3. Key Findings
Findings below are a subset of the complete list available in the report’s executive summary
»» GTM Research expects the Smart Grid to grow from a $5.6 billion dollar market in 2010 to $9.6 billion in 2015
»» AMI is now the largest market segment of Smart Grid with approximately 45% of the total market share.
GTM Research expects AMI’s market share to shrink to 26% by 2015»
»» We expect Distribution Automation (DA) to grow significantly to become the dominant sector of the
smart grid, as a fully networked grid would allow for virtually every piece of grid equipment to have either
automation or remote control»
»» The inability of utilities to adequately explain the benefits of smart meters and other smart grid
technologies to their customers presents an enormous risk for the future of the Smart Grid and to the
vendors in this emerging industry»
»» Some industry experts express great doubt about the smart meter emerging as the gateway into the
home, and suggest a smart meter should be limited to providing just the basic metrology – putting forth the
question: how smart does the meter need to be?»
»» With less than 100 million smart meters currently installed worldwide, the business opportunities for
metering and network players remain substantial over the next few decades. Other than the U.S., the other
3 major markets for smart grid technologies will be the EU, China and India»
»» Because of varying needs and varying legacy systems of utilities, no off-the-shelf end-to-end “smart grid”
solution will suffice. Systems Integrations remains, and will remain for the foreseeable future, one of the
principal challenges of the Smart Grid»
»» GTM Research believes that Home Energy Management Systems and Networks will not receive a critical
level of penetration over the next 5-year period»
»» Any energy management player whose business model is solely tied to the growth and installation of smart
meters appears risky, as it remains questionable if meters will continue to be the gateway into the home over the
long term. Broadband and/or other services could also be the “doorway” to the smart energy consumer.»
»» There are 4 main components of a smart meter that determine its price. They are as follows: 1) the
metrology 2) remote disconnect 3) the “comm board” and 4) the HAN communications board which send the
signal into the home.»
»» Despite all the excitement that surrounds home energy management, we fundamentally remain
unconvinced that home area networks or smart homes will reach a critical mass, or even a meaningful level
of penetration, over the next 5 year period
4. Us sMART gRid MARKeT FOReCAsT: 2010 – 2015
David. J. Leeds | Smart Grid Analyst | GTM Research
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Tate Ishimuro David J. Leeds
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