Beyond 3G: Bringing Networks, Terminals and the Web Together

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Martin Sauter presentation at MoMoNo 2nd anniversary

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Beyond 3G: Bringing Networks, Terminals and the Web Together

  1. 1. Mobile Monday Oslo 25 January 2010 Beyond 3G – Bringing Networks, Terminals & The Web Together Impact and Possibilities for Future Services Martin Sauter V0.1 Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 1
  2. 2. Who Am I • (Wireless) Network Researcher and Blogger • Book Author Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 2
  3. 3. Future Services By Whom? • Internet based companies (Google, Skype, Yahoo, startups, etc.) • Their business model: Idea, trial and error, free at the beginning, later funded by advertising and premium services • Network Operators • Their business model: Pay for services from day one → Interop. and getting a critical mass is difficult This presentation looks at how Network Operators can benefit from the Network Evolution Trends Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 3
  4. 4. Trend 1: Wireless Networks Are Evolving • UMTS → HSPA → HSPA+ and LTE • Digital Dividend for Broadband Everywhere • LTE is at the doorstep, promises even higher speeds • Lots of improvements to achieve higher speeds like higher order modulation and MIMO. • The good news: Higher top speeds will help us for some time to escape bandwidth bottlenecks. • The bad news: Super high speeds only in selected places! Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 4
  5. 5. Higher Speeds But Not Everywhere Ericsson Review article shows maximum speed depending on location. http://tinyurl.com/dk6c2p (not included due to copyright reasons but available via this link, see Figure 2) Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 5
  6. 6. The Problem with %-values and Graphs - FUD ? No absolute values here! 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 • 200% sounds much more than 3x, but it's actually not! • Without a base line, %-values are meaningless. • Open ended graphs going straight up say nothing about future developments. But they suggest... Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 6
  7. 7. Cellular Capacity Today and Tomorrow • 3G Network Capacity Today: ~30 MBit/s per km² (4 UMTS networks, one BTS per operator per km², 3 sectors, single carrier) • Based on 70 MB of daily data traffic (~2 GB/month) that's good for 800 users per km² • Potential 3G Capacity Tomorrow: ~ 500 MBit/s per km² (use of full capacity in 800, 900, 2100 and 2600 Mhz with HSPA and LTE) → But: Who can predict how many people will use the system in the future and how traffic develops? * If you are interested in the details for the numbers, please ask me Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 7
  8. 8. Trend 2: Fixed Line Advances • ADSL speeds are increasing • ADSL2+ available in many locations • VDSL now being deployed: But: Expensive! • Fiber to the Home → Almost infinite capacity and A VDSL cabinet reachability. But: Even more expensive! And on top: It's fixed line but most people don't use it with a cable → Wi-Fi is also wireless! Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 8
  9. 9. Fixed Line Capacity Growth • ADSL over copper to the telephone exchange can 'only' offer bandwidths of a few Mbit/s for most users. • Fiber deployments to the street or home unavoidable to offer speeds in the 10's of Mbit/s. → expensive! • These Fiber deployments are also very beneficial for the backhaul of wireless networks! • Fixed line data traffic growth follows a similar path as in wireless → wireless data growth is not something special! • Significant investments required in fixed line networks as well, not only in wireless (but not as many complain about it...) Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 9
  10. 10. Trend 3: Fixed – Wireless Reintegration • Wireless Operators are buying fixed line assets again. • With the Internet, operators have finally understood that it makes no sense anymore to offer fixed and mobile services separately as most users want both! → Usability break! • Complete reversal over earlier trend! Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 10
  11. 11. Example: In Germany 3 out of 4 Operators are Re-Integrating + + + Telefonica Fixed Line Assets (Long Distance + DSL) Some already offer products beyond just a single bill! Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 11
  12. 12. Trend 4: Femtocells - Making use of Fixed Line Assets • Femtos will be integrated into a single DSL-modem / Wi-Fi / Picocell package. • The first obvious use: It's good for offloading a significant amount of traffic from the macro network. Image: ip.access Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 12
  13. 13. Putting all 4 Trends together leads to: Connected Home Services • „Mobile“ devices (phones, smartphones, mp3 players, cameras) interact with the „fixed“ devices in the home network (PC, Network Attached Storage containing pictures, videos, and other private information) • Access to „fixed devices“ and data stored on them also while being outside the home network via the cellular network. Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 13
  14. 14. Connected Home Services Femtos vs. Wi-Fi • Femtos great for network operators • Wi-Fi great for Internet companies • Who will win? • Maybe both should win? • Peaceful coexistence. • Always best connected (best as in fastest, cheapest, most convenient). Possible with both femtos and Wi-Fi. → Intelligent Software Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 14
  15. 15. Trend 5: Cloud Computing • What is it, who likes it and why? → Computing resources in the network and storing data (calendar, address book, files, etc.) somewhere in the Internet. • Who doesn't like it and why? → inherent privacy and security issues, wanted and unwanted. → Connected Home Networks as an alternative to cloud computing to protect data and privacy! Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 15
  16. 16. Summary • Trend 1: Wireless Network Evolution • Trend 2: Fixed Network Evolution • Trend 3: Fixed - Wireless Re-Integration • Trend 4: Femtos + Wi-Fi → These trends pave the way for Connected Home Services • Trend 5: Cloud Computing • Anti-Trend 5: From the Cloud to the Home → Great possibilities for network operators in the future! Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 16
  17. 17. Thank You! Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 17

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