Unveiling the Characteristics of Political Institutions_ A Comprehensive Anal...
Us employment decoded
1. US Employment Decoded
• Based on “Uncooked” Books, same methods of
calculation used for all terms.
• All data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• 2012 derived via linear extrapolation from the
end of 2011 (2012 mid-year, stats will be released
June, 2012).
• Job creation calculated at the end of each term of
office. All raw numbers are in millions (000,000s)
2. A Point Worth Noting
President Inherited
Economic
Crisis?
Reagan 1 Yes
Reagan 2 No
Bush No
Clinton 1 Iffy
Clinton 2 No
Bush 1 Yes
Bush 2 No
Obama Yes
3. Raw Labor Statistics by Presidential Term
Working Civilian Not in
Age Labor Labor
Prex Year Population Population Force Employed Unemployed Force
Carter 1980 227 168 107 99 8 61
Reagan 1 1984 236 176 114 105 9 62
Reagan 2 1988 245 185 122 115 7 63
Bush 1992 255 193 128 119 9 65
Clinton 1 1996 269 201 134 130 4 67
Clinton 2 2002 282 213 143 137 6 70
Bush 1 2004 293 223 147 139 8 76
Bush 2 2008 304 234 154 145 9 80
Obama 2012 313 240 152 141 11 88
•Working Age Population is the sum of Employed, Unemployed and Not in Labor Force
•Not in Labor Force means not looking for a job. Reasons may include:
•House Spouse
•Completely Retired
•Financially Independent.
•Tired of looking and gave up, now living on outside support.
4. Job Creation by Term
As % of Working As % of Civilian
Prex Jobs Created Age Population Workforce
Reagan 1 5.3 3.01% 4.95%
Reagan 2 10.7 5.78% 9.39%
Bush 2.6 1.35% 2.13%
Clinton 1 11.5 5.72% 8.98%
Clinton 2 11.2 5.26% 8.36%
Bush 1 0 0.00% 0.00%
Bush 2 1.1 0.47% 0.75%
Obama -1.2 -0.50% -0.78%
5. Employed, Unemployed, Not in Labor Force
160
140
120
100
80 Employed
Not in Labor Force
60
Unemployed
40
20
0
•Employment begins decline in last year of Bush 2, Continues Trend with Obama.
•Unemployment follows 20 year trend.
•“Not In Labor Force” spikes upward with Obama, and continues upward.
6. End of Term Unemployment Rate
10.00%
9.00%
8.00%
7.00%
6.00%
5.00%
Unemployment Rate
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
Carter Reagan Reagan Bush Clinton Clinton Bush Bush Obama
•On the face of it, very little has changed in the last three terms.
•It is worth noting that BLS uses SIX difference ways
to calculate unemployment. Don’t try this at home.
7. However, a deeper Dive into Employment vs.
Population Growth is Instructive.
Working-
Age Not in Labor
Jobs Population Population Labor Force Force
Prex Created Change Change Change Change
Reagan 5.3 9 8 7 1
Reagan 10.7 9 9 8 1
Bush 2.6 10 8 6 2
Clinton 11.5 14 8 6 2
Clinton 11.2 13 12 9 3
Bush 0 11 10 4 6
Bush 1.1 11 11 7 4
Obama -1.2 11 6 -2 8
8. Jobs Created vs. Population Change
16
14
12
10
8
Jobs Created
Population Change
6
4
2
0
Reagan Reagan Bush Clinton Clinton Bush Bush Obama
-2
9. Jobs Created vs. Work Age Population Change
14
12
10
8
Jobs Created
6
Working-Age Population Change
4
2
0
Reagan Reagan Bush Clinton Clinton Bush Bush Obama
-2
10. Jobs Created vs. Work Force Change
14
12
10
8
6
Jobs Created
Labor Force Change
4
2
0
Reagan Reagan Bush Clinton Clinton Bush Bush Obama
-2
-4
11. And the Winner! Jobs Created vs. Not
In Labor Force Change
14
12
10
8
Jobs Created
6
Not in Labor Force Change
4
2
0
Reagan Reagan Bush Clinton Clinton Bush Bush Obama
-2
12. Why the Increase?
• Single Spouse Earner Households Relatively Flat.
• Financially Independent Households took a dip in
late 2008, but it’s still pretty flat.
• While Retirements are on the rise, “Completely
Retired” if you aren’t Financially Independent is
very unlikely and it sure isn’t increasing.
• That leaves “I’ve just given up because I’m getting
help from a third party.”
13. So why Don’t the Media Stats Look Like This?
1. The political number crunchers decide which
“groups” to include or exclude based on what
they want you to believe.
2. Axis scales are changed to exaggerate or limit
the appearance of change based on what
they want you to believe.
3. I know this will shock many, but often they
just make stuff up, knowing they are
preaching to the choir.