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CHAPTER TWENTY-TWO
BOND PORTFOLIO
MANAGEMENT
1
BOND PORTOLIOS
• METHODS OF MANAGEMENT
– Passive
• restson the belief that bond markets are semi-strong
efficient
• current bond prices viewed as accurately reflecting all
publicly available information
2
BOND PORTOLIOS
• METHODS OF MANAGEMENT
– Active
• restson the belief that the market is not so efficient
• some investors have the opportunity to earn above-
average returns
3
BOND PRICING THEOREMS
• 5 BOND PRICING THEOREMS
– for a typical bond making periodic coupon
payments and a terminal principal payment
4
BOND PRICING THEOREMS
• 5 BOND PRICING THEOREMS
– THEOREM 1
• If a bond’s market price increases
• then its yield must decrease
• conversely if a bond’s market price decreases
• then its yield must increase
5
BOND PRICING THEOREMS
• 5 BOND PRICING THEOREMS
– THEOREM 2
• If a bond’s yield doesn’t change over its life,
• then the size of the discount or premium will decrease
as its life shortens
6
BOND PRICING THEOREMS
• 5 BOND PRICING THEOREMS
– THEOREM 3
• If a bond’s yield does not change over its life
• then the size of its discount or premium will decrease
• at an increasing rate as its life shortens
7
BOND PRICING THEOREMS
• 5 BOND PRICING THEOREMS
– THEOREM 4
• A decrease in a bond’s yield will raise the bond’s price
by an amount that is greater in size than the
correspondingfall in the bond’s price that would occur
if there were an equal-sized increase in the bond’s yield
• the price-yield relationship is convex
8
BOND PRICING THEOREMS
• 5 BOND PRICING THEOREMS
– THEOREM 5
• the percentage change in a bond’s price owing to a
change in its yield will be smaller if the coupon rate is
higher
9
CONVEXITY
CONVEXITY DEFINITION:
– a measure of the curvedness of the price-yield
relationship
10
CONVEXITY
• THE PRICE-YIELD RELATIONSHIP
11
YTM
Price
CONVEXITY
• THEOREM 1 TELLS US
– price and yield are inversely related but not in a
linear fashion (see graph)
– an increase in yield is associated with a drop in
bond price
– but the size of the change in price when yield rises
is greater than the size of the price change when
yield falls
12
DURATION
• DEFINITION:
– measures the “average maturity” of a stream of
bond payments
– it is the weighted average time to full recovery of
the principal and interest payments
13
DURATION
• FORMULA
where P0 = the current market price of
the bond
PV(Ct )= the present value of the
couponpayments
t = time periods
14








T
t
t
t
P
CPV
D
1 0
)(
DURATION
• THE RELATION OF DURATION TO PRICE
CHANGES
– THEOREM 5 implies
• bonds with same maturity date but different coupon
rates may react differently to changes in the interest
rate
• duration is a price-risk indicator
15
DURATION
• DURATION IS A PRICE-RISK INDICATOR
– FORMULA
rewritten
where y = the bond’s yield to maturity
16
 )1( ytmD
p
p












y
y
D
p
p
1
DURATION
• MODIFIED DURATION
– FORMULA:
– reflects the bond’s % price change for a one
percent change in the yield
17
y
D
Dm


1
DURATION
• THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CONVEXITY AND
DURATION
– whereas duration would have us believe that the
relationship between yield and price change is
linear
– convexity shows us otherwise
18
DURATION
• THE RELATIONSHIPBETWEEN CONVEXITY AND DURATION
19
YTM
P
C
0
IMMUNIZATION
• DEFINITION: a bond portfolio management
technique which allows the manager to be
relatively certain of a given promised cash
stream
20
IMMUNIZATION
• HOW TO ACCOMPLISH IMMUNIZATION
– Duration of a portfolio of bonds
• equals the weighted average of the individual bond
durations in the portfolio
– Immunization
• calculate the duration of the promised outflows
• invest in a portfolio of bonds with identical durations
21
IMMUNIZATION
• PROBLEMS WITH IMMUNIZATION
– default and call risk ignored
– multiple nonparallel shifts in a nonhorizontal yield
curve
– costly rebalancing ignored
– choosing from a wide range of candidate bond
portfolios is not very easy
22
ACTIVE MANAGEMENT
• TYPES OF ACTIVE MANAGEMENT
– Horizon Analysis
• simple holding period selected for analysis
• possible yield structures at the end of period are
considered
• sensitivities to changes in key assumptions are
estimated
23
ACTIVE MANAGEMENT
• TYPES OF ACTIVE MANAGEMENT
– Bond Swapping
• exchanging bonds to take advantage of superior ability
to predict yields
• Categories:
– substitutionswap
– intermarket spread swap
– rate anticipation swap
– pure yield pickup swap
24
ACTIVE MANAGEMENT
• TYPES OF ACTIVE MANAGEMENT
– Contingent Immunization
• portfolio managed actively as long as favorable results
are obtained
• if unfavorable, then immunize the portfolio
25
PASSIVE MANAGEMENT
• TYPES OF PASSIVE MANAGEMENT
– INDEXATION
• the portfolio is formed to track a chosen index
26

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Bond Portfolio Management Techniques

  • 2. BOND PORTOLIOS • METHODS OF MANAGEMENT – Passive • restson the belief that bond markets are semi-strong efficient • current bond prices viewed as accurately reflecting all publicly available information 2
  • 3. BOND PORTOLIOS • METHODS OF MANAGEMENT – Active • restson the belief that the market is not so efficient • some investors have the opportunity to earn above- average returns 3
  • 4. BOND PRICING THEOREMS • 5 BOND PRICING THEOREMS – for a typical bond making periodic coupon payments and a terminal principal payment 4
  • 5. BOND PRICING THEOREMS • 5 BOND PRICING THEOREMS – THEOREM 1 • If a bond’s market price increases • then its yield must decrease • conversely if a bond’s market price decreases • then its yield must increase 5
  • 6. BOND PRICING THEOREMS • 5 BOND PRICING THEOREMS – THEOREM 2 • If a bond’s yield doesn’t change over its life, • then the size of the discount or premium will decrease as its life shortens 6
  • 7. BOND PRICING THEOREMS • 5 BOND PRICING THEOREMS – THEOREM 3 • If a bond’s yield does not change over its life • then the size of its discount or premium will decrease • at an increasing rate as its life shortens 7
  • 8. BOND PRICING THEOREMS • 5 BOND PRICING THEOREMS – THEOREM 4 • A decrease in a bond’s yield will raise the bond’s price by an amount that is greater in size than the correspondingfall in the bond’s price that would occur if there were an equal-sized increase in the bond’s yield • the price-yield relationship is convex 8
  • 9. BOND PRICING THEOREMS • 5 BOND PRICING THEOREMS – THEOREM 5 • the percentage change in a bond’s price owing to a change in its yield will be smaller if the coupon rate is higher 9
  • 10. CONVEXITY CONVEXITY DEFINITION: – a measure of the curvedness of the price-yield relationship 10
  • 11. CONVEXITY • THE PRICE-YIELD RELATIONSHIP 11 YTM Price
  • 12. CONVEXITY • THEOREM 1 TELLS US – price and yield are inversely related but not in a linear fashion (see graph) – an increase in yield is associated with a drop in bond price – but the size of the change in price when yield rises is greater than the size of the price change when yield falls 12
  • 13. DURATION • DEFINITION: – measures the “average maturity” of a stream of bond payments – it is the weighted average time to full recovery of the principal and interest payments 13
  • 14. DURATION • FORMULA where P0 = the current market price of the bond PV(Ct )= the present value of the couponpayments t = time periods 14         T t t t P CPV D 1 0 )(
  • 15. DURATION • THE RELATION OF DURATION TO PRICE CHANGES – THEOREM 5 implies • bonds with same maturity date but different coupon rates may react differently to changes in the interest rate • duration is a price-risk indicator 15
  • 16. DURATION • DURATION IS A PRICE-RISK INDICATOR – FORMULA rewritten where y = the bond’s yield to maturity 16  )1( ytmD p p             y y D p p 1
  • 17. DURATION • MODIFIED DURATION – FORMULA: – reflects the bond’s % price change for a one percent change in the yield 17 y D Dm   1
  • 18. DURATION • THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CONVEXITY AND DURATION – whereas duration would have us believe that the relationship between yield and price change is linear – convexity shows us otherwise 18
  • 19. DURATION • THE RELATIONSHIPBETWEEN CONVEXITY AND DURATION 19 YTM P C 0
  • 20. IMMUNIZATION • DEFINITION: a bond portfolio management technique which allows the manager to be relatively certain of a given promised cash stream 20
  • 21. IMMUNIZATION • HOW TO ACCOMPLISH IMMUNIZATION – Duration of a portfolio of bonds • equals the weighted average of the individual bond durations in the portfolio – Immunization • calculate the duration of the promised outflows • invest in a portfolio of bonds with identical durations 21
  • 22. IMMUNIZATION • PROBLEMS WITH IMMUNIZATION – default and call risk ignored – multiple nonparallel shifts in a nonhorizontal yield curve – costly rebalancing ignored – choosing from a wide range of candidate bond portfolios is not very easy 22
  • 23. ACTIVE MANAGEMENT • TYPES OF ACTIVE MANAGEMENT – Horizon Analysis • simple holding period selected for analysis • possible yield structures at the end of period are considered • sensitivities to changes in key assumptions are estimated 23
  • 24. ACTIVE MANAGEMENT • TYPES OF ACTIVE MANAGEMENT – Bond Swapping • exchanging bonds to take advantage of superior ability to predict yields • Categories: – substitutionswap – intermarket spread swap – rate anticipation swap – pure yield pickup swap 24
  • 25. ACTIVE MANAGEMENT • TYPES OF ACTIVE MANAGEMENT – Contingent Immunization • portfolio managed actively as long as favorable results are obtained • if unfavorable, then immunize the portfolio 25
  • 26. PASSIVE MANAGEMENT • TYPES OF PASSIVE MANAGEMENT – INDEXATION • the portfolio is formed to track a chosen index 26