Royal Dutch Shell plc delivering new growth - New York investor day September 9, 2011


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Shell’s management hosted an investor day in New York on September 9, 2011, including presentations from Chief Executive Officer Peter Voser and Chief Financial Officer Simon Henry.

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Royal Dutch Shell plc delivering new growth - New York investor day September 9, 2011

  1. 1. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC INVESTOR DAY NEW YORK SEPTEMBER 20111 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  2. 2. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC PETER VOSER CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER2 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  3. 3. DEFINITIONS AND CAUTIONARY NOTEResources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves or SEC proven miningreserves. Resources are consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers 2P and 2C definitions.The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell”are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also usedto refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company orcompanies. ‘‘S b idi i ’’ “Sh ll subsidiaries” and “Sh ll companies” as used i this presentation refer to companies i which R i ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell b idi i ” d “Shell i ” d in hi i f i in hi h Royal D h Shell either di l Dutch Sh ll i h directly or i di l indirectly lhas control, by having either a majority of the voting rights or the right to exercise a controlling influence. The companies in which Shell has significant influence but not controlare referred to as “associated companies” or “associates” and companies in which Shell has joint control are referred to as “jointly controlled entities”. In this presentation,associates and jointly controlled entities are also referred to as “equity-accounted investments”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/orindirect (for example, through our 24% shareholding in Woodside Petroleum Ltd.) ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of allthird-party interest.This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell All statements other than forward looking condition, Shell.statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based onmanagement’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differmaterially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of RoyalDutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statementsare identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, “scheduled”, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘objectives’’,‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘should’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘will’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the futureoperations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward looking statements included in this presentation including forward-looking presentation,(without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results;(e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potentialacquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject tointernational sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial marketconditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays oradvancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained inthis presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on p p yq y y y pforward-looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s Annual Presentation / Form 20-F for the year ended December31, 2010 (available at and ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as ofthe date of this presentation, 9 September 2011. Neither Royal Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-lookingstatement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from theforward-looking statements contained in this presentation.We may have used certain terms in this presentation that United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC.U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website You can also obtain these f formsfrom the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330.3 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  4. 4. ENERGY OUTLOOKGLOBAL ENERGY MIXMln Boe/d Industry outlook400 Hydrocarbons dominate outlook300 Growth required in all sectors of energy mix Energy policy + sustained investment200 Shell100 Crude oil & oil products d l l d Natural gas & LNG 0 Biofuels, wind, carbon capture + storage 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2050 Petrochemicals OIL BIOMASS COAL GAS WIND NUCLEAR SOLAR SHELL ACTIVITIES OTHER RENEWABLESSHELL ESTIMATES4 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  5. 5. LEADER IN A GLOBAL GROWING GAS MARKETGAS DEMAND GROWTH SHELLMln Boe/d30 Traditional LNG +23% +189% gas2520 +29%15 +89% 203510 008 86% +86% 20 5 Gas-to-liquids Tight gas 0 North Europe Asia Middle Other America Pacific EastSOURCE: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY; WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2011 GOLDEN AGE OF GAS5 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  6. 6. SHELL ‘GOAL ZERO’ ON SAFETY Injuries – TRCF per million working hours Million working hours 5 900 4 800 3 700 2 600 1 500 Customer and Profitability & 0 400 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 H1 partner focus performance WORKING HOURS (RHS) TRCF 11 Sustainability & Value added growth technology Focus on personal and process safety Industry leader in Sustainable Development y p EMPLOYEES AND CONTRACTORS PER MILLION WORKING HOURS; SHELL OPERATED FACILITIES6 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  7. 7. STRATEGY & CAPITAL ALLOCATIONSTRATEGY CAPITAL INVESTMENT $ BlnUpstream 150 Profitable P fi bl growth; price upside h i id >80% of total capital spending Sustained exploration investment 100Downstream UPSTREAM Stable capital employed Fewer refineries; upgrade chemicals assets 50 More concentrated marketing positions DOWNSTREAMFinancial outlook 0 2007-10 2011-14 Generating surplus cash flow through cycle Investing for growth; competitive payout Substantial cash flow growth Growth Investment – Through Cycle Returns h h h l7 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  9. 9. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PERFORMANCE FOCUS9 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  10. 10. PERFORMANCE FOCUSCONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT EXAMPLE: CAPITAL EFFICIENCY Asset sales - $ Bln (cumulative) CORPORATE 30 UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM Cost focus 20 10 0 Continuous Operational 07 08 09 10 1H11 Simplification improvement excellence EXAMPLE: WELLS MANUFACTURING JV WITH CNPC Capital efficiency10 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  11. 11. DOWNSTREAM VALUE CHAINS Retail Business-to- Refining Business Supply & Distribution Chemicals Lubricants Chemicals Trading 3 keys to winning Operational excellence – Concentrating the portfolio – Selective growth11 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  12. 12. GLOBAL MARKETING PERFORMANCE MARKETING REFOCUS 100% Refocused portfolio + business model 50% Heartlands + selective growth • Brazil, Asia Pacific, others 0% Brand strength + product innovation g p 09 10 11 12 09 10 11 12 09 10 11 12 09 10 11 12 YTD YTD YTD YTD Retail Lubricants Aviation Fuels Bulk Fuels sites markets markets markets DIRECT INDIRECT/PART EXIT EXITS BRAND STRENGTH #1 GLOBAL MARKETER % Global Brand Preference20 Retail Largest IOC fuels retailer15 # 1 IOC brand preference10 Lubricants # 1 global market share50 Biofuels # 1 IOC Bi f l producer +distributor Biofuels d di ib Q2 2010 Q2 2011 SOURCE: GLOBAL BRAND TRACKER 12 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  13. 13. CHEMICALS PORTFOLIO + PERFORMANCE EARNINGS CCS Earnings - $ Bln Base chemicals and derivatives portfolio 2 Plant integration with refineries l h f 1.5 Growth potential through advantaged 1 feedstock 0.5 05 Product innovation 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 H1 2011 INTEGRATED CHEMICALS USGC BASE CHEMICALS SHIFT TO GAS FEEDS Evolution of USGC industry cash margins + feedstock slate 450 Mossmoran 350 Scotford 250 US Moerdijk/ SADAF Nanhai 150 Total Pernis P i US Gulf feedslate Qatar China 50 Coast Singapore -50 2007 2008 2009 2010 Advantaged Gas Ethane Key site K it Liquids USGC Ethane marginAL JUBAIL PLANT – SAUDI ARABIA Options USGC Naphtha margin CCS EARNINGS EXCLUDING IDENTIFIED ITEMS 13 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  14. 14. REFINING PORTFOLIO + PERFORMANCEFOCUS ON LARGE INTEGRATED SITES IMPROVING PROCESS SAFETYRefinery capacity Kbbl/d (100%) # API process incidents400 EXITS 2002-2011 YTD300200100 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 H1 2011LEAN MANUFACTURING PORTFOLIO REDUCTIONRefining costs index Refinery capacity Mln bbl/d (100%)110% 5 4.7 -30% 4 3.3 -11% 3100% 2 90% 1 0 2002 2006 2009 2011 YTD* 2012 80% 2008 2009 2010 EUROPE & AFRICA AMERICAS ASIA PACIFIC Focus on larger, advantaged sites – Operating performance + costEXCLUDES PORTFOLIO EFFECTS SUBJECT TO SUCCESSFUL COMPLETION OF ANNOUNCED DEALS14 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  15. 15. GROWTH DELIVERYBIOFUELS GROWTH: BRAZILGLOBAL BIOFUELS GROWTH POTENTIAL RAìZEN JOINT VENTUREKboe/d production Marketing JV3,000 SOYBEAN RAPESEED PALM OIL OTHER ~4,500 retail sites; ~10% of Shell world 4,500 10% world-2,000 CORN SUGARCANE wide portfolio ~19% market share in Brazil1,000 Rebranding and enhanced customer offering ff 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 Synergies + growth potentialRAìZEN: LARGEST IOC BIOFUELS PRODUCER Biofuels Bi f l JV Brazilian sugarcane ethanol Leading Brazil and Top 5 global ethanol player lowest CO2 • > 30 kbd ethanol production capacity p p y most sustainable of today’s biofuels • > 80 kbd potential ~ 5 years most cost competitive Shell world-wide trading opportunities 2nd generation technology portfolio15 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  16. 16. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL GROWTH DELIVERY16 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  17. 17. GROWTH DELIVERY CONVERTING RESOURCES TO PRODUCTION Bln Boe resources Longer-term upside35 NA tight gas Australia Cardamom Deep Appomattox Prelude Prelude Vito AOSP debottleneck25 10 8 Pearls (CMOC) 8 Schiehallion Malikai NA tight gas Gorgon Mars-B Clair Ph2 NA tight gas BC-10 Phase215 10 11 11 AOSP-Exp 1 Pearl GTL Sakhalin Gjoa QG-4 BC-10 Perdido P did Schoonebeek h b k 5 9 9 Gbaran Ubie 10 Oman EOR NA tight gas Others-5 5 2008 2009 2010 ON-STREAM UNDER CONSTRUCTION STUDY PRODUCTION 2011 PROGRESS Maintaining U t M i t i i Upstream momentum t 17 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  18. 18. GROWTH DELIVERY2011 START-UPSINNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGY, FULL VALUE CHAIN, LONG-LIFE RETURNS Canada - Scotford upgrader Qatar - Pearl Qatar – Qatargas 4 LNG shipment ~ $30 bln capital investment >400,000 boe/d* for Shell Underpins target for 3.1 - 3.5 mln boe/d 2009-12* PEAK PRODUCTION; SHELL SHARE: $80 OIL PRICE SCENARIO18 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  19. 19. GROWTH DELIVERYLAUNCHING NEW UPSTREAM PROJECTS2010 + 2011 YEAR-TO-DATE INVESTMENT DECISIONS Cardamom – USA Sabah Gas Kebabangan (KBB) - Malaysia 50 kboe/d; 100% Shell 130 kboe/d; 30% Shell; PSC AOSP Debottlenecking Schiehallion 1st FID NA tight gas (various) Cardamom Mars-B Mars-B – USA Sabah Gas KBB Prelude FLNG – Australia 100 kboe/d; 72% Shell 110 kboe/d; 100% Shell BC-10 Phase 2 Prelude FLNG 14 FIDs taken ~400,000 boe/d* potential , / p Driving 3.7 mln boe/d target 2014 and longer term growth* PEAK PRODUCTION; SHELL SHAREENTITLEMENT AT $80/BBL; 2014 OUTLOOK ASSUMES LICENCE EXTENSIONS + 2010 ANNOUNCED ASSET SALES19 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  20. 20. GROWTH DELIVERYDEEPWATER UNDER CONSTRUCTIONMARS-B (GULF OF MEXICO) BC-10 PHASE 2 (CAMPOS, BRAZIL) CARDAMOM (GULF OF MEXICO)Development concept Phase 1 FPSO Surface System and Subsea View TLP capacity ~100 kboe/d Peak production ~30 kboe/d Peak production ~50 kboe/d West Boreas + South Deimos Argonauta O-North field Tie back to Auger platform Water depth W t d th 950 meters t Water depth 1 600 W t d th 1,600 meters t Water depth W t d th 830 meters t Shell 72% (operator) Shell 50% (operator) Shell 100% (operator) Part of >250 kboe/d deepwater production under construction20 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  21. 21. GROWTH DELIVERYAUSTRALIA LNG UNDER CONSTRUCTIONPRELUDE FLOATING LNG GORGON LNG First FID ever on Floating LNG Greenfield LNG on Barrow Island 110 kboe/d peak production 3 x 5 MTPA LNG trains and domestic gas plant 3.6 mtpa LNG capacity + condensate/LPG Carbon capture and storage 4 mtpa 2007 discovery; 2011 FID First LNG in 2014 Shell 100% (operator) Shell 25% Part of 8.3 mtpa under construction21 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  22. 22. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL MATURING NEXT GENERATION PROJECT OPTIONS22 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  23. 23. MATURING NEXT GENERATION OF PROJECT OPTIONSADDING NEW RESOURCESEXPLORATION & BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT ADDING NEW RESOURCES AT LOW COST Bln boe 2008 Canada - Duvernay Kazahkstan - Auezov 2009 Australia – Iago 2 Nigeria - Offshore 6 GoM – Cardamom Australia – Libra 1 <$2/boe entry cost GoM - Vito GoM – West Boreas Brunei – ML-J206T1 Norway – Fram US - Haynesville 4Canada – Groundbirch Australia - Concerto ACQUISITION 2Australia - Arrow DISCOVERY EXPLORATION US - East Resources PROSPECT 0GoM – South Deimos US - Eagle Ford Brazil – Massa GoM – Appomattox Australia - NWS French Guyana -2 Brazil – Gato do Matto China – Tight gas Brunei 08 09 10 2010 Brunei - Geronggong USA - GoM Alaska 2011/12 Brazil - DW EXPLORATION ACQUISITION/NEGOTIATED ENTRY DISPOSALS PRODUCTION23 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  24. 24. DRILLING TECHNOLOGY UNLOCKS NEW GROWTHNORTH AMERICA CHINA + AUSTRALIA JVs WITH PETROCHINA Groundbirch Deep Basin Changbei tight gas Foothills North Shilou CBM Pinedale Marcellus Daning CBM Jinqiu tight gas h Eagle Ford Haynesville JV Fushun tight gasACREAGE TIGHT GAS COAL BED METHANE Arrow Energy LNG China: Changbei drilling rig24 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  25. 25. MATURING NEXT GENERATION OF PROJECT OPTIONSMATURING NEW PROJECTSINVESTMENT OPTIONS Appomattox - USA Arrow - Australia Long-term growth and investment Options to flex annual spending with macro Capex and growth outcomes Tight Gas – N. America Qatar Chemicals Investment decisions driven by Portfolio fit Affordability Profitability Vito - USA Gbaran Ubie Ph2 - Nigeria Portfolio can support profitable growth to ~202025 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  27. 27. INVESTMENT PROGRAMMEUPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM% Capital investment % Capital investment100% 100% 100% EXPLORATION 80% HEAVY OIL & EOR75% 75% TIGHT GAS SOUR 60% DEEPWATER50% 50% 40% INTEGRATED GAS25% 25% 20% TRADITIONAL 0% 0% 0% 2007-10 2011-14 2007-10 2011-14 2007-10 2011-14 OTHERS AMERICAS CHEMICALS MARKETING REFINING EUROPE ASIA PACIFIC Sustained growth investment $25 - $27 bln net capex 2011-2014 Capital discipline2012-14 CAPITAL INVESTMENT EXCLUDES IRAQ FULL FIELD DEVELOPMENTS27 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  28. 28. CONVERTING INVESTMENT TO CASHFLOWINVESTING FOR NEW GROWTH DELIVERING CASHFLOW GROWTH$ Bln 50 $/bbl BRENT60 $80/bbl $96/bbl 40 $60/bbl50 3040 $62/bbl30 2020 1010 0 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2009 H1’11 2012 (12 months rolling) g target g CAPITAL UNDER CONSTRUCTION EXPLORATION & EVALUATION CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS EXCL. NET CAPITAL NET MOVEMENTS IN WORKING CAPITAL INVESTMENT (2009-12 average) Rebalancing financial framework into surplus cashflow Maintaining growth investment and competitive payout CASH FLOW TARGETS ASSUME IMPROVED DOWNSTREAM AND NATURAL GAS ENVIRONMENT 2009- 201228 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  30. 30. COMPETITIVE PAYOUTMAJORS DIVIDEND PAYOUT RATIOS SHELL PAYOUT% $ Bln50 1845 1640 1435 1230 1025 820 615 410 5 2 0 0 COMPETITORS 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 H1 DIVIDENDS DECLARED of which: DECLARED, SCRIP CLEAN EPS, 4 QUARTERS ROLLING TO H1 2011 BUYBACKS30 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  31. 31. MATURING NEW PROJECTS: 2011-12 Alaska Linnorm Schiehallion Redev AOSP Carmon Creek Clair Phase 2Debottlenecking 1st FID Canada Fram Quest CCS Kazakhstan Tempa Rossa China US Onshore Pearls-Khazar Appomattox Majnoon & West Qurna FFD Gulf of Mexico Qatar Chemicals China refining/chemicals Cardamom Deep Oman Stones Fr Guiana Saudi Arabia Vito Philippines Rabab/Harweel Brunei Erha North Ph3 Bonga SW Sabah Gas KBB Malikai Prelude Browse Wheatstone NWS - GWF Arrow Energy LNG Brazil Australia 2011-12 2011-12 2011-12 EXPLORATION FEED TARGET FID TARGET 2011 DELIVERY31 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  32. 32. FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK CASH PERFORMANCE ~50-80% CFFO increase 2009-12 ($60-$80 ($60 $80 oil price scenarios) Surplus cash flow 2012 at $60/bbl INVESTMENT PAY-OUT $25-27 bln net capex /year Dividend linked to results Up to $3 bln asset sales/year Scrip dividend option 2012+ ~$10 billion expected 2011 Affordability, profitability, portfolio BALANCE SHEET 0 – 30% gearing through cycle Balance sheet underpins B l h t d i investment Capital employed grows steadily Competitive returns – cash generation – growth investmentCFFO TARGETS ASSUME IMPROVED DOWNSTREAM AND NATURAL GAS ENVIRONMENT 2009-201232 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  33. 33. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC PETER VOSER CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER33 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  34. 34. OUTLOOKPRIORITIES 2011-12 OUTLOOK Continuous improvement embedded in Shell PERFORMANCE FOCUS Up to $8 billion asset sales; capital efficiency 2011 start-ups: >400kboe/d*; $30bn investment NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION GROWTH Selective Downstream growth On track for 2012 cashflow and production targets MATURING NEXT GENERATION OF >400kboe/d* new projects launched 2010-11 PROJECT OPTIONS Upstream growth potential to ~2020 U t th t ti l t 2020 Competitive performance – Profitable growth – Sharper delivery* PEAK PRODUCTION; SHELL SHARE: $80 OIL PRICE SCENARIO34 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011
  35. 35. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL NEW YORK INVESTOR DAY Q&A35 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011