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HT maize: ex-ante study in Europe

HT maize: ex-ante study in Europe

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E Rodriguez Cerezo E Rodriguez Cerezo Presentation Transcript

  • JRC Brussels on 24 March 2010 – Roundup Ready Maize Symposium 1 Joint Research Centre (JRC) HT maize: ex-ante study in Europe Emilio Rodríguez-Cerezo, Francisco Areal & Laura Riesgo IPTS - Institute for Prospective Technological Studies Seville - Spain http://ipts.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
  • Introduction JRC Brussels on 24 March 2010 – Roundup Ready Maize Symposium 2 Global area of HT maize (1996-2008) 8 7 6 5 Million hectares 4 3 2 1 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: James (1997-2009)
  • Introduction JRC Brussels on 24 March 2010 – Roundup Ready Maize Symposium 3 Countries growing HT maize (2008) <0.1% 5% 2% 2%1% <0.1% 90% USA Canada South Africa Argentina Philippines Honduras Chile Source: James (2009)
  • Introduction JRC Brussels on 24 March 2010 – Roundup Ready Maize Symposium 4 Possible economic impacts of HT maize: - Facilitate adoption of no-tillage systems (cost savings: reduced labour, fuel costs associating with plowing) - Greater management flexibility: ease of use, broad-spectrum herbicides and longer time window for spraying
  • Introduction JRC Brussels on 24 March 2010 – Roundup Ready Maize Symposium 5 2 GM crops authorised in the EU (Bt maize, Amflora potato) Mandatory coexistence measures in the EU EU GM farmers have to implement specific segregation measures
  • Objective JRC Brussels on 24 March 2010 – Roundup Ready Maize Symposium 6 Analysing factors affecting the ex ante adoption of GM crops Focusing on HT oilseed rape and HT maize Effect of coexistence measures on adoption
  • Survey JRC Brussels on 24 March 2010 – Roundup Ready Maize Symposium 7 Questionnaire to EU farmers (Mar-Jul, 2007): HT OSR Czech Republic: 200 Germany: 208 UK: 200 TOTAL: 608 HT maize The low response rate for some of the France: 101 questions included in the analysis Hungary: 100 reduced the number of valid observations Spain: 104 HT OSR: 426 farms TOTAL: 305 HT maize: 280 farms
  • Questionnaire structure JRC Brussels on 24 March 2010 – Roundup Ready Maize Symposium 8 Four sections: 1) Select those farmers that were cropping OSR or maize in 2006 2) Farm characteristics: farm size, hired workers, and machinery 3) Farm management: variety of seeds, use of herbicides and pesticides, price and production, and WTAd questions 4) Socio-demographic data
  • Willingness to Adopt JRC Brussels on 24 March 2010 – Roundup Ready Maize Symposium 9 Farmers were asked whether they would grow HT OSR/HT maize. Respondents could choose amongst 5 ordered alternatives: a) It's very unlikely I would change to HT OSR (HT maize) b) It's somewhat unlikely I would change to HT OSR (HT maize) c) It's uncertain I would change to HT OSR (HT maize) d) It's likely I would change to HT OSR (HT maize) e) It's very likely I would change to HT OSR (HT maize). An ordered probit model was used to estimate the probability of adoption
  • Willingness to Adopt JRC Brussels on 24 March 2010 – Roundup Ready Maize Symposium 10 Ex-ante adoption for HT OSR Czech Republic Germany UK Very unlikely 0.15 0.06 0.10 0.34 0.18 0.26 Somewhat unlikely 0.19 0.12 0.16 Uncertain 0.29 0.25 0.28 Likely 0.31 0.42 0.36 0.37 0.57 0.46 Very likely 0.06 0.15 0.10
  • Conceptual Framework JRC Brussels on 24 March 2010 – Roundup Ready Maize Symposium 11 Ex-ante adoption for HT maize France Hungary Spain Very unlikely 0.12 0.15 0.07 0.35 0.41 0.25 Somewhat unlikely 0.23 0.26 0.18 Uncertain 0.36 0.35 0.36 Likely 0.24 0.21 0.31 0.29 0.24 0.39 Very likely 0.05 0.03 0.08
  • Explanatory variables JRC Brussels on 24 March 2010 – Roundup Ready Maize Symposium 12 Farmers evaluated a number of reasons: Economic reasons (Economic): - 'It guarantees the reduction of losses caused by weed growth‘ - 'It guarantees higher income‘ - 'It reduces weed control costs‘ Environmental impact reduction (Environment): - 'the environmental impact on my farm is reduced because it involves a cut down in herbicides‘ Facilitation of work (Ease): - 'It facilitates my work being a technology that makes cultivation easier'
  • Explanatory variables JRC Brussels on 24 March 2010 – Roundup Ready Maize Symposium 13 Administrative measures (Administra): - 'the plot must be identified in a public register' - 'the neighbouring farmers must be notified‘ - 'if the land is rented, the owner has to be notified‘ - 'it must under public registration for 5 years' Cleaning and segregation of harvest & transport (Technical): - ‘the combine harvester must be thoroughly cleaned both before and after harvesting’ - ‘the compulsory of separate harvesting and transportation’ Insurance policy (Insurance): - 'an insurance policy to cover claims for neighbours‘ Separation distance (Separation): - ‘the distance over which I would stop growing HT OSR/Ht maize is …‘
  • Explanatory variables JRC Brussels on 24 March 2010 – Roundup Ready Maize Symposium 14 Disbelief in GM technology (Disbelief): - 'I do not think there would be an improvement in yield‘ -'I do not think there would be an improvement in financial returns‘ - 'I do not belief in these new products‘ - ‘I prefer not to change the type of crop. I do not really like change‘ - 'I have been advised not to use this type of rape‘ - 'I think it would be difficult to market the grain‘ - ‘It will not be well received by society in general’
  • Explanatory variables JRC Brussels on 24 March 2010 – Roundup Ready Maize Symposium 15 Age High education level (Education) Farm size (Size) Income Germany (GE) Czech Republic (CZ) United Kingdom (UK) Spain (SP) France (FR) Hungary (HU)
  • Explanatory variables JRC Brussels on 24 March 2010 – Roundup Ready Maize Symposium 16 Summary statistics of explanatory variables HT OSR HT maize Explanatory variable Mean SD Mean SD ECONOMIC 0.76 0.41 0.84 0.36 ENVIRONMENT 0.60 0.48 0.69 0.46 EASE 0.83 0.38 0.85 0.36 DISBELIEF 0.35 0.48 0.16 0.36 ADMINISTRA 0.03 0.18 0.01 0.11 TECHNICAL 0.32 0.46 0.29 0.16 SEPARATION 0.54 0.35 0.41 0.49 INSURANCE 0.70 0.47 0.62 0.49 AGE 47.69 11.29 47.61 11.13 EDUCATION 0.42 0.49 0.43 0.50 SIZE 850.79 950.48 269.50 617.28 INCOME 0.25 0.44 0.06 0.50 GE 0.48 0.48 - - CZ 0.29 0.46 - - FR - - 0.33 0.47 SP - - 0.35 0.47
  • Results Ordered probit for HT OSR and HT maize - WTAd - JRC Brussels on 24 March 2010 – Roundup Ready Maize Symposium 17 HT OSR HT maize Explanatory variable Coefficient z-statistic Coefficient z-statistic Constant 1.159*** 3.43 1.133*** 2.62 ECONOMIC 0.560*** 4.10 0.283 1.34 ENVIRONMENT 0.347*** 2.98 0.175 1.06 EASE 0.674*** 4.37 0.459** 2.17 DISBELIEF -0.385*** -3.22 -1.441*** -6.16 ADMINISTRA -0.466 -1.61 -1.303 -1.56 TECHNICAL -0.601*** -4.68 -0.698*** -3.92 SEPARATION -0.211** -1.92 -0.360** -2.45 INSURANCE -0.258** -2.13 -0.344** -2.28 AGE -0.009* -1.93 -0.002 -0.29 EDUCATION 0.261** 2.19 0.167 0.99 SIZE 0.000 -0.61 0.000 0.22 INCOME -0.252** -2.06 -0.442 -1.48 GE 0.284** 1.97 - - CZ -0.231 -1.39 - - FR - - 0.164 0.85 SP - - 0.424** 2.14 Cut-off parameters Cut-off_2 0.63*** 10.52 0.81*** 10.15 Cut-off_3 1.37*** 21.46 1.76*** 20.82 Cut-off_4 2.57*** 29.18 2.86*** 25.13 Log –likelihood -574.88 -366.10 Likelihood Ratio test 165.69*** 138.83*** Pseudo R-squared 0.13 0.16 N 426 280
  • Conclusions JRC Brussels on 24 March 2010 – Roundup Ready Maize Symposium 18 Positive factors: - HT OSR: Economic, environmental issues, ease of use. Socio-demographic variables (Age, education, income) - HT maize: Ease of use Negative factors: HT OSR & HT maize: Coexistence measures, disbelief Country differences: - HT OSR: GE** > UK > CZ - HT maize: SP** > FR > HU
  • Conclusions JRC Brussels on 24 March 2010 – Roundup Ready Maize Symposium 19 Decision on HT adoption in the EU is shaped by the implementation of coexistence measures: Technical measures have large effect on the probability of adopting 25-metre distance and insurance cover lesser impact on farmers' WTAd HT crops
  • Future research JRC Brussels on 24 March 2010 – Roundup Ready Maize Symposium 20 Impacts on inputs use GM adoption in the EU: - Effect of coexistence measures - Effect of efficiency on GM adoption Consumer behaviour on GM products
  • JRC Brussels on 24 March 2010 – Roundup Ready Maize Symposium 21 Baseline Herbicide use for maize Number of herbicide treatments Expenses on herbicides (€/ha) EU EU Obs= 304; Mean= 1.46; Median= 1; SD= 0.52 Obs= 279; Mean= 47.77; Median= 45; SD= 31.98 25 80 24.1% 20.5% 20 60 54.6 % 14.8% Percentage 15 Percentage 44.4 % 40 11.5% 10 6.8% 6.5% 20 5.4% 5 3.2% 1.0 % 1.4% 1.1% 1.4% 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 No. of herbicides treatments 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 Expenses on herbicides (€/ha)
  • JRC Brussels on 24 March 2010 – Roundup Ready Maize Symposium 22 Thank you for your attention!