29. However, we still have over 7 million fewer jobs than we did in December 2007.
30. As with GDP, employment recovery is following contour of the milder 1991 and 2001 recessions, rather than the more severe 1975 and 1982 episodes. 7
34. Okun’s Law: Need GDP to grow 2 percent faster than long-run potential to reduce unemployment rate by 1 percentage point8
35.
36. But impact of commodity prices diminishes as goods move up production chain towards retail level, because labor market slack is keeping wages down.
72. Following the 1982 recession, real GDP grew 7.7 percent (Q4 over Q4) in 1983, and 5.6 percent in 1984. Following the 1975 recession, economy grew 5.0 percent in 1977 and 6.7 percent in 1978.
74. The virtuous cycle: as businesses create more jobs and expand capacity, consumption and investment demand will accelerate…which will businesses to create more jobs and further expand capacity.
75. Will surge in PCE in Q4 trigger strong hiring in 2011?
76. Durable goods catch-up: should promote sharp acceleration of consumer durables, business equipment and (eventually) residential investment.