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“ Do  Current  Account Deficits Matter?” By Atish Ghosh and Uma Ramakrishnan
Order of inquiry ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What exactly is the current account balance and how is it determined? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Measuring the Current Account ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What is a current account deficit? ,[object Object]
The U.S Current Account Balance for 2002 (U.S. $ Billions)   Source: Data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, published online January 28, 2004.  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Does it matter how the current account deficit is measured or defined? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What causes a current account deficit? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Trends… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Do current account deficits matter? ,[object Object],[object Object]
Do current account deficits matter? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Do current account deficits matter? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Bernanke on the US Current Account Deficit 2/14/07 Source: http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/14/news/economy/bernanke_remarks/index.htm?postversion=2007021412 ,[object Object]
Alternative view of the Current Account Deficit and the US Economy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Alternative view continued… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Implications ,[object Object],[object Object]
A final thought…. ,[object Object]

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"Do Current Account Deficits Matter?"

  • 1. “ Do Current Account Deficits Matter?” By Atish Ghosh and Uma Ramakrishnan
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Editor's Notes

  1. So
  2. The Asian economic crisis was the result of speculation on the Thai baht which caused foreign investors to short sell the baht which led to an extreme devaluation of the baht and the crash of the Thai stock market. Thailand had taken out short term loans from abroad to finance domestic projects many of which were for housing for which there was an over supply and a lack of demand. As businesses stopped being able to pay their loans, it looked as though the Thai gov, borrowers would default on their international loans and this led to the speculation. There was simply an oversupply of Thai baht in the hands of foreigners because Thailand had begun importing after a stint of export led growth. There was also a lack of FDI and a lack of foreign exchange reserves. There was slower growth in partner countries as China had not emerged fully and the baht was tied to the dollar which caused it to appreciate prematurely and then crash with the speculation. Had there not been a current account deficit that put the Thai baht in the hands of foreigners the Asian economic crisis could likely have been avoided.