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Pockets of Rural
Poverty:
Seeing Beyond the
Census Data
Josh King, Land of Sky Regional Council
Karyl Fuller, Isothermal Planning &
Development Commission
Introduction
O Isothermal Planning & Development Commission
(IPDC)
O Council of Government representing four counties
in North Carolina
O They are Cleveland, McDowell, Polk and
Rutherford. All but Cleveland are within ARC
O IPDC provides a variety of services to their
counties including:
O Workforce Development
O Area Agency on Aging
O Grant Services
O Planning Services including staffing Isothermal RPO
Introduction, Cont.
O Disproportionate development patterns
leaving extreme income disparity
O Fast and furious second home growth in
the 2000’s
O Declining manufacturing employment
O Better ways to display and track locally
available knowledge for future planners
O Environmental Justice Compliance tool
Environmental Justice Guides
O Income
O Areas where the Median Household
Income Less than 50% of County’s HUD
Average
O Minority
O Areas where %Minority is 10 points higher
than County Average or Greater than 50%
Map
Problem
O Data Available
O Largely Census
O Economic Data is No Longer Collected during the
Regular Census
O Rather, American Community Survey
O Advantages
O ”New “ Data Available Every Year
O Disadvantages
O Depending on Geography, Only Data Available is 5-
Year Averages
O Sample Size is not 1 in 6 household like the long form.
Each year, ACS attempts to sample 1 in 35-40
households. Even over 5 years, sample 1-12.5
households
Problem
O Size of Geography has
expanded
O In 2000—Block Groups
represented 600 people
O Since 2010— Block
Groups represented
1,500 people. Census
Tracts represented
average of 4,000.
O Because of ACS
sampling, the data is not
reliable at BG level
O Census Tracts provide a
more reliable sample
Problem, Cont.
O Census Tracts are
larger
O The smallest tract in
4-county region is
~1000 acres in
McDowell County.
The largest is
~100,000 acres in
Rutherford County
O Variation is hidden
with the larger area
and population size.
Fewer Census Tract
meet the threshold
Kingstown Example
O Town Facts
O 89.1% Black
O 2010 Median
Household Income:
$31,111
O Total Population: 681
O Census Tract Facts
O 16.9% Black
O 2010 MHHI: $45,250
O Total Population:
6,855
Available Data
O IPDC provides Grant Services to all four
counties including Housing, Urgent
Repair, Infrastructure and Economic
Development. We also provide
Weatherization Services to all 4 counties.
O Most of the Grants require Income
Verification, usually low to moderate
income
O Weatherization has income limits, as well.
Limitations/Issues
O Grant recipients’ addresses are posted.
O However, Weatherization is not.
O Brought in Grant data from 2005-
O Grant recipients usually have liens on their house
for an extended period.
O Small pool of applicants, but have parcel IDs
O Weatherization recipients
O Currently, only 1 Year of data used
O Used Addresses and Geo-coded them Using
Google Maps
O Solution-To use Spatial Analysis tools to both
obscure the individual addresses and highlight the
clusters
Process
O Grant Recipients
O All data was converted to point data
O Compiled/Attributed with Source
O Weatherization Data
O Addresses Only
O Geo-coded Using Google data
O Any data with Accuracy rating less than 8
O Screened, Updated
O Re-Geocoded
Process, Cont.
O Weatherization & Grant Services were
combined
O Using Spatial Analyst, various cell sizes
and search radius were explored.
O Cell size of 2500 ft and Search radius of 2
miles seemed sufficient
Results
Final Map
Comparison
Results Map
Overlay MapResults Map
Final Thoughts
O Related Products—Highlights for
Marketing/Advertising
O Race—Use 2010 Block Group data
O Bring in More Weatherization data
O Technique is scalable to varying degrees
O Continuous search for more income
qualified data
O Aging data can also be used to test against
Census Age data

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King presentation

  • 1. Pockets of Rural Poverty: Seeing Beyond the Census Data Josh King, Land of Sky Regional Council Karyl Fuller, Isothermal Planning & Development Commission
  • 2. Introduction O Isothermal Planning & Development Commission (IPDC) O Council of Government representing four counties in North Carolina O They are Cleveland, McDowell, Polk and Rutherford. All but Cleveland are within ARC O IPDC provides a variety of services to their counties including: O Workforce Development O Area Agency on Aging O Grant Services O Planning Services including staffing Isothermal RPO
  • 3. Introduction, Cont. O Disproportionate development patterns leaving extreme income disparity O Fast and furious second home growth in the 2000’s O Declining manufacturing employment O Better ways to display and track locally available knowledge for future planners O Environmental Justice Compliance tool
  • 4. Environmental Justice Guides O Income O Areas where the Median Household Income Less than 50% of County’s HUD Average O Minority O Areas where %Minority is 10 points higher than County Average or Greater than 50%
  • 5. Map
  • 6. Problem O Data Available O Largely Census O Economic Data is No Longer Collected during the Regular Census O Rather, American Community Survey O Advantages O ”New “ Data Available Every Year O Disadvantages O Depending on Geography, Only Data Available is 5- Year Averages O Sample Size is not 1 in 6 household like the long form. Each year, ACS attempts to sample 1 in 35-40 households. Even over 5 years, sample 1-12.5 households
  • 7. Problem O Size of Geography has expanded O In 2000—Block Groups represented 600 people O Since 2010— Block Groups represented 1,500 people. Census Tracts represented average of 4,000. O Because of ACS sampling, the data is not reliable at BG level O Census Tracts provide a more reliable sample
  • 8. Problem, Cont. O Census Tracts are larger O The smallest tract in 4-county region is ~1000 acres in McDowell County. The largest is ~100,000 acres in Rutherford County O Variation is hidden with the larger area and population size. Fewer Census Tract meet the threshold
  • 9. Kingstown Example O Town Facts O 89.1% Black O 2010 Median Household Income: $31,111 O Total Population: 681 O Census Tract Facts O 16.9% Black O 2010 MHHI: $45,250 O Total Population: 6,855
  • 10. Available Data O IPDC provides Grant Services to all four counties including Housing, Urgent Repair, Infrastructure and Economic Development. We also provide Weatherization Services to all 4 counties. O Most of the Grants require Income Verification, usually low to moderate income O Weatherization has income limits, as well.
  • 11. Limitations/Issues O Grant recipients’ addresses are posted. O However, Weatherization is not. O Brought in Grant data from 2005- O Grant recipients usually have liens on their house for an extended period. O Small pool of applicants, but have parcel IDs O Weatherization recipients O Currently, only 1 Year of data used O Used Addresses and Geo-coded them Using Google Maps O Solution-To use Spatial Analysis tools to both obscure the individual addresses and highlight the clusters
  • 12. Process O Grant Recipients O All data was converted to point data O Compiled/Attributed with Source O Weatherization Data O Addresses Only O Geo-coded Using Google data O Any data with Accuracy rating less than 8 O Screened, Updated O Re-Geocoded
  • 13. Process, Cont. O Weatherization & Grant Services were combined O Using Spatial Analyst, various cell sizes and search radius were explored. O Cell size of 2500 ft and Search radius of 2 miles seemed sufficient
  • 17. Final Thoughts O Related Products—Highlights for Marketing/Advertising O Race—Use 2010 Block Group data O Bring in More Weatherization data O Technique is scalable to varying degrees O Continuous search for more income qualified data O Aging data can also be used to test against Census Age data