Talent Dividend Metrics
                                            A Progress Report


                                  ...
Roadmap
 1.         The Talent Dividend Calculation
 2.         Four Key Metrics
 3.         Years of Post Secondary Educa...
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
Talent




Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
The Hypothesis
 • Better educated metropolitan areas have
   higher incomes
 • Better skilled workers are more innovative
...
0%   10%   20%   30%   40%   50%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
             San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara,...
The Evidence
Education Explains Most Differences in Metro Income
Annual Per Capita Income, 2005

                         ...
Estimating the Gain
 • Each 1% improvement in college
   attainment is associated with a $763
   increase in per capita in...
Make progress at every stage




Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
Additional Evidence for the Talent
                 Dividend
 • President’s Council of Economic Advisors
 • Unemployment R...
Educational Gains Stagnating




                                                   For decades, the number
              ...
Least well educated metros have
         highest unemployment rates




Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
“Social Returns” to Education




   Ed Glaeser: Well-educated metro’s had lower unemployment rates than
   explained by i...
2. Metrics for improving
                          attainment

         •     High School Completion
         •     Colleg...
Different Sources of Data
         – Institutional
                  • Enrollment records
                  • Generated by...
Institutional Measures
 • Administrative records from educational
   institutions
         – Diplomas, Enrollment
 • Repor...
High School Completion
 • Cumulative Promotion Index
 • Product of high school grade level success
   rates:
         – [(...
High School Graduation Rates
                    (CPI Method)
                                                            ...
College Completion
 • Institutions report 6-year graduation rate
   for four-year institutions
 • Data reported by institu...
College Graduation Rates
                                             SDO
                                             COL...
National Student Clearinghouse




Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
Population Measures
 • Data from American Community Survey
 • Two Questions:
         – Attendance
         – Attainment
 ...
MicroData Tabulations




Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
ACS Attendance Question




Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
The ACS
            Attainment
             Question




Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
High School Completion (on time)
 • What percent of 19 year olds report having
   received a high school diploma or GED?
 ...
College Continuation
 • What proportion of 18 to 24 year olds who
   have completed high school are enrolled
   in college...
College Enrollment
                      Percent of 18-24 Year Olds Attending Post-Secondary Education

                  ...
Adult Post-Secondary Education
 • What proportion of 25-44 year olds, who
   have completed high school, but do not
   hav...
Adult Enrollment and Age
                             Enrollment Declines with Age
                             Percent of...
Adult Post-Secondary Attendance
        25 to 44 Year Olds with No Four-Year Degree Attending Post-Secondary Classes



  ...
College Completion
 • What percent of 24 year olds report having
   received a four-year college degree?




Working Draft...
College Completion
                                 24 Year Olds with a Four-year degree or higher
                       ...
Making Use of the Data
 • Where am is my region strong and weak?
 • Who is doing better that I might learn
   from?
 • Are...
Years of Post-Secondary Education

 • Four-year degree attainment rate is too
   simple to capture the “size” of the Talen...
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
YPSE Weights

                Value                                        Years of PSE
                High school gradua...
YPSE v. 4 year attainment
                                       Years of Post-Secondary Education Correlates with BA Atta...
How much effort?
 • Years of Post-Secondary Education
 • Portland: About 100,000 person years of
   additional post-second...
Adding Dynamics
 • Our talent measures are “snapshots”
 • We need to account for movement in and
   out of the working pop...
Dynamics
 • Migration
         – Workers are constantly moving in and out of
           every metropolitan area
 • Retirem...
Migration
 • About 2.7 million working age persons with
   four-year degrees move to a different
   metropolitan area each...
Talent Migration *
                Net In-Migration of Working Aged Adults with a Four-year Degree


                PHI
 ...
Retirement:
                                                             Boomer Talent Exodus
                            ...
Retirement Rate Rising Everywhere
  ATL
 AUS
 CHA
  RAL
  IND
 COL
 MSP
  MIL
 DFW
 MEM
 NAS
 BOS                         ...
• Career counseling – getting employers involved in
  supporting college career paths
• Social marketing
• How to account ...
Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
Typical Improvement
 • Can we move Portland (33.3% college
   attainment to the same level as
 • San Diego (34.2%) or Atla...
Share of 18 to 24 Year Olds Attending College
                                                         Percent of 18 to 24...
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Joe Cortright Talent Dividend Metrics

  1. 1. Talent Dividend Metrics A Progress Report Joe Cortright April 2010 Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  2. 2. Roadmap 1. The Talent Dividend Calculation 2. Four Key Metrics 3. Years of Post Secondary Education 4. Dynamics: Migration, Retirement 5. Next Steps Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  3. 3. Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  4. 4. Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  5. 5. Talent Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  6. 6. The Hypothesis • Better educated metropolitan areas have higher incomes • Better skilled workers are more innovative and productive Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  7. 7. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Raleigh-Cary, NC Austin-Round Rock, TX Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Denver-Aurora, CO New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY- Baltimore-Tow son, MD Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI Columbus, OH Kansas City, MO-KS Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC Richmond, VA Rochester, NY Salt Lake City, UT Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA Indianapolis-Carmel, IN Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Milw aukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA St. Louis, MO-IL Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL Orlando-Kissimmee, FL Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA Houston-Sugar Land-Baytow n, TX Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Pittsburgh, PA Cincinnati-Middletow n, OH-KY-IN Virginia Beach-Norfolk-New port New s, VA-NC Four Year College Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY Oklahoma City, OK Birmingham-Hoover, AL Attainment Rate Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA Jacksonville, FL Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearw ater, FL San Antonio, TX Memphis, TN-MS-AR Louisville-Jefferson County, KY-IN Las Vegas-Paradise, NV Working DraftRiverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  8. 8. The Evidence Education Explains Most Differences in Metro Income Annual Per Capita Income, 2005 NY $50,000 $48,000 SEA $46,000 HAR DEN MIN PHI $44,000 HOU BAL SAN y = 763.27x + 16466 CHI R2 = 0.5846 $42,000 MIA NO DAL LA MIL $40,000 PIT LV DET RIC CHA NASIND STL BIR PRI SAC KC JAC CLE $38,000 CIN POR RAL LOU ROC COL ATL AUS MEMTPA OKC $36,000 VB SLC PHO BUF $34,000 SAT ORL $32,000 $30,000 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Percent of Population with a 4-Year College Degree, 2006 Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010 Sources: BEA (Income), Census (Education)
  9. 9. Estimating the Gain • Each 1% improvement in college attainment is associated with a $763 increase in per capita income for the entire metropolitan area • These education gains are the product of a shift in the entire skill distribution, not just moving 1% past the 4 year mark Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  10. 10. Make progress at every stage Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  11. 11. Additional Evidence for the Talent Dividend • President’s Council of Economic Advisors • Unemployment Rate Differential in the Great Recession Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  12. 12. Educational Gains Stagnating For decades, the number of educated American workers grew faster than did the demand for them. But beginning with the cohort that completed its schooling in the early 1970s, the growth rate in the supply of educated Americans slowed significantly. Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  13. 13. Least well educated metros have highest unemployment rates Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  14. 14. “Social Returns” to Education Ed Glaeser: Well-educated metro’s had lower unemployment rates than explained by individual educational attainment. Poorly educated metros had unemployment rates 1.8 times higher than explained by individual levels of education. Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  15. 15. 2. Metrics for improving attainment • High School Completion • College Continuation • Adult Post-Secondary Education • College Completion Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  16. 16. Different Sources of Data – Institutional • Enrollment records • Generated by schools • Aggregated by others (NCES, NCHEMS, NSC) – Population • Survey data • Gathered by Census Bureau • Covers entire population; sampling variability Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  17. 17. Institutional Measures • Administrative records from educational institutions – Diplomas, Enrollment • Reported to and aggregated by national organizations – NCES, National Student Clearinghouse • High coverage/ Can drill down; but can be vague and anomalous Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  18. 18. High School Completion • Cumulative Promotion Index • Product of high school grade level success rates: – [(9th to 10th %) x (10th to 11th %) x (11th to 12th) % x (12th to Diploma %)] • If 90% are promoted each year – CPI= .9 x .9 x .9 x .9 = 65.1% • Computed from NCES data Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  19. 19. High School Graduation Rates (CPI Method) WAS CIN PDX DET SAC IND NY BAL PHI MEM RIC KC VBN RAL ROC HOU RIV DEN NAS ATL OKC LOU MIL SLC AUS STL SDO JFL BIR CLE SEA TSP LA SJO DFW CHI MSP PHX LV MIA CHA ORL COL SAT SFO BUF 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% Source: Computed from NCES/CCD Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  20. 20. College Completion • Institutions report 6-year graduation rate for four-year institutions • Data reported by institutions, tabulated by IPEDS • We sum by metro area, weighting institutional rates by enrollment for four- year institutions. Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  21. 21. College Graduation Rates SDO COL LA SEA RIC SAC STL ORL ATL CLE ROC JFL BUF AUS TSP NAS BOS MIA VBN BAL PDX RIV PHI OKC CIN HAR DFW NY RAL DET NOLA CHA PIT SLC IND BIR PRO MEM LOU MIL SFO LV KC CHI SAT PHX HOU DEN WAS MSP SJO 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Source: Computed from IPEDS Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  22. 22. National Student Clearinghouse Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  23. 23. Population Measures • Data from American Community Survey • Two Questions: – Attendance – Attainment • Asked of 1% Sample Annually • Use 3-year 2006-2008 pooled sample Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  24. 24. MicroData Tabulations Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  25. 25. ACS Attendance Question Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  26. 26. The ACS Attainment Question Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  27. 27. High School Completion (on time) • What percent of 19 year olds report having received a high school diploma or GED? • Census question makes no distinction between diploma and GED Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  28. 28. College Continuation • What proportion of 18 to 24 year olds who have completed high school are enrolled in college? Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  29. 29. College Enrollment Percent of 18-24 Year Olds Attending Post-Secondary Education SAT PDX CHA HOU MEM LA SJO TSP CIN ROC SEA CLE NAS BUF SLC SDO WAS PIT IND BAL MIL PRO DFW RIC STL HAR LOU SAC OKC COL KC BIR MIA AUS PHX ORL DET PHI JFL VBN NOLA CHI SFO RAL LV DEN RIV ATL MSP NY BOS 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008 Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  30. 30. Adult Post-Secondary Education • What proportion of 25-44 year olds, who have completed high school, but do not have a bachelor’s degree, attended college classes? Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  31. 31. Adult Enrollment and Age Enrollment Declines with Age Percent of Persons with Less than a BA Degree Attending College Classes, by Age 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% Attending College Classes 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2 R = 0.983 0.0% 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Age Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008 Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  32. 32. Adult Post-Secondary Attendance 25 to 44 Year Olds with No Four-Year Degree Attending Post-Secondary Classes RIC KC LA PRO TSP PHX RAL PIT RIV MIL LOU ORL ROC BOS CHI SEA PDX NY PHI HOU COL MIA SAT SJO DFW NAS ATL AUS HAR CLE WAS OKC NOLA CHA CIN MSP STL JFL BAL SLC VBN LV BIR BUF DEN IND MEM DET SFO SDO SAC 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008 Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  33. 33. College Completion • What percent of 24 year olds report having received a four-year college degree? Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  34. 34. College Completion 24 Year Olds with a Four-year degree or higher CHA BOS ROC IND OKC BAL DEN ATL PRO SEA CLE CHI SDO CIN MIL DFW PDX HAR BUF DET RIC BIR MSP SAC TSP ORL NAS NY LV PHX LA STL COL SAT NOLA MEM SJO PHI SLC HOU MIA SFO PIT RIV VBN JFL LOU AUS KC WAS RAL 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008 Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  35. 35. Making Use of the Data • Where am is my region strong and weak? • Who is doing better that I might learn from? • Are there special conditions that affect local performance? Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  36. 36. Years of Post-Secondary Education • Four-year degree attainment rate is too simple to capture the “size” of the Talent Dividend challenge • How much additional education is needed to raise the attanment rate? Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  37. 37. Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  38. 38. YPSE Weights Value Years of PSE High school graduate, or Less 0 Some college, less than 1 year .5 One or more years of college but no degree 1.2 Associate degree 2 Bachelor's degree 4 Master's degree 5 Professional degree 5 Doctorate degree 7 Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  39. 39. YPSE v. 4 year attainment Years of Post-Secondary Education Correlates with BA Attainment y = 0.2097x - 0.0634 2 R = 0.9763 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% BA Attainment Rate 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 YPSE: Years of Post-Secondary Education Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008 Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  40. 40. How much effort? • Years of Post-Secondary Education • Portland: About 100,000 person years of additional post-secondary education to raise the four-year college attainment rate by 1 percentage point. Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  41. 41. Adding Dynamics • Our talent measures are “snapshots” • We need to account for movement in and out of the working population • Movement in time: Retirements • Movement in space: Migration Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  42. 42. Dynamics • Migration – Workers are constantly moving in and out of every metropolitan area • Retirement – Young people are entering the labor force – Older workers are reaching retirement age Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  43. 43. Migration • About 2.7 million working age persons with four-year degrees move to a different metropolitan area each year Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  44. 44. Talent Migration * Net In-Migration of Working Aged Adults with a Four-year Degree PHI CHI JFL MIL BAL LOU SLC PRO CIN VBN DFW TSP NY BUF SFO PIT PDX HAR IND WAS ATL PHX ROC BOS NAS SDO SAT RAL MEM ORL COL SJO HOU CHA LV NOLA DET LA MSP KC RIC SAC RIV SEA AUS -1% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.5% * Not adjusted for international out-migration Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008 Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  45. 45. Retirement: Boomer Talent Exodus Number of College Educated Leaving Will More than Double 1,400,000 1,200,000 College Educated Persons Turning 65 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Year Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  46. 46. Retirement Rate Rising Everywhere ATL AUS CHA RAL IND COL MSP MIL DFW MEM NAS BOS Next Five Years KC CHI DEN Last Five Years DET SEA PRO BIR PDX SJO HOU CIN NY PHI RIC PIT WAS VBN STL SLC LOU BAL NOL HAR SFO BUF CLE LA Percent of Working Aged Adults with ORL a Four-Year Degree or Higher SDO OKC JFL Reaching Retirement Age SAT SAC RIV ROC PHX MIA TSP LV 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% % BA+ Reaching Retirement Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010 Source: American Community Survey, PUMS, 2006-2008
  47. 47. • Career counseling – getting employers involved in supporting college career paths • Social marketing • How to account for non-traditional, part-time students • Value of liberal arts in synergy with vocational • 2 and 4-year institutions working together; also reconciling data on 2-yr 4-yr grad rates • Long term pipeline balance with short term results of TD • Race and ethnicity; come up with better language • Tension between TD as initiative and goal; define short- term strategies to help get big-wins; speed as theme with prototyping as strategy • Compounding value of doing the 1% • Where are the gaps that business community should take on. Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  48. 48. Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  49. 49. Typical Improvement • Can we move Portland (33.3% college attainment to the same level as • San Diego (34.2%) or Atlanta (34.6%) college attainment? • The Portland Talent Dividend $1.6 Billion Annually Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010
  50. 50. Share of 18 to 24 Year Olds Attending College Percent of 18 to 24 year old residents enrolled in college 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Raleigh-Durham Portland Las Vegas Working Draft / Subject to Revision / April 2010

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