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第9回XBRL勉強会発表資料(代理投稿)
- 3. Agenda
✤ DCF Overview
✤ SNS3
✤
✤ Valuation
✤ QA
3
- 4. DCF Overview
✤ FCF
✤
✤
✤ etc
✤ etc
4
- 6. God is no where.
( )
God is now here.
( )
5
- 7. GREE,DeNA,mixi 3
GREE DeNA mixi
2004 12 1999 3 1999 6
2004 2 2006 12 ( ) 2004 2
139 376 120
83 158 37
2,036 3,217 822
2008 12 2005 2 2006 8
/
1
102 574 226
6
- 9. GREE,DeNA,mixi 3
GREE DeNA mixi
59.79% 16.87% 59.10%
7.14%
14.84% 2.05%
7.14%
5.73%
3.98% 2.04%
2.65% 4.60% 1.65%
2.03% 4.19%
1.47%
1.78%
1.35%
3.67%
0.97% 1.20%
3.58%
1.04%
0.97% 3.20%
0.78%
0.95%
0.52%
2.97%
2.94% 0.52%
87.47% 62.59% 71.72%
8
- 12. GREE
2005/06 2006/06 2007/06 2008/06 2009/06 CAGR
( )
( )
( )
CF( )
CF( )
FCF( )
CF( )
11
- 13. #%&& $'
!""
%!!""
'!!""
(!!""
)!!""
$*!!!""
$*%!!""
$*'!!""
$*(!!""
$*)!!""
%!!(+!$"
GREE
GREE
%!!(+!&"
•
•
•
%!!(+!#"
%!!(+!,"
%!!(+!-"
%!!(+$$"
%!!,+!$"
PV
%!!,+!&"
%!!,+!#"
()**
%!!,+!,"
%!!,+!-"
PV
%!!,+$$"
./
%!!)+!$"
%!!)+!&"
!"
0"
%!!)+!#"
%!!)+!,"
%!!)+!-"
%!!)+$$"
./ .1
%!!-+!$"
%!!-+!&"
%!!-+!#"
%!!-+!,"
%!!-+!-"
%!!-+$$"
!"
#!"
$!!"
$#!"
%!!"
%#!"
&!!"
!" # !"$
12
- 14. GREE
GREE
!(#$ !"#$ !%
!"#$ %#$ !%)!*
%&#$ '(#$
&"#$
20 77
13
- 15. GREE
*$!!!""
)$!!!""
$%
($!!!""
!"##
'$!!!""
&$!!!""
%$!!!""
#$!!!""
!""
%!!+,#" %!!+,%" %!!+,&" %!!+,'" %!!-,#" %!!-,%" %!!-,&" %!!-,'" %!#!,#" %!#!,%"
14
- 17. GREE
✤ SNS
✤ 2008
✤ PV
✤ 20
✤ ( )
16
- 21. DeNA
-./
'#$!!!$!!!""
'!$!!!$!!!""
&#$!!!$!!!""
80
"#
&!$!!!$!!!""
95
!
%#$!!!$!!!""
%!$!!!$!!!""
#$!!!$!!!""
!""
&!!#(!)" &!!)(!)" &!!*(!)" &!!+(!)" &!!,(!)"
20
- 22. DeNA
PV
!"
-."
%$*!!"" #!$!!!""
%$)!!"" (#$!!!""
%$(!!"" (!$!!!""
'#$!!!""
%$&!!"" PV
!"$
$%
'!$!!!""
%$!!!""
&#$!!!""
#
!"#
*!!""
&!$!!!""
)!!""
%#$!!!""
(!!"" %!$!!!""
&!!"" #$!!!""
!"" !""
!) !&
!) !(
!) !)
!) !*
!) %!
!) %&
!+ !&
!+ !(
!+ !)
!+ !*
!+ %!
!+ %&
!* !&
!* !(
!* !)
!* !*
!* %!
!* %&
!, !&
!, !(
!, !)
!, !*
!, %!
!, %&
21
- 23. DeNA
*!!!"
)!!!"
(!!!"
'!!!"
$
!"##
&!!!"
%!!!"
$!!!"
#!!!"
!"
$!!)+#" $!!)+$" $!!)+%" $!!)+&" $!!*+#" $!!*+$" $!!*+%" $!!*+&" $!!,+#" $!!,+$" $!!,+%"
22
- 24. DeNA
$%
!)% !+!% )(++%
!!%
'!% '!%
!"##
&$!"% &"+)% )+*%
&)*(% !")#%
&"*'% &!++%
!+&+% +'$% !$$!%
!!)!%
!*(&% !)$*% !!#+% !&"&% '"+% !+($% +&"%
!')#%
!"#$% !&!'% !&(#% !!)*% !"&'% !!&(%
$)'%
&""+,$% &""#,!% &""#,&% &""#,)% &""#,$% &""',!% &""',&% &""',)%
23
- 25. DeNA
( )
&" #" !"
&""-'
,"-'
+"-'
$"-'
."-'
)"-'
("-'
!"-'
#"-'
&"-'
"-'
!"" ("" )"" &*""" &*)""
#""$%"#%"&' #""$%!%&"' #""$%)%&"' #""+%(%&"' #"",%,%&('
!" +-' &#-' &!-' #"-' #)-'
#" !"-' !#-' !(-' ("-' (!-'
&" .#-' ).-' )!-' ("-' !&-'
24
- 26. DeNA
✤ 2009 10 4
etc
✤ 3−4 PV (200 →450 )
✤
✤ (1 )
25
- 27. DeNA
✤ ( )
✤ ( )
✤ PV
✤
✤
✤
26
- 31. mixi
-./. -./.
(#$!!!""
(!$!!!""
$
'$!!!""
!"##
&$!!!""
mixi 86
%$!!!""
#$!!!""
!""
#!!)*!+" #!!'*!+" #!!,*!+"
-./. +$%&+"" '$(&+"" (!$%+(""
-./. %(&"" 0,%"" ))!""
($+&'"" ($#,0"" '0!""
30
- 32. mixi
mixi PV
&'(' !"
-."/-01" -."/2345671"
%,!!!"" %#!"
$,*!!"" mixi
$,&!!"" %!!"
$,+!!""
PV
$
$,%!!"" $#!"
!"# !"$%
$,!!!""
#
*!!"" $!!"
&!!""
+!!"" #!"
%!!""
!"" !"
!$
!'
!#
!(
!)
$$
!$
!'
!#
!(
!)
$$
!$
!'
!#
!(
!)
$$
!$
!'
!#
!(
!)
$$
!&
!&
!&
!&
!&
!&
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!*
!*
!*
!*
!*
!*
!)
!)
!)
!)
!)
!)
31
- 33. mixi
)!"!#$
(%"!#$ !"#$%&
(!"!#$ '(#)%&
'%"!#$
'!"!#$
&%"!#$
&!"!#$
%"!#$
!"!#$
&%*&+$&,*&-$'!*')$'%*'-$(!*()$)%*(-$)!*))$)%*)-$ %!*$
!"#"$%
"!#"$%
20
90%
32
- 34. mixi
mixi
•2009 8 SAP 460 PC:780, Mobile:330
• ( (449 ) (342 )
(217 DeNA ))
• PV ( 159 → 227 )
•SAP PV (mixi2 SAP8 )
SAP
mixi
33
- 35. mixi
✤ mixi
✤ PC PV Mobile PV
✤ mixi Mobile PV
✤ 90
✤ mixi
✤ SAP
34
- 36. GREE DeNA mixi
,
( )
GREE Connect mixi
2010 1
2010 2009 8
PV ,PC
35
- 37. :'/-()
) *+,+ 56'-%()
0123 54'4;()
45'54()
2"7839 ) *+,+ %/'&.()
0123 4%'%/()
4.'4()
*+,+ -/'.()
0123 5&'6() &;';.(
) *+,+ 4-'46(
0123 %5'-4()
!"#$
%&'&() %4'6%)
*+,+ -.'/() *+,+ :'.4
0123 45'6() 0123 &':&)
-'5/ 4'6%)
*+,+ 6';- *+,+ .'5:
0123 -'5/) 0123 :'.&)
36
- 38. ! "
!%
!""
#!!""
$!!""
%!!""
&!!""
'(!!!""
'(#!!""
'($!!""
'(%!!""
'(&!!""
#(!!!""
!#
!%
!$
!%
!%
!%
!&
!%
!%
'! •GREE
'#
!)
!#
!)
•DeNA mixi
!$
!)
!%
+,--"
!)
!&
!)
'!
!)
'#
!&
./01"
!#
!&
!$
!&
!%
!&
2343"
!&
!&
'!
!&
'#
!*
!#
!*
!$
!*
!%
!*
!&
!*
'!
!*
'#
37
- 39. !"
-./.0123# -./.0 45660 3# 45660123#
(!!"!##
'$!"!## •2009 GREE (CM )
'!!"!## • mixi
&$!"!## • GREE
!"$%
&!!"!##
#
!"
%$!"!##
%!!"!##
$!"!##
!"!##
!&
!(
!)
!*
%!
%&
!&
!(
!)
!*
%!
%&
!&
!(
!)
!*
%!
%&
!&
!(
!)
!*
%!
%&
!)
!)
!)
!)
!)
!)
!+
!+
!+
!+
!+
!+
!*
!*
!*
!*
!*
!*
!,
!,
!,
!,
!,
!,
38
- 43. 2008
9,091 ( 75.3
13 39 95%
75.4%
20 40 90%
↓
41
- 44. 2008
6,983
913 ( 147 )
1,610 ( 114.0
170 ( 200%)
42
- 45. ( ) GREE
15%( 15% 0 )
3 4 2000 3000
85
5
2012 ,PV
0.5%
43
- 46. ( ) DeNA
15%( 15% 0 )
2−3 30
2
5
2012 ,PV
0.5%
44
- 47. ( ) mixi
15%( 15% 0 )
mixi
mixi SAP
5
2012 ,PV
0.5%
45
- 48. (2/12 )
GREE 3,561 4,840 -26%
DeNA 374,436 657,000 -54%
mixi 210,981 517,000 -59%
46
- 49. →
→
→ 66 ” ”
(DeNA,mixi) M&A???
→
47
- 50. ↓
IR ( )
GREE > DeNA > mixi
GREE
48