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Is Grid Parity for Solar Photovoltaics Imminent? Webmeeting March 7, 2008
Experience curves for energy technologies ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Product Life Cycles Classic Gartner Hype Cycle
Relative price trend of modules and systems
Price trend of modules and systems in US$
Small systems are relatively more expensive Grid connection less expensive than off-grid
Annualisation Factors for various interest rates and lifetime
Annual yield per 1 kWp  814 1,249 1,487 kWh/m2/yr Washington 539 788 946 kWh/m2/yr Brussels 932 1,587 1,941 kWh/m2/yr Perth Façade kWh/kWp Roof-top kWh/kWp Global horizontal irradiation Location Output
Does solar electricity need to compete with wholesale or retail electricity prices? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Grid parity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Example ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Market considerations : cost evolution Source   :   Solar   Generation   IV   –   2007,   European   Photovoltaic   Industry   Association   –   Greenpeace Generation costs have reduced by a factor 2 during the past 10 years Before 2020 PV generation cost will match peak power generation cost, and this without any subsidy European Technology Platform has ambitious objectives for 2030 :  Currently PV is widely supported by national subsidies (most of EU countries…)
Market considerations : volume evolution Source   :   Solar   Generation   IV   –   2007,   European   Photovoltaic   Industry   Association   –   Greenpeace Cumulative capacity increased by 35% during the last years What about the future?   European Photovoltaic Industry Association makes several scenarios, which lead to a PV contribution to electricity consumption between  1% and 9% by 2030
Efficiency trends
PV, and its solar alternatives ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Grid Parity for Solar Energy

  • 1. Is Grid Parity for Solar Photovoltaics Imminent? Webmeeting March 7, 2008
  • 2.
  • 3. Product Life Cycles Classic Gartner Hype Cycle
  • 4. Relative price trend of modules and systems
  • 5. Price trend of modules and systems in US$
  • 6. Small systems are relatively more expensive Grid connection less expensive than off-grid
  • 7. Annualisation Factors for various interest rates and lifetime
  • 8. Annual yield per 1 kWp 814 1,249 1,487 kWh/m2/yr Washington 539 788 946 kWh/m2/yr Brussels 932 1,587 1,941 kWh/m2/yr Perth Façade kWh/kWp Roof-top kWh/kWp Global horizontal irradiation Location Output
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12. Market considerations : cost evolution Source : Solar Generation IV – 2007, European Photovoltaic Industry Association – Greenpeace Generation costs have reduced by a factor 2 during the past 10 years Before 2020 PV generation cost will match peak power generation cost, and this without any subsidy European Technology Platform has ambitious objectives for 2030 : Currently PV is widely supported by national subsidies (most of EU countries…)
  • 13. Market considerations : volume evolution Source : Solar Generation IV – 2007, European Photovoltaic Industry Association – Greenpeace Cumulative capacity increased by 35% during the last years What about the future? European Photovoltaic Industry Association makes several scenarios, which lead to a PV contribution to electricity consumption between 1% and 9% by 2030
  • 15.
  • 16.