Empowered lives.                                   Resilient nations.Carbon consumption: Which   footprint to measure?    ...
Why this presentation?    1990                                  • During 1990-2008, global                    30.3        ...
Kyoto Protocol divides   countries into three groups• Annex I (“industrialized economies and  economies in transition”):  ...
National obligations under               the Kyoto Protocol      Annex I countries              Non-Annex I countries•   B...
Changes in country shares of global    greenhouse gas emissions                                                  23%      ...
Varying interpretations• “Developing countries need binding targets”• Developed countries are “outsourcing” or “off-  shor...
“Carbon consumption”: Key questions• What is it?• How to measure it?• What would be the development implications  of measu...
How to measure         carbon consumption?• Answer:  – Measure “virtual carbon trade”—greenhouse    gases embodied in impo...
Recent developments• New study* (May 2011) measures carbon  consumption for:    – 1990-2008 period    – 95 countries    – ...
Carbon production, consumption:        Important country differences5741                              Greenhouse          ...
Who are the world’s        largest carbon exporters?878                                              Four of the top 12 ar...
Who are the world’s          largest carbon importers?                                                             -57    ...
What if we measured carbon   consumption, not emissions?• Carbon exporters would have lower emissions  reductions requirem...
Net carbon exporters                    (in relative terms)   23%      22%                                            Net ...
Net carbon importers                   (in relative terms)                                                                ...
“Outsourcing” as an explanation for               carbon exports/imports         878                                     •...
Can “outsourcing” explain carbon       exports in CIS countries?• Probably not:  – Not much manufacturing has migrated to ...
Many net carbon exporters are          also very energy inefficient . . .    4.1                                          ...
. . . While carbon importers tend    to be more energy efficient2.1                                             Tons of CO...
Development implications• Use of carbon consumption data to set  binding emissions reductions would:  – Favour energy inef...
Conclusions• Basic indicator for measuring national  contributions to climate change to remain  greenhouse gas production ...
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Carbon consumption: Which footprint to measure

  1. 1. Empowered lives. Resilient nations.Carbon consumption: Which footprint to measure? Ben Slay Senior economist UNDP Bureau for Europe and CIS 15 September 2011
  2. 2. Why this presentation? 1990 • During 1990-2008, global 30.3 greenhouse gas (carbon) 2008 emissions grew 39% 21.9 • Development dimension: – Most of this growth comes from developing countries – Developed (and transition) economies made relatively small contribution • How should these trends be interpreted?Billion tons of CO2 equivalent. UNFCCC data.
  3. 3. Kyoto Protocol divides countries into three groups• Annex I (“industrialized economies and economies in transition”): – Must reduce greenhouse gases to 1990 levels• Annex II (“industrialized countries”) must: – Reduce greenhouse gases to 1990 levels – Subsidize efforts by Annex I, non-Annex I countries to mitigate, adapt to climate change• Non-Annex I: Developing countries (China, India, Brazil)—No obligations
  4. 4. National obligations under the Kyoto Protocol Annex I countries Non-Annex I countries• Belarus • Lithuania • Albania • Georgia• Bulgaria • Poland • Armenia • Kyrgyzstan• Czech Rep. • Romania • Azerbaijan • Malta• Croatia • Russia • Bosnia and • Moldova• Hungary • Slovakia Herzegovina • Montenegro• Kazakhstan • Turkey • Cyprus • Serbia• Latvia • Ukraine • Former • Tajikistan Yugoslav • Turkmenistan Republic of Macedonia • Uzbekistan
  5. 5. Changes in country shares of global greenhouse gas emissions 23% 1990 200822% Annex I, II: 19% 19% Obliged to reduce Non-Annex I: Not emissions obliged to reduce emissions 13% 11% 11% 11% 5% 5% 6% 6% 4% 3%USA EU-27 Russia Japan China India Other DCs UNFCCC data.
  6. 6. Varying interpretations• “Developing countries need binding targets”• Developed countries are “outsourcing” or “off- shoring” carbon-intensive production to developing countries – “Massive transfer of carbon from the poor world to the rich world” • Rich world is exploiting a loophole in the Kyoto system – Implication: Carbon consumption should be measured, not production (emissions)
  7. 7. “Carbon consumption”: Key questions• What is it?• How to measure it?• What would be the development implications of measuring carbon consumption (as greenhouse gas indicator, under Kyoto Protocol) for: – Developing, developed countries? – Transition economies?
  8. 8. How to measure carbon consumption?• Answer: – Measure “virtual carbon trade”—greenhouse gases embodied in imports and exports – Carbon consumption = Emissions – net carbon exports• This gives us the ability to show the share of China’s greenhouse gas emissions that are: – Generated in China . . . – . . . But are due to production of goods that are consumed in other countries
  9. 9. Recent developments• New study* (May 2011) measures carbon consumption for: – 1990-2008 period – 95 countries – 24 RBEC countries• Not included: – BiH, FYRoM, Kosovo (as per UNSC resolution 1244), Montenegro, Serbia – Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan* Peters et al., “Growth in emission transfers via international trade from 1990 to2008”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2011, available athttp://www.pnas.org/content/108/21/8903.full.pdf+html.
  10. 10. Carbon production, consumption: Important country differences5741 Greenhouse 6213 Greenhouse 5048 gases gases emitted consumed 4880 3993 4170 1505 1403 1288 1486 1265 1168USA China EU Russia India Japan USA EU China Japan India Russia In million tons of CO2 equivalent, annual averages (2000-2008).
  11. 11. Who are the world’s largest carbon exporters?878 Four of the top 12 are transition economies 337 138 118 72 47 44 39 32 32 29 27 In million tons of CO2 equivalent, annual averages (2000-2008).
  12. 12. Who are the world’s largest carbon importers? -57 -48 -28 -26 -71 -64 -82 -199 -472-886 In million tons of CO2 equivalent, annual averages (2000-2008).
  13. 13. What if we measured carbon consumption, not emissions?• Carbon exporters would have lower emissions reductions requirements – A smaller share of the global mitigation burden would fall on them• Carbon importers would have higher emissions reductions requirements – A larger share of the global mitigation burden would fall on them• Who are the net carbon importers, exporters?
  14. 14. Net carbon exporters (in relative terms) 23% 22% Net greenhouse gas exports divided by greenhouse gas emissions (million tons of CO2 equivalent, annual averages for 2000-2008) 16% 13% 12% 6% 5% 3% 0%Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Poland Czech Rep. Azerbaijan Bulgaria Romania Belarus
  15. 15. Net carbon importers (in relative terms) -10% -10% -17% -20% -26% -23% -34% -31% -39% -53% -51% Net greenhouse gas imports divided by greenhouse gas emissions (million tons of CO2 equivalent, annual averages for 2000-2008) -92%-107%
  16. 16. “Outsourcing” as an explanation for carbon exports/imports 878 • China’s position as the world’s largest carbon exporter is due to migration of carbon-intensive China EU manufacturing from EU • EU’s position as the world’s largest carbon importer is due to migration of -886 carbon-intensiveIn million tons of CO2 equivalent, manufacturing to China annual averages (2000-2008).
  17. 17. Can “outsourcing” explain carbon exports in CIS countries?• Probably not: – Not much manufacturing has migrated to these countries from developed world – Post-Soviet “de-industrialization”• Better explanation: carbon-intensive industrial sectors, reflecting: – Large roles of energy, metals in industry, exports – Energy (in)efficiency
  18. 18. Many net carbon exporters are also very energy inefficient . . . 4.1 Tons of CO2 equivalent 3.5 consumed per $ of GDP, 3.1 annual averages, 2000-2008 2.0 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.0Ukraine Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Russia Bulgaria Romania Poland Czech Rep.
  19. 19. . . . While carbon importers tend to be more energy efficient2.1 Tons of CO2 equivalent consumed per $ of GDP, annual averages, 2000-2008 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6
  20. 20. Development implications• Use of carbon consumption data to set binding emissions reductions would: – Favour energy inefficient countries (carbon exporters) – Burden energy efficient countries (carbon importers)• Carbon “out-sourcing”—a red herring? – In RBEC region there’s not much evidence of this – By imposing binding emissions constraints on developed but not developing countries, Kyoto promotes “carbon outsourcing”
  21. 21. Conclusions• Basic indicator for measuring national contributions to climate change to remain greenhouse gas production – Difficulties in measuring “virtual carbon trade” – Negotiators don’t want to re-open this issue• Development implications: – For transition economies, this may not be a bad thing – But let’s keep an eye on this “other carbon footprint”• Rather than argue about “outsourcing” carbon emissions, let’s reduce them

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