Us sMART gRid MARKeT FOReCAsT: 2010 – 2015David J. Leeds | Smart Grid Analyst | GTM ResearchThe» pace» of» Smart» Grid» in...
RePORT TABLe OF COnTenTs:1 eXeCUTiVe sUMMARy & Key Findings                                                      Questions...
Key FindingsFindings below are a subset of the complete list available in the report’s executive summary»» GTM Research ex...
Us sMART gRid MARKeT FOReCAsT: 2010 – 2015David. J. Leeds | Smart Grid Analyst | GTM ResearchFax completed order to +1 781...
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Us smart-grid-forecast-2010

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Us smart-grid-forecast-2010

  1. 1. Us sMART gRid MARKeT FOReCAsT: 2010 – 2015David J. Leeds | Smart Grid Analyst | GTM ResearchThe» pace» of» Smart» Grid» integration» and» related» technology» advancement» is» increasing» in» the» US» due» to»looming»generation»burdens»from»renewables»build-out»and»emerging»networked»grid»applications»like»electric»vehicles.»This»new»power»scenario»has»placed»the»onus»on»utilities»to»integrate»Smart»Grid»technology»to»cope»with»load»management»and»next-gen»obstacles»such»as»‘green»blackouts’.»»GTM Research’s Smart Grid Market Forecast , 2010 – 2015 In»this»report,»GTM»Research»anticipates»the» Smart»Grid»market»to»grow»from»$5.6»billion» in»2010»to»$9.6»billion»in»2015.»»We»formulate» this» forecast» by» compiling» outlooks» for» the» following» submarket» segments:» advanced» metering» infrastructure» (AMI),» distribution» automation»(DA),»home»area»networks»(HAN)» and»smart»utility»enterprise.»»In»addition,»the» report» examines» the» factors» that» will» lead» to» continued» smart» meters» rollout» in» the» near» future;» we» anticipate» a» 48%» national» source: GTM Research deployment»by»2015.»Note: Complete forecast data available in the reportHowever,»the»eventual»build-out»of»the»true»Smart»Grid»must»also»include»adding»communications»capabilities»and»intelligence»to»the»actual»distribution»grid,»as»well»as»the»back-end»utility»systems,»in»order»to»make»greatest»use»of»this»newly»generated»data.»»While»these»deployments»will»take»decades»to»reach»full»penetration,»utility»executives»are» beginning» to» recognize» that» a» robust» communications» architecture» will» be» the» backbone» upon» which» all»future»applications»will»be»built,»and»that»without»a»smart»enterprise,»the»nation’s»grids»will»not»be»suffi »»ciently»intelligent»to»proactively»manage»demand,»re-route»power»around»disturbances,»integrate»distributed»renewables»and»electric»transportation,»and»most»importantly,»to»continue»to»offer»reliable»and»affordable»electricity.»» » »US Smart Grid Market Forecast: 2010–2015» analyzes» the» evolving» issues» of» the» Smart» Grid» industry.» » GTM»Research’s» analysis» includes» the» most» critical» market» trends,» a» detailed» forecast» of» the» market» over» the» next»fi»ve»years,»and»provides»an»update»of»our»Smart»Grid»Vendor»Taxonomy,»in»addition»to»offering»insight»into»how» »different»players»and»sub-markets»are»positioned»to»move»forward.»» »
  2. 2. RePORT TABLe OF COnTenTs:1 eXeCUTiVe sUMMARy & Key Findings Questions for Competitive Decision-making:2 gUiding MARKeT insigHTs And TRends How» large» is» the» total» Smart» Grid» market» and» 2.1»Industry»Mega-Themes what»are»the»sizes»of»the»industry’s»sub-markets? 2.2»Advanced»Metering»Infrastructure»(AMI) 2.3»Distribution»Automation»(DA) What» are» the» underlying» costs» of» major» 2.4»Smart»Enterprise components»that»contribute»to»the»Smart»Grid? 2.5»Home-Area»Networks»(HAN)» 2.6»Future»Trends How»will»the»Smart»Grid»evolve»beyond»smart»3 UPdATed sMART gRid TAXOnOMy meter»deployment? 3.1»Introduction Which»applications»and»technologies»will»play» 3.2»Taxonomy:»“Leading»Players»by»Market»» » » »»»»Segment”»»Tier»1 a»greater»role»in»next»phase»grid»build-out? 3.3»Taxonomy:»“Leading»Players»by»Market»» » » »»»»Segment”»Tier»2 Which» Smart» Grid» submarket» is» primed» for»4 sMART gRid MARKeT FOReCAsT 2010–2015, MOdeL business»growth»opportunities»through»2015? AssUMPTiOns & insigHTs What»are»the»best»ways»utilities»can»apply»their» 4.1»Advanced»Meter»Infrastructure»(AMI)»» » resources»to»optimize»Smart»Grid»investments? » »»»Forecast 4.1.1»Meter»Forecast 4.1.2»Meter»Count 4.1.3»Costs 4.1.3.1»Smart»Meters 4.1.3.2»Meter»Install 4.1.3.3»AMI»Network 4.1.3.4»Systems»Integration»and»IT»for»AMI Value-added Elements: 4.1.4»The»AMI»forecast 4.2»Distribution»Automation»(DA)»Forecast Overall» market» outlooks» with» drill» down» to» 4.2.1»Introduction specifi »c»submarket»projections 4.2.2»Methodology 4.2.2.1»Aging»Grid»Assets 4.2.2.2»Rate»of»adoption Bottom-up»forecast»analysis 4.2.2.3»Forecasted»Multiplier 4.2.3»The»Distribution»Automation»Forecast Component» costs» from» smart» meter» 4.3»The»Home»Area»Network»(HAN)»Forecast 4.3.1»Introduction communication»cards»to»capacitor»banks 4.3.2»Smart»Home»Devices 4.3.3»The»Home»Area»Network»Forecast Vendor» implications» within» evolving» Smart» 4.4»The»Smart»Enterprise»Forecast 4.4.1»Introduction Grid»ecosystem 4.4.2»The»Smart»Enterprise»Forecast Competitive» positioning» of» start-ups» and»5 VendOR iMPLiCATiOns & AnALysis market»entrants 5.1»Overview 5.2»The»Development»of»Various»Market»Segments 5.3»Heat»Map»for»Smart»Grid»Vendors
  3. 3. Key FindingsFindings below are a subset of the complete list available in the report’s executive summary»» GTM Research expects the Smart Grid to grow from a $5.6 billion dollar market in 2010 to $9.6 billion in 2015»» AMI is now the largest market segment of Smart Grid with approximately 45% of the total market share. GTM Research expects AMI’s market share to shrink to 26% by 2015»»» We expect Distribution Automation (DA) to grow significantly to become the dominant sector of the smart grid, as a fully networked grid would allow for virtually every piece of grid equipment to have either automation or remote control»»» The inability of utilities to adequately explain the benefits of smart meters and other smart grid technologies to their customers presents an enormous risk for the future of the Smart Grid and to the vendors in this emerging industry»»» Some industry experts express great doubt about the smart meter emerging as the gateway into the home, and suggest a smart meter should be limited to providing just the basic metrology – putting forth the question: how smart does the meter need to be?»»» With less than 100 million smart meters currently installed worldwide, the business opportunities for metering and network players remain substantial over the next few decades. Other than the U.S., the other 3 major markets for smart grid technologies will be the EU, China and India»»» Because of varying needs and varying legacy systems of utilities, no off-the-shelf end-to-end “smart grid” solution will suffice. Systems Integrations remains, and will remain for the foreseeable future, one of the principal challenges of the Smart Grid»»» GTM Research believes that Home Energy Management Systems and Networks will not receive a critical level of penetration over the next 5-year period»»» Any energy management player whose business model is solely tied to the growth and installation of smart meters appears risky, as it remains questionable if meters will continue to be the gateway into the home over the long term. Broadband and/or other services could also be the “doorway” to the smart energy consumer.»»» There are 4 main components of a smart meter that determine its price. They are as follows: 1) the metrology 2) remote disconnect 3) the “comm board” and 4) the HAN communications board which send the signal into the home.»»» Despite all the excitement that surrounds home energy management, we fundamentally remain unconvinced that home area networks or smart homes will reach a critical mass, or even a meaningful level of penetration, over the next 5 year period
  4. 4. Us sMART gRid MARKeT FOReCAsT: 2010 – 2015David. J. Leeds | Smart Grid Analyst | GTM ResearchFax completed order to +1 781 846 0391 US Smart Grid Market Forecast: 2010-2015 Report - Single User License $2995 US Smart Grid Market Forecast: 2010-2015 Report - Enterprise User License $4995Preferred Format PDF Hardcopy (add $100)Payment Method Please send an invoice Credit Card: Amex Mastercard VisaName CompanyStreetCity State CountryZip/Postal Code Phone NumberCredit Card Number Expiration CVVSignature EmailTotal (including shipping) to be charged $ * For shipping outside the U.S, a shipping fee of $100 will be added to the order.For more information visit www.gtmresearch.com Tate Ishimuro David J. LeedsC O N TA C T: Research Sales Associate Smart Grid Analyst ishimuro@greentechmedia.com leeds@gtmresearch.com +1 415 777 9917

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