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Team SixThirty Conference
Building a Smarter Los Angeles – 25 March 2016
Mark Dixon – Executive Architect – Smarter Cities Solutions - IBM Analytics
platypus0@us.ibm.com / markdixon25@gmail.com
Enthralled by the Immediate
Why humans have not adopted Smarter Cities technologies faster
A Biological Perspective
2
Disclaimer
The ideas and assertions presented herein are mine and mine
alone. They should not be construed to be the opinions of the
organization by whom I am employed.
I have attempted, in good faith, to perform due diligence in
“fact-checking” all relevant information provided in this
presentation.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but not their own facts.”
3
Themes
“Every great architect is -- necessarily -- a great poet. He must be a great
original interpreter of his time, his day, his age.”
“The architect must be a prophet . . . if he can't see at least ten years ahead,
then don’t call him an architect.”
– Frank Lloyd Wright
“The interest of the man must be connected with the constitutional rights of
the place...But what is government itself, but the greatest of all reflection on
human nature? If men were angels, no government would be necessary.
– James Madison
“Humanity is a biological species in a biological world...we are exquisitely
well adapted to live on this particular planet. Although exalted in many ways,
we remain an animal species of the global fauna.”
– Edward O. Wilson
4
Agenda
●
Historical Perspectives
●
21st
Century Challenges
●
Governance SitRep
●
Enthralled by the
Immediate
●
Going Forward...
5
Historical Perspectives
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
» - George Santayana
6
Historical Perspectives...
50 years of Science Fiction
7
Historical Perspectives
More recent and esoteric works...
3d-printers – replication
2000
First description of cyberspace
2003
Virtual collaboration and avatars
1991
8
Historical Perspectives
Machine Intelligence...
58 years ago... 5 years ago...
HAL . . . . . . . IBM
9
Historical Perspectives
Personal Communication Devices
87 years ago... 4 years ago...50 years ago...
10
21st
Century Challenges
Sidebar: Context
“ 'What the hell is a millisecond?'...
Light in a vacuum travels at 186 miles a millisecond...Physics is physics”.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/06/magazine/flash-boys-michael-lewis.html
How long did it take George Washington to find out he had been elected POTUS?
Now
.8
seconds
Then
8
days
11
Historical Perspectives
Recycling
Recycling wastewater
”...communities across the state, including
Sonoma Valley, are turning rivers of raw sewage
into clean water...[its] certified organic”
Circa 1973... Circa 2011...
SONOMASONOMA
12
Historical Perspectives
Disease Vectors
50 years ago... 8 years ago...
13
Historical Perspectives
Obesity
1990 2000 2010
http://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/adult.html
A Sofalarity, not a Singularity...
14
Historical Perspectives
Popular Culture: Dystopian views...more prevalent?
“The Lottery”
by Shirley Jackson - 1948
“The Most
Dangerous Game”
by Richard Connell - 1924
15
Historical Perspectives
The Ancient Greek Perspective...
“Those who cannot remember [understand]
the past are condemned to repeat it.”
» - George Santayana
1974
Our Past is laid
out before us...
...and our Future
is rushing up
from behind.
16
Historical Perspectives
A view from Harvard and MIT
“We have created a Star Wars civilization, with Stone Age
emotions, medieval institutions, and god-like
technology...We are terribly confused by the mere fact of our
existence, and a danger to ourselves and to the rest of life.”
•
» – Edward O. Wilson
“...it appears that much of the preparation nature has
invested in us...is failing us. Our neuroanatomy is tuned
to respond to sudden, dramatic changes in our
environment...We focus on immediate needs and
problems, and are trapped by the illusion that what is
most tangible is most real. We’ve been conditioned for
thousands of years to identify with our family, our tribe,
and our local social structures. A future that asks us to
overcome this conditioning...looks alien indeed."
» – Peter M. Senge
17
Historical Perspectives
Num...me vexo?
18
Agenda
●
Historical Perspectives
●
21st
Century Challenges
●
Enthralled by the
Immediate
●
Governance SitRep
●
Going Forward...
19
21st
Century Challenges
Human population growth: AD 0 to 2050
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html
AD 0: 300 million
20
21st
Century Challenges
Human population growth: AD 0 to 2050
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html
AD 1000: 310 million
21
21st
Century Challenges
Human population growth: AD 0 to 2050
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html
AD 1800: 1 billion
22
21st
Century Challenges
Human population growth: AD 0 to 2050
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html
AD 1927: 2 billion
23
21st
Century Challenges
Human population growth: AD 0 to 2050
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html
AD 1960: 3 billion
24
21st
Century Challenges
Human population growth: AD 0 to 2050
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html
AD 1974: 4 billion
25
21st
Century Challenges
Human population growth: AD 0 to 2050
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html
AD 1987: 5 billion
26
21st
Century Challenges
Human population growth: AD 0 to 2050
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html
AD 1999 : 6 billion
27
21st
Century Challenges
Human population growth: AD 0 to 2050
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html
AD 2050 : 9 billion
28
21st
Century Challenges
Human Migration Timeline
Image source: http://www.utexas.edu/features/2007/ancestry/graphics/ancestry5_medium.jpg
Pre-Humans – 2,000,000 years ago
Archaic Humans – 500,000 years ago
200,000 yrs ago 100,000 yrs ago Present
Anatomically
Modern
Humans
Behaviorally
Modern
Humans
50,000 yrs ago
Settlements
Agriculture
Cities
29
Sidebar: Earth's Children Series – Jean M. Auel
30
21st
Century Challenges
Homo Sapiens Sapiens: The ultimate invasive species?
"I think computer
viruses should count
as life. I think it says
something about
human nature that the
only form of life we
have created so far is
purely destructive.
We've created life in
our own image."
- Stephen
Hawking
Man is the most
insane species. We
worship an invisible
God and slaughter a
visible Nature
without realizing that
this Nature is the
invisible God we
worship.
- Hubert
Reeves
31
21st
Century Challenges
Human population and the Keeling Curve (ppm CO2
)
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/7990
32
21st
Century Challenges
ppm CO2
: 800,000 year history
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/7990
33
21st
Century Challenges
The roots of Climate Change Science are almost 200 years old
Joseph Fourier
(heat analytics)
Circa early-1800s
John Tyndall
(infrared radiation/air)
Circa mid-1800s
Svante Arrhenius
(greenhouse effect)
Circa late-1800s
this is cutting-edge 19th century science that we’re now refining.”
“...this is cutting-edge 19th century science that we’re now refining.”
- Rear Admiral David W. Titley (Ret.)
Former Oceanographer and Navigator of the US Navy
34
21st
Century Challenges
Climate Change
"Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide"
J. Hansen, D. Johnson, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, P. Lee, D. Rind, and G.
Russell, Science, vol. 213, 1981, pp. 957-966.
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh and Rein Haarsma
Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI) April 2012
35
21st
Century Challenges
Limits to Growth – System Dynamics
1972
2002
2052
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System_dynamics
36
21st
Century Challenges
Think? Or believe?
http://environment.yale.edu/poe/v2014/
37
Situation Report
The only Box we have...
Source: National Geographic Society – “State of the Earth: 2010”
There are
now about
7 Billion
people on
our planet...
“The future is already here… It is just not evenly distributed.” – Gibbons
38
21st
Century Challenges
Sidebar: Science, Biomimicry and Philosophy
Physics Infrastructure
Chemistry
Biology
Platform
Software
ProcessLife
Digital Building BlocksNatural Building Blocks
Sapience Cognitive
Inorganic
Patterns
Organic
Patterns
Biological
Patterns
Social
Patterns
MoQ Building Blocks
Ethical
Patterns
http://www.moq.org/forum/mcwatt/anthony.html and http://www.quantonics.com/Anthony_McWatts_MoQ_Paper.html
39
Agenda
●
Historical Perspectives
●
21st
Century Challenges
●
Enthralled by the
Immediate
●
Governance SitRep
●
Going Forward...
40
Enthralled by the Immediate
Dilbert said it on the internet, so it must be true...
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/109880240641/sciences-biggest-fail
...I’m on the side that says climate change, for example, is pretty much
what science says it is because the scientific consensus is high. But I
realize half of my fellow-citizens disagree, based on pattern recognition.”
“We humans operate on pattern recognition...
41
Enthralled by the Immediate
Neuroanatomical Architecture
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23036719
http://phenomena.nationalgeographic.com/2014/01/22/let-us-take-a-walk-in-the-brain-my-cover-story-for-national-geographic/
42
Enthralled by the Immediate
Neuroanatomical architecture artifacts
Human Phobias - Irrational fears
Primitive Reflexes – your “lizard brain” at work
Cognitive Biases
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_phobias
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primitive_reflexes
43
Enthralled by the Immediate
Biological Programming – Human Phobias
What is the #1 human phobia in the world?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dangerous_snakes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_mamba
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inland_taipan
44
What is the #2 human phobia in the world?
Enthralled by the Immediate
Biological Programming – Human Phobias
https://www.livescience.com/13434-phobias-fears-acrophobia-heights-agoraphobia-arachnophobia.html
45
Enthralled by the Immediate
Biological Programming – Human Phobias
What is the #3 human phobia in the world?
https://en.wikipedia.org/
"Cumulus Clouds over Yellow Prairie2" by Wing-Chi Poon. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.5 via Commons -
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cumulus_Clouds_over_Yellow_Prairie2.jpg#/media/File:Cumulus_Clouds_over_Yellow_Prairie2.jpg
46
Enthralled by the Immediate
Biological Programming – Human Phobias
What is the #4 human phobia in the world?
US THEM
https://www.livescience.com/13434-phobias-fears-acrophobia-heights-agoraphobia-arachnophobia.html
47
Enthralled by the Immediate
Biological Programming – Human Phobias
What is the #5 human phobia in the world?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear_of_falling
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visual_cliff
48
Enthralled by the Immediate
Biological Programming – Human Phobias
What is the #6 human phobia in the world?
Do blank black screen next and kill all the lights...
49
Enthralled by the Immediate
Biological Programming – Primitive Reflexes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moro_reflex
https://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/ency/images/ency/fullsize/17269.jpg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_lAFst43TE
The Moro Reflex – birth to 3-6 months
50
Enthralled by the Immediate
Biological Programming – Primitive Reflexes
Palmar Grasp Reflex – 16 weeks (in utero) to 6 months
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primitive_reflexes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palmar_grasp_reflex
http://originsofmotherhood.com/images/Got_You_Daddy.jpg
51
Enthralled by the Immediate
Biological Programming – Primitive Reflexes
Hypnic Jerk Reflex – lifetime
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primitive_reflexes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypnic_jerk
http://www.knowledge.info/sites/default/files/images/1/hypnic-Jerk.jpg
52
Enthralled by the Immediate
Biological Programming – Primitive Reflexes
Pilomotor vestigal reflex (goose bumps) – lifetime
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primitive_reflexes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goose_bumps
http://www.personal.psu.edu/afr3/blogs/SIOW/520905761_44867e4caa.jpg
http://www.awf.org/sites/default/files/media/gallery/wildlife/Porcupine/Porcupine4.jpg
53
Enthralled by the Immediate
Biological Programming – Cognitive Biases
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_bias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases
• A systematic pattern of deviation from the norm or rationality in judgment
• A "by-product" of human processing limitations
• Illogical inferences about other people and situations
• People create their own "subjective social reality" - dictate[s] behavior
• Lead to perceptual distortion, inaccurate judgment and illogical interpretation
However...
• Can lead to more effective actions in a given context
• Enable faster decisions – timeliness vs accuracy
54
Enthralled by the Immediate
Biological Programming – Cognitive Biases
http://www.businessinsider.com/cognitive-biases-that-affect-decisions-2015-8
Anchoring Bias – over-reliance on the first piece of information
Blindspot Bias – failing to recognize your own cognitive biases
Confirmation Bias – information that confirms our preconceptions
Ostrich Effect – ignore dangerous or “negative” information
Pro-Innovation Bias – over-valuing usefulness/under-valuing limitations
55
Enthralled by the Immediate
Biological Programming – Cognitive Biases – Rock, Paper, Scissors
http://mentalfloss.com/us/go/77260
“...most humans have a tendency to make moves that are
irrational, unconscious, and to some degree, predictable.”
56
Enthralled by the Immediate
Biological Programming – Dunbar's Number
Dunbar's number is a suggested cognitive limit to the number of people with whom one can
maintain stable social relationships. These are relationships in which an individual knows
who each person is and how each person relates to every other person. Numbers larger
than this generally require more restrictive rules, laws, and enforced norms to maintain a
stable, cohesive group.
●
Species-specific index of social group size (mean neocortical volume)
●
Correlation from non-human primates to predict human group size
●
Human "mean group size" of 148 (regression equation)
●
Large error measure (a 95% confidence interval of 100 to 230)
●
Hunter-gatherer groups
●
Small – bands – 30-50 people
●
Medium – groups – 100-200 people
●
Large – tribes – 500-2,500 people
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunbar's_number
57
Enthralled by the Immediate
Biological Programming – Dunbar's Number – W.L. Gore
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W._L._Gore_and_Associates
●
Gore is a team-based, flat lattice organization that fosters personal initiative.
There are no traditional organizational charts, no chains of command, nor
predetermined channels of communication.
●
Gore is one of the 200 largest privately held U.S. companies
●
2014 was the 3rd consecutive year for World’s Best Multinational Workplaces
●
For the 18th consecutive year, Gore earned a position on the FORTUNE 100
Best Companies to Work For® list in 2015. Gore ranked 17th overall.
●
Gore has also been named one of the best workplaces in France, Germany,
Italy, Korea, Sweden, and the UK. And in 2013, for the first time, Gore was
named one of the best workplaces in China.
●
More than 35 million innovative Gore Medical Devices have been implanted,
saving and improving the quality of lives worldwide.
●
Gore has been granted more than 2,000 patents worldwide in a wide range of
fields
●
Virtually all of Gore's products are based on just one material, a versatile
polymer called ePTFE (expanded polytetrafluoroethylene)
●
$3 billion in annual sales and more than 10,000 associates worldwide, the
company is owned by members of the Gore family and associates. Gore
prefers this private ownership and believes this reinforces a key element of its
culture to “take a long term view” when assessing business situations.
10,000 associates / 50 locations = 200 per location
58
Agenda
●
Historical Perspectives
●
21st
Century Challenges
●
Enthralled by the
Immediate
●
Governance SitRep
●
Going Forward...
59
Situation Report
The Box...
If you're thinking outside the box, you're still in the box!
- Jon Fullinwider
(Ex-CIO Los Angeles and San Diego Counties)
60
Situation Report
Boxed In...
Historical trends return...
The good ol' days will
come back...
“Old Normal” “New Normal”
Government is challenged
to redefine itself to become
more efficient and cost
effective
“We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used to create them...” – Einstein
61
Situation Report
Our Inefficient Box...up to $15 Trillion wasted annually
How to read the chart:
As an example, the Healthcare
system‘s value is $4,270B. It carries
an estimated inefficiency of 42%. From
that level of 42% inefficiency,
economists estimate that ~34% can be
eliminated (= 34% x 42%).
We now have the capabilities to
manage a system-of-systems
planet...
Source: IBM economists survey 2009; n= 480 (*Estimate) – Chart shows “systems”, not “industries”.
System inefficiency as % of total
economic value
Improvementpotentialas
%ofsysteminefficiency
Analysis of inefficiencies in the
...of which $4 Trillion could be eliminated*...
System-of-
systems
$54 Trillion
100% of WW 2008
GDP
Improvement
potential
$4 Trillion
7% of WW 2008
GDP
Inefficiencies
$15 Trillion
28% of WW 2008
GDP
Global economic value of:
62
Situation Report
The “unique” American Box...
“The Eternal Frontier” - An Ecological History of North America
– Isolation: Both a Blessing and a Curse
– Geographic Isolation – a temperate zone between oceans, ice cap and isthmus
– Biological Isolation – native vs. invasive species – flora, fauna and human
– Political Isolation – freedom to start over – greenfield approach
Manifest Destiny – Westward Expansion
– Geographic Enablers and Constraints - Rivers, Mountains, Deserts
– Conestoga Wagons and the Transcontinental Railroad
– Pony Express vs. the telegraph
– Cowboys and Immigrants – a “grass is greener” mentality
• Local Government Topologies – Distance to the County Seat
– 200+ years ago – Eastern seaboard – one day's walk
– 100+ years ago – Western Expansion – one day's ride (horse or buggy)
– Today – almost irrelevant!
• Human Scale vs Global Scale in the US Local Government
– Digital Infrastructure mapped to archaic Physical Infrastructure
– Unsustainable (resource consumption) and non-competitive (world economy)
Geographical and Political Evolution of Local Government Structures
63
Situation Report
Our Local Government Box...2007 Census of Governments
“Real-world problems may not respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper
# of Local Governments by County (darker is denser)
89,47689,476
64
Situation Report
Our Future Boxes...Megapolitan America
“This is an extraordinary book. It completely and--in my largely lay judgment--correctly reorients our thinking about where
our cities and communities are going both physically and in terms of actual living. What an extraordinary contribution to our
thinking on these issues. This should be required reading--and I rarely say that--for every governor, mayor, legislator, city
council member, Chamber of Commerce member, and, indeed, citizen!”
--Michael K. Young, President, University of Washington

USA population projected to be 400 million by 2040

23 megapolitan areas

dominate the nation's economy by 2050

18 percent of the contiguous 48 states' land base

more densely settled than Europe as a whole

Common characteristics

Economic

Landscape

Social

Cultural

Will change how America plans...
Map source: www.america2050.org
65
Situation Report
50% of the US population lives in 146 counties...
“Real-world problems may not respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper
http://www.businessinsider.com/half-of-the-united-states-lives-in-these-counties-2013-9 (Data: US Census Bureau)
66
Situation Report
Boxed in: States can hold cities back...budget dependence...
“Real-world problems may not respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper
http://nextcity.org/daily/entry/state-control-city-tax-spend-fiscal-growth
67
No plans...No blueprints...No architecture...a maintenance nightmare!
• 160 rooms
• 2 ballrooms
• 40 bedrooms
• 6 kitchens
• 2 basements
• 47 fireplaces
• 17 chimneys
• 38 years
• $5.5M
• 1257 windows
• 467 doors
• 52 skylights
• 40 staircases
• 367 steps
Staircase to Ceiling
Circular Staircase
Situation Report
The Box we have built...
68
Situation Report
Current Trends: Information Technology – IBM CAMSS
69
Situation Report
Challenges to Service Delivery
●
Physical Infrastructure
●
2009 ASCE: Grade of “D”
●
$157 Billion/yr needed to 2020
●
$3.1 Trillion in lost productivity – 3.5M jobs
●
Digital Infrastructure
●
The World Economic Forum ranked the US
35th out of 148 countries in Internet bandwidth
●
150Mbps for $130/month - Verizon FiOS in NYC
●
Elsewhere in world - $50-$77/month
●
Underfunded Pensions
●
Cities face $217 Billion gap (61 over 500K)
●
States face $1.38 Trillion Shortfall
●
“The Charitable-Industrial Complex”
●
Peter Buffett OpEd NYTimes
70
Situation Report
The Great Regression
The Great Regression - http://www.cnbc.com/id/44876150
Danger to our physical and economic well-being
2009 I-5 Skagit River bridge in WA – 3 injured
2007 I-35W bridge in Minneapolis - 13 dead and 145 injured
Surface Transportation - $752 Billion by 2020
25% of bridges are structurally deficient or obsolete
4,000 dams are in need of repair
Port of LA - 39K truck trips daily due to insufficient freight rail
Electricity - $107 Billion by 2020
Windstorm – 3.8M people in Mid-Atlantic states - 2012
Equipment – 5M people in SoCal and AZ - 2011
Cold weather – 1M people in Texas - 2011
Water - $84 Billion by 2020
Ports and Waterways - $34 Billion by 2020
71
Situation Report
Current State of Digital Affairs...
“Keeping the lights on” or “putting out fires,” whatever tends to dominate
the CIO’s work schedule.
NASCIO CIO survey:
33% say they spend 90% of time keeping the lights on.
40+% say they spend 75% of time on maintenance
50% say they spend 25% of time or less on “innovation”
30 percent said they spend just 5 % or less of time on “innovation”
http://www.govtech.com/management/7-Ways-to-Innovate-Government-IT.html
72
Agenda
●
Historical Perspectives
●
21st
Century Challenges
●
Governance SitRep
●
Enthralled by the
Immediate
●
Going Forward...
73
Going forward
“The best way to predict the future is to create/invent it.”
» – Moliere/Kay
“Gentlemen, we have run out of money. Now we have to think.”
– Winston Churchill
“You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change
something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.”
» – R. Buckminster Fuller
74
Going Forward
An awakening?
“You can't handle the truth!”
“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful people can change the
world. Indeed, it's the only thing that ever has...”
- Margaret Mead
75
Going Forward
Two inter-related concepts
Regional Government Platform:
Regional clouds for operational systems
Open-source IT infrastructure and applications
Data is created every second of every minute of every hour; we now create 2.5 quintillion bytes of
data per year. That is 2,500,000,000,000,000,000 bits of information.
http://www.businessofgovernment.org/sites/default/files/Realizing the Promise of Big Data.pdf
Cognitive Digital Democracy:
Gaming, Simulation, Modeling (off-shift)
XMILE: OASIS Standard for System Dynamics
76
Going Forward
Cognitive Digital Democracy: Trust issues...
http://insights-on-business.com/government/does-more-open-equate-to-greater-trust-in-government-not-necessarily
General Trust vs Trust in Government
77
Going Forward
Cognitive Digital Democracy: Open Data and Trust in Government
http://insights-on-business.com/government/does-more-open-equate-to-greater-trust-in-government-not-necessarily
78
Going Forward
Lessons from the crowdsourced law reform in Finland
1) People participate in a constructive way
2) The crowd is not delusional about potential impact on the law
3) Crowdsourcing creates learning moments
4) Crowdsourcing as knowledge search
5) The crowd is smart
6) Minority voices were not lost
http://www.businessofgovernment.org/sites/default/files/Realizing the Promise of Big Data.pdf
79
Going Forward
Science...
https://mitpress.mit.edu/search/mitpress_search/michael%20batty
http://discovermagazine.com/2012/oct/21-geoffrey-west-finds-physical-laws-in-cities
http://www.pnas.org/content/104/17/7301.abstract
Walking Speed/Size
Mammalian Heart Rate/Size
80
Going Forward
New Architecture for Smart Cities: Dr. Rick Robinson
http://theurbantechnologist.com/2012/09/26/the-new-architecture-of-smart-cities/
81
Going Forward
Enthralled by the immediate
“...we fail to see the systemic issues because we define urgency by
what is immediate. We are victims of a self-reinforcing crisis of
perception – a crisis of our own making. If it persists, we doom
ourselves to continued passivity.
Only catastrophe will compel action, which, given the growing social
divide that distributes problems like global warming unevenly
between rich and poor, is likely to manifest as social and political
disruption – not unlike what we are already seeing around the
world.
...nothing short of a profound shift in the Western, materialistic
worldview is likely to dislodge this crisis of perception.”
- Peter M. Senge
MIT Professor of Leadership
82
Going Forward
”Takin' on the jellies...you got serious thrill issues, dude!”
The Digital Druid's recommendation / challenge:
Build a cross-discipline, multi-semester course for Smarter Cities
•
Business
Computer Science and Engineering
Public Policy
Environment / Urban Planning / Architecture
http://facultybio.haas.berkeley.edu/faculty-list/darwin-solomon
83
Going Forward
Digital Intelligence
Data that’s
coming
Customer records
Transactional systems
Predictive models
Institutional expertise
Operational systems
News
Events
Geospatial
Weather
Social media
Internet of Things
Sensory data
Images
Video
Data outside
the firewall
Data you
possess ++
Structured and active Unstructured and dark
Understand Reason Learn
Data > Information > Knowledge > Wisdom
84
Going Forward
Cognitive Computing
Think of all that has been
accomplished using only
a fraction of the
available data
Unlock the
possibilities.
What answers
lie in the 88%
that is dark?1
By the year 2020, about
1.7 MB of new information
will be created every second,
for every human being on
the planet.2
1 IBM Research
2 “Big Data: 20 Mind-boggling Facts Everyone Must Read,” Forbes, Sept. 30, 2015
85
Going Forward
Cognitive Computing
Cognitive
systems
interact with humans
naturally to interpret data,
learning from virtually every
interaction and proposing
new possibilities through
probabilistic reasoning.
Programmable
computing
responds to requests and
makes determinations,
analyzing data according
to predefined parameters.
86
Going Forward
Cognitive Computing
“IBM’s Watson is already being used to apply cognitive computing in a wide
range of industries and technologies, from education to banking to
winemaking to urban planning, and so much more.” - Fast Company
“Cognitive everything—by 2018, over 50 percent of developer teams will
embed cognitive services in their apps (versus 1 percent today), providing
U.S. enterprises with over USD$60 billion in annual savings in 2020.” - IDC
“We wanted it to be more personal and intuitive with natural language…. the
results change dramatically as more questions are asked. And customers
can ask questions which would not be possible with filters.” - The North Face
http://www.fastcompany.com/3055148/ibm-under-armour-team-up-to-bring-cognitive-computing-to-fitness-apps
 
https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=259850
http://www.theretailbulletin.com/news/artificial_intelligence_is_proving_popular_than_with_north_face_customers_18-01-16/
87
Going Forward
Cognitive Computing
50%say available data limits
confidence in strategic
decisions
95%
plan to invest in cognitive
Healthcare
believe they can’t
deliver on consumer
expectations
94%
plan to invest in cognitive
Retail
60% 30%say the quality of data is
insufficient for business
model innovation
98%
plan to invest in cognitive
Insurance
http://public.dhe.ibm.com/common/ssi/ecm/gb/en/gbe03731usen/GBE03731USEN.PDF
http://public.dhe.ibm.com/common/ssi/ecm/gb/en/gbe03689usen/GBE03689USEN.PDF
http://www-01.ibm.com/common/ssi/cgi-bin/ssialias?subtype=XB&infotype=PM&htmlfid=GBE03710USEN&attachment=GBE03710USEN.PDF
Gaps in organizational abilities
88
Going Forward
”The Savannah Theory of Happiness...”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/03/18/why-smart-people-are-better-off-with-fewer-friends/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26847844
“When smart people spend more time with their friends, it makes them less happy.”
89
Going Forward
Seventh Generation...the Great Law of the Iroquois
Time is linear...
platypus0@us.ibm.com
markdixon25@gmail.com
@DigitalDruid0
thedigitaldruid.org
Team SixThirty Conference
Building a Smarter Los Angeles – 25 March 2016

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Enthralled by the immediate v5.0 - building a smarter la - team sixthirty - 25mar2016

  • 1. Team SixThirty Conference Building a Smarter Los Angeles – 25 March 2016 Mark Dixon – Executive Architect – Smarter Cities Solutions - IBM Analytics platypus0@us.ibm.com / markdixon25@gmail.com Enthralled by the Immediate Why humans have not adopted Smarter Cities technologies faster A Biological Perspective
  • 2. 2 Disclaimer The ideas and assertions presented herein are mine and mine alone. They should not be construed to be the opinions of the organization by whom I am employed. I have attempted, in good faith, to perform due diligence in “fact-checking” all relevant information provided in this presentation. Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but not their own facts.”
  • 3. 3 Themes “Every great architect is -- necessarily -- a great poet. He must be a great original interpreter of his time, his day, his age.” “The architect must be a prophet . . . if he can't see at least ten years ahead, then don’t call him an architect.” – Frank Lloyd Wright “The interest of the man must be connected with the constitutional rights of the place...But what is government itself, but the greatest of all reflection on human nature? If men were angels, no government would be necessary. – James Madison “Humanity is a biological species in a biological world...we are exquisitely well adapted to live on this particular planet. Although exalted in many ways, we remain an animal species of the global fauna.” – Edward O. Wilson
  • 4. 4 Agenda ● Historical Perspectives ● 21st Century Challenges ● Governance SitRep ● Enthralled by the Immediate ● Going Forward...
  • 5. 5 Historical Perspectives “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” » - George Santayana
  • 7. 7 Historical Perspectives More recent and esoteric works... 3d-printers – replication 2000 First description of cyberspace 2003 Virtual collaboration and avatars 1991
  • 8. 8 Historical Perspectives Machine Intelligence... 58 years ago... 5 years ago... HAL . . . . . . . IBM
  • 9. 9 Historical Perspectives Personal Communication Devices 87 years ago... 4 years ago...50 years ago...
  • 10. 10 21st Century Challenges Sidebar: Context “ 'What the hell is a millisecond?'... Light in a vacuum travels at 186 miles a millisecond...Physics is physics”. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/06/magazine/flash-boys-michael-lewis.html How long did it take George Washington to find out he had been elected POTUS? Now .8 seconds Then 8 days
  • 11. 11 Historical Perspectives Recycling Recycling wastewater ”...communities across the state, including Sonoma Valley, are turning rivers of raw sewage into clean water...[its] certified organic” Circa 1973... Circa 2011... SONOMASONOMA
  • 12. 12 Historical Perspectives Disease Vectors 50 years ago... 8 years ago...
  • 13. 13 Historical Perspectives Obesity 1990 2000 2010 http://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/adult.html A Sofalarity, not a Singularity...
  • 14. 14 Historical Perspectives Popular Culture: Dystopian views...more prevalent? “The Lottery” by Shirley Jackson - 1948 “The Most Dangerous Game” by Richard Connell - 1924
  • 15. 15 Historical Perspectives The Ancient Greek Perspective... “Those who cannot remember [understand] the past are condemned to repeat it.” » - George Santayana 1974 Our Past is laid out before us... ...and our Future is rushing up from behind.
  • 16. 16 Historical Perspectives A view from Harvard and MIT “We have created a Star Wars civilization, with Stone Age emotions, medieval institutions, and god-like technology...We are terribly confused by the mere fact of our existence, and a danger to ourselves and to the rest of life.” • » – Edward O. Wilson “...it appears that much of the preparation nature has invested in us...is failing us. Our neuroanatomy is tuned to respond to sudden, dramatic changes in our environment...We focus on immediate needs and problems, and are trapped by the illusion that what is most tangible is most real. We’ve been conditioned for thousands of years to identify with our family, our tribe, and our local social structures. A future that asks us to overcome this conditioning...looks alien indeed." » – Peter M. Senge
  • 18. 18 Agenda ● Historical Perspectives ● 21st Century Challenges ● Enthralled by the Immediate ● Governance SitRep ● Going Forward...
  • 19. 19 21st Century Challenges Human population growth: AD 0 to 2050 http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html AD 0: 300 million
  • 20. 20 21st Century Challenges Human population growth: AD 0 to 2050 http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html AD 1000: 310 million
  • 21. 21 21st Century Challenges Human population growth: AD 0 to 2050 http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html AD 1800: 1 billion
  • 22. 22 21st Century Challenges Human population growth: AD 0 to 2050 http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html AD 1927: 2 billion
  • 23. 23 21st Century Challenges Human population growth: AD 0 to 2050 http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html AD 1960: 3 billion
  • 24. 24 21st Century Challenges Human population growth: AD 0 to 2050 http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html AD 1974: 4 billion
  • 25. 25 21st Century Challenges Human population growth: AD 0 to 2050 http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html AD 1987: 5 billion
  • 26. 26 21st Century Challenges Human population growth: AD 0 to 2050 http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html AD 1999 : 6 billion
  • 27. 27 21st Century Challenges Human population growth: AD 0 to 2050 http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html AD 2050 : 9 billion
  • 28. 28 21st Century Challenges Human Migration Timeline Image source: http://www.utexas.edu/features/2007/ancestry/graphics/ancestry5_medium.jpg Pre-Humans – 2,000,000 years ago Archaic Humans – 500,000 years ago 200,000 yrs ago 100,000 yrs ago Present Anatomically Modern Humans Behaviorally Modern Humans 50,000 yrs ago Settlements Agriculture Cities
  • 29. 29 Sidebar: Earth's Children Series – Jean M. Auel
  • 30. 30 21st Century Challenges Homo Sapiens Sapiens: The ultimate invasive species? "I think computer viruses should count as life. I think it says something about human nature that the only form of life we have created so far is purely destructive. We've created life in our own image." - Stephen Hawking Man is the most insane species. We worship an invisible God and slaughter a visible Nature without realizing that this Nature is the invisible God we worship. - Hubert Reeves
  • 31. 31 21st Century Challenges Human population and the Keeling Curve (ppm CO2 ) https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/7990
  • 32. 32 21st Century Challenges ppm CO2 : 800,000 year history https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/7990
  • 33. 33 21st Century Challenges The roots of Climate Change Science are almost 200 years old Joseph Fourier (heat analytics) Circa early-1800s John Tyndall (infrared radiation/air) Circa mid-1800s Svante Arrhenius (greenhouse effect) Circa late-1800s this is cutting-edge 19th century science that we’re now refining.” “...this is cutting-edge 19th century science that we’re now refining.” - Rear Admiral David W. Titley (Ret.) Former Oceanographer and Navigator of the US Navy
  • 34. 34 21st Century Challenges Climate Change "Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide" J. Hansen, D. Johnson, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, P. Lee, D. Rind, and G. Russell, Science, vol. 213, 1981, pp. 957-966. Geert Jan van Oldenborgh and Rein Haarsma Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI) April 2012
  • 35. 35 21st Century Challenges Limits to Growth – System Dynamics 1972 2002 2052 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System_dynamics
  • 36. 36 21st Century Challenges Think? Or believe? http://environment.yale.edu/poe/v2014/
  • 37. 37 Situation Report The only Box we have... Source: National Geographic Society – “State of the Earth: 2010” There are now about 7 Billion people on our planet... “The future is already here… It is just not evenly distributed.” – Gibbons
  • 38. 38 21st Century Challenges Sidebar: Science, Biomimicry and Philosophy Physics Infrastructure Chemistry Biology Platform Software ProcessLife Digital Building BlocksNatural Building Blocks Sapience Cognitive Inorganic Patterns Organic Patterns Biological Patterns Social Patterns MoQ Building Blocks Ethical Patterns http://www.moq.org/forum/mcwatt/anthony.html and http://www.quantonics.com/Anthony_McWatts_MoQ_Paper.html
  • 39. 39 Agenda ● Historical Perspectives ● 21st Century Challenges ● Enthralled by the Immediate ● Governance SitRep ● Going Forward...
  • 40. 40 Enthralled by the Immediate Dilbert said it on the internet, so it must be true... http://blog.dilbert.com/post/109880240641/sciences-biggest-fail ...I’m on the side that says climate change, for example, is pretty much what science says it is because the scientific consensus is high. But I realize half of my fellow-citizens disagree, based on pattern recognition.” “We humans operate on pattern recognition...
  • 41. 41 Enthralled by the Immediate Neuroanatomical Architecture https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23036719 http://phenomena.nationalgeographic.com/2014/01/22/let-us-take-a-walk-in-the-brain-my-cover-story-for-national-geographic/
  • 42. 42 Enthralled by the Immediate Neuroanatomical architecture artifacts Human Phobias - Irrational fears Primitive Reflexes – your “lizard brain” at work Cognitive Biases https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_phobias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primitive_reflexes
  • 43. 43 Enthralled by the Immediate Biological Programming – Human Phobias What is the #1 human phobia in the world? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dangerous_snakes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_mamba https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inland_taipan
  • 44. 44 What is the #2 human phobia in the world? Enthralled by the Immediate Biological Programming – Human Phobias https://www.livescience.com/13434-phobias-fears-acrophobia-heights-agoraphobia-arachnophobia.html
  • 45. 45 Enthralled by the Immediate Biological Programming – Human Phobias What is the #3 human phobia in the world? https://en.wikipedia.org/ "Cumulus Clouds over Yellow Prairie2" by Wing-Chi Poon. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.5 via Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cumulus_Clouds_over_Yellow_Prairie2.jpg#/media/File:Cumulus_Clouds_over_Yellow_Prairie2.jpg
  • 46. 46 Enthralled by the Immediate Biological Programming – Human Phobias What is the #4 human phobia in the world? US THEM https://www.livescience.com/13434-phobias-fears-acrophobia-heights-agoraphobia-arachnophobia.html
  • 47. 47 Enthralled by the Immediate Biological Programming – Human Phobias What is the #5 human phobia in the world? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear_of_falling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visual_cliff
  • 48. 48 Enthralled by the Immediate Biological Programming – Human Phobias What is the #6 human phobia in the world? Do blank black screen next and kill all the lights...
  • 49. 49 Enthralled by the Immediate Biological Programming – Primitive Reflexes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moro_reflex https://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/ency/images/ency/fullsize/17269.jpg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_lAFst43TE The Moro Reflex – birth to 3-6 months
  • 50. 50 Enthralled by the Immediate Biological Programming – Primitive Reflexes Palmar Grasp Reflex – 16 weeks (in utero) to 6 months https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primitive_reflexes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palmar_grasp_reflex http://originsofmotherhood.com/images/Got_You_Daddy.jpg
  • 51. 51 Enthralled by the Immediate Biological Programming – Primitive Reflexes Hypnic Jerk Reflex – lifetime https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primitive_reflexes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypnic_jerk http://www.knowledge.info/sites/default/files/images/1/hypnic-Jerk.jpg
  • 52. 52 Enthralled by the Immediate Biological Programming – Primitive Reflexes Pilomotor vestigal reflex (goose bumps) – lifetime https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primitive_reflexes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goose_bumps http://www.personal.psu.edu/afr3/blogs/SIOW/520905761_44867e4caa.jpg http://www.awf.org/sites/default/files/media/gallery/wildlife/Porcupine/Porcupine4.jpg
  • 53. 53 Enthralled by the Immediate Biological Programming – Cognitive Biases https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_bias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases • A systematic pattern of deviation from the norm or rationality in judgment • A "by-product" of human processing limitations • Illogical inferences about other people and situations • People create their own "subjective social reality" - dictate[s] behavior • Lead to perceptual distortion, inaccurate judgment and illogical interpretation However... • Can lead to more effective actions in a given context • Enable faster decisions – timeliness vs accuracy
  • 54. 54 Enthralled by the Immediate Biological Programming – Cognitive Biases http://www.businessinsider.com/cognitive-biases-that-affect-decisions-2015-8 Anchoring Bias – over-reliance on the first piece of information Blindspot Bias – failing to recognize your own cognitive biases Confirmation Bias – information that confirms our preconceptions Ostrich Effect – ignore dangerous or “negative” information Pro-Innovation Bias – over-valuing usefulness/under-valuing limitations
  • 55. 55 Enthralled by the Immediate Biological Programming – Cognitive Biases – Rock, Paper, Scissors http://mentalfloss.com/us/go/77260 “...most humans have a tendency to make moves that are irrational, unconscious, and to some degree, predictable.”
  • 56. 56 Enthralled by the Immediate Biological Programming – Dunbar's Number Dunbar's number is a suggested cognitive limit to the number of people with whom one can maintain stable social relationships. These are relationships in which an individual knows who each person is and how each person relates to every other person. Numbers larger than this generally require more restrictive rules, laws, and enforced norms to maintain a stable, cohesive group. ● Species-specific index of social group size (mean neocortical volume) ● Correlation from non-human primates to predict human group size ● Human "mean group size" of 148 (regression equation) ● Large error measure (a 95% confidence interval of 100 to 230) ● Hunter-gatherer groups ● Small – bands – 30-50 people ● Medium – groups – 100-200 people ● Large – tribes – 500-2,500 people https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunbar's_number
  • 57. 57 Enthralled by the Immediate Biological Programming – Dunbar's Number – W.L. Gore https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W._L._Gore_and_Associates ● Gore is a team-based, flat lattice organization that fosters personal initiative. There are no traditional organizational charts, no chains of command, nor predetermined channels of communication. ● Gore is one of the 200 largest privately held U.S. companies ● 2014 was the 3rd consecutive year for World’s Best Multinational Workplaces ● For the 18th consecutive year, Gore earned a position on the FORTUNE 100 Best Companies to Work For® list in 2015. Gore ranked 17th overall. ● Gore has also been named one of the best workplaces in France, Germany, Italy, Korea, Sweden, and the UK. And in 2013, for the first time, Gore was named one of the best workplaces in China. ● More than 35 million innovative Gore Medical Devices have been implanted, saving and improving the quality of lives worldwide. ● Gore has been granted more than 2,000 patents worldwide in a wide range of fields ● Virtually all of Gore's products are based on just one material, a versatile polymer called ePTFE (expanded polytetrafluoroethylene) ● $3 billion in annual sales and more than 10,000 associates worldwide, the company is owned by members of the Gore family and associates. Gore prefers this private ownership and believes this reinforces a key element of its culture to “take a long term view” when assessing business situations. 10,000 associates / 50 locations = 200 per location
  • 58. 58 Agenda ● Historical Perspectives ● 21st Century Challenges ● Enthralled by the Immediate ● Governance SitRep ● Going Forward...
  • 59. 59 Situation Report The Box... If you're thinking outside the box, you're still in the box! - Jon Fullinwider (Ex-CIO Los Angeles and San Diego Counties)
  • 60. 60 Situation Report Boxed In... Historical trends return... The good ol' days will come back... “Old Normal” “New Normal” Government is challenged to redefine itself to become more efficient and cost effective “We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used to create them...” – Einstein
  • 61. 61 Situation Report Our Inefficient Box...up to $15 Trillion wasted annually How to read the chart: As an example, the Healthcare system‘s value is $4,270B. It carries an estimated inefficiency of 42%. From that level of 42% inefficiency, economists estimate that ~34% can be eliminated (= 34% x 42%). We now have the capabilities to manage a system-of-systems planet... Source: IBM economists survey 2009; n= 480 (*Estimate) – Chart shows “systems”, not “industries”. System inefficiency as % of total economic value Improvementpotentialas %ofsysteminefficiency Analysis of inefficiencies in the ...of which $4 Trillion could be eliminated*... System-of- systems $54 Trillion 100% of WW 2008 GDP Improvement potential $4 Trillion 7% of WW 2008 GDP Inefficiencies $15 Trillion 28% of WW 2008 GDP Global economic value of:
  • 62. 62 Situation Report The “unique” American Box... “The Eternal Frontier” - An Ecological History of North America – Isolation: Both a Blessing and a Curse – Geographic Isolation – a temperate zone between oceans, ice cap and isthmus – Biological Isolation – native vs. invasive species – flora, fauna and human – Political Isolation – freedom to start over – greenfield approach Manifest Destiny – Westward Expansion – Geographic Enablers and Constraints - Rivers, Mountains, Deserts – Conestoga Wagons and the Transcontinental Railroad – Pony Express vs. the telegraph – Cowboys and Immigrants – a “grass is greener” mentality • Local Government Topologies – Distance to the County Seat – 200+ years ago – Eastern seaboard – one day's walk – 100+ years ago – Western Expansion – one day's ride (horse or buggy) – Today – almost irrelevant! • Human Scale vs Global Scale in the US Local Government – Digital Infrastructure mapped to archaic Physical Infrastructure – Unsustainable (resource consumption) and non-competitive (world economy) Geographical and Political Evolution of Local Government Structures
  • 63. 63 Situation Report Our Local Government Box...2007 Census of Governments “Real-world problems may not respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper # of Local Governments by County (darker is denser) 89,47689,476
  • 64. 64 Situation Report Our Future Boxes...Megapolitan America “This is an extraordinary book. It completely and--in my largely lay judgment--correctly reorients our thinking about where our cities and communities are going both physically and in terms of actual living. What an extraordinary contribution to our thinking on these issues. This should be required reading--and I rarely say that--for every governor, mayor, legislator, city council member, Chamber of Commerce member, and, indeed, citizen!” --Michael K. Young, President, University of Washington  USA population projected to be 400 million by 2040  23 megapolitan areas  dominate the nation's economy by 2050  18 percent of the contiguous 48 states' land base  more densely settled than Europe as a whole  Common characteristics  Economic  Landscape  Social  Cultural  Will change how America plans... Map source: www.america2050.org
  • 65. 65 Situation Report 50% of the US population lives in 146 counties... “Real-world problems may not respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper http://www.businessinsider.com/half-of-the-united-states-lives-in-these-counties-2013-9 (Data: US Census Bureau)
  • 66. 66 Situation Report Boxed in: States can hold cities back...budget dependence... “Real-world problems may not respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper http://nextcity.org/daily/entry/state-control-city-tax-spend-fiscal-growth
  • 67. 67 No plans...No blueprints...No architecture...a maintenance nightmare! • 160 rooms • 2 ballrooms • 40 bedrooms • 6 kitchens • 2 basements • 47 fireplaces • 17 chimneys • 38 years • $5.5M • 1257 windows • 467 doors • 52 skylights • 40 staircases • 367 steps Staircase to Ceiling Circular Staircase Situation Report The Box we have built...
  • 68. 68 Situation Report Current Trends: Information Technology – IBM CAMSS
  • 69. 69 Situation Report Challenges to Service Delivery ● Physical Infrastructure ● 2009 ASCE: Grade of “D” ● $157 Billion/yr needed to 2020 ● $3.1 Trillion in lost productivity – 3.5M jobs ● Digital Infrastructure ● The World Economic Forum ranked the US 35th out of 148 countries in Internet bandwidth ● 150Mbps for $130/month - Verizon FiOS in NYC ● Elsewhere in world - $50-$77/month ● Underfunded Pensions ● Cities face $217 Billion gap (61 over 500K) ● States face $1.38 Trillion Shortfall ● “The Charitable-Industrial Complex” ● Peter Buffett OpEd NYTimes
  • 70. 70 Situation Report The Great Regression The Great Regression - http://www.cnbc.com/id/44876150 Danger to our physical and economic well-being 2009 I-5 Skagit River bridge in WA – 3 injured 2007 I-35W bridge in Minneapolis - 13 dead and 145 injured Surface Transportation - $752 Billion by 2020 25% of bridges are structurally deficient or obsolete 4,000 dams are in need of repair Port of LA - 39K truck trips daily due to insufficient freight rail Electricity - $107 Billion by 2020 Windstorm – 3.8M people in Mid-Atlantic states - 2012 Equipment – 5M people in SoCal and AZ - 2011 Cold weather – 1M people in Texas - 2011 Water - $84 Billion by 2020 Ports and Waterways - $34 Billion by 2020
  • 71. 71 Situation Report Current State of Digital Affairs... “Keeping the lights on” or “putting out fires,” whatever tends to dominate the CIO’s work schedule. NASCIO CIO survey: 33% say they spend 90% of time keeping the lights on. 40+% say they spend 75% of time on maintenance 50% say they spend 25% of time or less on “innovation” 30 percent said they spend just 5 % or less of time on “innovation” http://www.govtech.com/management/7-Ways-to-Innovate-Government-IT.html
  • 72. 72 Agenda ● Historical Perspectives ● 21st Century Challenges ● Governance SitRep ● Enthralled by the Immediate ● Going Forward...
  • 73. 73 Going forward “The best way to predict the future is to create/invent it.” » – Moliere/Kay “Gentlemen, we have run out of money. Now we have to think.” – Winston Churchill “You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.” » – R. Buckminster Fuller
  • 74. 74 Going Forward An awakening? “You can't handle the truth!” “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful people can change the world. Indeed, it's the only thing that ever has...” - Margaret Mead
  • 75. 75 Going Forward Two inter-related concepts Regional Government Platform: Regional clouds for operational systems Open-source IT infrastructure and applications Data is created every second of every minute of every hour; we now create 2.5 quintillion bytes of data per year. That is 2,500,000,000,000,000,000 bits of information. http://www.businessofgovernment.org/sites/default/files/Realizing the Promise of Big Data.pdf Cognitive Digital Democracy: Gaming, Simulation, Modeling (off-shift) XMILE: OASIS Standard for System Dynamics
  • 76. 76 Going Forward Cognitive Digital Democracy: Trust issues... http://insights-on-business.com/government/does-more-open-equate-to-greater-trust-in-government-not-necessarily General Trust vs Trust in Government
  • 77. 77 Going Forward Cognitive Digital Democracy: Open Data and Trust in Government http://insights-on-business.com/government/does-more-open-equate-to-greater-trust-in-government-not-necessarily
  • 78. 78 Going Forward Lessons from the crowdsourced law reform in Finland 1) People participate in a constructive way 2) The crowd is not delusional about potential impact on the law 3) Crowdsourcing creates learning moments 4) Crowdsourcing as knowledge search 5) The crowd is smart 6) Minority voices were not lost http://www.businessofgovernment.org/sites/default/files/Realizing the Promise of Big Data.pdf
  • 80. 80 Going Forward New Architecture for Smart Cities: Dr. Rick Robinson http://theurbantechnologist.com/2012/09/26/the-new-architecture-of-smart-cities/
  • 81. 81 Going Forward Enthralled by the immediate “...we fail to see the systemic issues because we define urgency by what is immediate. We are victims of a self-reinforcing crisis of perception – a crisis of our own making. If it persists, we doom ourselves to continued passivity. Only catastrophe will compel action, which, given the growing social divide that distributes problems like global warming unevenly between rich and poor, is likely to manifest as social and political disruption – not unlike what we are already seeing around the world. ...nothing short of a profound shift in the Western, materialistic worldview is likely to dislodge this crisis of perception.” - Peter M. Senge MIT Professor of Leadership
  • 82. 82 Going Forward ”Takin' on the jellies...you got serious thrill issues, dude!” The Digital Druid's recommendation / challenge: Build a cross-discipline, multi-semester course for Smarter Cities • Business Computer Science and Engineering Public Policy Environment / Urban Planning / Architecture http://facultybio.haas.berkeley.edu/faculty-list/darwin-solomon
  • 83. 83 Going Forward Digital Intelligence Data that’s coming Customer records Transactional systems Predictive models Institutional expertise Operational systems News Events Geospatial Weather Social media Internet of Things Sensory data Images Video Data outside the firewall Data you possess ++ Structured and active Unstructured and dark Understand Reason Learn Data > Information > Knowledge > Wisdom
  • 84. 84 Going Forward Cognitive Computing Think of all that has been accomplished using only a fraction of the available data Unlock the possibilities. What answers lie in the 88% that is dark?1 By the year 2020, about 1.7 MB of new information will be created every second, for every human being on the planet.2 1 IBM Research 2 “Big Data: 20 Mind-boggling Facts Everyone Must Read,” Forbes, Sept. 30, 2015
  • 85. 85 Going Forward Cognitive Computing Cognitive systems interact with humans naturally to interpret data, learning from virtually every interaction and proposing new possibilities through probabilistic reasoning. Programmable computing responds to requests and makes determinations, analyzing data according to predefined parameters.
  • 86. 86 Going Forward Cognitive Computing “IBM’s Watson is already being used to apply cognitive computing in a wide range of industries and technologies, from education to banking to winemaking to urban planning, and so much more.” - Fast Company “Cognitive everything—by 2018, over 50 percent of developer teams will embed cognitive services in their apps (versus 1 percent today), providing U.S. enterprises with over USD$60 billion in annual savings in 2020.” - IDC “We wanted it to be more personal and intuitive with natural language…. the results change dramatically as more questions are asked. And customers can ask questions which would not be possible with filters.” - The North Face http://www.fastcompany.com/3055148/ibm-under-armour-team-up-to-bring-cognitive-computing-to-fitness-apps   https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=259850 http://www.theretailbulletin.com/news/artificial_intelligence_is_proving_popular_than_with_north_face_customers_18-01-16/
  • 87. 87 Going Forward Cognitive Computing 50%say available data limits confidence in strategic decisions 95% plan to invest in cognitive Healthcare believe they can’t deliver on consumer expectations 94% plan to invest in cognitive Retail 60% 30%say the quality of data is insufficient for business model innovation 98% plan to invest in cognitive Insurance http://public.dhe.ibm.com/common/ssi/ecm/gb/en/gbe03731usen/GBE03731USEN.PDF http://public.dhe.ibm.com/common/ssi/ecm/gb/en/gbe03689usen/GBE03689USEN.PDF http://www-01.ibm.com/common/ssi/cgi-bin/ssialias?subtype=XB&infotype=PM&htmlfid=GBE03710USEN&attachment=GBE03710USEN.PDF Gaps in organizational abilities
  • 88. 88 Going Forward ”The Savannah Theory of Happiness...” https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/03/18/why-smart-people-are-better-off-with-fewer-friends/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26847844 “When smart people spend more time with their friends, it makes them less happy.”
  • 89. 89 Going Forward Seventh Generation...the Great Law of the Iroquois Time is linear...