The Curious Case of the Inexpert Witness

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A short tutorial to Bayesian probability, in the light of the case of Sally Clark and the misleading use of statistical reasoning by Sir Roy Meadow at her trial.

Education Health & Medicine Technology

The Inexpert Witness ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The Case of Sally Clark ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Publish and be damned ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The Argument ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Independence ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],unless X and Y are independent

The Prosecutor’s Fallacy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Inverse Reasoning ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

A Load of Balls… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Urn A Urn B 999 white 1 black 999 black 1 white P(white ball | urn is A)=0.999, etc

Bayes’ Theorem: Inverse reasoning ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Bayes’ Theorem ,[object Object],[object Object]

Cot-Death Evidence ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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