Chilean great northern grid - Energy landscape

1. Dr. Marcelo Cortés C.
Director of Master in Energy Development
Luis Alvarez V, Miguel Tapia C. Assistant researchers
High Integration of Solar Energy
into Chilean Great Northern Grid
(SING)
Universidad de Antofagasta – 15th January 2014

2. Chilean systems
2
Sistema Interconectado del Norte Grande (SING)
Potencia Instalada : 3698,7 MW
Generación Anual : 15.100 GWh/año
Demanda Máxima : 1998 MW
Cobertura : Arica y Parinacota hasta Antofagasta
Población : 6,22 %
Sistema Interconectado Central (SIC)
Potencia Instalada : 12.147,1 MW
Generación Anual : 43.254,8 GWh/año
Demanda Máxima : 6.482,1 MW
Cobertura : Antofagasta a Los Lagos
Población : 92,23 %
Sistema Eléctrico de Aisén
Potencia Instalada : 40,2 MW
Generación Anual : 121,7 GWh/año
Demanda Máxima : 20,4 MW
Cobertura : Aisén
Población : 0,61 %
Sistema Eléctrico de Magallanes
Potencia Instalada : 98,8 MW
Generación Anual : 268,9 GWh/año
Demanda Máxima : 49,3 MW
Cobertura : Magallanes
Población : 0,93 %
Installed capacity: 3, 6 GW
Energy: 15,1 TWh/yr
Max Load: 2 GW
Load Factor 80%
Installed capacity: 12,1 GW
Energy: 43,2 TWh/yr
Max Load: 6,5 GW
Load Factor 60%
Universidad de Antofagasta – 15th January 2014

3. 3
Great Northern Grid. Installed Capacity 2014
Coal, GNL, Diesel,
Oil 96,7%
3487 MW
Wind 1%
90 MWPV 0,5%
23 MW
Universidad de Antofagasta – 15th January 2014

4. 4
Characteristic of Demand, SING
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
0 50 100 150 200
Demanda[MW]
Hora
Demand Time SING
Week January 1, 2013
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0,0
4,4
8,7
13,1
17,4
21,8
26,1
30,5
34,8
39,2
43,5
47,8
52,2
56,5
60,9
65,2
69,6
73,9
78,3
82,6
87,0
91,3
95,7
Potencia[MW]
Load duration curve SING 2013
Estimation 2013
Load Factor: Fc = 0,80
Prob (Pd > 2000) = 1,13%
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Demanda[MW]
Average hourly demand
curve SING
Med-3*Std
Med+3*Std
Media
Universidad de Antofagasta – 15th January 2014

5. 5
Law 20.698 (2013). Renewables Obligations (RO)
The electric companies (GENCOS) must inject a percentage of their
energy from renewable sources.
5,0
5,0
5,0
5,0
5,5
6,0
6,5
7,0
7,5
8,0
8,5
9,0
9,5
10,0
10,0
5,0
5,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
9,0
10,0
11,0
12,0
13,5
15,0
16,5
18,0
20,0
2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2 0 2 2 2023 2024 2025
ENERGYGENERATEDWITHRENEWABLES[%]
YEARS
20.698 LAW. RENEWABLES OBLIGATIONS (RO)
RO for contracts after
July 1, 2013
RO for contracts
between
Aug 31 2007 and
July 1, 2013
Universidad de Antofagasta – 15th January 2014

6. 6
Great Northern Grid. Future Interconetions
SADI
Salta
Argentina
408 km,
1x345 kV
700 MVA
Built 1999
Don’t working
Restarted 2016
Universidad de Antofagasta – 15th January 2014

7. 7
Great Northern Grid. Future Interconetions
COES
Perú
2x220 kV
400 MVA
stage
negotiations
Maybe 2020?
SADI
Salta
Argentina
408 km,
1x345 kV
700 MVA
Built 1999
Don’t working
Restarted 2016
Universidad de Antofagasta – 15th January 2014

8. 8
Great Northern Grid. Future Interconetions
COES
Perú
2x220 kV
400 MVA
stage
negotiations
Maybe 2020?
SADI
Salta
Argentina
408 km,
1x345 kV
700 MVA
Built 1999
Don’t working
Restarted 2016
AES-Gener
SIC
Chile
580 km,
2x500 kV
2x1500 MVA
2017-2020
Investor EC-L
Universidad de Antofagasta – 15th January 2014

9. 9
Great Northern Grid. Loads forescasts
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
EnergyperyesalSING(TWh)
Proyección CNE Proyección CDEC-SING Base Proyección CDEC-SING Alta
Forecast of electricity demand SING. Source CNE (Energy National
Commission, 2012)
Universidad de Antofagasta – 15th January 2014

10. 10
Great Northern Grid. Future Interconetions
COES
Perú
2x220 kV
400 MVA
stage
negotiations
Maybe 2020?
SADI
Salta
Argentina
408 km,
1x345 kV
700 MVA
Built 1999
Don’t working
Restarted 2016
SIC
Chile
580 km,
2x500 kV
2x1500 MVA
2017
Investor EC-L
Investment,
costs, prices,
profitability,
adequacy,
security
Universidad de Antofagasta – 15th January 2014

11. 11
Solar Energy. Our strategy
Universidad de Antofagasta – 15th January 2014

12. Analyze the integration of large-scale
solar energy in the SING
12
Objetives
Universidad de Antofagasta – 15th January 2014

13. 13
Generation
Planning
• Horizon analysis around of 10 - 30 years
• Determination of the optimal power stations to be installed
(When, Where, How, Type)
Transmission
expansion planning
• Horizon analysis around of 10 - 30 years
• Optimal transmission expansion planning (When, Where,
How, Type)
Operational
planning
• Horizon analysis around de 1 a 20 años
• Determination of operating costs and prices (marginal costs
of energy)
Analysis methodology

14. 14
Minimum
investment
cost,
operation
and fault
Demand
forecasting
Forecast
fuel prices
legal
constraints
Cost
estimation
technologies
Generation planning
Universidad de Antofagasta – 15th January 2014

15. 15
Optimization model for generation planning
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Universidad de Antofagasta – 15th January 2014

16. 16
Futures and scenarios considered
Futures
F1. Developing without renewables obligations
F2. Developing with renewables obligations (20/25)
F3. Developing with natural gas price low
Scenarios (sensibilities)
S1. 10% energy is exported to Argentina (2016)
S2. Central CTM (EC-L) is retired of SING and its
energy injected to SIC (2017)
S3. 10% energy exported to Argentina plus CTM
retired of SING.
Universidad de Antofagasta – 15th January 2014

17. 17Internal workshop - Universidad de Antofagasta – 15th November 2014
Results for diferents futures. Installed capacity
0,2%
0,8%
1,5%
0,0% 2,0%
55,3%
2,2%
3,6%
34,0%
0,3%
Hidro de Pasada
Geotérmica
Eólica
Solar Térmica
Solar Fotovoltaica
Carbón
Diesel
Fuel-Oil
Gas Natural
Cogeneración
0,2%
0,6%
11,8% 0,0%
18,3%
39,5%
1,6%
2,7%
25,1%
0,2%
Hidro de Pasada
Geotérmica
Eólica
Solar Térmica
Solar Fotovoltaica
Carbón
Diesel
Fuel-Oil
Gas Natural
Cogeneración
0,2%
0,8%
1,5%
0,0% 2,0%
41,5%
2,2%3,6%
47,9%
0,3%
Hidro de Pasada
Geotérmica
Eólica
Solar Térmica
Solar Fotovoltaica
Carbón
Diesel
Fuel-Oil
Gas Natural
Cogeneración
0,3%
0,0% 1,9% 0,0%
2,0%
43,8%
2,9%4,7%
44,1%
0,4%
F1, 2014 F1, 2025
F2, 2025 F3, 2025
6203 MW
7912 MW 6203 MW

18. 18
Minimum
cost,
operation
and fault
Demand
forecasting
Forecast
fuel prices
legal
constraints
Maintenance
unit
programs
Medium-term operational planning
Universidad de Antofagasta – 15th January 2014

19. 19
Optimization model for operational planning
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Universidad de Antofagasta – 15th January 2014

20. 20
• A more accurate estimate of the actual
operating costs is required.
• A more accurate estimate of the energy price
(marginal cost or spot prices) is required.
• The daily energy unavailability of the sun
(plants PV) and wind (wind) makes this
analysis even longer obligatory.
Why, Medium-term operational planning?
Universidad de Antofagasta – 15th January 2014

21. 21
Energy generated
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
40.000
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Diesel
Fuel-Oil
Gas Natural
Carbón
Hidro de Pasada
Solar Térmica
Eólica
Cogeneración
Geotérmica
Solar Fotovoltaica
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
40.000
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Diesel
Fuel-Oil
Gas Natural
Carbón
Hidro de Pasada
Solar Térmica
Eólica
Cogeneración
Geotérmica
Solar Fotovoltaica
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
40.000
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Diesel
Fuel-Oil
Gas Natural
Carbón
Hidro de Pasada
Solar Termica
Eólica
Cogeneración
Geotérmica
Solar Fotovoltaica
F1 F2
F3
Universidad de Antofagasta – 15th January 2014

22. 22
Energy generated for different future
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2014
2014
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
2015
2016
2016
2016
2016
2017
2017
2017
2017
2018
2018
2018
2019
2019
2019
2019
2020
2020
2020
2020
2021
2021
2021
2021
2022
2022
2022
2022
2023
2023
2023
2024
2024
2024
2024
2025
2025
2025
2025
CostoMarginal Semanal [USD/MWh]
Costo Marginal Semanal [USD/MWh]
F1; 80,5 USD/MWh aver.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2014
2014
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
2015
2016
2016
2016
2016
2017
2017
2017
2017
2018
2018
2018
2019
2019
2019
2019
2020
2020
2020
2020
2021
2021
2021
2021
2022
2022
2022
2022
2023
2023
2023
2024
2024
2024
2024
CostoMarginal Semanal [USD/MWh]
CostoMarginal Semanal [USD/MWh]
F2; 91,5 USD/MWh aver.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2014
2014
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
2015
2016
2016
2016
2016
2017
2017
2017
2017
2018
2018
2018
2019
2019
2019
2019
2020
2020
2020
2020
2021
2021
2021
2021
2022
2022
2022
2022
2023
2023
2023
2024
2024
2024
2024
2025
2025
2025
2025
CostoMarginal Semanal [USD/MWh]
CostoMarginal Semanal [USD/MWh]
F3; 79.0 USD/MWh aver.
Universidad de Antofagasta – 15th January 2014

23. 23
Energy generated for different scenarios and not RO
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
2015
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2017
2017
2017
2017
2018
2018
2018
2018
2018
2019
2019
2019
2019
2020
2020
2020
2020
2021
2021
2021
2021
2021
2022
2022
2022
2022
2023
2023
2023
2023
2023
2024
2024
2024
2024
2025
2025
2025
2025
Costo Marg. Sem. [USD/MWh] Escenario Base Costo Marg. Sem. CTM· SIC. 2017
Costo Marg. Sem. Export. SADI2016 Costo Marg. Sem. CTM3 SIC + Exp.SADI
Spot prices average
2014-2025
F1
80,51 USD/MWh
F1, S1
98,26 USD/MWh
F1, S2
81,36 USD/MWh
F1, S3
98,90 USD/MWh
F1
F1, S1 F1, S2 F1, S3
Universidad de Antofagasta – 15th January 2014

24. 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
2015
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2017
2017
2017
2017
2018
2018
2018
2018
2018
2019
2019
2019
2019
2020
2020
2020
2020
2021
2021
2021
2021
2021
2022
2022
2022
2022
2023
2023
2023
2023
2023
2024
2024
2024
2024
2025
2025
2025
2025
Costo Marg. Sem. [USD/MWh] Escenario Base Costo Marg. Sem. CTM· SIC. 2017
Costo Marg. Sem. Export. SADI2016 Costo Marg. Sem. CTM3 SIC + Exp.SADI
24
Energy generated for different scenarios with RO
Spot prices average
2014-2025
F2
91,55 USD/MWh
F2, S1
120,67 USD/MWh
F2, S2
100,98 USD/MWh
F2, S3
140,25 USD/MWh
F2
F2, S1 F2, S2 F2, S3
Universidad de Antofagasta – 15th January 2014

25. 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
2015
2016
2016
2016
2016
2016
2017
2017
2017
2017
2018
2018
2018
2018
2018
2019
2019
2019
2019
2020
2020
2020
2020
2021
2021
2021
2021
2021
2022
2022
2022
2022
2023
2023
2023
2023
2023
2024
2024
2024
2024
2025
2025
2025
2025
CostoMarg. Sem.[USD/MWh] Escenario Base CostoMarg. Sem.CTM· SIC. 2017
CostoMarg. Sem.Export. SADI 2016 CostoMarg. Sem.CTM3 SIC + Exp.SADI
25
Energy generated for different scenarios with cheap gas
Spot prices average
2014-2025
F2
79,02 USD/MWh
F2, S1
106,75 USD/MWh
F2, S2
104,32 USD/MWh
F2, S3
161,81 USD/MWh
F3
F3, S1
F3, S2
F3, S3
Universidad de Antofagasta – 15th January 2014

26. 26
Energy generated for different scenarios with cheap gas
Escenario
SinCuotas
ERNC
(BaseCarbón)
ConCuotas
ERNC
(Exigencia
20/25)
SinCuotas
ERNC
(BaseGas)
SinCuotas
ERNC
(Termosolar)
PlandeObras
IndicativoCNE
(2013)
PlandeObras
IndicativoCNE
(2014)
Costo de Inversión [millones. USD] 4.884 7.271 2.571 11.429 3.260 6.506
Demanda Neta Máxima en [MW] 4.120 4.120 4.120 4.120 4.120 3.616
Energía Consumida en [GWh] 288.564 288.564 288.564 288.564 288.564 263.480
Participación de Diesel 0,00% 0,05% 0,03% 0,00% 0,01% 0,07%
Participación de Fuel-Oil 0,01% 0,52% 0,28% 0,09% 0,09% 0,58%
Participación de Gas Natural 12,34% 7,68% 15,41% 10,16% 8,92% 11,77%
Participación de Carbón 82,75% 80,74% 79,48% 74,29% 85,62% 72,36%
Participación de Hidro 0,55% 0,55% 0,55% 0,55% 0,55% 0,58%
Participación de Solar PV 1,29% 3,69% 1,29% 1,29% 1,81% 8,27%
Participación de Eólica 0,96% 4,85% 0,96% 0,96% 1,52% 2,22%
Participación Termosolar 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 10,64% 0,00% 2,18%
Participación de Geotermia 1,37% 1,27% 1,37% 1,37% 0,85% 1,30%
Participación de Otros 0,64% 0,64% 0,64% 0,64% 0,64% 0,68%
Energía No Suministrada 0,00% 0,01% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%
Costo Marginal Promedio [USD/MWh] 80,51 91,55 79,02 74,72 80,09 89,37
Costo Medio de Producción [USD/MWh] 38,01 35,64 37,84 33,62 38,02 37,38
Costo de Operación [millones. USD] 10.970 10.285 10.920 9.704 10.972 9.848
Costo de Inversiones y Operación 15.854 17.556 13.491 21.133 14.232 16.354
Universidad de Antofagasta – 15th January 2014

27. 27
• The renewable obligation produces an increase in
the investment cost, close to 48%.
• The spot price with RO is grader than without RO.
It is produced by long minimum down time and
minimum up time of coal unit of the SING.
• The removal of the CMT unit produces an
increase in the spot price close to 20 USD/MWh.
• Interconnection with Argentina causes an
increase in price close to 10 USD /MWh
Conclusions and Future works
Universidad de Antofagasta – 15th January 2014

28. 28
Future Works
• Study mechanisms to regulate interconnection
• Development a dynamic model for generation
planning.
• Including the uncertainty in the model
• Include the expansion of the transmission
network in analysis
• Include renewable law in operational planning
model
• Include storage models unit commitment model.
Conclusions and Future works
Universidad de Antofagasta – 15th January 2014

29. Year 2015. New, Solar Energy PhD.
Universidad de Antofagasta – 18th December 2014
Thank You for you attention