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US Employment Decoded
• Based on “Uncooked” Books, same methods of
  calculation used for all terms.
• All data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• 2012 derived via linear extrapolation from the
  end of 2011 (2012 mid-year, stats will be released
  June, 2012).
• Job creation calculated at the end of each term of
  office. All raw numbers are in millions (000,000s)
A Point Worth Noting
    President    Inherited
                 Economic
                 Crisis?
     Reagan 1       Yes
     Reagan 2        No
       Bush          No
     Clinton 1      Iffy
     Clinton 2       No
      Bush 1        Yes
      Bush 2         No
     Obama          Yes
Raw Labor Statistics by Presidential Term
                                       Working Civilian                        Not in
                                         Age      Labor                        Labor
     Prex        Year   Population    Population Force    Employed Unemployed Force
     Carter        1980         227           168     107        99          8       61
     Reagan 1      1984         236           176     114       105          9       62
     Reagan 2      1988         245           185     122       115          7       63
     Bush          1992         255           193     128       119          9       65
     Clinton 1     1996         269           201     134       130          4       67
     Clinton 2     2002         282           213     143       137          6       70
     Bush 1        2004         293           223     147       139          8       76
     Bush 2        2008         304           234     154       145          9       80
     Obama         2012         313           240     152       141         11       88



•Working Age Population is the sum of Employed, Unemployed and Not in Labor Force
•Not in Labor Force means not looking for a job. Reasons may include:
     •House Spouse
     •Completely Retired
     •Financially Independent.
     •Tired of looking and gave up, now living on outside support.
Job Creation by Term

                                   As % of Working    As % of Civilian
    Prex      Jobs Created         Age Population       Workforce
Reagan 1                     5.3              3.01%               4.95%
Reagan 2                 10.7                 5.78%               9.39%
Bush                         2.6              1.35%               2.13%
Clinton 1                11.5                 5.72%               8.98%
Clinton 2                11.2                 5.26%               8.36%
Bush 1                        0               0.00%               0.00%
Bush 2                       1.1              0.47%               0.75%
Obama                    -1.2                -0.50%              -0.78%
Employed, Unemployed, Not in Labor Force
              160

              140

              120

              100

               80                               Employed
                                                Not in Labor Force
               60
                                                Unemployed

               40

               20

                0




•Employment begins decline in last year of Bush 2, Continues Trend with Obama.
•Unemployment follows 20 year trend.
•“Not In Labor Force” spikes upward with Obama, and continues upward.
End of Term Unemployment Rate
    10.00%

     9.00%

     8.00%

     7.00%

     6.00%

     5.00%
                                                                                         Unemployment Rate
     4.00%

     3.00%

     2.00%

     1.00%

     0.00%
             Carter   Reagan   Reagan   Bush   Clinton   Clinton   Bush   Bush   Obama




•On the face of it, very little has changed in the last three terms.
•It is worth noting that BLS uses SIX difference ways
 to calculate unemployment. Don’t try this at home. 
However, a deeper Dive into Employment vs.
    Population Growth is Instructive.
                                     Working-
                                       Age                  Not in Labor
             Jobs     Population    Population Labor Force     Force
    Prex   Created     Change        Change      Change       Change
 Reagan           5.3           9             8           7            1
 Reagan         10.7            9             9           8            1
 Bush             2.6          10             8           6            2
 Clinton        11.5           14             8           6            2
 Clinton        11.2           13            12           9            3
 Bush               0          11            10           4            6
 Bush             1.1          11            11           7            4
 Obama          -1.2           11             6          -2            8
Jobs Created vs. Population Change
   16


   14


   12


   10


    8
                                                                           Jobs Created
                                                                           Population Change
    6


    4


    2


    0
        Reagan   Reagan   Bush   Clinton   Clinton   Bush   Bush   Obama
   -2
Jobs Created vs. Work Age Population Change
    14



    12



    10



     8


                                                                        Jobs Created
     6
                                                                        Working-Age Population Change


     4



     2



     0
         Reagan Reagan   Bush   Clinton Clinton   Bush   Bush   Obama

    -2
Jobs Created vs. Work Force Change
 14


 12


 10


  8


  6
                                                                         Jobs Created
                                                                         Labor Force Change
  4


  2


  0
      Reagan   Reagan   Bush   Clinton   Clinton   Bush   Bush   Obama
 -2


 -4
And the Winner! Jobs Created vs. Not
       In Labor Force Change
  14


  12


  10


   8

                                                                          Jobs Created
   6
                                                                          Not in Labor Force Change

   4


   2


   0
       Reagan   Reagan   Bush   Clinton   Clinton   Bush   Bush   Obama

  -2
Why the Increase?
• Single Spouse Earner Households Relatively Flat.
• Financially Independent Households took a dip in
  late 2008, but it’s still pretty flat.
• While Retirements are on the rise, “Completely
  Retired” if you aren’t Financially Independent is
  very unlikely and it sure isn’t increasing.
• That leaves “I’ve just given up because I’m getting
  help from a third party.”
So why Don’t the Media Stats Look Like This?

1. The political number crunchers decide which
   “groups” to include or exclude based on what
   they want you to believe.
2. Axis scales are changed to exaggerate or limit
   the appearance of change based on what
   they want you to believe.
3. I know this will shock many, but often they
   just make stuff up, knowing they are
   preaching to the choir.

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Us employment decoded

  • 1. US Employment Decoded • Based on “Uncooked” Books, same methods of calculation used for all terms. • All data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. • 2012 derived via linear extrapolation from the end of 2011 (2012 mid-year, stats will be released June, 2012). • Job creation calculated at the end of each term of office. All raw numbers are in millions (000,000s)
  • 2. A Point Worth Noting President Inherited Economic Crisis? Reagan 1 Yes Reagan 2 No Bush No Clinton 1 Iffy Clinton 2 No Bush 1 Yes Bush 2 No Obama Yes
  • 3. Raw Labor Statistics by Presidential Term Working Civilian Not in Age Labor Labor Prex Year Population Population Force Employed Unemployed Force Carter 1980 227 168 107 99 8 61 Reagan 1 1984 236 176 114 105 9 62 Reagan 2 1988 245 185 122 115 7 63 Bush 1992 255 193 128 119 9 65 Clinton 1 1996 269 201 134 130 4 67 Clinton 2 2002 282 213 143 137 6 70 Bush 1 2004 293 223 147 139 8 76 Bush 2 2008 304 234 154 145 9 80 Obama 2012 313 240 152 141 11 88 •Working Age Population is the sum of Employed, Unemployed and Not in Labor Force •Not in Labor Force means not looking for a job. Reasons may include: •House Spouse •Completely Retired •Financially Independent. •Tired of looking and gave up, now living on outside support.
  • 4. Job Creation by Term As % of Working As % of Civilian Prex Jobs Created Age Population Workforce Reagan 1 5.3 3.01% 4.95% Reagan 2 10.7 5.78% 9.39% Bush 2.6 1.35% 2.13% Clinton 1 11.5 5.72% 8.98% Clinton 2 11.2 5.26% 8.36% Bush 1 0 0.00% 0.00% Bush 2 1.1 0.47% 0.75% Obama -1.2 -0.50% -0.78%
  • 5. Employed, Unemployed, Not in Labor Force 160 140 120 100 80 Employed Not in Labor Force 60 Unemployed 40 20 0 •Employment begins decline in last year of Bush 2, Continues Trend with Obama. •Unemployment follows 20 year trend. •“Not In Labor Force” spikes upward with Obama, and continues upward.
  • 6. End of Term Unemployment Rate 10.00% 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% Unemployment Rate 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% Carter Reagan Reagan Bush Clinton Clinton Bush Bush Obama •On the face of it, very little has changed in the last three terms. •It is worth noting that BLS uses SIX difference ways to calculate unemployment. Don’t try this at home. 
  • 7. However, a deeper Dive into Employment vs. Population Growth is Instructive. Working- Age Not in Labor Jobs Population Population Labor Force Force Prex Created Change Change Change Change Reagan 5.3 9 8 7 1 Reagan 10.7 9 9 8 1 Bush 2.6 10 8 6 2 Clinton 11.5 14 8 6 2 Clinton 11.2 13 12 9 3 Bush 0 11 10 4 6 Bush 1.1 11 11 7 4 Obama -1.2 11 6 -2 8
  • 8. Jobs Created vs. Population Change 16 14 12 10 8 Jobs Created Population Change 6 4 2 0 Reagan Reagan Bush Clinton Clinton Bush Bush Obama -2
  • 9. Jobs Created vs. Work Age Population Change 14 12 10 8 Jobs Created 6 Working-Age Population Change 4 2 0 Reagan Reagan Bush Clinton Clinton Bush Bush Obama -2
  • 10. Jobs Created vs. Work Force Change 14 12 10 8 6 Jobs Created Labor Force Change 4 2 0 Reagan Reagan Bush Clinton Clinton Bush Bush Obama -2 -4
  • 11. And the Winner! Jobs Created vs. Not In Labor Force Change 14 12 10 8 Jobs Created 6 Not in Labor Force Change 4 2 0 Reagan Reagan Bush Clinton Clinton Bush Bush Obama -2
  • 12. Why the Increase? • Single Spouse Earner Households Relatively Flat. • Financially Independent Households took a dip in late 2008, but it’s still pretty flat. • While Retirements are on the rise, “Completely Retired” if you aren’t Financially Independent is very unlikely and it sure isn’t increasing. • That leaves “I’ve just given up because I’m getting help from a third party.”
  • 13. So why Don’t the Media Stats Look Like This? 1. The political number crunchers decide which “groups” to include or exclude based on what they want you to believe. 2. Axis scales are changed to exaggerate or limit the appearance of change based on what they want you to believe. 3. I know this will shock many, but often they just make stuff up, knowing they are preaching to the choir.