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BASEL III : NEW PARADIGM OF RISK
MANAGEMENT IN BANKING SECTOR




  Purushottam Kumar Karna
  MBA-VTU-3rd sem
  National level Management Conference
  Brindavan College Bangalore
BANKING CRISIS 2008
INDEX



        BASEL III: Introduction

        Evolution of BASEL Accord

        Basel III : Architecture & Key Components

        Timeline proposed for Implementation of BASEL III

        Basel III : Impact on Indian Economy

        Basel III impact on Public Sector Banks

        Basel III impact on Private Banks

        Basel III impact on Foreign Banks
EVOLUTION OF BASEL ACCORDS

                                                                                                    1 Tighter capital definition
                                                                                                    2 Capital buffers
Capital Ratios
and Targets                                                                                         3 Leverage ratio
                                                                                                    4 Higher minimum ratios
                                                                                                    5 Systemic add-on

                                           Pillar-3 Disclosure
                                           Pillar-2 ICAAP                                           6 Counterparty risk
  RWA
  Requirements                             Pillar-1 Operational risk      Incremental risk
                 Pillar-1 Market risk                                  7 Trading book revisions
                 Pillar-1 Credit risk      New Pillar-1 Credit risk       Securitization revision


                                                                                                    8 Coverage ratio
  Liquidity                                                                                         9 Net stable funding ratio
  Standards

                 Tier 1 and 2 definition


                       Basel I                  Basel II                       Basel II.5                   Basel III
KEY BASEL III COMPONENTS

     Areas                       Main Basel III components
   Capital ratios and targets
                                    Capital definition
                                    Countercyclical buffers
                                    Leverage ratio
                                    Minimum capital standards
                                    Systemic risk
   RWA requirements
                                   Counterparty risk
                                   Trading book
   Liquidity standards
                                   Liquidity coverage ratio
                                   Net stable funding ratio
BASEL III ARCHITECTURE
TIMELINE PROPOSED FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF
BASEL III
BASEL III : IMPACT ON INDIAN ECONOMY
   Existing capital ratios of most of Indian banks are
    above the prescribed norms
   Unlikely to be significantly impacted by proposed
    norms
   Systemic important Financial Institution
   Leverage in the Indian banking system is quite
    moderate
   Possibly some negative impact from
       the shifting of deductions from regulatory
        capital to common equity
       large OTC bilateral derivatives positions
BASEL III IMPACT ON PUBLIC SECTOR BANKS




   Initially there will be INR 326 billion deficit under total capital needed by PSU where 469 surplus in
    common equity capital
   Most of the capital deficit in initial year is expected to be maintained through tier II bond.
   In 2017, common equity capital deficit will be reach up to 1718 billion and total capital deficit 2892
    billion.
   By 2019, Indian banking system will require additional capital of 3824 billion for which 70% of total
    capital 2385 billion will be common equity i.e. share capital plus reserve excluding share premium.
BASEL III IMPACT ON PRIVATE BANKS




                              Source: E&Y

Implication:
   Private Banks have sufficient surplus total capital base over the
    implementation period due to higher additional tier I & tier II capital.
   However even private bank will require common equity after 2015.
   The total shortfall for equity capital will reach 540 billion on 2019.
BASEL III IMPACT ON FOREIGN BANKS




                                                                Resource:E&Y




Implication:
   Foreign banks have surplus common equity but are expected to fall short of total capital after
    2014 by 24 billion.
    Foreign banks not tapping local bond market is expected to impact their RoE relative other banks
   Access to corporate bond markets is expected to augment capital base of foreign banks in the
    near term.
   Increased retained earnings also can fulfill the future need of common equity section of capital
CHALLENGES OF BASEL III
 Each percentage point increase in capital ratios will
  reduce economic output by only 0.2% in any one
  year of total GDP output.
 The existence of shadow banking and complex
  OTC derivative, securitized products and off
  balance sheet exposure of toxic assets yet to be
  managed properly.
 Accounting Standard IFRS 9 – still evolving

 Modification of IT systems

 Up gradation of staff skills – capacity building
CONCLUSION : CONCERNS

    Regulator authority RBI must devise policy for holistic
    macro prudential management which addresses SIFI &
    capital adjustments.
   Different type of banks like PSU, Private and Foreign
    banks have their own types of capital deficit need so
    different types strategy will need to be adopted for capital
    acquisition.
   Forward looking provisions like contra cyclical
    provisions, capital conservation buffers will make Banking
    system more resilient.
   Liquidity management facility will absorb liquidity risk
    triggered recent banking crisis of US .
THANK YOU


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Research on Basel 3 :New paradigm of Risk Management

  • 1. BASEL III : NEW PARADIGM OF RISK MANAGEMENT IN BANKING SECTOR Purushottam Kumar Karna MBA-VTU-3rd sem National level Management Conference Brindavan College Bangalore
  • 3. INDEX BASEL III: Introduction Evolution of BASEL Accord Basel III : Architecture & Key Components Timeline proposed for Implementation of BASEL III Basel III : Impact on Indian Economy Basel III impact on Public Sector Banks Basel III impact on Private Banks Basel III impact on Foreign Banks
  • 4. EVOLUTION OF BASEL ACCORDS 1 Tighter capital definition 2 Capital buffers Capital Ratios and Targets 3 Leverage ratio 4 Higher minimum ratios 5 Systemic add-on Pillar-3 Disclosure Pillar-2 ICAAP 6 Counterparty risk RWA Requirements Pillar-1 Operational risk Incremental risk Pillar-1 Market risk 7 Trading book revisions Pillar-1 Credit risk New Pillar-1 Credit risk Securitization revision 8 Coverage ratio Liquidity 9 Net stable funding ratio Standards Tier 1 and 2 definition Basel I Basel II Basel II.5 Basel III
  • 5. KEY BASEL III COMPONENTS Areas Main Basel III components  Capital ratios and targets Capital definition Countercyclical buffers Leverage ratio Minimum capital standards Systemic risk  RWA requirements Counterparty risk Trading book  Liquidity standards Liquidity coverage ratio Net stable funding ratio
  • 7. TIMELINE PROPOSED FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF BASEL III
  • 8. BASEL III : IMPACT ON INDIAN ECONOMY  Existing capital ratios of most of Indian banks are above the prescribed norms  Unlikely to be significantly impacted by proposed norms  Systemic important Financial Institution  Leverage in the Indian banking system is quite moderate  Possibly some negative impact from  the shifting of deductions from regulatory capital to common equity  large OTC bilateral derivatives positions
  • 9. BASEL III IMPACT ON PUBLIC SECTOR BANKS  Initially there will be INR 326 billion deficit under total capital needed by PSU where 469 surplus in common equity capital  Most of the capital deficit in initial year is expected to be maintained through tier II bond.  In 2017, common equity capital deficit will be reach up to 1718 billion and total capital deficit 2892 billion.  By 2019, Indian banking system will require additional capital of 3824 billion for which 70% of total capital 2385 billion will be common equity i.e. share capital plus reserve excluding share premium.
  • 10. BASEL III IMPACT ON PRIVATE BANKS Source: E&Y Implication:  Private Banks have sufficient surplus total capital base over the implementation period due to higher additional tier I & tier II capital.  However even private bank will require common equity after 2015.  The total shortfall for equity capital will reach 540 billion on 2019.
  • 11. BASEL III IMPACT ON FOREIGN BANKS Resource:E&Y Implication:  Foreign banks have surplus common equity but are expected to fall short of total capital after 2014 by 24 billion.  Foreign banks not tapping local bond market is expected to impact their RoE relative other banks  Access to corporate bond markets is expected to augment capital base of foreign banks in the near term.  Increased retained earnings also can fulfill the future need of common equity section of capital
  • 12. CHALLENGES OF BASEL III  Each percentage point increase in capital ratios will reduce economic output by only 0.2% in any one year of total GDP output.  The existence of shadow banking and complex OTC derivative, securitized products and off balance sheet exposure of toxic assets yet to be managed properly.  Accounting Standard IFRS 9 – still evolving  Modification of IT systems  Up gradation of staff skills – capacity building
  • 13. CONCLUSION : CONCERNS  Regulator authority RBI must devise policy for holistic macro prudential management which addresses SIFI & capital adjustments.  Different type of banks like PSU, Private and Foreign banks have their own types of capital deficit need so different types strategy will need to be adopted for capital acquisition.  Forward looking provisions like contra cyclical provisions, capital conservation buffers will make Banking system more resilient.  Liquidity management facility will absorb liquidity risk triggered recent banking crisis of US .