Dow early warning pub 030512

Quacera L.L.C.
New Perspectives for Investment Decisions
March 5, 2012

Quacera Daily ETF Momentum Summary
5 week momentum momentum trend-line

Market Indexes Momentum Summary
DJIA SP500 NASDAQ
5.00 6.00 9.00
4.80 8.00
5.00
7.00
4.60 4.00 6.00
4.40 5.00
3.00
4.20 4.00
2.00 3.00
4.00
2.00
3.80 1.00
1.00
3.60 0.00 0.00
23-Jan 30-Jan 6-Feb 13-Feb 17-Feb 27-Feb 5-Mar 23-Jan 30-Jan 6-Feb 13-Feb 17-Feb 27-Feb 5-Mar 23-Jan 30-Jan 6-Feb 13-Feb 17-Feb 27-Feb 5-Mar

Bond ETFs
S&P 500 Composite Dow Jones Ave.
NASDAQ Comp.

6.00 6.00 9.00
8.00
5.00 5.00
7.00
4.00 4.00 6.00
5.00
3.00 3.00
4.00
2.00 2.00 3.00
2.00
1.00 1.00
1.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
20-Jan 3-Feb 17-Feb 5-Mar 20-Jan 3-Feb 17-Feb 5-Mar 20-Jan 3-Feb 17-Feb 5-Mar

iShr Intermediate Credit Bond
iShr Invest. Grd Corp (LQD) iShr 1-3 Yr Credit Bonds (CSJ)
(CIU)
2.50 0.60 1.60
1.40
2.00 0.50
1.20
0.40
1.50 1.00
0.30 0.80
1.00 0.60
0.20
0.40
0.50 0.10
0.20
0.00 0.00 0.00

Vanguard Sht Term Corp (VCSH) Lehman High Yield Bond (JNK) PS Emerging Mkt Sovereign Debt
In Dollars (PCY)
1.40 3.00 3.00
1.20 2.50 2.50
2.00
1.00 2.00
1.50
0.80
1.50 1.00
0.60
0.50
1.00
0.40 0.00
0.20 0.50
-0.50
0.00 0.00 -1.00

iShr 20+ Yr Tsy Bond(TLT) PS Short 20+ Tsy Bond-(TBF) PS Ultra Short 20+ yr Tsy(TBT)

1.00 1.00 1.00
0.50 0.00
0.50
0.00
-1.00
0.00 -0.50
-2.00
-0.50 -1.00
-3.00
-1.50
-1.00 -4.00
-2.00
-1.50 -2.50 -5.00

.
Questions or comments? E-mail us at glenn@quacera.com or Call (916) 503-1539

Page No.2
Quacera L.L.C.
March 5, 2012

Bond ETFs
iShr 1-3 Yr Treasury Bond-(SHY) iShr 7-10 Yr Tsy Bond-(IEF) PS Ultra Short 7-10 yr Tsy-(PST)
0.06 0.80 0.00
0.04 0.70
0.02 -0.50
0.60
0.00
-0.02 0.50 -1.00
-0.04 0.40
-0.06 0.30 -1.50
-0.08
0.20
-0.10 -2.00
-0.12 0.10
-0.14 0.00 -2.50

iShr 3-7 Yr Treasury Bond -(IEI) SPDR Lehman Int'l Tsy Bond-
iShr TIPS Bond Fund-(TIP) (BWX)_
0.50 1.40 2.50
0.45 1.20 2.00
0.40
1.00 1.50
0.35
0.30 1.00
0.80
0.25 0.50
0.20 0.60
0.00
0.15 0.40
-0.50
0.10
0.20 -1.00
0.05
0.00 0.00 -1.50

2

Page No.3
Quacera L.L.C.
March 5, 2012

Commodity ETFs
DB Commodity Trackin Index (DBC) . PwrShr Multi-Sector Commodity DB Agriculture Double Long (DAG)
Agriculture (DBA)

6.00 1.00 3.00

5.00 0.50 2.00

4.00 1.00
0.00
3.00 0.00
-0.50
2.00 -1.00
-1.00
1.00 -2.00

0.00 -1.50 -3.00

iPath Grains Total Return (JJG)
iPath Livestock (COW) iPath Sugar Subindex (SSG)

4.50 1.50 6.00
4.00 1.00 5.00
3.50 4.00
0.50
3.00
3.00
2.50 0.00
2.00
2.00 -0.50
1.00
1.50
-1.00 0.00
1.00
0.50 -1.50 -1.00
0.00 -2.00 -2.00

iPath Cotton Subindex (BAL) iPath Coffee Subindex (JO) iPath Coca Subindex (NIB )
4.00 0.00 3.00
3.00 -1.00 2.00
1.00
2.00 -2.00
0.00
1.00 -3.00 -1.00
-4.00 -2.00
0.00
-5.00 -3.00
-1.00 -4.00
-6.00
-2.00 -5.00
-7.00
-6.00
-3.00 -8.00 -7.00
-4.00 -9.00 -8.00

ELEMENTS linked to MLCX Biofuels Index PwrShr Multi-Sector Commodity Metals iPath Copper Subindex (JJC)
(DBB)
(FUE )
1.50 9.00 12.00
8.00
1.00 10.00
7.00
6.00 8.00
0.50
5.00
6.00
4.00
0.00
3.00 4.00
-0.50 2.00
2.00
1.00
-1.00 0.00 0.00

iPath Nickel Subindex (JJN) iPath Aluminum Subindex (JJU) )
ProShr Ultra Short Silver (ZSL)

12.00 7.00 5.00
10.00 6.00 0.00
5.00 -5.00
8.00
4.00 -10.00
6.00
3.00 -15.00
4.00
2.00 -20.00
2.00 1.00 -25.00
0.00 0.00 -30.00

3

Page No.4
Quacera L.L.C.
March 5, 2012

Commodity ETFs (continued)
iShr Silver Trust (SLV) ProShr Ultra Long Silver (AGQ) PwrShr DB Commodity Trust Gold (DGL)

30.00 6.00
14.00
5.00
12.00 20.00
4.00
10.00
10.00 3.00
8.00
6.00 0.00 2.00
4.00 1.00
2.00 -10.00 0.00
0.00 -20.00 -1.00
-2.00 -2.00
-4.00 -30.00
-3.00
-6.00 -4.00
-40.00
-8.00 20-Jan 27-Jan 3-Feb 10-Feb 17-Feb 27-Feb 5-Mar 20-Jan 27-Jan 3-Feb 10-Feb 17-Feb 27-Feb 5-Mar
20-Jan 27-Jan 3-Feb 10-Feb 17-Feb 27-Feb 5-Mar

ProShr Ultra Short Silver (ZSL) SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ)

5.00 6.00 4.00
5.00
0.00 2.00
4.00
-5.00 0.00
3.00
2.00 -2.00
-10.00
1.00 -4.00
-15.00 0.00 -6.00
-20.00 -1.00 -8.00
-2.00 -10.00
-25.00
-3.00 -12.00
-30.00 -4.00 -14.00
20-Jan 27-Jan 3-Feb 10-Feb 17-Feb 27-Feb 5-Mar 20-Jan 27-Jan 3-Feb 10-Feb 17-Feb 27-Feb 5-Mar

DB Gold Short ETN (DGZ) DB Gold Double Long ETN (DGP) iPath Global Carbon (GRN)

3.00 10.00 20.00
2.00 8.00 15.00
1.00 6.00 10.00
0.00 4.00 5.00
-1.00 2.00 0.00
-2.00 0.00 -5.00
-3.00 -2.00 -10.00
-4.00 -4.00 -15.00
-5.00 -6.00 -20.00
-6.00 -8.00 -25.00
-7.00 -10.00 -30.00

ProShr Ultra Short Gold (GLL) ETFS Physical Platinum Shares (PPLT) ProShr Ulta Long Crude Oil (UCO)

4.00 12.00 10.00
2.00 10.00 9.00
0.00 8.00 8.00
-2.00 6.00 7.00
6.00
-4.00 4.00
5.00
-6.00 2.00
4.00
-8.00 0.00 3.00
-10.00 -2.00 2.00
-12.00 -4.00 1.00
-14.00 -6.00 0.00

U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG) U.S. Oil Fund (USO)
PwrShr DB Crude Oil Double Short ETN
(DTO)
0.00 5.00
0.00
4.50
-5.00 4.00 -2.00
3.50 -4.00
-10.00 3.00
2.50 -6.00
-15.00 2.00 -8.00
1.50
-10.00
-20.00 1.00
0.50 -12.00
-25.00 0.00 -14.00

4

Page No.5
Quacera L.L.C.
March 5, 2012

Commodity ETFs (continued)
U.S. Short Oil Fund (DNO) ProShr Ultra Short Crude Oil (SCO) U.S. Heating Oil Fund (UHN)

0.00 0.00
7.00
-1.00 -2.00
6.00
-4.00
-2.00 5.00
-6.00
-3.00 4.00
-8.00
3.00
-4.00
-10.00
2.00
-5.00 -12.00 1.00
-6.00 -14.00
20-Jan 27-Jan 3-Feb 10-Feb 17-Feb 27-Feb 5-Mar 20-Jan 27-Jan 3-Feb 10-Feb 17-Feb 27-Feb 5-Mar 0.00

PwrShr Commodity Trust Energy (DBE) U.S. Gasoline Fund (UGA)
Mkt Vectors Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ)

7.00 12.00 6.00
6.00 10.00 4.00
5.00 2.00
8.00
4.00 0.00
6.00 -2.00
3.00
4.00 -4.00
2.00
-6.00
1.00 2.00
-8.00
0.00 0.00 -10.00

U.S. Heating Oil Fund (UHN)
Mkt Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) Mkt Vectors Steel (SLX)

7.00 3.00 12.00
2.00
6.00 10.00
1.00
5.00 0.00 8.00
4.00 -1.00
-2.00 6.00
3.00 -3.00
-4.00 4.00
2.00
-5.00
1.00 2.00
-6.00
0.00 -7.00 0.00

SPDR Metals and Mining Index (XME) Mkt Vectors Agribusiness (MOO) Guggenheim Timber (CUT)

7.00 8.00 9.00
7.00 8.00
6.00
7.00
5.00 6.00
6.00
5.00
4.00 5.00
4.00 4.00
3.00
3.00 3.00
2.00
2.00 2.00
1.00 1.00 1.00
0.00 0.00 0.00

5

Page No.6
Quacera L.L.C.
March 5, 2012

Currency ETFs
U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund (UUP) U.S. Dollar Bearish Fund (UDN) Euro Trust (FXE)
2.00 2.00
2.00
1.50 1.50
1.00 1.00
1.00
0.50 0.00
0.50
0.00 -1.00
0.00
-0.50 -2.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.00 -3.00
-1.50
-1.50 -2.00 -4.00
-2.00 -2.50 -5.00

Ultra Short Euro (EUO) Japanese Yen (FXY) Ultra Short Japanese Yen (YCS)
8.00 6.00
5.00
6.00 1.50 4.00
1.00 3.00
4.00 0.50 2.00
2.00 0.00 1.00
-0.50 0.00
0.00 -1.00 -1.00
-2.00 -1.50
-2.00
-2.00
-4.00 -3.00
-2.50
-4.00
-6.00 -3.00
20-Jan 3-Feb 17-Feb 5-Mar
20-Jan 3-Feb 17-Feb 5-Mar 20-Jan 3-Feb 17-Feb 5-Mar

Chinese Yuan Fund (CB) Australian Dollar (FXA) Canadian Dollar (FXC)
0.40 4.00 2.50
0.20 3.50
2.00
0.00 3.00
2.50 1.50
-0.20
2.00
-0.40 1.00
1.50
-0.60 1.00
0.50
-0.80 0.50
-1.00 0.00 0.00

Brazilian Real Fund (BZF) British Pound Sterling Trust
Swiss Franc Trust (FXF)
5.00 3.00 2.00
(FXB)
2.00 1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
-5.00 0.50
0.00
-10.00 0.00
-1.00
-0.50
-15.00 -2.00 -1.00
-20.00 -3.00 s -1.50

Indian Rupee (ICN) Swedish Krona Trust (FXS) Mexican Peso Trust (FXM)
4.00 3.00
2.00 2.50 6.00
0.00 2.00 5.00
-2.00 1.50
4.00
-4.00 1.00
-6.00 0.50 3.00
0.00 2.00
-8.00
-0.50
-10.00 -1.00 1.00
-12.00 -1.50 0.00
-14.00 -2.00
20-Jan 3-Feb 17-Feb 5-Mar -1.00

6

Page No.7
Quacera L.L.C.
March 5, 2012

Dow Components
Alcoa (AA) American Express (AXP)
3M Co (MMM) fc
7.00 10.00 8.00
6.00 8.00 7.00
5.00 6.00 6.00
4.00 5.00
4.00
2.00 4.00
3.00
0.00 3.00
2.00
-2.00 2.00
1.00 -4.00 1.00
0.00 -6.00 0.00

AT&T (T) Bank of America (BAC) Boeing (BA)
3.50 30.00 9.00
3.00 8.00
25.00
7.00
2.50 20.00 6.00
2.00 5.00
15.00
1.50 4.00
10.00 3.00
1.00
2.00
0.50 5.00
1.00
0.00 0.00 0.00

Caterpillar (CAT) Chevron (CVX) CISCO Systems (CSCO)
20.00 4.50 8.00
4.00 7.00
15.00 3.50 6.00
3.00 5.00
2.50
10.00 2.00
4.00
1.50 3.00
5.00 1.00 2.00
0.50 1.00
0.00 0.00 0.00

Coca Cola (KO) Du Pont (DD) Exxon (XOM)
2.00 9.00 8.00
8.00 7.00
1.50
7.00 6.00
1.00 6.00
5.00
5.00
0.50 4.00
4.00
0.00 3.00 3.00
2.00 2.00
-0.50
1.00 1.00
-1.00 0.00 0.00

General Electric (GE) Hewlett Packard Co (HPQ) Home Depot (HD)
14.00 8.00 12.00
7.00
12.00 10.00
6.00
10.00 5.00 8.00
8.00 4.00
3.00 6.00
6.00 2.00
1.00 4.00
4.00
0.00 2.00
2.00 -1.00
0.00 -2.00 0.00

7

Page No.8
Quacera L.L.C.
March 5, 2012

Dow Components (continued)
Intel (INTC) IBM (IBM) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
9.00 6.00 1.80
8.00 5.00 1.60
7.00 1.40
4.00 1.20
6.00
3.00 1.00
5.00
4.00
2.00 0.80
1.00 0.60
3.00 0.40
2.00 0.00 0.20
1.00 -1.00 0.00
0.00 -2.00 -0.20

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Kraft Foods (KFT) McDonalds (MCD)
14.00 7.00 7.00
12.00 6.00 6.00
10.00 5.00 5.00
8.00 4.00 4.00
6.00 3.00 3.00
4.00 2.00 2.00
2.00 1.00 1.00
0.00 0.00 0.00

Merck (MRK) Microsoft (MSFT) Pfizer (PFE)
10.00 12.00 10.00
9.00
8.00 10.00 8.00
7.00
6.00
8.00 6.00
5.00 6.00 4.00
4.00
3.00 4.00 2.00
2.00 2.00 0.00
1.00
0.00 0.00 -2.00

Procter & Gamble (PG) Travelers (TRV) United Tech (UTX)
3.00 8.00 10.00
2.50 7.00
2.00 8.00
6.00
1.50 5.00 6.00
1.00
4.00
0.50 4.00
0.00 3.00
-0.50 2.00 2.00
-1.00 1.00
0.00
-1.50 0.00
-2.00 -1.00 -2.00

Verizon (VZ) Wal-Mart (WMT) Walt Disney (DIS)
4.00 6.00 8.80
3.50 8.60
3.00 5.00
8.40
2.50 4.00
2.00 8.20
1.50 3.00 8.00
1.00 7.80
0.50 2.00
7.60
0.00 1.00
-0.50 7.40
-1.00 0.00 7.20

8

Page No.9
Quacera L.L.C.
March 5, 2012

Index ETFs
PwrShr High Yield Equity Vanguard Total Market VIPERs Dow Diamonds (DIA)
Dividend (PEY) (VTI)
4.50 7.00 6.00
4.00 6.00
3.50 5.00
5.00
3.00 4.00
2.50 4.00
2.00 3.00
3.00
1.50 2.00
2.00
1.00
0.50 1.00 1.00
0.00 0.00 0.00

ProShrs Ultra Long Dow 30 ProShrs Ultra Long S&P 500
(DDM) ProShrs Short Dow 30 (DOG)
(SSO)
12.00 0.00 14.00
10.00 -1.00 12.00

8.00 -2.00 10.00

6.00 8.00
-3.00
6.00
4.00 -4.00
4.00
2.00 -5.00
2.00
0.00 -6.00 0.00

ProShrs Short S&P 500 (SH) PwrShr QQQ Trust (QQQ)
ProShrs Ultra Short S&P 500
(SDS)
0.00 0.00 10.00
9.00
-1.00 -2.00
8.00
-2.00 -4.00 7.00
-3.00 -6.00 6.00
5.00
-4.00 -8.00 4.00
-5.00 -10.00 3.00
2.00
-6.00 -12.00
1.00
-7.00 -14.00 0.00

ProShr Ultrat Long QQQ (QLD) ProShr Short QQQ (PSQ) ProShrs Ultra Short QQQ (QID)
20.00 0.00 0.00
18.00 -1.00 -2.00
16.00 -2.00 -4.00
14.00 -3.00 -6.00
12.00 -4.00 -8.00
10.00 -5.00 -10.00
8.00 -6.00 -12.00
6.00 -7.00 -14.00
4.00 -8.00 -16.00
2.00 -9.00 -18.00
0.00 -10.00 -20.00

Short Russell 2000 (RWM) Russell 3000 Growth (IWZ) iShr Russell 1000 Growth (IWF)
0.00 8.00 8.00
-1.00 7.00 7.00
-2.00
6.00 6.00
-3.00
-4.00 5.00 5.00
-5.00 4.00 4.00
-6.00 3.00 3.00
-7.00
2.00 2.00
-8.00
-9.00 1.00 1.00
-10.00 0.00 0.00

9

Page No.
Quacera L.L.C.
March 5, 2012

Index ETFs (Continued)
Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth iShr S&P 500 Growth (IVW) iShr Russell Mid-Cap Growth
(SCHG) (IWP)
9.00 6.00 9.00
8.00 8.00
5.00
7.00 7.00
6.00 4.00 6.00
5.00 5.00
3.00
4.00 4.00
3.00 2.00 3.00
2.00 2.00
1.00
1.00 1.00
0.00 0.00 0.00

iShr Russell 2000 Growth Vanguard Small-Cap Growth
iShr Mid-Cap 400 Growth (IJK)
(IWO) (VBK)
9.00 9.00 9.00
8.00 8.00 8.00
7.00 7.00 7.00
6.00 6.00 6.00
5.00 5.00 5.00
4.00 4.00 4.00
3.00 3.00 3.00
2.00 2.00 2.00
1.00 1.00 1.00
0.00 0.00 0.00

iShr S&P 500 Value (IVE) iShr Russell Mid-Cap Value
iShr Russell 1000 Value (IWD) (IWS)
7.00
6.00 7.00
6.00
6.00
5.00
5.00 5.00
4.00
4.00 4.00
3.00 3.00
3.00
2.00 2.00
2.00 1.00
1.00
1.00 0.00
0.00
0.00

iShr Mid-Cap 400 Value (IJJ) iShr Russell 2000 Value (IWN) Vanguard Small-Cap Value
(VBR)
9.00 9.00 8.00
8.00 8.00 7.00
7.00 7.00 6.00
6.00 6.00
5.00
5.00 5.00
4.00
4.00 4.00
3.00
3.00 3.00
2.00 2.00
2.00
1.00 1.00
1.00
0.00 0.00
0.00

Russell 3000 Value (IWW) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Mid Cap S&P iShr (MDY)
6.00 7.00 9.00
6.00 8.00
5.00
7.00
5.00
4.00 6.00
4.00 5.00
3.00
3.00 4.00
2.00 3.00
2.00
2.00
1.00 1.00 1.00
0.00 0.00 0.00

10

Page No.11
Quacera L.L.C.
March 5, 2012

Index ETFs (Continued)
Mid Cap S&P 400 Ultra Long Mid Cap S&P 400 Short ProShrs Mid Cap S&P 400 Ultra Short
ProShrs (MVV) (MYY) ProShrs (MZZ)
18.00 0.00 0.00
16.00 -1.00 -2.00
14.00 -2.00 -4.00
12.00 -3.00 -6.00
10.00 -4.00 -8.00
8.00 -5.00 -10.00
6.00 -6.00 -12.00
4.00 -7.00 -14.00
2.00 -8.00 -16.00
0.00 -9.00 -18.00

Russell 2000 iShrs (IWM) Russell 2000 Ultra Long ProShrs Russell 2000 Ultra Short Pro
(UWM) Shrs (TWM)
9.00 18.00 0.00
8.00 16.00
7.00 14.00 -5.00
6.00 12.00
5.00 10.00
-10.00
4.00 8.00
3.00 6.00
2.00 4.00 -15.00
1.00 2.00
0.00 0.00 -20.00

11

Dow early warning pub 030512

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