Rwanda post-compact review: Does Rwanda investment plan meet the Compact long term growth and poverty outcome benchmarks_2010

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"Rwanda post-compact review: Does Rwanda investment plan meet the Compact long term growth and poverty outcome benchmarks?", presentation by John Ulimwengu at the USAID, IFPRI Financial Gap Analysis …

"Rwanda post-compact review: Does Rwanda investment plan meet the Compact long term growth and poverty outcome benchmarks?", presentation by John Ulimwengu at the USAID, IFPRI Financial Gap Analysis Workshop held at the World Bank, January 7, 2010.

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  • 1. IFPRI Rwanda post-compact review: Does Rwanda investment plan meet the Compact long term growth and poverty outcome benchmarks? John Ulimwengu International Food Policy Research Institute USAID/World Bank Workshop on “Agricultural investment priorities and financing gaps for achieving growth and poverty reduction targets: Review of evidence and methodology” January 7, 2010INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 2. Overall objective of post-compact reviewCollectively evaluate(i) the likelihood for the investment programs to realize the growth and poverty reduction prospects laid out in the different strategy scenarios carried out for the roundtable and summarized in the different roundtable brochures;(ii) the use of best practices and other technical guidance in the pillar framework documents in designing investment programs;(iii) the technical realism (alignment of resources with results) and adequacy of institutional arrangements of the programs;(iv) the integration of CAADP principles of inclusive review and dialogue;(v) the consistency with budgetary and development assistance commitments and principles agreed in the compact. IFPRI
  • 3. Key questionsReview the consistency of proposed investment plans with country longterm growth and poverty reduction options: (a) Are current trends in line with expected long term targets for growth, poverty reduction and agricultural funding? (b) Will proposed investment plan:  Achieve the long term growth rates that are required under the different growth and poverty reduction projections;  Raise expenditure levels to meet the funding requirements that were projected under the various scenarios, including progress towards the 10% budget target;  Induce the changes in agricultural exports that were projected and are required for the alternative growth and poverty reduction scenarios to materialize;  Bring about the targeted changes in national as well as disaggregated poverty levels under the different growth and poverty reduction scenarios. IFPRI
  • 4. Aggregate agricultural growth (%)12 PSTA II10 CAADP PSTII Ag GDP (6.5%):8 Lower than expected MDG1-2015 but higher6 MDG1-2015 than CAADP (6%) and pre-compact level4 PRE-COMPACT (4.2%)2 POST- COMPACT0 IFPRI
  • 5. Crop growth rates (%)35.0 POST-COMPACT (2006-2009)30.0 PSTA II  Rice, vegetables, fruits, and maize MDG1-201525.0 are off target;  sweet potatoes,20.0 potatoes, wheat, and bananas are15.0 growing above targeted MDG110.0 levels. 5.0 0.0 IFPRI
  • 6. Growth of agricultural exports (%) POST-COMPACT CAADP/MDG-2015 Hides and skins  In 2008-2009, major exports Pyrethrum growth rates are negative or lower than long term targets except for Tea coffee (+13%) Coffee-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 IFPRI
  • 7. Poverty rates (%)POST-COMPACT PSTA II CAADP MDG1-2015  Poverty rate under PSTA II 63.4 is lower than CAADP but57.6 still higher than MDG1- 2015; 46.6  If PSTA II growth and 42.4 40.7 productivity targets are 37.2 achieved and sustained, 34.0 30.9 MDG1 is achievable by 2020 National Rural IFPRI
  • 8. Agricultural share of total spending PRE- COMPACT PSTA II CAADP MDG1 Low- High- Low- High- elasticity elasticity elasticity elasticity2001-2006 4.9 2010 6.7 6.6 4.4 9.2 5.2 2015 17.6 6.5 34.5 10.0  Government is committed to allocate more funding to agriculture compared to pre-compact period (4.9%). IFPRI
  • 9. Concluding remarks Performance during the post-compact period has, so far, exceeded the long term targets in terms of overall economic and non-agricultural sector growth; In contrast, growth performance in the agricultural sector, while 20% higher than pre-compact levels, is nearly 50% below long term targets; If investment plans are successfully implemented to achieve their implied yield targets for individual sectors, they would meet the required long term growth objectives to realize the poverty MDG by 2020 but not by 2015; There were no data to evaluate post-compact vulnerability trends. It is vital that the necessary arrangements be made to regularly update the baseline household survey information that was used during the pre- compact analysis such as to facilitate tracking of poverty and distributional impacts of the investment plans. IFPRI