Martin Sauter presentation at MoMoNo 2nd anniversary

1. Mobile Monday Oslo
25 January 2010
Beyond 3G – Bringing Networks,
Terminals & The Web Together
Impact and Possibilities for Future Services
Martin Sauter
V0.1
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 1

2. Who Am I
• (Wireless) Network Researcher and Blogger
• Book Author
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 2

3. Future Services By Whom?
• Internet based companies (Google, Skype,
Yahoo, startups, etc.)
• Their business model: Idea, trial and error, free at
the beginning, later funded by advertising and
premium services
• Network Operators
• Their business model: Pay for services from day
one → Interop. and getting a critical mass is difficult
This presentation looks at how Network Operators
can benefit from the Network Evolution Trends
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 3

4. Trend 1: Wireless Networks Are
Evolving
• UMTS → HSPA → HSPA+ and LTE
• Digital Dividend for Broadband Everywhere
• LTE is at the doorstep, promises even higher speeds
• Lots of improvements to achieve higher speeds like
higher order modulation and MIMO.
• The good news: Higher top speeds will help us for
some time to escape bandwidth bottlenecks.
• The bad news: Super high speeds only in selected
places!
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 4

5. Higher Speeds But Not Everywhere
Ericsson Review article shows maximum speed
depending on location.
http://tinyurl.com/dk6c2p
(not included due to copyright reasons but available via this link, see Figure 2)
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 5

6. The Problem with %-values and
Graphs - FUD
?
No absolute
values here!
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
• 200% sounds much more than 3x, but it's actually not!
• Without a base line, %-values are meaningless.
• Open ended graphs going straight up say nothing about future developments. But
they suggest...
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 6

7. Cellular Capacity Today and
Tomorrow
• 3G Network Capacity Today: ~30 MBit/s per km²
(4 UMTS networks, one BTS per operator per km², 3 sectors, single carrier)
• Based on 70 MB of daily data traffic (~2 GB/month) that's
good for 800 users per km²
• Potential 3G Capacity Tomorrow: ~ 500 MBit/s per km²
(use of full capacity in 800, 900, 2100 and 2600 Mhz with HSPA and LTE)
→ But: Who can predict how many people will use the
system in the future and how traffic develops?
* If you are interested in the details for the numbers, please ask me
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 7

8. Trend 2: Fixed Line Advances
• ADSL speeds are increasing
• ADSL2+ available in many
locations
• VDSL now being deployed:
But: Expensive!
• Fiber to the Home
→ Almost infinite capacity and A VDSL cabinet
reachability.
But: Even more expensive!
And on top: It's fixed line but most people don't use it with
a cable → Wi-Fi is also wireless!
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 8

9. Fixed Line Capacity Growth
• ADSL over copper to the telephone exchange can 'only'
offer bandwidths of a few Mbit/s for most users.
• Fiber deployments to the street or home unavoidable to
offer speeds in the 10's of Mbit/s. → expensive!
• These Fiber deployments are also very beneficial for the
backhaul of wireless networks!
• Fixed line data traffic growth follows a similar path as in
wireless → wireless data growth is not something special!
• Significant investments required in fixed line networks as
well, not only in wireless (but not as many complain about
it...)
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 9

10. Trend 3: Fixed – Wireless
Reintegration
• Wireless Operators are buying fixed line assets
again.
• With the Internet, operators have finally
understood that it makes no sense anymore to
offer fixed and mobile services separately as
most users want both! → Usability break!
• Complete reversal over earlier trend!
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 10

11. Example: In Germany 3 out of 4
Operators are Re-Integrating
+ + +
Telefonica Fixed Line Assets
(Long Distance + DSL)
Some already offer products beyond just a single bill!
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 11

12. Trend 4: Femtocells - Making use
of Fixed Line Assets
• Femtos will be integrated
into a single DSL-modem /
Wi-Fi / Picocell package.
• The first obvious use: It's
good for offloading a
significant amount of traffic
from the macro network.
Image: ip.access
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 12

13. Putting all 4 Trends together leads
to: Connected Home Services
• „Mobile“ devices (phones, smartphones, mp3
players, cameras) interact with the „fixed“ devices in
the home network (PC, Network Attached Storage
containing pictures, videos, and other private
information)
• Access to „fixed devices“ and data stored on them
also while being outside the home network via the
cellular network.
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 13

14. Connected Home Services
Femtos vs. Wi-Fi
• Femtos great for network operators
• Wi-Fi great for Internet companies
• Who will win?
• Maybe both should win?
• Peaceful coexistence.
• Always best connected (best as in fastest, cheapest,
most convenient). Possible with both femtos and
Wi-Fi. → Intelligent Software
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 14

15. Trend 5: Cloud Computing
• What is it, who likes it and why? → Computing resources
in the network and storing data (calendar, address book,
files, etc.) somewhere in the Internet.
• Who doesn't like it and why? → inherent privacy and
security issues, wanted and unwanted.
→ Connected Home Networks as an alternative
to cloud computing to protect data and privacy!
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 15

16. Summary
• Trend 1: Wireless Network Evolution
• Trend 2: Fixed Network Evolution
• Trend 3: Fixed - Wireless Re-Integration
• Trend 4: Femtos + Wi-Fi
→ These trends pave the way for Connected Home Services
• Trend 5: Cloud Computing
• Anti-Trend 5: From the Cloud to the Home
→ Great possibilities for network operators in the future!
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 16

17. Thank You!
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Mobile Monday Oslo - January 2010 17