Keynote presentation at first annual "Building a Smarter LA" conference". TeamSixThirty put together a great agenda on big data and analytics for Smarter Cities.
Enthralled by the immediate v5.0 - building a smarter la - team sixthirty - 25mar2016
1. Team SixThirty Conference
Building a Smarter Los Angeles – 25 March 2016
Mark Dixon – Executive Architect – Smarter Cities Solutions - IBM Analytics
platypus0@us.ibm.com / markdixon25@gmail.com
Enthralled by the Immediate
Why humans have not adopted Smarter Cities technologies faster
A Biological Perspective
2. 2
Disclaimer
The ideas and assertions presented herein are mine and mine
alone. They should not be construed to be the opinions of the
organization by whom I am employed.
I have attempted, in good faith, to perform due diligence in
“fact-checking” all relevant information provided in this
presentation.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but not their own facts.”
3. 3
Themes
“Every great architect is -- necessarily -- a great poet. He must be a great
original interpreter of his time, his day, his age.”
“The architect must be a prophet . . . if he can't see at least ten years ahead,
then don’t call him an architect.”
– Frank Lloyd Wright
“The interest of the man must be connected with the constitutional rights of
the place...But what is government itself, but the greatest of all reflection on
human nature? If men were angels, no government would be necessary.
– James Madison
“Humanity is a biological species in a biological world...we are exquisitely
well adapted to live on this particular planet. Although exalted in many ways,
we remain an animal species of the global fauna.”
– Edward O. Wilson
7. 7
Historical Perspectives
More recent and esoteric works...
3d-printers – replication
2000
First description of cyberspace
2003
Virtual collaboration and avatars
1991
10. 10
21st
Century Challenges
Sidebar: Context
“ 'What the hell is a millisecond?'...
Light in a vacuum travels at 186 miles a millisecond...Physics is physics”.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/06/magazine/flash-boys-michael-lewis.html
How long did it take George Washington to find out he had been elected POTUS?
Now
.8
seconds
Then
8
days
15. 15
Historical Perspectives
The Ancient Greek Perspective...
“Those who cannot remember [understand]
the past are condemned to repeat it.”
» - George Santayana
1974
Our Past is laid
out before us...
...and our Future
is rushing up
from behind.
16. 16
Historical Perspectives
A view from Harvard and MIT
“We have created a Star Wars civilization, with Stone Age
emotions, medieval institutions, and god-like
technology...We are terribly confused by the mere fact of our
existence, and a danger to ourselves and to the rest of life.”
•
» – Edward O. Wilson
“...it appears that much of the preparation nature has
invested in us...is failing us. Our neuroanatomy is tuned
to respond to sudden, dramatic changes in our
environment...We focus on immediate needs and
problems, and are trapped by the illusion that what is
most tangible is most real. We’ve been conditioned for
thousands of years to identify with our family, our tribe,
and our local social structures. A future that asks us to
overcome this conditioning...looks alien indeed."
» – Peter M. Senge
28. 28
21st
Century Challenges
Human Migration Timeline
Image source: http://www.utexas.edu/features/2007/ancestry/graphics/ancestry5_medium.jpg
Pre-Humans – 2,000,000 years ago
Archaic Humans – 500,000 years ago
200,000 yrs ago 100,000 yrs ago Present
Anatomically
Modern
Humans
Behaviorally
Modern
Humans
50,000 yrs ago
Settlements
Agriculture
Cities
30. 30
21st
Century Challenges
Homo Sapiens Sapiens: The ultimate invasive species?
"I think computer
viruses should count
as life. I think it says
something about
human nature that the
only form of life we
have created so far is
purely destructive.
We've created life in
our own image."
- Stephen
Hawking
Man is the most
insane species. We
worship an invisible
God and slaughter a
visible Nature
without realizing that
this Nature is the
invisible God we
worship.
- Hubert
Reeves
33. 33
21st
Century Challenges
The roots of Climate Change Science are almost 200 years old
Joseph Fourier
(heat analytics)
Circa early-1800s
John Tyndall
(infrared radiation/air)
Circa mid-1800s
Svante Arrhenius
(greenhouse effect)
Circa late-1800s
this is cutting-edge 19th century science that we’re now refining.”
“...this is cutting-edge 19th century science that we’re now refining.”
- Rear Admiral David W. Titley (Ret.)
Former Oceanographer and Navigator of the US Navy
34. 34
21st
Century Challenges
Climate Change
"Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide"
J. Hansen, D. Johnson, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, P. Lee, D. Rind, and G.
Russell, Science, vol. 213, 1981, pp. 957-966.
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh and Rein Haarsma
Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI) April 2012
37. 37
Situation Report
The only Box we have...
Source: National Geographic Society – “State of the Earth: 2010”
There are
now about
7 Billion
people on
our planet...
“The future is already here… It is just not evenly distributed.” – Gibbons
38. 38
21st
Century Challenges
Sidebar: Science, Biomimicry and Philosophy
Physics Infrastructure
Chemistry
Biology
Platform
Software
ProcessLife
Digital Building BlocksNatural Building Blocks
Sapience Cognitive
Inorganic
Patterns
Organic
Patterns
Biological
Patterns
Social
Patterns
MoQ Building Blocks
Ethical
Patterns
http://www.moq.org/forum/mcwatt/anthony.html and http://www.quantonics.com/Anthony_McWatts_MoQ_Paper.html
40. 40
Enthralled by the Immediate
Dilbert said it on the internet, so it must be true...
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/109880240641/sciences-biggest-fail
...I’m on the side that says climate change, for example, is pretty much
what science says it is because the scientific consensus is high. But I
realize half of my fellow-citizens disagree, based on pattern recognition.”
“We humans operate on pattern recognition...
41. 41
Enthralled by the Immediate
Neuroanatomical Architecture
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23036719
http://phenomena.nationalgeographic.com/2014/01/22/let-us-take-a-walk-in-the-brain-my-cover-story-for-national-geographic/
42. 42
Enthralled by the Immediate
Neuroanatomical architecture artifacts
Human Phobias - Irrational fears
Primitive Reflexes – your “lizard brain” at work
Cognitive Biases
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_phobias
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primitive_reflexes
43. 43
Enthralled by the Immediate
Biological Programming – Human Phobias
What is the #1 human phobia in the world?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dangerous_snakes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_mamba
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inland_taipan
44. 44
What is the #2 human phobia in the world?
Enthralled by the Immediate
Biological Programming – Human Phobias
https://www.livescience.com/13434-phobias-fears-acrophobia-heights-agoraphobia-arachnophobia.html
45. 45
Enthralled by the Immediate
Biological Programming – Human Phobias
What is the #3 human phobia in the world?
https://en.wikipedia.org/
"Cumulus Clouds over Yellow Prairie2" by Wing-Chi Poon. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.5 via Commons -
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cumulus_Clouds_over_Yellow_Prairie2.jpg#/media/File:Cumulus_Clouds_over_Yellow_Prairie2.jpg
46. 46
Enthralled by the Immediate
Biological Programming – Human Phobias
What is the #4 human phobia in the world?
US THEM
https://www.livescience.com/13434-phobias-fears-acrophobia-heights-agoraphobia-arachnophobia.html
47. 47
Enthralled by the Immediate
Biological Programming – Human Phobias
What is the #5 human phobia in the world?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear_of_falling
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visual_cliff
48. 48
Enthralled by the Immediate
Biological Programming – Human Phobias
What is the #6 human phobia in the world?
Do blank black screen next and kill all the lights...
49. 49
Enthralled by the Immediate
Biological Programming – Primitive Reflexes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moro_reflex
https://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/ency/images/ency/fullsize/17269.jpg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_lAFst43TE
The Moro Reflex – birth to 3-6 months
50. 50
Enthralled by the Immediate
Biological Programming – Primitive Reflexes
Palmar Grasp Reflex – 16 weeks (in utero) to 6 months
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primitive_reflexes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palmar_grasp_reflex
http://originsofmotherhood.com/images/Got_You_Daddy.jpg
51. 51
Enthralled by the Immediate
Biological Programming – Primitive Reflexes
Hypnic Jerk Reflex – lifetime
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primitive_reflexes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypnic_jerk
http://www.knowledge.info/sites/default/files/images/1/hypnic-Jerk.jpg
53. 53
Enthralled by the Immediate
Biological Programming – Cognitive Biases
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_bias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases
• A systematic pattern of deviation from the norm or rationality in judgment
• A "by-product" of human processing limitations
• Illogical inferences about other people and situations
• People create their own "subjective social reality" - dictate[s] behavior
• Lead to perceptual distortion, inaccurate judgment and illogical interpretation
However...
• Can lead to more effective actions in a given context
• Enable faster decisions – timeliness vs accuracy
54. 54
Enthralled by the Immediate
Biological Programming – Cognitive Biases
http://www.businessinsider.com/cognitive-biases-that-affect-decisions-2015-8
Anchoring Bias – over-reliance on the first piece of information
Blindspot Bias – failing to recognize your own cognitive biases
Confirmation Bias – information that confirms our preconceptions
Ostrich Effect – ignore dangerous or “negative” information
Pro-Innovation Bias – over-valuing usefulness/under-valuing limitations
55. 55
Enthralled by the Immediate
Biological Programming – Cognitive Biases – Rock, Paper, Scissors
http://mentalfloss.com/us/go/77260
“...most humans have a tendency to make moves that are
irrational, unconscious, and to some degree, predictable.”
56. 56
Enthralled by the Immediate
Biological Programming – Dunbar's Number
Dunbar's number is a suggested cognitive limit to the number of people with whom one can
maintain stable social relationships. These are relationships in which an individual knows
who each person is and how each person relates to every other person. Numbers larger
than this generally require more restrictive rules, laws, and enforced norms to maintain a
stable, cohesive group.
●
Species-specific index of social group size (mean neocortical volume)
●
Correlation from non-human primates to predict human group size
●
Human "mean group size" of 148 (regression equation)
●
Large error measure (a 95% confidence interval of 100 to 230)
●
Hunter-gatherer groups
●
Small – bands – 30-50 people
●
Medium – groups – 100-200 people
●
Large – tribes – 500-2,500 people
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunbar's_number
57. 57
Enthralled by the Immediate
Biological Programming – Dunbar's Number – W.L. Gore
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W._L._Gore_and_Associates
●
Gore is a team-based, flat lattice organization that fosters personal initiative.
There are no traditional organizational charts, no chains of command, nor
predetermined channels of communication.
●
Gore is one of the 200 largest privately held U.S. companies
●
2014 was the 3rd consecutive year for World’s Best Multinational Workplaces
●
For the 18th consecutive year, Gore earned a position on the FORTUNE 100
Best Companies to Work For® list in 2015. Gore ranked 17th overall.
●
Gore has also been named one of the best workplaces in France, Germany,
Italy, Korea, Sweden, and the UK. And in 2013, for the first time, Gore was
named one of the best workplaces in China.
●
More than 35 million innovative Gore Medical Devices have been implanted,
saving and improving the quality of lives worldwide.
●
Gore has been granted more than 2,000 patents worldwide in a wide range of
fields
●
Virtually all of Gore's products are based on just one material, a versatile
polymer called ePTFE (expanded polytetrafluoroethylene)
●
$3 billion in annual sales and more than 10,000 associates worldwide, the
company is owned by members of the Gore family and associates. Gore
prefers this private ownership and believes this reinforces a key element of its
culture to “take a long term view” when assessing business situations.
10,000 associates / 50 locations = 200 per location
59. 59
Situation Report
The Box...
If you're thinking outside the box, you're still in the box!
- Jon Fullinwider
(Ex-CIO Los Angeles and San Diego Counties)
60. 60
Situation Report
Boxed In...
Historical trends return...
The good ol' days will
come back...
“Old Normal” “New Normal”
Government is challenged
to redefine itself to become
more efficient and cost
effective
“We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used to create them...” – Einstein
61. 61
Situation Report
Our Inefficient Box...up to $15 Trillion wasted annually
How to read the chart:
As an example, the Healthcare
system‘s value is $4,270B. It carries
an estimated inefficiency of 42%. From
that level of 42% inefficiency,
economists estimate that ~34% can be
eliminated (= 34% x 42%).
We now have the capabilities to
manage a system-of-systems
planet...
Source: IBM economists survey 2009; n= 480 (*Estimate) – Chart shows “systems”, not “industries”.
System inefficiency as % of total
economic value
Improvementpotentialas
%ofsysteminefficiency
Analysis of inefficiencies in the
...of which $4 Trillion could be eliminated*...
System-of-
systems
$54 Trillion
100% of WW 2008
GDP
Improvement
potential
$4 Trillion
7% of WW 2008
GDP
Inefficiencies
$15 Trillion
28% of WW 2008
GDP
Global economic value of:
62. 62
Situation Report
The “unique” American Box...
“The Eternal Frontier” - An Ecological History of North America
– Isolation: Both a Blessing and a Curse
– Geographic Isolation – a temperate zone between oceans, ice cap and isthmus
– Biological Isolation – native vs. invasive species – flora, fauna and human
– Political Isolation – freedom to start over – greenfield approach
Manifest Destiny – Westward Expansion
– Geographic Enablers and Constraints - Rivers, Mountains, Deserts
– Conestoga Wagons and the Transcontinental Railroad
– Pony Express vs. the telegraph
– Cowboys and Immigrants – a “grass is greener” mentality
• Local Government Topologies – Distance to the County Seat
– 200+ years ago – Eastern seaboard – one day's walk
– 100+ years ago – Western Expansion – one day's ride (horse or buggy)
– Today – almost irrelevant!
• Human Scale vs Global Scale in the US Local Government
– Digital Infrastructure mapped to archaic Physical Infrastructure
– Unsustainable (resource consumption) and non-competitive (world economy)
Geographical and Political Evolution of Local Government Structures
63. 63
Situation Report
Our Local Government Box...2007 Census of Governments
“Real-world problems may not respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper
# of Local Governments by County (darker is denser)
89,47689,476
64. 64
Situation Report
Our Future Boxes...Megapolitan America
“This is an extraordinary book. It completely and--in my largely lay judgment--correctly reorients our thinking about where
our cities and communities are going both physically and in terms of actual living. What an extraordinary contribution to our
thinking on these issues. This should be required reading--and I rarely say that--for every governor, mayor, legislator, city
council member, Chamber of Commerce member, and, indeed, citizen!”
--Michael K. Young, President, University of Washington
USA population projected to be 400 million by 2040
23 megapolitan areas
dominate the nation's economy by 2050
18 percent of the contiguous 48 states' land base
more densely settled than Europe as a whole
Common characteristics
Economic
Landscape
Social
Cultural
Will change how America plans...
Map source: www.america2050.org
65. 65
Situation Report
50% of the US population lives in 146 counties...
“Real-world problems may not respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper
http://www.businessinsider.com/half-of-the-united-states-lives-in-these-counties-2013-9 (Data: US Census Bureau)
66. 66
Situation Report
Boxed in: States can hold cities back...budget dependence...
“Real-world problems may not respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper
http://nextcity.org/daily/entry/state-control-city-tax-spend-fiscal-growth
67. 67
No plans...No blueprints...No architecture...a maintenance nightmare!
• 160 rooms
• 2 ballrooms
• 40 bedrooms
• 6 kitchens
• 2 basements
• 47 fireplaces
• 17 chimneys
• 38 years
• $5.5M
• 1257 windows
• 467 doors
• 52 skylights
• 40 staircases
• 367 steps
Staircase to Ceiling
Circular Staircase
Situation Report
The Box we have built...
69. 69
Situation Report
Challenges to Service Delivery
●
Physical Infrastructure
●
2009 ASCE: Grade of “D”
●
$157 Billion/yr needed to 2020
●
$3.1 Trillion in lost productivity – 3.5M jobs
●
Digital Infrastructure
●
The World Economic Forum ranked the US
35th out of 148 countries in Internet bandwidth
●
150Mbps for $130/month - Verizon FiOS in NYC
●
Elsewhere in world - $50-$77/month
●
Underfunded Pensions
●
Cities face $217 Billion gap (61 over 500K)
●
States face $1.38 Trillion Shortfall
●
“The Charitable-Industrial Complex”
●
Peter Buffett OpEd NYTimes
70. 70
Situation Report
The Great Regression
The Great Regression - http://www.cnbc.com/id/44876150
Danger to our physical and economic well-being
2009 I-5 Skagit River bridge in WA – 3 injured
2007 I-35W bridge in Minneapolis - 13 dead and 145 injured
Surface Transportation - $752 Billion by 2020
25% of bridges are structurally deficient or obsolete
4,000 dams are in need of repair
Port of LA - 39K truck trips daily due to insufficient freight rail
Electricity - $107 Billion by 2020
Windstorm – 3.8M people in Mid-Atlantic states - 2012
Equipment – 5M people in SoCal and AZ - 2011
Cold weather – 1M people in Texas - 2011
Water - $84 Billion by 2020
Ports and Waterways - $34 Billion by 2020
71. 71
Situation Report
Current State of Digital Affairs...
“Keeping the lights on” or “putting out fires,” whatever tends to dominate
the CIO’s work schedule.
NASCIO CIO survey:
33% say they spend 90% of time keeping the lights on.
40+% say they spend 75% of time on maintenance
50% say they spend 25% of time or less on “innovation”
30 percent said they spend just 5 % or less of time on “innovation”
http://www.govtech.com/management/7-Ways-to-Innovate-Government-IT.html
73. 73
Going forward
“The best way to predict the future is to create/invent it.”
» – Moliere/Kay
“Gentlemen, we have run out of money. Now we have to think.”
– Winston Churchill
“You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change
something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.”
» – R. Buckminster Fuller
74. 74
Going Forward
An awakening?
“You can't handle the truth!”
“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful people can change the
world. Indeed, it's the only thing that ever has...”
- Margaret Mead
75. 75
Going Forward
Two inter-related concepts
Regional Government Platform:
Regional clouds for operational systems
Open-source IT infrastructure and applications
Data is created every second of every minute of every hour; we now create 2.5 quintillion bytes of
data per year. That is 2,500,000,000,000,000,000 bits of information.
http://www.businessofgovernment.org/sites/default/files/Realizing the Promise of Big Data.pdf
Cognitive Digital Democracy:
Gaming, Simulation, Modeling (off-shift)
XMILE: OASIS Standard for System Dynamics
76. 76
Going Forward
Cognitive Digital Democracy: Trust issues...
http://insights-on-business.com/government/does-more-open-equate-to-greater-trust-in-government-not-necessarily
General Trust vs Trust in Government
77. 77
Going Forward
Cognitive Digital Democracy: Open Data and Trust in Government
http://insights-on-business.com/government/does-more-open-equate-to-greater-trust-in-government-not-necessarily
78. 78
Going Forward
Lessons from the crowdsourced law reform in Finland
1) People participate in a constructive way
2) The crowd is not delusional about potential impact on the law
3) Crowdsourcing creates learning moments
4) Crowdsourcing as knowledge search
5) The crowd is smart
6) Minority voices were not lost
http://www.businessofgovernment.org/sites/default/files/Realizing the Promise of Big Data.pdf
80. 80
Going Forward
New Architecture for Smart Cities: Dr. Rick Robinson
http://theurbantechnologist.com/2012/09/26/the-new-architecture-of-smart-cities/
81. 81
Going Forward
Enthralled by the immediate
“...we fail to see the systemic issues because we define urgency by
what is immediate. We are victims of a self-reinforcing crisis of
perception – a crisis of our own making. If it persists, we doom
ourselves to continued passivity.
Only catastrophe will compel action, which, given the growing social
divide that distributes problems like global warming unevenly
between rich and poor, is likely to manifest as social and political
disruption – not unlike what we are already seeing around the
world.
...nothing short of a profound shift in the Western, materialistic
worldview is likely to dislodge this crisis of perception.”
- Peter M. Senge
MIT Professor of Leadership
82. 82
Going Forward
”Takin' on the jellies...you got serious thrill issues, dude!”
The Digital Druid's recommendation / challenge:
Build a cross-discipline, multi-semester course for Smarter Cities
•
Business
Computer Science and Engineering
Public Policy
Environment / Urban Planning / Architecture
http://facultybio.haas.berkeley.edu/faculty-list/darwin-solomon
83. 83
Going Forward
Digital Intelligence
Data that’s
coming
Customer records
Transactional systems
Predictive models
Institutional expertise
Operational systems
News
Events
Geospatial
Weather
Social media
Internet of Things
Sensory data
Images
Video
Data outside
the firewall
Data you
possess ++
Structured and active Unstructured and dark
Understand Reason Learn
Data > Information > Knowledge > Wisdom
84. 84
Going Forward
Cognitive Computing
Think of all that has been
accomplished using only
a fraction of the
available data
Unlock the
possibilities.
What answers
lie in the 88%
that is dark?1
By the year 2020, about
1.7 MB of new information
will be created every second,
for every human being on
the planet.2
1 IBM Research
2 “Big Data: 20 Mind-boggling Facts Everyone Must Read,” Forbes, Sept. 30, 2015
85. 85
Going Forward
Cognitive Computing
Cognitive
systems
interact with humans
naturally to interpret data,
learning from virtually every
interaction and proposing
new possibilities through
probabilistic reasoning.
Programmable
computing
responds to requests and
makes determinations,
analyzing data according
to predefined parameters.
86. 86
Going Forward
Cognitive Computing
“IBM’s Watson is already being used to apply cognitive computing in a wide
range of industries and technologies, from education to banking to
winemaking to urban planning, and so much more.” - Fast Company
“Cognitive everything—by 2018, over 50 percent of developer teams will
embed cognitive services in their apps (versus 1 percent today), providing
U.S. enterprises with over USD$60 billion in annual savings in 2020.” - IDC
“We wanted it to be more personal and intuitive with natural language…. the
results change dramatically as more questions are asked. And customers
can ask questions which would not be possible with filters.” - The North Face
http://www.fastcompany.com/3055148/ibm-under-armour-team-up-to-bring-cognitive-computing-to-fitness-apps
https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=259850
http://www.theretailbulletin.com/news/artificial_intelligence_is_proving_popular_than_with_north_face_customers_18-01-16/
87. 87
Going Forward
Cognitive Computing
50%say available data limits
confidence in strategic
decisions
95%
plan to invest in cognitive
Healthcare
believe they can’t
deliver on consumer
expectations
94%
plan to invest in cognitive
Retail
60% 30%say the quality of data is
insufficient for business
model innovation
98%
plan to invest in cognitive
Insurance
http://public.dhe.ibm.com/common/ssi/ecm/gb/en/gbe03731usen/GBE03731USEN.PDF
http://public.dhe.ibm.com/common/ssi/ecm/gb/en/gbe03689usen/GBE03689USEN.PDF
http://www-01.ibm.com/common/ssi/cgi-bin/ssialias?subtype=XB&infotype=PM&htmlfid=GBE03710USEN&attachment=GBE03710USEN.PDF
Gaps in organizational abilities
88. 88
Going Forward
”The Savannah Theory of Happiness...”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/03/18/why-smart-people-are-better-off-with-fewer-friends/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26847844
“When smart people spend more time with their friends, it makes them less happy.”