Telecoms 2.0: Understanding the Impact of Open Mobile

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Mobile Monday Norway
Jan 2010
Ajit Jaokar
Telecoms 2.0: Understanding the Impact of Open Mobile

Ajit Jaokar
Ajit Jaokar
UK based - Hands on Publisher (futuretext) - Author (Mobile Web 2.0, Social Media Marketing, Open Mobile) - Chair: Oxford University's Next Gen Mobile Applications panel - PhD student UCL/UK - Consulting – Operators, Governments/EU, Startups – World Economic Forum - future of the Internet
Recent and forthcoming talks include
Mobile world congress(2007,2008,2009), CEBIT, Stanford University - MIT Sloan -Web 2.0 expo - Ajaxworld
Supernova - CNN money - BBC - Oxford University
European parliament
Global top 20 wireless blogger
According to fierce wireless
www.opengardensblog.futuretext.com
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Open Mobile - Outline ..
What you will learn:
A holistic view - Web. Mobile. Appstores. Open
How the value chain is changing
Where it is going to (which appstore will 'win')
Web v.s Apps?
How to get the soft copy of my latest book for free ..

On the internet - no one knows ..

Open Mobile
Open Mobile - is even your dog can log on to any mobile :) - like the PC

Open Mobile = your dog can log
Cringeworthy as it may sound! - On a more serious note it implies UNLEASHING(UNLOCKING) THE DEVICE
i.e. complete separation of access from service! - device is not tied to the network (like a PC)

Open mobile - Net neutrality
Open Mobile - Net neutrality argument and decoupling the network from the service.
Think of multiplayer chess over the network:
There are two possibilities -
A) If the network is agnostic (i.e. no intelligence is built into the network) - then the chess player can concentrate on creating the chess application.
B) If the network is 'intelligent' - then you need a 'network expert' to create a chess application.
(a)is an example of intelligence shifting to the edge of the network
www.maniacworld.com
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Building a cage?
http://www.museumfurniture.com/curiosities/8birdcage1.jpg

Or building a play frame?
Building a Cage or Building a play frame? Both have a structure. One restricts you - the other allows you to explore. The choice is ours .. And the choice has commercial benefits ..
http://www.the1foru.co.uk/ekmps/shops/the1foru/images/action_tramps_2005_271%5Bekm%5D465x300%5Bekm%5D.jpg
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The inevitable forces driving Open Mobile
Why OpenMobile is inevitable: Like a freight train .. You cannot stop it ..
http://www.edrants.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/rr1.jpg
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The inevitable forces driving Open Mobile
The three riders of Open Mobile:
The Internet
Creation of content (vs.. consumption)
Social networking
http://www.usfca.edu/pj/images/4-3horse.jpg
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The Internet ..
The Internet:
All packets are created equal
Dumb pipes – smart notes
No differential charging for IP traffic
'Communication based' not driven by media players (which seeks to make us passive consumers)
Connected by IP and http protocols
Creation and not consumption
http://static.howstuffworks.com/gif/webserver-backbone-sm.gif
http://www.technologyreview.com/Infotech/18944/?a=f
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The Internet drives Open
The Internet drives 'Open' but Open means many things to many people …
Open source - and especially it's impact on devices - Android
• Open standards - W3C standards
• Open APIs i.e. Application Programming Interfaces - for instance access to Location APIs
• Open access (freedom to contact anyone on the network),
• Open choice of enablers (for example - the ability to choose your billing system),

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The Internet drives Open
• Data portability (ownership of your data)
• The ability to access any application (i.e. not just the provider's application) a.k.a the classic 'Walled Garden' debate - On deck/ Off deck
• 'Open' in relationship to the Cloud
• Impact on developers and a shift in value to the edge of the network
Low barriers of entry for third party developers
From a mobile perspective, 'Open' in the purest sense means to be like the PC - i.e. individuals are not tied to a network or to a device. Anyone can simply 'log on' to the network or device using their credentials anywhere

Open - from a customer perspective ..
Open’ means the ability to access a resource or to communicate with people within reasonable commercial and technological barriers. Not free.
Open - makes a lot more sense from a customer perspective
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Forces at work ..
Telecoms Stack
We are seeing two forces at work: Value is being abstracted to higher levels of the stack / edge of the network (ex appstores, Google Latitude) - for Long tail applications and at the same time, the networks will find profitable niches in areas which they can uniquely do - ex via LTE
http://www.explore-highland-perthshire.com/images/highland_games/pitlochry/tug_of_war.jpg
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Social networks
Converged address book, Social networks integrated into devices, Twitter
Cloud
Azure; Verizon, Chrome cloud synchronization, bookmark sync
Content
Paid/Free, Hulu, YouTube, spotify, 3D, HD
Ecosystems
LG, Nokia Ovi, Samsung, VCAST, Appstores vs Mobile Web, BREW apps, China Mobile, iPhone, JIL, getjar, BONDI-W3C
Device
Feature vs. Smart-phone, Nokia, LG, Samsung, HTC, Motorola, SE, RIM, netbooks, open source on devices, sensors, mobile web, emerging markets
Mobile Web
HTML5, Chrome, WebOS, Real time web, Browser extensions
LTE
femtocells, HSDPA+, bearer aware services,

Value moves away from the network – (Long Tail, Unpredictable use) and also towards the network(Smart Grids, security, Cloud, mobile health)

A two sided business model ..
Two-sided markets, also called two-sided networks, are economic networks having two distinct user groups that provide each other with network benefits. Ex: credit cards (cardholders, merchants); video games (gamers and game developers); the Internet. Benefits to each group exhibit demand economies of scale on the other. Consumers, prefer credit cards honoured by more merchants and while merchants prefer cards carried by more consumers.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-sided_market

Devices, networks and Appstores themselves are part of the ecosystem i.e. Enablers between the customer and the developer

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The ecosystem ..
http://www.elmspuzzles.com/gallery/Robinson/Watering%20Hole.jpg

Choosing the least worst option ..
Like voting .. People will choose the least worst option

The irony …
Eight years …
i-mode launch 22 February 1999
i-Phone launch January 9, 2007

Closed to open ..
Locked - closed platforms - open platforms - web apps

Live and let die ..
Live and let die .. OR Mobile apps vs.. the Mobile Web?

Twitter must die ..
Twitter must die for the real time web to live ..

iPhone must die for ..
Mobile Web Apps Will Win In The Long Haul – Vic Gundotra .. Google ..

The rise and rise of the iPhone
According to Frost and Sullivan, App store downloads are forecast to reach 6.7B by 2014

The rise and rise of the iPhone
In Nov 2009, App Store carried more items than the world’s largest retailer, Wal-Mart, which merchandises about 100,000 items per store.

Not all free ...

Appstore inside ..
‘Appstore inside’ – Not just the usual suspects. Allow unpredictable use(generative) – anything can be a platform - adapted from Distimo

5 characteristics of an app store ..
Five Characteristics of appstores : visionmobile
- Single marketplace (submission, certification, targeting, pricing)
- Centralised billing , settlement, reporting
- Global distribution - across handsets, operators, off deck
- Provisioning (install upgrades etc)
- On device discovery - discovery, catalogue, marketing

The web platform ..
The web platform – source O Reilly

Web OS
Web OS – execution environment for cloud applications.
It goes beyond just making the Web local(HTML5 already does that).
Specifically, If Identity and context become agnostic - then services will be nomadic and personalised.
The web OS obtains the profile, determines the context, personalizes the web service.
Bridges the Web and the mobile

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Identity
Profile
Context
Web OS
Web OS
Personalise ..
Personalise ..
Web OS for TV?

10 reasons why web wins ..
1) UI: UI fragmentation is minimised through web standards
2) No IPR: There is a potentially a relationship between IPR status and fragmentation. i.e. : if there exists revenue generating IPR on a technology there is a financial incentive (from non holders) to create alternatives and fragment
3) Ease of programming: web is easier to program than other languages
4) Web technology embraces the graphical creatives i.e. allows UI people to more easily engage in apps
5) Web is proven
6) Visible code/open source which could help leverage new users
7) Same code potentially works across web and mobile
8) Widgets are a common paradigm across web and mobile
9) Many of the ecosystem gaps are being overcome(billing)
10) More programmers know it

Who will dominate ..
Everyone will ‘survive’ – Qs is who will dominate?
Ethos of the Web is ‘winner take all’ provided that they serve the customer(and by extension the developer)

The Cambrian explosion ..
Multiple ecosystems .. Thrive and proliferate .. And that’s a healthy state .. But the web always catches up – faster bandwidth – faster processors

Demos ..
3D graphics – o3d - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uofWfXOzX-g
Drag and drop - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wmf87PyU18M
Gifter - http://htmlfive.appspot.com/static/gifter.html
Draw - http://htmlfive.appspot.com/static/draw.html

Demos ..

Macromyopia ..
Macromyopia – short term over estimate. Long term – under estimate

Open Mobile ..
Open Mobile - soft copy now free - 298 pages.
Email me at Ajit.jaokar@futuretext.com.
Print copy £19.99 / €19.99 / USD $19.99
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Thanks!
ajit.jaokar@futuretext.com
www.futuretext.com www.opengardensblog.futuretext.com
Publishing
Workshops
Consulting
All images from Google images – copyright owned by respective holders
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Telecoms 2.0: Understanding the Impact of Open Mobile

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