ ‫بنابراین‬ ‫نخورند‬ ‫بر‬ ‫مشکل‬ ‫به‬ ‫تأمین‬ ‫عدم‬ ‫مواقع‬ ‫در‬ . 4 - ‫یابی‬ ‫منبع‬ ‫استراتژی‬ ‫باید‬ ‫نبود‬ ‫پذیر‬ ‫امکان‬ ‫اگر‬ ‫یابد‬ ‫کاهش‬ ‫ریسک‬ ‫تا‬ ‫کنند‬ ‫تعدیل‬ ‫را‬ ‫خود‬ . 5 - ‫ویژه‬ ‫خصوصیات‬ ‫به‬ ‫توجه‬ ‫با‬ REE ‫جایگزینی‬ ، REE ‫بصورت‬ ‫و‬ ‫نیست‬ ‫گرایانه‬ ‫واقع‬ ‫آنالیز‬ ‫دوره‬ ‫طول‬ ‫در‬ ‫نیست‬ ‫پذیر‬ ‫امکان‬ ‫تئوریک‬ . 24 ‫نتایج‬ ‫نتایج‬ ‫سناریوه‬ ‫ا‬  ‫پاسخ‬ ‫به‬ ‫سؤال‬ ‫سوم‬ :
6 - ‫برای‬ ‫جایگزینی‬ ‫رشد‬ ‫نرخ‬ ‫نتیجه‬ ‫در‬ ‫و‬ ‫دانش‬ ‫تجمیع‬ FG ‫از‬ SFG ‫و‬ REE ‫است‬ ‫ضروری‬ ‫بنابراین‬ ‫است‬ ‫بیشتر‬ ‫روی‬ ‫بر‬ ‫تأمین‬ ‫زنجیره‬ ‫از‬ ‫مرحله‬ ‫هر‬ ‫در‬ ‫شرکتها‬ ‫همه‬ ‫کنند‬ ‫تمرکز‬ ‫ها‬ ‫جایگزین‬ ‫توسعه‬ . 7 - R&D ‫به‬ ‫ثانویه‬ ‫بازیافت‬ ‫و‬ ‫جایگزینی‬ ‫طریق‬ ‫از‬ ‫می‬ ‫بهبود‬ ‫را‬ ‫خطر‬ ‫کاهش‬ ‫پتانسیل‬ ‫ای‬ ‫مالحظه‬ ‫قابل‬ ‫طور‬ ‫بخشد‬ . 25 ‫نتایج‬ ‫نتایج‬ ‫سناریوه‬ ‫ا‬  ‫پاسخ‬ ‫به‬ ‫سؤال‬ ‫سوم‬ :
 ‫کاهش‬ ‫پتانسیل‬ ‫باالترین‬ ‫برای‬ ‫استراتژی‬ ‫بهترین‬ ‫تأمین‬ ‫به‬ ‫دسترسی‬ ‫عدم‬ ‫برابر‬ ‫در‬ ‫را‬ ‫پذیری‬ ‫آسیب‬ 1 - ‫تولیدکنندگان‬ ‫برای‬ ‫جایگزینی‬ FG 2 - ‫برای‬ ‫بازیافت‬ ‫فرآیندهای‬ ‫و‬ ‫زیرساخت‬ ‫صورت‬ ‫در‬ ‫تولیدکنندگان‬ FG ‫است‬ ‫مناسبی‬ ‫استراتژی‬ . 3 - ‫تولیدکنندگان‬ ‫برای‬ ‫اولیه‬ ‫بازیافت‬ SFG 4 - ‫تولیدکنندگان‬ SFG ‫خاص‬ ‫ویژگیهای‬ ‫علت‬ ‫به‬ REE ‫و‬ ‫پورتفولیو‬ ‫تنطیم‬ ‫و‬ ‫جایگزینی‬ ‫برای‬ ‫جایگزینی‬ ‫عدم‬ ‫تولیدکنندگان‬ ‫به‬ ‫نسبت‬ ‫زیادی‬ ‫مشکالت‬ ‫محصوالت‬ FG ‫دارند‬ . 5 - ‫معدنی‬ ‫شرکتهای‬ ‫توسط‬ ‫عرضه‬ ‫افزایش‬ REE 6 - ‫یک‬ ‫استخراج‬ ‫و‬ ‫معادن‬ ‫ازافتتاح‬ ‫دولت‬ ‫حمایت‬ ‫است‬ ‫مؤثر‬ ‫استراتژی‬ . 7 - ‫تولیدکنندگان‬ ‫برای‬ ‫استراتژی‬ ‫بهترین‬ SFG ‫و‬ FG ‫است‬ ‫مختلف‬ ‫های‬ ‫استراتژی‬ ‫از‬ ‫ترکیبی‬ . 26 ‫جمع‬ ‫بندی‬
‫شما‬ ‫توجه‬ ‫از‬ ‫سپاسگزاریم‬ 27

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