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Game of Phones
Becoming the Architects of Connection
Peter Coffee
VP for Strategic Research
@petercoffee
In 2014, We Could Still Talk About “the Cloud”…
…but we’re not in India (or Ireland)
In 2015, I Could Tell You That The Real Point is Connection
…but that’s no longer news
In 2015, I Could Tell You That The Real Point is Connection
…but that’s no longer news – and cords are being cut
When Curves Cross, “The Right Thing” Changes
From IBM PC in 1981 to HP 6305 (most popular desktop) in 2015
• 4.77 MHz to 3.6 GHz: Compute speed has risen ~20% per year
• 64K to 4 GB: Memory has surged ~40% per year
• 160K to 500 GB: Mass storage tsunami ~50% per year
Desktop systems are burdened with too much state
• File system technology has not addressed new needs
• People can’t find stuff
• People keep redundant and inconsistent copies of stuff
• Governance falls short of rising demands
• People lose stuff
• People share stuff in unknown, unsafe, unauthorized ways
We didn’t build for where we wound up going
• 300 bps to 50 Mbps: Connectivity has grown by ~45% per year
Everyday Thinking Fails to Grasp Exponential Change
Everyday Thinking Fails to Grasp Exponential Change
Everyday Thinking Fails to Grasp Exponential Change
Everyday Thinking Fails to Grasp Exponential Change
This Is Why We’re Talking Less About Devices
Down ~60%
This Year, People Talk About Post-Sale Experience and Value
Revenue Goal: “20% by ’20”
“In this post-sale, on-demand, attention economy, digital
transformation is more than a technology shift, it’s about
transforming business models and how organizations and
brands engage.” – Ray Wang, July 2016
Engagement—and Value—Emerge Through Conversation
Before 23 June 2015, Conversation Was “Eliza”
Before 23 June 2015, Conversation Was “Eliza” – not Alexa
Before 23 June 2015, Conversation Was “Eliza” – not Alexa
We Must Beware: Data Delivery Is Not Agenda-Free…
…and “algorithm” ⇏ “unbiased”
MAY 19, 2016
We Must Beware: Data Delivery Is Not Agenda-Free…
MAY 19, 2016
For That Matter, Mere Data Storage Can Obscure Value
For That Matter, Mere Data Storage Can Obscure Value
Alternative Data Models Enable Superior Processes
Alternative Data Models Enable Superior Processes…
But Trust Rests on Crypto…
But Trust Rests on Crypto…a Shifting Platform
But Trust Rests on Crypto…a Shifting Platform
But Trust Rests on Crypto…a Shifting Platform
…And There Will Be No Value in the Absence of Trust
Have I Mentioned That Doing This is Difficult? Talent Wanted
Don’t Fight for the Chance to Do the Old Things
• Conference Board CEO Challenge, 2016:
- Talent attraction and retention
- Leadership development
- Growth in emerging markets
- New competitive challenges
- Customer engagement
• Don’t wait for someone to write a job description
Start something
• The first follower is what makes a leader
The Prize For Winning: You Get to Live in the Future…
The Prize For Winning: You Get to Live in the Future…
…And Then, You Commute to Now – and Make It Happen
Hacking the Future…Together
“It is my responsibility as a technician
not to simply criticize but to offer
suggestions”
– Lee Felsenstein, Military Editor
The Berkeley Barb (1968)
Quoted in Hackers (Steven Levy, 1984)
“To avert what we have termed future shock, the individual
must become infinitely more adaptable and capable than
ever before… It is no longer resources that limit decisions,
it is the decision that makes the resources” – Alvin Toffler (1971)
Thank you
Peter Coffee
VP for Strategic Research
pcoffee@salesforce.com
@petercoffee
in/petercoffee
Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International

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Game of Phones - Becoming the Architects of Connection (Midwest Dreamin' Closing Keynote 2016)

  • 1. Game of Phones Becoming the Architects of Connection Peter Coffee VP for Strategic Research @petercoffee
  • 2. In 2014, We Could Still Talk About “the Cloud”… …but we’re not in India (or Ireland)
  • 3. In 2015, I Could Tell You That The Real Point is Connection …but that’s no longer news
  • 4. In 2015, I Could Tell You That The Real Point is Connection …but that’s no longer news – and cords are being cut
  • 5. When Curves Cross, “The Right Thing” Changes From IBM PC in 1981 to HP 6305 (most popular desktop) in 2015 • 4.77 MHz to 3.6 GHz: Compute speed has risen ~20% per year • 64K to 4 GB: Memory has surged ~40% per year • 160K to 500 GB: Mass storage tsunami ~50% per year Desktop systems are burdened with too much state • File system technology has not addressed new needs • People can’t find stuff • People keep redundant and inconsistent copies of stuff • Governance falls short of rising demands • People lose stuff • People share stuff in unknown, unsafe, unauthorized ways We didn’t build for where we wound up going • 300 bps to 50 Mbps: Connectivity has grown by ~45% per year
  • 6. Everyday Thinking Fails to Grasp Exponential Change
  • 7. Everyday Thinking Fails to Grasp Exponential Change
  • 8. Everyday Thinking Fails to Grasp Exponential Change
  • 9. Everyday Thinking Fails to Grasp Exponential Change
  • 10. This Is Why We’re Talking Less About Devices Down ~60%
  • 11. This Year, People Talk About Post-Sale Experience and Value Revenue Goal: “20% by ’20” “In this post-sale, on-demand, attention economy, digital transformation is more than a technology shift, it’s about transforming business models and how organizations and brands engage.” – Ray Wang, July 2016
  • 13. Before 23 June 2015, Conversation Was “Eliza”
  • 14. Before 23 June 2015, Conversation Was “Eliza” – not Alexa
  • 15. Before 23 June 2015, Conversation Was “Eliza” – not Alexa
  • 16. We Must Beware: Data Delivery Is Not Agenda-Free… …and “algorithm” ⇏ “unbiased” MAY 19, 2016
  • 17. We Must Beware: Data Delivery Is Not Agenda-Free… MAY 19, 2016
  • 18. For That Matter, Mere Data Storage Can Obscure Value
  • 19. For That Matter, Mere Data Storage Can Obscure Value
  • 20. Alternative Data Models Enable Superior Processes
  • 21. Alternative Data Models Enable Superior Processes…
  • 22. But Trust Rests on Crypto…
  • 23. But Trust Rests on Crypto…a Shifting Platform
  • 24. But Trust Rests on Crypto…a Shifting Platform
  • 25. But Trust Rests on Crypto…a Shifting Platform
  • 26. …And There Will Be No Value in the Absence of Trust
  • 27. Have I Mentioned That Doing This is Difficult? Talent Wanted
  • 28. Don’t Fight for the Chance to Do the Old Things • Conference Board CEO Challenge, 2016: - Talent attraction and retention - Leadership development - Growth in emerging markets - New competitive challenges - Customer engagement • Don’t wait for someone to write a job description Start something • The first follower is what makes a leader
  • 29. The Prize For Winning: You Get to Live in the Future…
  • 30. The Prize For Winning: You Get to Live in the Future…
  • 31. …And Then, You Commute to Now – and Make It Happen
  • 32. Hacking the Future…Together “It is my responsibility as a technician not to simply criticize but to offer suggestions” – Lee Felsenstein, Military Editor The Berkeley Barb (1968) Quoted in Hackers (Steven Levy, 1984) “To avert what we have termed future shock, the individual must become infinitely more adaptable and capable than ever before… It is no longer resources that limit decisions, it is the decision that makes the resources” – Alvin Toffler (1971)
  • 33. Thank you Peter Coffee VP for Strategic Research pcoffee@salesforce.com @petercoffee in/petercoffee Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International