ดร. นเรศ ดำรงชัย สวทน. email@example.com open up the world กรอบความร่วมมือกับต่างประเทศในบริบทของแผน วทน.2555-2564
the world is changing Source: Latest Shocking Earthquake Tsunami Japan @slideshare.net
The Black Swan Theory The disproportionate role of high-impact, hard to predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities) The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs
Will the nuclear crisis be contained? If it is not, or if Tokyo is drawn in, all bets on economic impact are off Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Japan’s twin disasters: What we know we don’t know (2011) 4
Dr. Nares Damrongchai @2010 Please do not circulate outside APEC ISTWG 8 factor-driven innovation-driven efficiency-driven Countries Stage of Development Source: WEF Global Competitiveness Report (2010)
2. เพื่อรับมือกับปัญหาใหญ่ ๆ ที่ท้าทายโลก ....ที่เรารับมือคนเดียวไม่ไหว Photo from Flickr.com All rights reserved by Fadzly
Futures of Low Carbon Society Zayan Masood, 11 yrs old, Bangladesh http://theglobalcommonsproject.wordpress.com/2008/12/10/the-sharp-edge-of-climate-change/
technology need assessment …on areas that are expected to be impacted by climate change in Thailand
How do you imagine the ASEAN Community to be like in 2015? ASEAN Community ASEAN Political-Security Community (APSC) ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community (ASCC) Narrowing the Development GAP (NDG)
ASEAN at a glance: Facts and Figures (2009) Country Land Area (km2) Population (‘000) GDP (USD million) FDI (USD million) Total Trade (USD million) GDP (per capita) Brunei Darussalam 5,765 406.2 14,146.7 176.8 9,568.2 34,827.0 Cambodia 181,035 14,957.8 10,368.2 530.2 8,886.7 693.2 Indonesia 1,860,360 231,369.5 546,527.0 4,876.8 213,339.2 2,362.1 Lao PDR 236,800 5,922.1 5,579.2 318.6 2,962.1 942.1 Malaysia 330,252 28,306.7 193,107.7 1,381.0 280,221.4 6,822.1 Myanmar 676,577 59,534.3 24,972.8 578.6 10,191.3 419.5 Philippines 300,000 92,226.6 161,357.6 1,948.0 83,868.6 1,749.6 Singapore 710 4,987.6 182,701.7 16,256.2 515,617.1 36,631.2 Thailand 513,120 66,903.0 264,322.8 5,956.9 286,266.8 3,950.8 Viet Nam 331,051 86,024.6 96,317.1 7,600.0 25,921.9 1,104.2 ASEAN 4,435,670 590,638.3 1,499,400.8 39,623.0 1,536,843.3 2,533.5 2% of world GDP 10% of world population
ความเหลื่อมล้ำในอาเซียน Photo from Flickr.com All rights reserved by liber
How much can you use knowledge for development? Singapore, Malaysia and Thailandrank highest regarding their overall innovation performance.
Krabi Initiative 2010 Defining direction of ASEAN’s STI up to and beyond 2015 Science Technology and Innovation (STI) for a Competitive, Sustainable and Inclusive ASEAN focusing on bottom-of-the-pyramid, youth, and green society Photo from Flickr.com All rights reserved by faha_ska
Krabi Initiative 2010:Science Technology and Innovation (STI) for a Competitive , Sustainable and Inclusive ASEAN ASEAN 2015 – Vision of ASEAN Leaders Rationale Roles of STI – A Balance between Competitiveness and Human Development (People-oriented STI) Reinventing ASEAN Scientific Community for a Meaningful Delivery of STI Agenda in ASEAN ASEAN Innovation for Global Market Green Technology Digital Economy, New Media & Social Network Food Security Thematic Tracks Science and Innovation for Life Biodiversity for Health & Wealth Water Management Energy Security Public-Private Partnership Platform STI for Green Society Bottom-of-the -Pyramid (BOP) Focus Youth-focused Innovation STI Enculturation Paradigm Shifts Organisational restructure for a meaningful delivery of STI agenda in ASEAN Develop mechanisms to pursue partnerships and cooperation with other stakeholders in STI Courses of Action Enhance ASEAN Plan of Action on S&T for 2012-2015 and leverage the recommendations of the Krabi Retreat for development of future APAST beyond 2015 Implement monitoring and evaluation mechanism for the implementation of STI thematic tracks Source: National Science Technology and Innovation Policy Office - Thailand, December 2010
APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org 24 การคาดการณ์อนาคตเทคโนโลยีtechnology foresight
APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org 25 patterns + signals new context
APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org 26 Scenario A Expected Today Possible and Plausible futures Preferred earlyweak signals of change Scenario B Time Source: Bezold and Hancock 1993, modified by APEC CTF
NISTEP, Science & Technology Foresight Rand Corporation, Global Technology Revolution 2020 Korea STEPI, Mega Trends Analysis UK Foresight Programme (Govt Office for Science) Battelle, R&D Forecast 2011 Center for Strategic Studies and Management Science, Technology and Innovation STI Office, APEC CTF Forfas Ireland 2025 ITRI, Taiwan 2015 Technology Foresight European Commission, Research & Innovation - SSH Singapore, Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning 27 APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org
APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org Climate change and its impact Migration, rural life, and natural resources Trade of goods and services Housing, construction, urban life, transportation Society and health 28
Coastal-to-inland migration sparks major conflicts over land and resources.
Emergence of computerized farming and other technological advances.
Carbon accounting becomes so dominant it replaces USD as the global currency.
Community networking is the key. Community-driven initiatives drive the changes the world requires in pursuit of the low-carbon development path.
APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org 29
30 stakeholder analysis D A E C B “fully involve and satisfy those Stakeholders with high levels of Interest andPower” High A1 B1 Manage Closely Keep informed Interest In this example, the project should focus upon managing D and E and in building relationship & interest levels with B A2 B2 Monitor(minimal effort) Keep satisfied Low Low High Power Source: Dr. RakVorrakitpokatorn (2010)