South Africa is recovering from its deepest recession since the end of apartheid in the late 1990s. Despite fears that the new ANC administration under President Jacob Zuma would implement populist economic policies, the new team has so far maintained the previous administration's broad policy framework. The economy returned to positive growth in 2009 and 2010, though the recovery is expected to be modest this year due to high unemployment and household debt. Inflation has fallen sharply and interest rates have been cut substantially.

1. South Africa
SEB MERCHANT BANKING –– COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS April 21, 2010
Analyst: Jenny Nordgren. Tel : +46 8 763 96 05. E-mail : jenny.nordgren@seb.se
South Africa is recovering from its deepest recession since the fall of apartheid. Despite some fear
of populist policies, the new administration has kept economic policies broadly intact. Maintained
commitment to prudent policies and public debt at a modest level is key to sustained market
confidence.
Country Risk Analysis
qÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=áë=êÉÅçîÉêáåÖ=Ñêçã=áíë=ïçêëí=êÉÅÉëëáçå=ëáåÅÉ=NVVNJVOK=oÉ~ä=dam=
ÖêçïíÜ=ÑÉää=Äó=~äãçëí=O=B=áå=OMMV=ã~áåäó=ÇìÉ=íç=~=Åçåíê~Åíáçå=áå=ã~áå=Éñéçêí=ëÉÅíçêëI=
ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ=~åÇ=ãáåáåÖI=~ë=
ïÉää=~ë=áå=~ÖêáÅìäíìêÉK=qÜÉ= Real GDP (2008-2009)
ÉÅçåçãóI=ÜçïÉîÉêI=êÉíìêåÉÇ=íç=
6
éçëáíáîÉ=ÖêçïíÜ=áå=nPI=HMKV=B=óÉ~ê=
Annual percentage change
4
çå=óÉ~ê=EóçóFI=~åÇ=nQI=HPKO=B=óçóI=
2
ÇìÉ=íç=~=êÉÄçìåÇ=áå=
0
ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ=~åÇ=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ= Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
-2
êçÄìëí=ÖêçïíÜ=áå=ÅçåëíêìÅíáçåK= -4
aÉëéáíÉ=~å=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=Äççëí=Ñêçã= -6
íÜÉ=OMNM=cfc^=tçêäÇ=`ìéI=íÜÉ= -8
êÉÅçîÉêó=áë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç=ÄÉ=ãçÇÉëí=
íÜáë=óÉ~ê=ÇìÉ=íç=ïÉ~â=éêáî~íÉ=Åçåëìãéíáçå=Ü~êãÉÇ=Äó=ÜáÖÜ=ìåÉãéäçóãÉåí=EOP=BF=
~åÇ=ÜçìëÉÜçäÇ=ÇÉÄí=äÉîÉäë=âÉÉéáåÖ=dam=ÖêçïíÜ=ÄÉäçï=éçíÉåíá~ä=~í=àìëí=~ÄçîÉ=O=BK=
=
pÜ~êé=áåíÉêÉëí=ê~íÉ=Åìíë=~åÇ=áãéêçîÉÇ=ã~êâÉí=ÅçåÑáÇÉåÅÉK=fåÑä~íáçå=Ü~ë=Ñ~ääÉå=
ëÜ~êéäó=çîÉê=íÜÉ=é~ëí=óÉ~ê=ÇêçééáåÖ=Ä~Åâ=ïáíÜáå=íÜÉ=`Éåíê~ä=_~åâÛë=PJS=éÉêÅÉåí=
í~êÖÉí=ê~åÖÉ=áå=ä~ëí=cÉÄêì~êó=~ääçïáåÖ=íÜÉ=`Éåíê~ä=_~åâ=íç=Åìí=áåíÉêÉëí=ê~íÉë=Äó=RRM=
Ä~ëáë=éçáåíë=íç=RKRB=é~K=çîÉê=~=NR=ãçåíÜë=éÉêáçÇ=íç=j~êÅÜI=OMNMK=kçíïáíÜëí~åÇáåÖ=
íÜÉ=áåíÉêÉëí=ê~íÉë=ÅìíëI=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ê~åÇ=Ü~ë=ëíêÉåÖíÜÉåÉÇ=Ä~Åâ=íç=áíë=éêÉJ
Åêáëáë=äÉîÉä=~åÇ=íÜÉ=ëíçÅâ=ã~êâÉí=Ü~ë=êÉÅçîÉêÉÇ=ëíêçåÖäó=êÉÑäÉÅíáåÖ=áå=é~êí=~=êÉíìêå=çÑ=
éçêíÑçäáç=Éèìáíó=áåÑäçïëK=j~êâÉí=ÅçåÑáÇÉåÅÉ=Ü~ë=áãéêçîÉÇ=áå=äáåÉ=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=ïáÇÉê=
êÉÅçîÉêó=áå=ÉãÉêÖáåÖ=ã~êâÉí=ëÉåíáãÉåí=éìëÜáåÖ=Ççïå=íÜÉ=`apJëéêÉ~Ç=íç=éêÉJ
pÉéíÉãÄÉê=OMMU=äÉîÉäëK==
=
k~êêçïáåÖ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=ÇÉÑáÅáíK=qÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=ÇÉÑáÅáí=å~êêçïÉÇ=íç=~êçìåÇ=
Q=B=çÑ=dam=áå=OMMV=Ñêçã=~êçìåÇ=T=B=íÜÉ=íïç=éêÉîáçìë=óÉ~êëK==qÜáë=ï~ë=ÇìÉ=íç=~=
äçïÉê=ÇÉÑáÅáí=áå=íÜÉ=íê~ÇÉ=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=~ë=ïÉää=~ë=íÜÉ=áåÅçãÉ=~åÇ=ëÉêîáÅÉë=Ä~ä~åÅÉK=
eçïÉîÉêI=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=ÇÉÑáÅáí=áë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç=ïáÇÉå=~Ö~áå=ã~áåäó=ÇìÉ=íç=
ÜáÖÜÉê=çáä=éêáÅÉë=~åÇ=áãéçêíë=çÑ=Å~éáí~ä=ÖççÇëK=pç=Ñ~ê=áí=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=ÅçãÑçêí~Ääó=
Ñáå~åÅÉÇ=Äó=Å~éáí~ä=áåÑäçïëI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÇáêÉÅí=áåîÉëíãÉåíëI=cafI=~åÇ=ãçêÉ=
êÉÅÉåíäó=~äëç=ÑçêÉáÖå=éçêíÑçäáç=áåîÉëíãÉåíë=áå=äçÅ~ä=ëÉÅìêáíó=ã~êâÉíëK==^ë=~=êÉëìäíI=íÜÉ=
Ä~ä~åÅÉ=çÑ=é~óãÉåí=éçëáíáçå=Ü~ë=êÉã~áåÉÇ=êçÄìëí=~åÇ=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=êÉëÉêîÉë=Ü~îÉ=
important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights.

2. SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis April, 2010
êáëÉå=~ë=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=Ü~ë=ÄçìÖÜí=ÉñÅÉëë=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=íç=~îçáÇ=~=íçç=ê~éáÇ=
~ééêÉÅá~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=ê~åÇK==dêçëë=ÉñíÉêå~ä=ÇÉÄí=êÉã~áåë=äçï=~í=~êçìåÇ=PM=B=çÑ=dam=
~åÇ=ëÜçêíJíÉêã=ÇÉÄí=çÑ=rpa=OOÄå=áë=Ñìääó=ÅçîÉêÉÇ=Äó=cu=êÉëÉêîÉë=çÑ=rpa=PVÄåK==
=
píêçåÖ=ÑáëÅ~ä=ëíáãìäìëK=mìÄäáÅ=Ñáå~åÅÉë=ÇÉíÉêáçê~íÉÇ=ëÜ~êéäó=áå=cv=OMMV=EÉåÇáåÖ=
j~êÅÜ=PNI=OMNMF=ÇìÉ=íç=~=ëÜ~êé=Çêçé=áå=í~ñ=êÉîÉåìÉë=~åÇ=éìÄäáÅ=ëÉÅíçê=é~ó=êáëÉëK=^ë=~=
êÉëìäíI=íÜÉ=ÄìÇÖÉí=ÇÉÑáÅáí=ïáÇÉåÉÇ=
Ñêçã=NKO=B=áå=cv=OMMU=íç=TKO=B=áå=cv= Public finances
OMMVI=ÇçìÄäÉ=íÜÉ=çêáÖáå~ääó=ÄìÇÖÉíÉÇ=
PKU=B=çÑ=damK==qÜÉ=OMNM=_ìÇÖÉí= 2% 50%
éêÉëÉåíÉÇ=áå=ãáÇJcÉÄêì~êó=~ëëìãÉë=~= 0% 40%
% of GDP
% of GDP
å~êêçïáåÖ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÄìÇÖÉí=ÇÉÑáÅáí=íç=SKR= -2% 30%
B=çÑ=dam=áå=cv=OMNM=~åÇ=~=ëíÉ~Çáäó= -4% 20%
ÇÉÅäáåÉ=íç=QKT=B=áå=cvOMNO=Äó= -6% 10%
Åçåí~áåáåÖ=ÖêçïíÜ=çÑ=ÉñéÉåÇáíìêÉëI= -8% 0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
~åÇ=Äó=ê~íáçå~äáëáåÖ=éìÄäáÅ=ëÉêîáÅÉëK==
Budget balance (LHS) Public debt (RHS)
qÜÉ=ÅçìåíÉêÅóÅäáÅ~ä=ÑáëÅ~ä=éçäáÅó=
ÇìêáåÖ=íÜÉ=êÉÅÉëëáçå=Ü~ë=êÉîÉêëÉÇ=êÉÅÉåí=óÉ~êëÛ=éçëáíáîÉ=ÇÉÄí=Çóå~ãáÅë=~åÇ=ïáää=
ëÜ~êéäó=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=íÜÉ=ÇÉÄíJíçJdam=ê~íáç=Ñêçã=PM=B=áå=cv=OMMU=íç=QQ=B=çÑ=dam=áå=cv=
OMNOI=ëíáää=ãçÇÉëíI=íÜçìÖÜI=Åçãé~êÉÇ=ïáíÜ=ã~åó=éÉÉêëK=
=
kÉï=éçäáÅáÉëI=Äìí=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=éçäáÅáÉë=Äêç~Çäó=áåí~ÅíK=^k`JäÉ~ÇÉê=g~ÅçÄ=wìã~=
ÄÉÅ~ãÉ=mêÉëáÇÉåí=ÑçääçïáåÖ=^k`Ûë=ä~åÇëäáÇÉ=îáÅíçêó=áå=^éêáä=OMMV=ÉäÉÅíáçåëK=pçãÉ=
çÄëÉêîÉêë=ÑÉ~êÉÇ=íÜ~í=~=wìã~=éêÉëáÇÉåÅó=ïçìäÇ=êÉëìäí=áå=éçéìäáëí=éçäáÅáÉë=
íÜêÉ~íÉåáåÖ=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=éçäáÅó=Ñê~ãÉïçêâ=çÑ=íÜÉ=éêÉîáçìë=~Çãáåáëíê~íáçåK=_ìí=íÜÉ=
åÉï=íÉ~ãI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=~=åÉï=Ñáå~åÅÉ=ãáåáëíÉê=~åÇ=~=åÉï=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=ÖçîÉêåçêI=Ü~ë=ëç=
Ñ~ê=âÉéí=íÜÉ=éçäáÅó=Ñê~ãÉïçêâ=çÑ=íÜÉ=éêÉîáçìë=~Çãáåáëíê~íáçå=Äêç~Çäó=áåí~ÅíK=qÜÉ=
jÉÇáìã=qÉêã=_ìÇÖÉí=mçäáÅó=pí~íÉãÉåí=Ejq_mpF=çÑ=ä~ëí=lÅíçÄÉê=~åÇ=íÜÉ=OMNM=
_ìÇÖÉí=éêÉëÉåíÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=åÉï=
Unemployment Rate
cáå~åÅÉ=jáåáëíÉê=mê~îáå=dçêÇÜ~å= 25.5
ã~å~ÖÉÇ=íç=ëíêáâÉ=~=Ä~ä~åÅÉ= 25.0
ÄÉíïÉÉå=ÑáëÅ~ä=éêìÇÉåÅÉ=~åÇ=âÉó=
24.5
éêáçêáíáÉë=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=áåÑê~ëíêìÅíìêÉ=
24.0
áåîÉëíãÉåíëI=éçîÉêíó=~ääÉîá~íáçå=
Percent
23.5
~åÇ=áãéêçîáåÖ=íÜÉ=èì~äáíó=çÑ=
23.0
ÉÇìÅ~íáçå=~åÇ=ÜÉ~äíÜ=Å~êÉK==qÜÉ=
tçêäÇ=_~åâ=Et_F=Ü~ë=~äëç=êÉÅÉåíäó= 22.5
áãéêçîÉÇ=~=rpa=PKTRÄå=äç~å=íç= 22.0
bëâçã=EíÜÉ=ëí~íÉ=çïåÉÇ=ÖÉåÉê~íçêF= 21.5
Q1 Q1 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4
íç=ÄìáäÇ=~=Åç~äJÑáêÉ=éä~åí=áå=çêÇÉê= 05 06 07 08 09 10
Source: Reuters EcoWin
íç=~îçáÇ=íÜÉ=Ää~ÅâJçìíë=
ÉñéÉêáÉåÅÉÇ=áå=OMMT=~åÇ=É~êäó=OMMUK=qÜÉ=t_=äç~åI=ïÜáÅÜ=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=ÅêáíáÅáëÉÇ=Äó=
ÉåîáêçåãÉåí~äáëíëI=~áãë=íç=ÄÉåÉÑáí=íÜÉ=éççê=íÜêçìÖÜ=àçÄ=ÅêÉ~íáçå=~åÇ=ãçêÉ=êÉäá~ÄäÉ=
ëìééäó=çÑ=ÉäÉÅíêáÅ~ä=éçïÉêK=vÉíI=ëçÅáçÉÅçåçãáÅ=éêÉëëìêÉ=ëíÉããáåÖ=Ñêçã=ä~êÖÉ=áåÅçãÉ=
áåÉèì~äáíáÉë=~åÇ=ÜáÖÜ=äÉîÉäë=çÑ=ìåÉãéäçóãÉåí=ã~áåäó=~ãçåÖ=éççê=Ää~Åâë=ÅçåíáåìÉ=íç=
éçëÉ=ãÉÇáìãJíÉêã=ÅÜ~ääÉåÖÉëK==qÜ~í=áë=~ÖÖê~î~íÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=êáëâ=çÑ=Äê~áåJÇê~áå=~ë=ã~åó=
ïÉääJÉÇìÅ~íÉÇ=éÉçéäÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ãáÇÇäÉ=Åä~ëë=ÅçåëáÇÉê=äÉ~îáåÖ=íÜÉ=ÅçìåíêóK===
=
^k`=é~êíó=ÇáëÅáéäáåÉ=íÜêÉ~íÉåÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=óçìíÜ=äÉ~ÖìÉK=qÜÉ=ê~ÇáÅ~ä=äÉ~ÇÉê=çÑ=^k`Ûë=
óçìíÜ=äÉ~ÖìÉI=gìäáìë=j~äÉã~I=Ü~ë=Ñçê=ëçãÉ=íáãÉ=ìåëÉííäÉÇ=ÑçêÉáÖå=áåîÉëíçêë=ïáíÜ=
íÜêÉ~íë=íç=å~íáçå~äáëÉ=ãáåÉë=~åÇ=ä~åÇK=oÉÅÉåíäóI=gìäáìë=j~äÉã~=ëíÉééÉÇ=ìé=
ê~ÇáÅ~äáëãI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=~=îáëáí=íç=wáãÄ~ÄïÉ=éê~áëáåÖ=jìÖ~ÄÉÛë=ÅçåíêçîÉêëá~ä=~åÇ=
îáçäÉåí=ä~åÇ=êÉÑçêãK=eÉ=Ü~ë=~äëç=ÇÉÑáÉÇ=~=Åçìêí=çêÇÉê=éêÉîÉåíáåÖ=íÜÉ=ëáåÖáåÖ=çÑ=~å=çäÇ=
2

3. SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis April, 2010
~åíáJ~é~êíÜÉáÇ=êÉëáëí~åÅÉ=ëçåÖ=““pÜççí=íÜÉ=_çÉêÒI=ÑìÉääáåÖ=ê~Åá~ä=íÉåëáçåëK==jê=j~äÉã~I=
Ü~ë=ìåíáä=êÉÅÉåíäó=ÄÉÉå=~å=áãéçêí~åí=~ääó=çÑ=éêÉëáÇÉåí=wìã~=ÜÉäéáåÖ=Üáã=íç=ãçÄáäáëÉ=
ëìééçêí=áå=íÜÉ=äçåÖ=éçïÉê=ëíêìÖÖäÉ=ÄÉíïÉÉå=Üáã=~åÇ=ÑçêãÉê=éêÉëáÇÉåí=qÜ~Äç=jÄÉâáK=
eçïÉîÉêI=wìã~=êÉÅÉåíäó=ï~êåÉÇ=íÜÉ=óçìíÜ=äÉ~ÇÉê=íÜ~í=êÉÅÉåí=ÅçåÇìÅíë=~åÇ=
ëí~íÉãÉåíë=Ü~Ç=ÄÉÉå=““íçí~ääó=~äáÉå=íç=íÜÉ=ÅìäíìêÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=^k`Ò=~åÇ=íÜ~í=Üáë=
áåÇáëÅáéäáåÉ=ïçìäÇ=åçí=ÄÉ=íçäÉê~íÉÇK=qÜÉ=êÉÅÉåí=ãìêÇÉê=çÑ=bìÖÉåÉ=qÉêêÉÛ_ä~åÅÜÉI=~=
ïÜáíÉ=ëìéêÉã~Åáëí=äÉ~ÇÉêI=Ü~ë=~äëç=ê~áëÉÇ=ÅçåÅÉêåë=~Äçìí=îáçäÉåí=ÅêáãÉë=áå=êìê~ä=~êÉ~ë=
~åÇ=ê~Åá~ä=íÉåëáçåëK=aáîáëáçåë=ïáíÜáå=íÜÉ=^k`=~êÉ=ÇÉÉéK=oáî~äêó=ÅçìäÇ=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=áå=íÜÉ=
êìåJìé=íç=áíë=èìáåèÉååá~ä=ÅçåÖêÉëë=áå=OMNOK=kÉñí=ÉäÉÅíáçåë=~êÉ=ëÅÜÉÇìäÉÇ=Ñçê=OMNQK==
=
JJJJ=
=
pçìíÜ=^ÑêáÅ~=áë=êÉÅçîÉêáåÖ=Ñêçã=~=êÉÅÉëëáçå=Ó=íÜÉ=ÇÉÉéÉëí=ëáåÅÉ=íÜÉ=Ñ~ää=çÑ=~é~êíÜÉáÇ=
Äìí=äÉëë=ëÉîÉêÉI=íÜçìÖÜI=íÜ~å=áå=ã~åó=éÉÉêëK=qÜÉ=êÉÅÉëëáçå=Ü~ë=éìí=éêÉëëìêÉ=çå=íÜÉ=
ÄìÇÖÉí=éìëÜáåÖ=ìé=íÜÉ=éìÄäáÅ=ÇÉÄí=äÉîÉä=íç=QM=B=çÑ=damK=få=Åçåíê~ëí=íç=ëçãÉ=éêÉJ
ÉäÉÅíáçå=ÑÉ~êëI=íÜÉ=wìã~=éêÉëáÇÉåÅó=ëáåÅÉ=j~ó=OMMV=Ü~ë=ëç=Ñ~ê=âÉéí=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=éçäáÅáÉë=
Äêç~Çäó=áåí~ÅíI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=ÑáëÅ~ä=éêìÇÉåÅÉ=~åÇ=íÜÉ=áåÑä~íáçå=í~êÖÉíK=eçïÉîÉêI=áå=îáÉï=
çÑ=íÜÉ=ëçÅáçÉÅçåçãáÅ=éêÉëëìêÉI=íÜÉ=~ìíÜçêáíáÉë=Ñ~ÅÉ=~=ÇÉäáÅ~íÉ=í~ëâ=çÑ=Ä~ä~åÅáåÖ=ÑáëÅ~ä=
éêìÇÉåÅÉ=~Ö~áåëí=ëçÅá~ä=~åÇ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ÇÉã~åÇëK=^=ïÉ~âÉåáåÖ=çÑ=íÜÉ=~ìíÜçêáíáÉëÛ=
ÅçããáíãÉåí=íç=éêìÇÉåí=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=éçäáÅáÉë=ïçìäÇ=êáëâ=ê~íáåÖ=ÇçïåÖê~ÇÉë=~åÇ=ÉêçÇÉÇ=
áåîÉëíçê=ÅçåÑáÇÉåÅÉK==qÜ~í=ÅçìäÇ=ÅçãéäáÅ~íÉ=íÜÉ=Ñáå~åÅáåÖ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÅçìåíêóÛë=éÉêëáëíÉåí=
ÉñíÉêå~ä=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=ÇÉÑáÅáíK=få=~ÇÇáíáçåI=éçäáíáÅ~ä=íÉåëáçåë=ÅçìäÇ=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=~ÜÉ~Ç=
çÑ=íÜÉ=^k`=`çåÖêÉëë=áå=OMNO=~åÇ=íÜÉ=OMNQ=ÉäÉÅíáçåë=~ë=~=êÉëìäí=çÑ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=êáî~äêó=
ïáíÜáå=íÜÉ=êìäáåÖ=^k`K==qÜÉëÉ=êáëâë=~êÉ=ãáíáÖ~íÉÇI=íÜçìÖÜI=Äó=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=ÖççÇ=íê~ÅâJ
êÉÅçêÇ=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=çÑ=íÜÉ=åÉï=~Çãáåáëíê~íáçåK==
=
=
How to read the chart? Resilience
hÉó=ÑáÖìêÉë OMNN Moving out from the center 13
11
reduces risk.
mçéìä~íáçå=EãáääáçåëF RN 9
7
5
damLÅ~éáí~=EAF TNRQ Macro balance 3 Liquidity
1
dam=EÅÜ~åÖÉF PKVB
-1
fåÑä~íáçå= RB
`ìêêK^ÅÅK=Ä~ä~åÅÉLdam JRKQB Absence of event
Information
risk
oÉëÉêîÉëLáãéçêíë=EãçåíÜëF R
_ìÇÖÉí=Ä~ä~åÅÉLdam JRKSB South Africa Average EM
dçîÉêåãÉåí=ÇÉÄíLdam QNB
bñíÉêå~ä=ê~íáåÖëW= mÉÉêëW dê~éÜW=qÜÉ=éÉåí~Öçå=ëÜçïë=pçìíÜ=^ÑêáÅ~Dë=êáëâ=
bñíÉêå~ä=ê~íáåÖëW= Graph: The pentagon shows Turkey's risk worse
cáíÅÜW=___HI=åÉÖK _ê~òáä= éêçÑáäÉ=ïÜÉêÉ=áí=ëÅçêÉë=ÄÉííÉê=íÜ~å=~îÉê~ÖÉ=Ñçê=~ää=
cáíÅÜW===__JLéçë than average in all respects including to its
jççÇóDëW=_~~NI=éçëK fåÇá~= ÉãÉêÖáåÖ=ã~êâÉíë=çå=êÉëáäáÉåÅÉ=~åÇ=áåÑçêã~íáçå=
jççÇóDëW=_~P= traditional competitor, Brazil, reflecting weaker
pCmW==___HI=åÉÖK oìëëá~= ïÜáäÉ=áí=ëÅçêÉë=ÄÉäçï=~îÉê~ÖÉ=çå=äáèìáÇáíóI=ã~Åêç=
pCmW==__JLéçë= liquidity, macro balance and absence of event risk.
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4. SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis April, 2010
Key data: 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
GDP (bill. US$) OQT OSO OUT OTV OVO PRP PSP PUT
GDP/capita (US$) RNPV RPUO RUPM RSOS RUOP SVVT TNRQ TRUS
GDP, real (change) RKPB RKSB RKRB PKTB JNKUB OKSB PKVB QKNB
Investments/GDP NTB NUB NVB ONB OOB ONB OOB OOB
Budget balance/GDP JMKOB MKSB MKVB JNKOB JTKPB JSKSB JRKSB JQKUB
Govt debt/GDP PQB POB OSB OQB POB PTB QNB QQB
CPI inflation (%) OKNB PKOB SKNB VKVB TKNB RKUB RKRB QKUB
Money demand (%) NVB ONB NVB NRB RB NQB NQB NOB
Stock prices (%change) OPB QSB PTB JPNB JONB
Interest rates TB UB NMB NOB UB TB VB UB
Exch. Rate ($) SKQ SKU TKM UKP UKQ TKR UKM UKO
Trade/GDP (%) QSB ROB RRB SPB QSB QUB ROB ROB
Oil price (Brent)$ ARR ASR ATP AVU ASO AUN AUS AUV
Billions US $
Export of goods RSKP SRKV TRKV USKN SSKU UPKN VNKS VUKT
Imports of goods RSKS TMKO UNKS VMKS SSKN USKV VRKT NMNKN
Other: JU JNM JNR JNS JNO JNN JNR JOM
Current account JUKS JNPKU JOMKR JOMKN JNNKO JNQKV JNVKR JOOKR
% of GDP JPKRB JRKPB JTKOB JTKOB JPKUB JQKOB JRKQB JRKUB
Net FDI RKS JSKN OKU NNKU UKO NRKP NSKN NSKV
Loan repayments JOKM JPKU JPKQ JOKU JRKN JRKM JQKV JQKS
Net other capital flows NM OU OU NO NP T V NN
Balance of payments RKQ QKR SKR NKM RKM OKN NKN NKO
Reserves NUKS OPKN OVKS PMKS PRKS PTKT PUKU QMKM
Total debt QUKS RVKQ TRKP TNKU URKN UUKT VQKU VOKS
o/w short term debt NRKN OMKS OQKM ORKR ONKT OOKR OQKN OOKR
Source: OEF (Oxford Economic Forecasting) and SEB estimates
Rating history
Fitch BBB BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+
S&P BBB BBB+ BBB+ BBB+ BBB+
Type of government: ANC majority government headed by president Zuma
Next elections Parliamentary and presidential elections 2014.
Other:
Latest PC deal n.a.
Recent IMF programs Compensatory and Contingency Financing Facility (CCFF) in December 1993.
S to c k m a r k e t E x c h a n g e ra te
35000 12
30000 11
25000 10
USD/ZAR
Index
20000 9
15000 8
10000 7
5000 6
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 07 08 09 10
S o u r c e : R e u te r s E c o W i n
C D S , 5 Y e a r , C lo s e , U S D
S o u r c e : R e u te r s E c o W i n
In t e r e s t r a t e s
550 14
500 13
450 12
400 11
Basis point
Percent
350
10
300
9
250
8
200
7
150
6
100 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Jan M ar M ay Jul Sep N ov Jan M ar
09 10 P o lic y R a te s , R e p o R a te
S o u th A fr ic a B ra zil G o v e r n m e n t B e n c h m a r k s , B id , 1 0 Y e a r , Y ie ld , C lo s e
S o u r c e : R e u te r s E c o W i n S o u r c e : R e u te rs E c o W i n
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