MPhil Thesis submitted to the University of Cambridge, March 2011. ABSTRACT Today’s global economy is a very complex and hard to read environment. Competition is fierce and being the first to ‘get it right’ when designing new products could be decisive. With so much at stake, many companies have turned to trends research as a way to differentiate their products. This work starts by looking into the current theoretical evidence that is available, aiming at making sense of how the issue has been portrayed in academic and commercial literature. The research itself was conducted in two steps: a quantitative study and a qualitative one. In the quantitative strand the aim was to understand how trend reports have been used in new product development and what opinion was had held about them by their users. The results indicate that trend reports were frequently being used but not thought of as an essential tool. In the qualitative step the aim was to drill down specifically on the opinions and expectations of product designers for trend research and reports. The results show that there was a discrepancy of expectations between designers and management about what trend reports are, how they should be used, and what they should be used for. And finally, five possible roles of trend reports for product designers were identified: source of discoveries, boundary objects, brand compasses, sparks and recipe books.

1.
The Role and Value of
Trend Reports for Product Designers
This
dissertation
is
submitted
to
the
University
of
Cambridge
for
the
Degree
of
Master
of
Philosophy
30th
March
2011
Nani Brunini
F it zw illia m Co lle ge
Supe rv iso r: J a me s Mo ult rie
U n iv e rsit y o f Ca mbrid ge
D e pa rt me n t o f En gin e e rin g
I n st it ut e fo r Ma n ufa c t urin g

2.
Abstract
Today’s
global
economy
is
a
very
complex
and
hard
to
read
environment.
Competition
is
fierce
and
being
the
first
to
‘get
it
right’
when
designing
new
products
could
be
decisive.
With
so
much
at
stake,
many
companies
have
turned
to
trends
research
as
a
way
to
differentiate
their
products.
This
work
starts
by
looking
into
the
current
theoretical
evidence
that
is
available,
aiming
at
making
sense
of
how
the
issue
has
been
portrayed
in
academic
and
commercial
literature.
The
research
itself
was
conducted
in
two
steps:
a
quantitative
study
and
a
qualitative
one.
In
the
quantitative
strand
the
aim
was
to
understand
how
trend
reports
have
been
used
in
new
product
development
and
what
opinion
was
had
held
about
them
by
their
users.
The
results
indicate
that
trend
reports
were
frequently
being
used
but
not
thought
of
as
an
essential
tool.
In
the
qualitative
step
the
aim
was
to
drill
down
specifically
on
the
opinions
and
expectations
of
product
designers
for
trend
research
and
reports.
The
results
show
that
there
was
a
discrepancy
of
expectations
between
designers
and
management
about
what
trend
reports
are,
how
they
should
be
used,
and
what
they
should
be
used
for.
And
finally,
five
possible
roles
of
trend
reports
for
product
designers
were
identified:
source
of
discoveries,
boundary
objects,
brand
compasses,
sparks
and
recipe
books.
5

3.
Index
Preface ..................................................................................................
01
Index ................................................................................................................................
02
Abstract ..................................................................................................................
05
Chapter 01 – Introduction
1.1
Background
..................................................................................................................
06
1.2
Research
objectives..................................................................................................................
07
1.3
Research
focus
..................................................................................................................
08
1.3.1
Product
designers
............................................................................................................
08
1.3.2
Trends
reports
................................................................................................................
09
1.4
Structure
of
this
thesis
..................................................................................................................
10
Chapter 02 – Literature review
2.1
Overview
..................................................................................................................
11
2.2
Available
literature
..................................................................................................................
12
2.2.1
Futures
studies
..................................................................................................................
12
2.2.2
Forecasting
and
trends
..................................................................................................................
12
2.2.3
Coolhunting
..................................................................................................................
13
2.2.4
Futures
and
trends
research
in
design
................................................................................................
14
2.3
Literature
gap
and
research
questions
...................................................................................................
17
Chapter 03 – Research design
3.1
(quant+)
QUAL
=
enhanced
experiment........................................................................................................
19
3.1.1
Embedded
design
..................................................................................................................
21
3.2
Benefits
from
each
methodology
.........................................................................................................
21
3.2.1
Why
we
needed
quantitative
data
.........................................................................................................
21
3.2.2
Why
we
needed
qualitative
data
........................................................................................................
22
2

4. Chapter 04 – Web survey
4.1
Survey
design
..................................................................................................................
23
4.1.1
Writing
the
questionnaire
..................................................................................................................
24
4.1.2
Selecting
and
recruiting
the
sample
............................................................................................................
28
4.1.3
Piloting
the
survey
..................................................................................................................
29
4.1.4
Finding
the
survey
engine
..................................................................................................................
29
4.2
Data
compilation
..................................................................................................................
30
4.2.1
Filter
from
378
to
200
responders
...............................................................................................................
30
4.2.2
Cross-­‐analysis
..................................................................................................................
31
4.3
Results
..................................................................................................................
32
4.3.1
Group
02
vs.
Groups
1
and
4:
how
the
use
of
trend
reports
can
be
affected
by
the
characteristics
of
person
and
company.
..................................................................................................................
32
4.3.2
Group
03
vs.
Groups
1
and
4:
how
the
opinion
on
trend
reports
can
be
affected
by
the
characteristics
of
person
and
company.
..................................................................................................................
33
4.3.3
Group
05
vs.
Groups
1
and
4:
how
the
investment
in
trend
reports
can
be
affected
by
the
characteristics
of
person
and
company.
..................................................................................................................
35
4.4
Discussion
..................................................................................................................
36
Chapter 05 – Qualitative interviews
5.1
Overview
......................................................................................................................................
38
5.2
Some
considerations
on
qualitative
interviews
............................................................................................
39
5.3
Designing
the
interview
..................................................................................................................
40
5.3.1
Sampling
..................................................................................................................
40
5.3.2
Visual
prop
and
exercises
..................................................................................................................
42
5.3.3
Interview
guide
..................................................................................................................
45
5.4
Data
compilation
and
analysis..................................................................................................................
46
5.4.1
Transcription
..................................................................................................................
46
5.4.2
Coding
..................................................................................................................
46
5.4.2
Analysis
of
exercises
..................................................................................................................
48
5.5
Interpretation
of
findings..................................................................................................................
50
5.5.1
Trend
reports
as
sources
of
discoveries
.....................................................................................
51
5.5.2
Trend
reports
as
boundary
objects
.......................................................................................................
53
5.5.3
Trend
reports
as
brand
compasses
................................................................................................
58
5.5.4
Trend
reports
as
sparks
.....................................................................................................
59
5.5.5
Trend
reports
as
recipe
books
.....................................................................................................
61
5.6
Summary..................................................................................................................
62
3

5. Chapter 06 – Synthesis
6.1
Back
to
the
main
question
..................................................................................................................
63
6.1.1
Divergent
expectations
..................................................................................................................
64
6.1.2
New
challenges
for
trend
reports
................................................................................................
65
Chapter 07 – Conclusion
7.1
Contributions
..................................................................................................................
66
7.1.1
Contributions
to
theory
..................................................................................................................
68
7.1.2
Contributions
to
practice
..................................................................................................................
67
7.2
Limitations
+
Future
research
..................................................................................................................
67
Bibliography ..................................................................................................................
68
Appendices
App.
01:
LinkedIn
groups
to
which
invitations
were
sent
...................................................................
73
App.
02:
Coroflot
groups
to
which
invitations
were
sent
................................................................
73
App.
03:
Final
demographic
of
web-­‐survey
...................................................................
74
App.
04:
Questions
from
survey
used
for
analysis
.........................................................................
75
App.
05:
Definitions
of
SME
(European
Commission,
2003)
......................................................................
76
4

6.
CHAPTER
01
Introduction
1.1 Background
Today’s
global
economy
is
a
very
complex
and
hard
to
read
environment.
Competition
is
fierce
and
especially
in
delicate
times
as
we
are
living
now,
being
the
first
to
‘get
it
right’
when
designing
new
products
could
be
decisive.
With
so
much
at
stake,
many
companies
have
turned
to
trends
research
as
a
way
to
differentiate
their
products.
Whole
departments
and
disciplines
have
been
created
to
help
companies
think
in
an
open-­‐minded
way
and
to
create
new
products
that
could
succeed
in
this
busy
marketplace.
1
Trend
reports
come
then
as
one
of
the
most
popular
vehicles
for
trend
research.
Top
management
are
usually
the
main
targets
of
these
expensive
strategic
documents,
which
commonly
provide
quantitative
data
and
rich
scenarios
of
how
the
future
might
look
like
in
a
determined
timeframe.
Most
literature
on
innovation
and
trends
research
is
also
written
from
a
management
point
of
view
(Raymond,
2010;
Courtney,
2001),
and
it
seems
that
economics,
marketing
and
advertising
are
the
most
common
audience
for
that
type
of
publications.
But
where
does
design
interact
with
trend
research?
Design
is
a
discipline
that
is
always
concerned
with
the
future
(Lawson,
2005;
Evans,
2010)
since
designers
are
constantly
being
asked
for
innovation
(Kelley
and
2
Littman,
2004).
Designers
are
noticeably
key
to
the
process
of
new
product
development
since
they
are
ultimately
the
ones
that
execute
the
ideas.
Thus
delivering
trend
reports
to
just
marketing
and
company
executives
without
the
buy-­‐in
of
the
design
team
can
be
potentially
a
huge
waste
of
effort
and
money.
Despite
that,
there
seems
there
to
be
a
lack
of
understanding
on
how
designers
take
that
sort
of
information.
1
“Trend
reports”
will
be
also
referred
here
by
its
acronym
“TR”.
2
“New
Product
Development”
will
be
also
referred
here
by
its
acronym
“NPD”.
6

7. Furthermore,
the
idea
of
following
trends
is
not
really
attractive
to
designers,
since
they
are
often
expected
to
create
the
future
themselves
(Lawson,
2005).
The
use
of
trends
research
by
designers
sounds
natural,
but
do
they
need
someone
else
to
look
at
the
future
for
them?
After
all,
designers
have
always
been
able
to
keep
up
to
date
by
researching
their
fields
and
being
connected
to
the
latest
developments.
Thinking
about
the
designers’
role
in
trends
research
has
not
been
much
of
an
issue
for
designers
so
far.
In
the
case
of
product
design,
which
is
the
focus
of
this
study,
futures
research
is
particularly
relevant
as
issues
with
product
longevity
and
production
costs
can
bring
some
interesting
challenges
to
product
designers
in
developing
products
that
cater
for
a
future
audience.
Investments
in
future
forecasting
and
trends
research
are
growing
very
rapidly
as
a
form
of
managing
risks
and
uncertainty
(Evans,
2010;
Scott,
2004;
Raymond,
2010;
Courtney,
2001;
Gloor,
P.
&
Cooper,
2007;
Gladwell,
2001),
but
the
“pink
elephant
in
the
room”
seems
to
be
that
designers
may
actually
not
be
using
the
content
of
those
reports,
since
they
could
potentially
not
be
relevant
to
them.
Despite
their
growing
prominence,
there
is
very
little
scientific
research
on
how
trend
reports
are
being
created
and
used
(Evans,
2010;
Scott,
2004).
Moreover,
no
publications
were
found
on
what
designers
think
about
those
types
of
reports.
It’s
due
to
these
reasons
that
this
research
aims
at
focusing
on
the
impact
of
trend
reports
in
the
work
of
designers.
Our
main
question
is:
What is the role and value of trend reports for product
designers?
We
intend
to
obtain
an
answer,
or
at
least
some
first
indications
to
an
answer,
mainly
from
designers
themselves.
1.2 Research objectives
This
study
is
not
intended
to
be
prescriptive.
Our
goal
is
not
to
give
a
detailed
description
of
‘what
to
do’
or
how
trend
reports
are
used
and
produced.
We
want
to
know
from
some
specific
users
of
trend
reports,
what
kind
of
relationship
do
they
see
between
product
design
and
trend
reports.
Thus
the
main
objectives
of
this
research
are
to:
• Look
into
the
current
theoretical
evidence
and
understand
how
the
issue
has
been
portrayed
in
academic
and
commercial
literature:
How
do
both
strands
differ
from
each
other?
How
is
design
and
futures
research
portrayed
in
each
domain?
• Explore
specific
issues
relating
to
product
design
and
trend
reports:
What
do
designers
think
about
trend
reports?
Do
they
think
they
need
them?
Can
they
be
useful
to
their
daily
practice?
In
what
7

8. ways?
What
are
their
expectations
towards
trend
reports?
What
have
been
their
experiences?
What
could
be
improved?
As
a
result
of
fulfilling
the
above
objectives,
this
paper
also
aims
to:
• Encourage
further
research
on
trend
analysis
in
the
design
field.
• Stimulate
conversations
within
design
practice
about
what
could
be
done
to
improve
forecasting
processes
for
product
design.
1.3 Research focus
Since
this
study
focuses
on
the
experiences
of
‘product
designers’
with
‘trend
reports’,
it
is
important
to
first
establish
how
those
terms
were
interpreted
throughout
this
research.
1.3.1 Product designers
This
research
focuses
on
the
opinion
of
product
designers
on
trend
reports
-­‐
an
area
positioned
by
Moggridge
(2007)
in
the
quadrant
of
Human
&
Subjective/Physical
design
(Figure
01).
Fig.
01:
Areas
of
design
and
the
focus
of
this
research
–
adapted
from
Moggridge’s
(2007)
axis
of
disciplines
in
product
development.
The
area
noted
here
as
“product
design”,
is
called
“industrial
design”
in
the
original
version.
8

9. The
area
of
Product
design
itself
is
vast
and
encompasses
a
whole
sub-­‐set
of
areas
–
such
as
lighting,
furniture,
digital
appliances,
electronic
devices,
apparel
and
fashion.
Thus
to
keep
our
scope
more
manageable,
this
study
approaches
the
term
‘product
design’
in
a
rather
broad
sense,
as
the
creation
of
tangible
objects
which
fulfil
particular
human
needs
and
desires
(Moggridge,
2007),
originated
from
a
design
process
-­‐
sketches,
prototypes
and
models
(Slack,
2006)
-­‐
and
created
through
industrial
processes
(Löbach,
2001).
It
is
also
important
to
mention,
that
although
we
refer
to
the
opinion
of
non-­‐designers
as
a
comparative
counter-­‐point
(see
Chapter
04),
the
idea
is
to
look
at
trend
reports
from
the
product
designers’
contexts
–
their
experiences
and
visualizations
of
an
ideal
document
for
them.
1.3.2 Trend reports
In
a
broader
sense,
a
report
is
an
official
document
that
summarises
the
assessment
and
analysis
of
a
certain
topic
(Bowden,
2011;
Lichtenberger
et
all,
2004).
Each
type
of
report
serves
a
very
specific
purpose
and
is
aimed
at
a
very
particular
audience.
Bowden
(2011)
and
Lichtenberger
(2004),
describe
some
of
the
main
purposes
of
reports
in
general:
describe
and
explain
a
certain
problem;
evaluate
products,
situations
and
practices;
inform
decision
making,
provide
recommendations
and
instruct
and
even
provoke
debate
and/or
persuade
someone
or
a
group
of
people.
In
design
practice,
that
list
could
also
go
on
and
on.
For
reasons
of
clarity,
this
study
revisits
the
way
some
distinguishing
authors
(O’Grady
&
O’Grady,
2009;
Laurel
&
Lunenfeld,
2003;
Tidwell,
2011)
describe
the
most
3
common
types
of
research
in
design
and
it
proposes
the
following
descriptions
as
a
first
attempt
to
distinguish
the
types
of
reports
in
design
practice:
TYPES
OF
REPORTS
FOCUS
COMMON
CONTENT
User
research
Human
behaviour
and
Heuristics,
ethnography,
ergonomics
and
usability
tests,
colour
reports
product
experiences.
and
typography
psychology,
patterns
of
(present)
behaviour.
Market
research
Consumption,
brands
and
Demographics,
ethnography,
segmentations,
customer
reports
market
dynamics.
satisfaction,
sales
and
pricing
data,
projections,
competitor
analyses,
brand
equity
and
strategy
analyses.
Trends
research
Behavioural
shifts
and
Timelines,
ethnography,
trends
analyses,
(indication
of
future)
reports
evolution
in
society
as
a
behaviour
patterns.
whole.
Table
01:
Differentiating
the
most
common
types
of
reports
in
design
practice
(suggested
by
the
author).
3
The
author
of
this
study
recognises
the
limitations
of
table
01
and
indeed
encourages
further
scientific
research
on
the
differences
and
commonalities
of
research
reports
in
design
practice.
9

10. These
three
types
of
reports
are
very
commonly
used
in
a
more
or
less
interchangeable
way.
As
a
way
to
explain
why
that
happens,
this
study
also
presents
the
following
matrix,
which
illustrates
how
closely
intertwined
the
three
reports
are:
Fig.
02:
Exploring
differences
and
similarities
between
user
research,
market
research
and
trends
research
reports
(suggested
by
the
author).
In
summary,
this
study
describes
trends
research
reports,
or
trend
reports,
as
“strategic
documents
that
track
down
the
behaviour
and
evolution
of
notable
shifts
in
society,
culture,
aesthetics,
technology,
environment,
consumers,
etc.
Contrary
to
user
research
or
competitive
analysis,
trend
reports
go
beyond
what
is
4
happening
now
and
always
present
patterns
suggesting
directions
to
future
projections” .
1.4 Structure of this thesis
This
work
is
organised
in
eight
chapters.
Chapter
02
(literature
review)
and
03
(methodology)
lay
the
groundwork
for
the
research,
while
Chapters
04
and
05
have
the
main
body
of
the
research
itself.
We
start
with
a
quantitative
approach
(Chapter
04)
to
help
inform
our
work
during
the
qualitative
stage
(Chapter
05).
Chapters
06
and
07
have
our
synthesis
of
the
results
and
our
conclusions
respectively,
while
Chapter
08
has
a
list
of
all
the
references
utilised.
4
Despite
being
proposed
by
the
author
of
this
research,
the
definition
of
trend
reports
is
presented
here
in
quotation
marks,
as
that
was
the
way
they
were
presented
to
responders
in
the
quantitative
web-­‐survey
(see
chapters
03
and
04).
10

11.
CHAPTER
02
Literature review
2.1 Overview
Exploring
current
literature
was
the
first
step
taken
to
collect
data
on
the
issues
we
wanted
to
investigate.
As
the
exact
research
questions
were
not
clearly
established
at
first,
the
review
of
the
literature
went
through
a
1
rather
broad
spectrum
of
issues .
The
objective
was
not
only
to
get
better
acquainted
with
the
subject,
but
also
to
also
find
possible
avenues
to
focus
on
that
could
be
aligned
with
personal
interests.
The
starting
point
was
to
look
at
what
had
already
been
published
in
the
academic
world
about
trends
research
and
design.
Among
these
were:
various
journals
on
design,
product
development
and
futures
studies
that
were
accessed
via
academic
databases
such
as
Science
Direct,
Google
Scholar
and
CUED
from
Cambridge.
Some
of
that
material
was
also
obtained
via
personal
requests
for
copies
to
academics
when
the
literature
was
not
readily
available.
In
order
to
achieve
more
breadth
there
was
also
an
attempt
to
search
for
this
topic
in
other
languages.
However,
putting
potential
language
barriers
aside,
very
little
was
found
about
the
penetration
of
trends
research
in
the
design
world.
In
the
academic
field,
it
seems
there
is
a
recently
growing
interest
in
trends
research
and
design.
Interestingly
they
all
came
from
the
United
Kingdom
–
an
MPhil
dissertation
(Scott,
2004)
and
a
doctoral
thesis
(Muir
Wood,
2010)
from
the
University
of
Cambridge
and
a
PhD
thesis
from
Lancaster
University
(Evans,
2010).
Unfortunately,
besides
a
few
sporadic
papers,
little
other
scientific
effort
was
found.
In
the
commercial
world
however,
publications
on
trends
research
and
design
related
issues
are
getting
more
and
more
popular.
The
corporate
world
is
used
to
following
trends,
mostly
through
business
figures
and
market
research,
but
it
seems
there
is
also
a
growing
interest
in
the
very
alluring
world
of
“coolhunting”
and
in
the
possibilities
of
becoming
“cool”
and
“trendy”.
1
In
order
to
allow
for
a
greater
focus
on
the
results
of
the
study,
whilst
maintaining
scientific
robustness,
the
researcher
made
the
deliberate
decision
of
presenting
only
some
key
authors
and
topics
in
the
literature
review.
This
was
decision
was
a
compromise,
taken
in
consideration
the
word
count
allowed
for
MPhil
theses.
11

12. This
section
presents
how
some
of
the
most
relevant
issues
to
this
study
are
portrayed
in
current
available
literature.
It
starts
with
giving
an
overview
of
literature
on
‘forecasting’,
inside
and
out
of
the
design
field.
Then
it
narrows
to
summarise
what
experts
say
about
‘trends’,
which
is
seen
both
from
a
perspective
of
a
phenomenon
and
as
business
opportunities.
The
chapter
is
then
finalised
with
how
the
construction
of
this
study’s
research
questions
as
an
attempt
to
fill
up
a
gap
in
current
literature.
2.2 Available literature
2.2.1 Futures studies
Futures
Studies
as
a
formal
discipline
is
now
well
over
50
years
old
(Sardar,
2009).
In
fact,
some
scholars
trace
it
back
much
further
as
trying
to
guess
what
the
future
holds
is
quite
a
fundamental
part
of
being
human.
According
to
Wendell
Bell,
professor
emeritus
of
sociology
at
Yale
University,
currently
a
“consultant
futurist”,
futures
studies’
main
purposes
are
"to
discover
or
invent,
examine
and
evaluate,
and
propose
possible,
probable,
and
preferable
futures”
(Bell,
1997).
Godet
and
Roubelat
(1996)
suggest
that
the
role
of
futures
studies
has
to
be
rethought,
as
in
the
1980s
and
1990s
a
number
of
errors
in
forecasting
were
made
based
upon
two
mistakes:
“overestimation
of
the
pace
of
change
(of
technologies)”
and
the
“underestimation
of
inertial
factors
(structures,
behaviours)”
(Godet
&
Roubelat,
1996).
In
a
similar
vein,
Sardar
(2009)
makes
the
point
that
future
studies
should
not
to
be
about
getting
it
right
since
this
is
not
possible;
instead
it
should
be
about
“exploring
and
developing
creative,
novel
and
inclusive
solutions”
(Sardar,
2009).
2.2.2 Forecasting and trends
The
great
majority
of
texts
on
forecasting
and
trends
come
from
fashion
and
economics
(Muir
Wood,
2010)
–
two
worlds
at
first
seen
as
completely
different
from
each
other.
With
regards
to
how
they
apply
forecasting
and
the
finding
of
patterns,
usually
they
also
behave
very
differently:
the
first
relying
more
on
instinct
and
visual
observations,
such
as
the
change
of
preferences
in
colours
and
materials
(Kim
et
al,
2011;
Diane
&
Cassidy,
2005),
whilst
the
other
searches
for
certainty
in
numerical
projections
in
different
demographics
and
sales
figures
(Friedman,
2010;
Gordon,
2008;
Watson,
2009).
Some
authors
even
try
to
combine
both
worlds.
Chan,
C,
for
example
tries
to
measure
style
by
creating
complex
mathematical
formulae
(Chan
2000).
12

13. In
the
business
sector,
there
is
a
huge
volume
of
books
on
forecasting.
From
‘how
to
do
it’
(Raymond,
2004
and
2010;
Highman,
2009;
Brannon,
2005;
Kim,
Fiore
&
Kim,
2011;
Taleb,
2008;
Gordon,
2008)
to
‘what
trends
are
relevant
for
a
certain
year’
(Friedman,
2011;
Dixon,
2007;
Watson,
2009).
Although
authors
are
very
careful
in
saying
you
cannot
really
predict
the
future,
the
atmosphere
is
more
about
‘getting
it
right’
(Raymond,
2010)
and
having
“decision
making
power”(Lindgren
and
Bandhold,
2003).
Martin
Raymond,
co-­‐founder
of
one
of
the
most
influential
trends
agencies
in
the
design
world,
The
Future
2
Laboratory ,
says
in
his
latest
book
for
example:
“Yes
accurate!
If
a
company
hires
you,
invests
in
you
and
asks
you
to
identify
the
next
social,
cultural,
ethical
or
environmental
trend
that
is
set
to
impact
on
consumer
behaviour,
they’ll
expect
you
to
get
it
right.”
(Raymond,
2010)
A
quick
look
to
Amazon.com,
the
largest
online
book
retailer
to
date,
can
illustrate
how
commonplace
the
words
‘forecasting’,
‘prediction’
and
‘certainty’
have
become
in
titles
of
economics,
business
strategy
or
even
fashion
books.
According
to
Sardar
(2009),
‘forecasting’
is
a
term
that
should
be
carefully
used,
as
they
‘seduce’
readers
with
the
illusory
idea
of
being
able
to
see
what
is
coming
next
and
control
the
future
(Sardar,
2009).
2.2.3 Coolhunting
Coolhunting
is
a
recent
popular
term
for
identifying
trends
and
is
related
to
spotting
new
and
unusual
‘triggers’
in
society
–
from
products
to
behaviours.
Being
“cool”
is
generally
understood
as
being
different
and
unique
and
companies
are
very
interested
because
this
is
something
they
can
capitalise
on.
“Cool”
is
the
ultimate
point
of
difference
and
appeals
to
very
broad
audiences
–
“young
people
gravitate
towards
it
and
older
people
covet
it
because
it
makes
them
feel
younger”
(Kerner
&
Pressman,
2007).
The
term
‘coolhunting’
was
coined
by
the
noted
writer
Malcom
Gladwell,
who
in
1997
wrote
an
article
in
The
New
Yorker
(Gladwell,
1997)
about
Deedee
Gordon,
an
American
coolhunter
with
an
impressive
list
of
clients
-­‐
from
manufacturers
of
apparel,
footwear,
health
and
beauty,
cosmetics
and
fragrances;
movie
studios;
sports
associations;
electronics
companies
and
advertising
agencies
(Gordon,
2001).
Some
suggest
that
the
rise
of
coolhunting
was
heavily
influenced
by
the
record
amounts
of
disposable
income
in
the
past
10
or
so
years
(Kerner
&
Pressman,
2007).
Combine
that
with
a
growing
commoditisation,
fear
of
competition
and
an
increasing
difficulty
to
differentiate
products,
and
suddenly
the
hunt
for
the
next
trendy
thing
can
raise
immense
interest.
2
www.thefuturelaboratory.com
13

14. Nowadays
coolhunting
is
such
a
‘hot
topic’
that
there
is
not
only
a
growing
number
in
print
publications
on
the
subject,
but
also
a
huge
selection
of
influential
blogs
and
websites
from
experts
and
amateurs
alike.
In
Italy,
for
example,
there
is
even
a
“school”
dedicated
to
coolhunting,
preparing
professionals
from
all
over
the
world
3
with
theories
and
techniques .
On
the
other
hand,
even
though
it’s
such
a
young
topic,
there
are
already
some
critics
on
the
subject.
Kerner
&
Pressman
for
example
are
really
emphatic
on
their
opinions;
they
describe
the
outcomes
of
focus
groups
and
trend
reports
as
“short
sighted,
artificial
and
gimmicky”.
They
strongly
believe
that
companies
shouldn’t
be
chasing
cool,
but
rather
be
inspired
by
it.
“Do
your
research
but
spit
it
out
in
your
own
way”,
they
argue
(Kerner
&
Pressman,
2007).
Tom
Ford,
a
celebrated
fashion
designer,
goes
as
far
as
to
say
“if
you
have
to
pay
someone
to
tell
you
what
the
next
trend
is,
then
you
are
in
the
wrong
business”
(Kerner
&
Pressman,
2007).
2.2.4 Futures and trends research in design
Futures
research
is
a
very
mature
discipline
and
one
can
find
a
vast
array
of
material
on
philosophical
considerations
on
the
importance
and
consequences
of
future
studies
to
society
as
well
as
to
corporate
environments
and
product
development.
Conversely,
only
very
few
of
these
consider
the
influence
of
forecasting
in
design
practice
(Evans,
2010;
Muir
Wood,
2010;
Scott,
2005).
The
design
industry,
despite
recognizing
trends
research
as
an
important
topic,
has
largely
failed
to
formally
adopt
it
as
part
of
their
processes
(Scott
2005).
Also
there
seems
to
be
a
fair
amount
of
confusion
around
the
nomenclature,
as
it
often
uses
the
term
“trends
research”
as
an
umbrella
term
for
many
types
of
research
(Muir
Wood
2010).
As
noted
earlier,
that
gap
seems
to
be
filled
from
the
academic
side.
The
first
material
encountered
on
the
subject
was
an
MPhil
thesis
from
the
University
of
Cambridge,
which
investigated
the
possibility
of
product
trends
being
predicted
and
how
the
trends
research
process
was
being
applied
in
design
companies
in
the
UK
(Scott,
2005).
The
author,
Natalie
Scott,
uses
practical
and
real
life
examples
by
conducting
eighteen
“highly-­‐
structured”
interviews
with
manufacturers
and
design
agencies
in
the
UK.
She
concludes
the
study
with
a
very
interesting
tool
designed
by
the
author
(Fig.
03),
which
“combines
all
the
proposed
models
used
to
represent
the
patterns
identified
from
the
interviews”.
3
From
their
website:
“TrendsGymnasium
is
an
online
Coolhunting
training
course
designed
to
help
people
effectively
learn
how
to
spot
and
analyze
short,
medium
and
long
term
trends,
by
interpreting
their
impact
on
society
using
the
technique
of
coolhunting
to
originate
fresh
ideas”.
http://www.trendsgymnasium.com/
14

15. Fig.
03:
“Design
map
for
capturing
trends”
designed
by
Natalie
Scott
(2005).
Martyn
Evans,
a
senior
lecturer
from
the
University
of
Lancaster,
also
presents
the
issue
from
a
practical
perspective,
considering
the
role
of
futures
thinking
in
design
(Evans,
2010).
He
refers
to
the
long
established
field
of
future
studies
to
serve
as
theoretical
base
for
his
investigation.
One
of
the
major
outcomes
of
the
research
is
the
construction
of
a
theoretical
framework
drawn
upon
the
results
of
a
series
of
qualitative
interviews
with
top
management,
designers
and
researchers,
mostly
from
coming
from
design
agencies.
Evans’
study
concludes
on
a
note
of
the
“growing
need
for
organisations
to
engage
designers
to
consider
the
future
in
the
design
process”
since
that
is
a
requirement
that
is
becoming
more
and
more
frequent
in
a
very
uncertain
world
(Evans,
2010).
He
also
finds
out
from
the
literature
and
the
interviews
with
design
practitioners
that
4
although
futures
thinking
techniques
are
increasingly
being
employed
in
design
practice,
this
is
not
a
field
designers
are
very
knowledgeable
about
(Evans,
2010).
4
Common
techniques
in
design
practice
include
trend
monitoring,
Delphi
methods,
scenarios
building,
etc.
15

16.
Fig.
04:
“Design
Futures”
framework
designed
by
Martyn
Evans
(2010).
Picture
merely
illustrative.
Please
refer
to
original
work
for
more
details.
A
month
after
Evan’s
publication,
a
further
important
thesis
is
submitted
by
Andrew
Muir
Wood
(2010),
this
time
from
the
University
of
Cambridge.
To
a
certain
extent,
Muir
Wood
also
considers
the
influence
of
futures
thinking
in
the
design
environment,
except
he
approaches
the
topic
from
the
perspective
of
the
product,
rather
than
that
of
the
designer,
consumer
or
firm.
His
focus
is
on
understanding
and
explaining
the
phenomenon
of
“change”
in
the
design
of
consumer
products
(Muir
Wood,
2010)
and
he
does
that
by
analysing
the
relationships
between
the
aesthetic
and
technical
qualities
of
products.
Andrew
applies
a
series
of
qualitative
interviews
with
design
experts
and
conducts
a
case
study
on
the
evolution
of
mobile
phones,
providing
some
novel
approaches
and
a
very
visual,
thus
also
very
“designerly”,
way
of
depicting
the
evolution
of
a
trend.
Similarly
to
Evans
and
Scott,
Muir
Wood
summarises
his
investigation
in
a
theoretical
framework,
which
depicts
how
form
is
developed
in
the
context
of
design
(Fig.
05).
16

17.
Fig.
05:
“Theoretical
framework
of
change
in
the
design
of
products”,
designed
by
Andrew
Muir
Wood
(2010).
Picture
merely
illustrative.
Please
refer
to
original
work
for
more
details.
2.3 Literature gap and research questions
Going
through
the
available
literature
has
shown
there
is
already
a
reasonable
amount
of
material
(mostly
from
commercial
literature)
on
the
creation
and
use
of
trends
research
in
non-­‐design
environments.
Some
literature
on
how
trends
have
been
introduced
in
the
design
process
was
also
found
(mostly
from
academic
literature).
This
study
did
not
attempt
to
be
prescriptive
or
to
go
too
deep
into
the
making
of
reports.
It
should
be
noted,
however
that
this
is
also
an
area
that
deserves
more
attention.
The
only
reference
that
was
found
that
talks
directly
about
the
making
of
trend
reports,
Martin
Raymond’s
book
“The
Trend
Forecaster’s
Handbook”
(Raymond,
2010),
mainly
acts
a
‘how-­‐to
guide’
and
only
leaves
three
pages
(out
of
216)
to
the
subject.
As
seen
in
chapter
2,
though
not
exhaustive,
there
is
already
some
evidence
on
how
design
practitioners
set
about
creating
and
using
trends
reports.
However
little
attention
has
been
put
onto
the
actual
value
of
trends
research.
Thus,
the
primary
research
question
that
this
study
seeks
to
address
is:
What is the role and value
of trend reports to product designers?
17

18. As
that
seemed
a
rather
large
question
to
answer,
we
have
decided
to
break
that
question
into
two
semi-­‐
independent
subsets
with
two
research
questions
each:
Fig.
06:
The
two
sub-­‐sets
of
research
questions.
As
figure
06
illustrates,
these
two
sets
were
approached
by
two
different
methodologies.
The
reasons
why
we
have
taken
a
multi-­‐method
approach
is
going
to
be
explained
in
detail
in
the
methodology
section
(chapter
03),
but
the
abovementioned
figure
can
give
a
brief
overview
on
how
the
investigation
of
our
primary
research
question
was
tackled:
a
quantitative
path
for
the
first
one
and
a
qualitative
for
the
second.
These
came
sequentially
and
the
qualitative
phase
had
more
weight
in
the
data
analysis.
The
next
chapter
will
open
up
the
discussion
about
how
that
mixed-­‐methodology
was
approached.
18

19.
CHAPTER
03
Research design
Having
established
the
research
questions
in
the
previous
chapter,
we
will
now
introduce
our
process
in
selecting
the
most
appropriate
methodologies
to
guide
our
investigation.
This
chapter
contains
an
introductory
discussion
on
what
methodologies
have
been
used;
first
it
describes
the
multi-­‐method
approach
that
was
taken
and
then
it
goes
over
the
rationale
behind
those
choices.
For
clarity
reasons,
a
more
detailed
description
of
how
those
methodologies
have
been
assessed
will
only
be
provided
in
the
upcoming
chapters
4
and
5
within
the
context
of
their
use.
3.1 (quant+) QUAL = enhanced experiment1
As
we
have
seen
in
the
previous
chapter,
this
research
poses
two
independent
sub-­‐sets
of
research
questions.
The
figure
below
illustrates
how
the
design
of
this
research
builds
up
from
the
results
of
the
literature
review
and
starts
with
the
collection
and
analysis
of
quantitative
data.
The
first
set
of
research
questions
(RQ01
and
RQ02)
is
assessed
via
a
web-­‐survey
and
followed
by
a
subsequent
collection
and
analysis
of
qualitative
data
through
interviews,
which
then
refer
to
the
second
sub-­‐set
of
research
questions
(RQ03
and
RQ04).
Fig.
07:
Research
stages.
1
Notation
based
on
the
system
suggested
by
Creswell
&
Plano
Clark
(2001).
19

20. As
it
will
be
explained
in
section
3.2,
the
results
from
the
quantitative
phase
were
mainly
used
in
this
study
as
a
way
to
better
inform
the
design
of
the
next
qualitative
phase.
They
were
analysed
both
as
a
“recheck”
(not
as
statistical
validation)
of
the
researcher’s
previous
assumptions
and
as
indicators
for
further
inquiries.
During
the
final
analysis
a
higher
priority
was
given
to
the
results
of
the
qualitative
interviews.
Some
of
the
findings
from
the
quantitative
phase
were
indeed
further
investigated
in
the
interviews,
but
the
rationale
for
this
approach
was
that
both
strands
of
methodology
would
remain
independent.
The
results
from
the
first
phase
provided
a
more
general
understanding
of
the
research
problem,
whilst
the
second
phase
explored
more
focused,
less
generic
problems.
The
outcomes
of
both
strands
were
then
collated
once
the
qualitative
analysis
was
done.
The
following
table
presents
a
detailed
comparison
between
both
lines
of
study:
QUANTITATIVE
QUALITATIVE
RESEARCH
QUESTIONS
RQ01:
How
have
trend
reports
been
used
in
RQ03:
What
do
people
who
work
with
NPD?
product
design
think
about
trends
research
and
trend
reports?
RQ02:
What
do
users
of
trend
reports
think
about
trend
reports?
RQ04:
How
do
people
who
work
with
product
design
see
the
role
of
trends
research
and
trend
reports
in
their
field?
LEVEL
OF
EXPLORATION
Shallow,
illustrative.
Deep,
exploratory.
TYPES
OF
QUESTIONS
Simple,
closed.
Complex,
open.
Who,
what,
when,
how
much
Why,
what,
how
come.
REASONING,
OBJECTIVES
Indication,
insights
and
observations.
In-­‐depth
investigation,
insights
and
observations.
Recheck
on
assumptions
based
on
the
literature
reviewed
and
on
the
researcher’s
previous
professional
experience.
ONTOLOGIES
Real
experiences.
Real
experiences
and
ideal
conceptions.
Use
and
opinion
from
professionals.
Use
and
opinion
from
professionals
working
with
product
design.
UNITS
OF
ANALYSIS
Personal/individual
+
company
Personal/individual
+
company
Trend
reports
(concrete)
Trend
research
(abstract)
+
trend
reports
(concrete)
SAMPLE
Breadth
(200
participants).
Depth
(11
participants).
Different
types
of
professionals.
Designers
working
with
product
design.
Users
or
user/creators
of
trend
reports.
Users
or
user/creators
of
trend
reports.
All
levels
of
seniority.
Mid-­‐weight,
senior,
managers
and
head-­‐of-­‐
department.
B2C
products,
durables
and
non-­‐durables.
B2C
products,
durables.
All
countries.
London
(UK)
and
São
Paulo
(Brazil).
Table
02:
Comparison
between
used
research
methodologies.
20

21. 3.1.1 Embedded design
The
mixed
method
approach
we
have
used
for
this
study
was
what
Creswell
&
Plan
Clark
(2011)
would
call
as
“embedded
designs”.
According
to
the
authors,
these
types
of
methodologies
occur
when
“the
researcher
combines
the
collection
and
analysis
of
both
quantitative
and
qualitative
data
within
a
traditional
quantitative
research
design
or
qualitative
research
design”
(Creswell
&
Plan
Clark,
2011).
They
are
mostly
suitable
for
cases
when
the
researcher
has
questions
that
require
different
types
of
data.
In
our
case,
we
needed
a
more
generic
strand
in
order
to
contemplate
the
big
picture
as
well
as
more
specific
view
of
the
use
of
trend
reports.
The
authors
also
point
out
that
in
some
embedded
designs,
one
data
set
could
provide
a
supportive
or
secondary
role
in
the
study,
which
was
indeed
the
case
with
this
research.
They
also
explain
that
this
type
of
design
is
appropriate
when
“the
researcher
has
little
prior
experience
with
the
supplemental
method”
and
when
“the
researcher
does
not
have
adequate
resources
to
place
equal
priority
on
both
types
of
data”
(Creswell
&
Plan
Clark,
2011).
A
particular
aspect
to
embedded
designs
is
that,
because
the
two
methods
are
used
to
answer
different
research
questions,
integrating
the
results
later
can
be
very
challenging.
Conversely,
an
advantage
to
the
design
is
that
the
two
sets
of
results
can
be
kept
separate,
so
the
“pressure”
of
converging
their
results
is
very
low
(Bryman,
2004).
3.2 Benefits from each methodology
There
are
several
reasons
why
is
good
to
choose
quantitative
and
qualitative
approaches.
Below
we
list
the
ones
that
were
most
relevant
to
our
selection.
3.2.1 Why we needed quantitative data
Unbiased information
'How
much'
and
'what'
questions
are
more
easily
identified
by
fixed
or
quantitative
approaches
(Robson,
2003).
However
the
decision
to
include
a
quantitative
method
to
this
thesis
actually
came
only
a
bit
later
in
the
process.
Our
initial
planning
was
to
answer
the
research
questions
only
through
qualitative
interviews,
but
in
the
first
attempt
at
writing
the
qualitative
questionnaire
there
was
some
concern
around
the
possibility
of
a
biased
approach
due
to
the
researcher’s
previous
professional
experience.
This
fact
was
very
critical
since
the
sampling
for
the
qualitative
phase
would
be
done
via
the
researcher’s
personal
network.
21

22. Thus
in
order
to
decrease
that
risk
of
partiality,
a
quantitative
web-­‐survey
was
conducted.
The
idea
is
that
by
giving
more
breadth
to
the
research
and
reassessing
our
preconceptions,
we
could
potentially
prevent
the
following
of
unfruitful
leads.
Far-reaching and cost-effective
An
online
survey
is
a
cost-­‐effective
way
to
include
participants
from
all
over
the
world.
That
could
potentially
grant
us
insights
to
major
influential
factors
such
as
cultural
and
economical
instances.
Moreover,
it
makes
it
easier
to
add
non-­‐designers
in
the
analysis,
which
could
give
some
indication
on
how
much
the
problems
reported
in
the
reviewed
literature
relate
exclusively
to
the
design
field.
3.2.2 Why we needed qualitative data
In-depth knowledge
'How'
and
'Why'
questions
are
more
difficult
to
pin
down
and
often
indicate
the
need
for
a
qualitative
approach
(Robson,
2003).
We
were
also
looking
for
more
personal
statements,
going
beyond
the
participants’
real
experiences.
Real,
spontaneous
and
almost
unconscious
commentary
was
expected
to
help
paint
a
richer
idea
of
who
has
been
using
trend
reports
specifically
in
design
environments.
The real deal
The
great
majority
of
trend
reports
contain
confidential
information.
The
way
we
would
be
most
likely
able
to
refer
to
that
sensitive
material
would
be
via
personal
contact,
thus
making
a
qualitative
method
necessary.
By
referring
to
real
examples
of
trend
reports
we
would
have
a
better
idea
of
what
kind
of
trends
reports
and
what
kind
of
trends
information
product
designers
are
utilising.
Furthermore,
that
documentary
analysis
could
also
give
us
stronger
hints
on
what
product
designers
actually
understand
by
the
term
“trend
reports”.
Previous expertise
The
researcher
has
been
conducting
qualitative
research
as
well
as
qualitative
interviews
in
design
environments
for
over
7
years.
Although
there
was
a
substantial
research
on
the
scientific
approach
to
qualitative
interviews
(Creswell
&
Plan
Clark,
2011;
Robson,
2003;
Mason,
2002;
Bell,
2005;
Gill
&
Johnson,
2010;
Collins,
2010),
the
previous
experience
of
the
researcher
and
thus
her
familiarity
with
the
tools
was
also
an
important
decision
factor
in
the
choice
for
this
methodology.
22

23.
CHAPTER
04
Web survey
In
the
previous
chapter
we
have
seen
the
rationale
behind
the
overall
design
of
this
study.
This
chapter
and
the
following
will
now
provide
a
more
detailed
discussion
on
both
methodologies
that
were
used
–
quantitative
and
qualitative.
We
now
focus
on
the
creation
and
development
of
the
quantitative
phase
of
this
research.
First
some
considerations
will
be
made
with
regards
to
using
that
kind
of
methodology.
We
will
discuss
the
key
strategies
employed
to
overcome
the
usual
challenges
of
an
online
quantitative
survey.
We
then
consider
the
survey
design
–
how
the
questionnaire
was
made,
how
it
relates
to
the
research
questions
and
what
type
of
sampling
strategy
was
selected
to
achieve
our
goal.
Once
that
is
established,
we
demonstrate
our
process
of
data
analysis
by
showing
how
the
results
from
the
survey
matched
our
previous
hypotheses.
The
chapter
concludes
by
discussing
the
results
and
their
relation
to
the
research
questions
as
well
as
by
making
some
observations
on
the
limitations
and
caveats
of
this
quantitative
phase.
4.1 Survey design
Putting
the
survey
together
was
a
rather
complex
undertaking.
Four
main
tasks
had
to
be
managed
in
a
more
or
less
simultaneous
manner:
1. Writing
the
questionnaire
and
ensuring
that
the
captured
data
was
as
reliable
as
possible.
2. Choosing
and
recruiting
a
relevant
sample.
3. Piloting
the
survey.
4. Choosing
a
survey
engine
and
making
sure
technicalities
were
not
in
the
way
of
survey
completion.
We
now
look
at
those
tasks
with
some
more
detail.
23

24. 4.1.1 Writing the questionnaire
Quantitative
questionnaires
traditionally
require
a
strong
pre-­‐specification
as
well
as
a
substantial
amount
of
conceptual
understanding
about
a
phenomenon
before
starting
the
actual
data
collection
(Robson,
2003;
Gill
&
Johnson,
1991;
Collins,
2010;
Bell,
2005).
For
this
thesis,
some
elements
were
crucial
in
selecting
which
1
variables
could
lead
to
fruitful
results:
the
researcher’s
professional
experience ,
the
reviewed
literature
and
the
feedback
from
pilot
phase.
From hypotheses to questions
As
Robson
states,
“the
researcher’s
central
task
is
to
link
research
questions
and
survey
questions”
(Robson,
2003).
So
a
lot
of
effort
was
put
to
find
the
most
relevant
variables
to
answer
research
questions
01
and
02:
RQ01: How have trend reports been used in NPD?
RQ02: What do users of trend reports think about trend reports?
Robson
suggests
the
use
of
frameworks
to
providing
descriptions
to
explanations,
but
also
to
prevent
survey
questionnaires
to
be
reduced
to
“a
fishing
trip
where
questions
are
added
simply
because
'it
seemed
a
good
idea
at
the
idea'”
(Robson,
2003).
Taking
this
advice
into
account
the
following
structure
was
created,
which
would
support
data
collection
and
analyses
throughout
the
whole
research:
Questions
from
the
groups
in
the
upper
row
would
refer
to
instances
from
individuals:
their
personal
characteristics
(group
01),
use
of
trend
reports
(group
02)
and
opinion
on
trend
reports
(group
03).
Questions
from
the
groups
in
the
lower
row
would
refer
to
what
individuals
report
about
the
companies
they
currently
work
for:
their
companies’
characteristics
(group
04)
and
how
much
they
invest
in
trend
reports
(group
05).
All
groups
would
later
be
correlated
in
a
series
of
cross-­‐analyses
between
selected
variables
in
order
to
find
interesting
relationships
between
variables.
Fig.
08:
Relevant
questions
from
survey.
1
The
researcher
has
been
working
for
over
seven
years
with
design
and
trends
research
at
market
leader
companies
in-­‐house
and
design
consultancies.
24