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Dr Koonal Shah @ Meningitis & Septicaemia in Adults & Children 2017
1. Koonal Shah, Office of Health Economics
Meningitis and Septicaemia in Children and Adults
British Museum, London 14 November 2017
Value of life and health
Valuing the true impact of preventing
life-threatening illnesses
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Acknowledgements
• This presentation reports selected methods and findings
from an OHE Consulting study conducted for Pfizer
• MRF contributed to the original scope of the study
• OHE Consulting study team: Karla Hernandez-Villafuerte,
Koonal Shah, Paula Lorgelly, Mike Herdman
• Views expressed are my own, unless otherwise indicated
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Brief introduction to
cost-effectiveness analysis
+ effect
+ cost
- effect
- cost
Intervention less
effective and
more costly
Intervention
more effective
and less costly
x
x
x
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Aims of study
• To document the current evidence base available to
inform vaccine adoption decisions
• To summarise the decision making criteria used for
vaccine reimbursement internationally
• To suggest methodological improvements, given the
nature of the benefit derived from vaccines
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Study methods
• Rapid evidence assessment
• Review of economic evaluations of meningococcal vaccine
strategies in three databases
• Reviewed 27 studies undertaken in 13 different countries
• Country comparison
• Semi-structured interviews with experts from seven
countries
• Review of ‘reference case’ approaches in each country
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Economic evaluation studies:
summary of findings
Finding Men B Men C
Men
ACYW
Total
Cost-effective 2 4 2 8
Not cost-effective 4 0 2 6
Mixed results 7 1 3 11
Unclear 0 0 2 2
Total 13 5 9 27
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EQ-5D – a widely used measure
of quality of life
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Consideration of quality of life
(utility)
• 78% of evaluations considered health utility losses
• 33% of evaluations specified the health utility losses by
type of sequelae
• Variation in types of sequelae considered across studies
• Common issue: lack of country-specific data for relevant
sequelae and complications
• Only 22% of evaluations reported the measure used to
capture health utility data (e.g. EQ-5D)
• In England, the JCVI’s solution has been to apply a QALY
adjustment factor (QAF)
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Model parameters and assumptions
• Future costs and benefit streams are typically reduced or
‘discounted’ to reflect the fact that cost/benefits in the
future should not weight as heavily as cost/benefits today
• Many evaluations used a single, constant discount rate
• Alternative approaches often reported in sensitivity
analyses, which showed important changes in conclusions
when the discount rate is altered
• Minority (26%) of evaluations included a dynamic model
capable of intrinsically accounting for herd immunity
• Very few studies considered the health and/or
productivity losses of caregivers
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Decision criteria
Considered in all countries Considered in most countries
Considered in some countries Rarely/never considered
• Clinical outcomes
• Cost-effectiveness
analysis (albeit often
informally)
• Disease burden
• National health system
priorities
• Equity
• Budget impact
• Peace of mind benefits
• Public/societal
preferences
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Peace of mind benefits
• Vaccines are often described as offering ‘peace of mind’
benefits to patients and their caregivers
• Relates to benefit from knowledge of reduced risk of
illness and reduced anxiety linked to disruptions to
normal daily life
• Very difficult to measure, so tend to be ignored in
standard economic evaluation approaches
• But stated preference research may help us to
understand the value of these kinds of intangible benefits
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Utility in anticipation
Time
Utility
(benefit)
A
t1 t2
B
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Public/societal preferences
• Findings in the stated preference literature suggest that
the public would place considerable value on the
availability on vaccines for meningococcal disease
• Evidence suggests that people place greater value on:
• Preventing severe illness vs. preventing mild illness
• Health and survival of younger people vs. older people
• Preventive interventions vs. curative treatments
• Failure to consider these factors in decision making
processes may lead to an underestimation of the value of
vaccines to society
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Some conclusions from the OHE study
• Clear need for better health utility data
• Existing measures may not capture the full burden and
impact of disease on patients’ health (or on caregivers)
• Lack of consensus and consistency, e.g. with respect to
use of discount rates
• Potentially important aspects of value are not formally or
routinely considered in decision making
• Some cause for optimism: the last 15 years have seen a
considerable strengthening in methodological practices
and expanded notions of the value of health interventions
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MRF asks
• Consider alternatives to the EQ-5D to measure the
impact of meningococcal disease
• Promote a list of essentials to be included in a robust
cost-effectiveness analysis for meningococcal disease –
which includes dynamic modelling
• Consider the use of adjustment factors when it is clear
that models cannot fully capture the benefits of vaccines
• Based on suitable research, formally incorporate public
preferences and peace of mind benefits
• Encourage wider debate around discounting rules
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Next steps
• MRF are working with Pfizer to convene a meeting of experts in
Sociology, Anthropology, Meningococcal Epidemiology, Health
Economics, Disease Modelling, Clinical Medicine and Public Health
• Aims of the meeting:
• Explore the present value placed on health and life by society
• Explore existing decision making criteria for meningococcal vaccines
• Discuss factors that should be considered in future decision making
frameworks
• Identify existing research which can be used to inform future evaluations
• Identify gaps in research which need to be filled to strengthen future
meningococcal vaccine evaluations
• Minutes from the meeting will be transformed into a report
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To enquire about additional information and analyses, please contact
Koonal Shah at kshah@ohe.org
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