(E1915) State Of Industry


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  • (E1915) State Of Industry

    1. 1. January 2009 e1915 R2/09
    2. 2. State of the Industry <ul><li>Global Labor Market Trends </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Regional Highlights </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Legislative Environment </li></ul></ul><ul><li>U.S. Labor Update </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Employment Summary </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Labor Supply and Demand </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>HR Spotlight </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Global Staffing Market </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Global Competitive Position </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Industry Overview </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Staffing Market Outlook/Trends </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Global Economic Situation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic Performance Global/ Regional </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Projected Economic Growth </li></ul></ul>
    3. 3. Global Economic Situation
    4. 4. <ul><li>Americas – U.S. recession could be the worst since the 1940’s </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>U.S. recession which began Dec ’07 continues to deepen; economy expected to contract through Q2’09 before slowly recovering; 2009 GDP forecast at -2.5% </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Falling U.S. demand will pull Canada’s economy down -1.5% in 2009; Stronger U.S. dollar will help stimulate exports by mid-09 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Economic growth in Latin American expected to fall sharply as foreign investment and exports continue to slow; Mexico’s economy hardest hit at -2.3% in ’09 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>EMEA – Global recession, falling oil prices severely impacting the region </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Deep and protracted recession expected across all major markets (U.K, Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands); Modest recovery forecast for 2010 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Central/Eastern European economic growth will nearly stagnate to just 0.5% in 2009 after averaging 5.3% during the past three years </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Plunging oil prices and tighter credit curbing 2009 growth and investment outlook for Russia and the Middle East </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>APAC – Export-based economy leaves region vulnerable to falling global demand </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Asia-Pacific economy forecast to expand just 1.8% in 2009 (6.1% in ‘07) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Japan’s economy fell into recession Q3’08; Recovery not expected before H2’09 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>China’s export market declined YOY for the first time in nearly a decade; ‘09 growth outlook falls to 6.3% </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>India’s service-driven economy will moderate but remain relatively stable despite global slowdown; 2009 growth rate estimated at 4.9% </li></ul></ul></ul>Economic Performance Global/Regional Sources: IHS Global Insights - Economic Outlook and Country Intelligence Reports (Oct 2008 - Jan 2009); “EU see recession being deep and long-lasting” Associated Press 1/18/09. Ongoing financial market turmoil continues to push the economy deeper into recession. Businesses and consumers are retrenching as falling confidence feeds the cycle of lower spending, tighter credit and fewer jobs. “ While most of the weakness has so far been concentrated in advanced economies, the emerging markets and developing economies are now being dragged down as well.” World Economic Outlook– Global Insights (1/26/09)
    5. 5. Projected Economic Growth Sources: IHS Global Insights - Economic Outlook and Country Intelligence Reports (Oct 2008 - Jan 2009); 2010 GDP growth estimate as of 12/09. Governments around the world have announced massive stimulus plans, injected billions into troubled financial institutions and slashed lending rates all aimed at restoring confidence and spending. While the impacts of these actions are expected to help the global economy regain footing later in the year, near-term growth projections continue to decline. World Economic Growth Real GDP (% Change) “ Despite its current weakness, we expect the world economy to stabilize during the second half of 2009…and shift into a higher gear by mid-2010.” World Economic Outlook - Global Insights (1/26/09)
    6. 6. Global Labor Market Trends
    7. 7. Labor Market Trends – Regional Highlights Sources: IHS Global Insights - Economic Outlook and Country Intelligence Reports (Oct 2008 - Jan 2009); Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1/09; Statistics Canada (1/09); Economic conditions snapshot, McKinsey Global Survey (12/08) <ul><li>Americas Region </li></ul><ul><ul><li>United States </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Unemployment climbed from 4.9% to the current 16-year high of 7.2% in the past year </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Joblessness reaching nearly every industry sector and worker category; healthcare continues creating jobs </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>3.7% unemployment rate among college educated workers the highest since tracking began in 1992 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Unemployment forecast to reach 9% during 2009 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Canada </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Loss of 34,000 jobs in December pushes unemployment rate to 6.6% but remains low by historic standards; 8% forecast by 2010 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Job creation in late 2008 shifting toward part-time, public sector; employment set to decline 0.2% in ’09 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Population growth expected to fall below 1% by 2010 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mexico </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Formal employment expected to decline 1.2% in ‘09 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>US recession coupled with tighter immigration controls expected to increase unemployment </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Brazil </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Unemployment reached a record low of 6.8% in Dec ‘08, employers added 734,000 jobs in ’08, up 3.4% YOY </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>2009 labor markets will weaken given the economic outlook and high cost of formal employment </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Favorable demographic profile (6% over age 65 compared with over 12% in the U.S. ), but informal labor market still accounts for 40% of the economic output </li></ul></ul></ul>With the exception of the U.S., regional labor markets performed well throughout most of 2008, but will weaken as the global recession deepens. “ The share of executives saying their companies are planning to decrease the size of their workforces in the near term has risen from 35 percent to 44 percent in the past month.” Economic Conditions Snapshot, McKinsey Global Survey (12/08)
    8. 8. Labor Market Trends – Regional Highlights <ul><li>EMEA Region </li></ul><ul><ul><li>United Kingdom </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Employment fell just 26,000 in the Sept-Nov period, but losses masked by the surge in part-time employment </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Deep and prolonged recession now expected to push unemployment to 8.8% by 2010 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Historically pro-immigration policies being debated in response to deteriorating labor market </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>France </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Unemployment increasing at its fastest pace in 23 years; expected to reach 8.3% in 2009 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Job losses impacting goods and services industries; strength continues in construction, education and health care </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Germany </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Number of unemployed workers increased in Dec ‘08 for the first time in almost three years </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Unemployment is expected to grow from 7.8% in ‘08 to 8.9% by ‘10, well below the 11.7% peak seen in ‘05 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Labor markets helped by growing ties with emerging markets </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Netherlands </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Unemployment edged up during Q4’08, ending the year at just 3.9%; wages grew at a 5-year high of 3.3% in 2008 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Labor market expected to weaken in 2009, but outperform other large EMEA markets </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Government stimulus package includes payroll subsidies to help reduce employment, sustain spending </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Russia </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Rapidly declining oil prices have negatively impacted business confidence and labor markets </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Unemployment grew 20% in Q4’08; Cutbacks extend beyond manufacturing into service-based industries </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Despite weaker near-term demand, shrinking/aging population trends will lead to labor shortages; governments considering incentives to increase birth rates </li></ul></ul></ul>Sources: IHS Global Insights - Economic Outlook and Country Intelligence Reports (Oct 2008 - Jan 2009); “Crisis rattles Russia’s labor markets”: Associated Press Worldstream (10/30/08); Tight lending conditions, continued financial market volatility and sharply lower global demand will cause European labor markets to weaken over the coming months.
    9. 9. Labor Market Trends – Regional Highlights Sources: IHS Global Insight Country Reports (Oct 2008-Jan 2009); “Employers in China have issues shedding workers”: Workforce Management (12/29/08); “Employment situation worsening in China”: Sunday Business Post (12/14/08); “India Inc hiring temporary employees to cut costs”: The Economic Times India (12/30/08) <ul><li>APAC Region </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Japan </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Recovery from ongoing recession not expected before H2’09; unemployment seen rising into 2010 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Increased labor market flexibility may actually deepen the downturn as employers layoff staff to reduce expenses </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Demographic shifts will cause the labor force to peak within the next few years – falling 33% by 2050 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>China </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>500,000 jobs lost in Q4’08; labor market weakness in export manufacturing and among college graduates </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>2008 labor laws making staff reductions more difficult, potentially slowing economic recovery </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Estimates suggest the economy must grow at 8% just to absorb the newly added working-age population </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>India </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Hiring trends shifting to high-skilled contract workers as a hedge against global recession </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Government hesitant to modify restrictive labor laws </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Projected skilled worker shortage of 30 million by 2015; talent gaps across healthcare, finance and retail </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Australia </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Employment growth slowed to end ‘08, but labor markets remain tight by historic standards; wages up 4.1% YOY </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Underemployment starting to impact the job market as full-time positions are being replaced by part-time </li></ul></ul></ul>A simultaneous slowing of demand across the U.S. and Europe is now impacting APAC’s labor markets.
    10. 10. Legislative Environment Japan: Government approved a bill to ban select “day labor” staffing practices and monitor safety conditions for temporary workers European Union: European Commission providing funds to EU member states to fight against illegal immigration Canada: Ontario introduced legislation designed to give temporary workers more rights United States: Incoming Obama administration expected to pursue several pro-worker legislative changes France: Effective Jan 2010, employers will no longer be permitted to force employees to retire at age 65 <ul><li>United Kingdom: </li></ul><ul><li>Britain’s opt-out to the EU 48 hour maximum work week being challenged </li></ul><ul><li>Efforts underway to delay a scheduled April ‘09 tax increase on temporary workers in certain industries </li></ul>China: Legal experts speculate economic slowdown may prompt government to loosen 2008 labor contract laws Korea: Seeking to double the length of time employers can use temporary employees before having to hire them permanently Malaysia: Banned hiring foreign workers in key industries w/employers forced to layoff foreign staff ahead of nationals to protect against downturn In response to deteriorating economic conditions, recent legislative activities are aimed at job preservation. Longer-term legislative actions remain focused on increasing labor market flexibility, attracting top talent and improving workers’ rights. Sources : “EU Governments to Receive European Commission Funds for Fight Against Illegal Immigration”, German Deputies Back Introduction of Minimum Wage in Several Sectors”, “Malaysian Government Bans Recruitment of Foreign Workers in Key Industries”: IHS Global Insight Country Intelligence (Oct 2008-Jan 2009); “More Labor for HR”: Workforce Management (1/19/09); Ontario announces legislation for temps; Staffing Industry Analysts (12/10/08); “UK’s opt-out from EU work directive is under threat”: The London times (11/6/08); “Ministers slammed for ‘tax on jobs’”: Financial Times (1/19/09); “Employers in China Have Issues Shedding Workers”: Workforce Management (12/29/08); “Job Contract of Temporary Workers to be Extended”: Korea Times (11/14/08); “Gov’t OK”s bill to ban dispatch of temp day workers”: Japan Economic Newswire (11/4/08); Monthly Legislative Update – Africa, the Middle East and Europe: Hewitt Associates (12/08) Germany: Introduced legislation that would make 6.5 million more workers (temporary and permanent) eligible for minimum wage
    11. 11. U.S. Labor Market
    12. 12. Employment Summary <ul><li>Deep Cutbacks Cap Off a Dismal 2008 Job Market </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>524,000 jobs lost in December - 12th consecutive decline </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>September’s financial market crisis represented a “tipping point” for labor markets: </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>1.9 of the 2.6 million jobs lost since September </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>At 7.2%, unemployment nearing a 16-year high and is impacting all industries/skill sets </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Underemployment a growing issue with the number of people working part-time due to economic reasons up 75% during the past year </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Job losses for 2008 ended nearly evenly split between the goods and services sectors </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>As a percentage, however, good-producing industries shrank 6% vs. just 1% for services </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Sustained job creation not likely before the end of 2009 </li></ul>Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (1/9/09), Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers (12/08) <ul><li>Significant price declines helped lift consumer confidence, but pessimism about the future economic outlook remains </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Consumer Sentiment at 60.1 in December, up from 55.3 in November, but well below the 75.5 recorded a year ago </li></ul></ul></ul>Monthly Change In Non-Farm Employment (000’s) “ The appeal of lower prices…has been largely offset by widespread uncertainty among consumers about their future job and income prospects.” Richard Curtain– Director, Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers – (12/08)
    13. 13. Labor Supply and Demand <ul><li>Sharp economic decline during the fourth quarter pushed unemployment over 11 million in December </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Current figures represent almost 3 unemployed workers for every online job listing </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Online job listings declined more than 500,000 during the month of December </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Steep reduction (-17% YOY) suggests recovery will remain elusive well into 2009 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Online job demand declined across nearly every occupational category </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Healthcare support and Arts/ Entertainment each posted modest YOY gains </li></ul></ul></ul>Sources: Help Wanted Online Data Series: The Conference Board (1/7/09); Bureau of Labor Statistics (1/9/09) Labor Supply vs. Labor Demand U.S. Seasonally Adjusted The gap between labor supply and demand continues to widen…
    14. 14. HR Spotlight Source: “Upgrading Talent” The McKinsey Quarterly (12/08); “Managing Recruiting During an Economic Downturn” ERE.net (10/20/08); “A leg up in down times” Workforce Management (1/19/09) <ul><li>While headcount reductions and hiring freezes are often necessary to help manage through economic downturns, companies should also be seizing the opportunity to upgrade and maximize their talent. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Selective recruiting during a down economy offers several advantages: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Less competition for talent as employers reduce recruiting budgets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increased ability to attract top talent from hard hit industry sectors (financial services, manufacturing, etc.) – including those that survived layoffs but are seeking greater stability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Weakened employment brand for competitors who fail to effectively manage layoff communications </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Headcount reductions offer an opportunity to examine and redesign jobs and career paths that: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Are more attractive to both internal and external candidates </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Offer top performers new challenges, greater responsibilities and room for advancement </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Take full advantage of the talent currently in place </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Resist cutting training and development programs. These programs increase productivity and support the development of future leaders. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Implementing a disciplined talent management strategy during down periods can help position your company for success when the economy recovers. </li></ul>Re-thinking Talent Management in a Down Economy
    15. 15. Global Staffing Market
    16. 16. Global Competitive Position * Privately held + Formerly Goodwill Group Note: Tempstaff-People Staff merger will create 2nd largest staffing company in Japan with approximately $2.4B USD in revenues (Source: 25th Service Industry Comprehensive Survey , Nikkei MJ, 7 Nov 2007). The merged entity will hold a 0.7% share of the global market. Japanese staffing market appears to be at the start of a consolidation phase. Note: Manpower includes $1.4B of revenue generated by franchise offices not included in MP Inc. consolidated sales. Global Competitive Position (based on 2007 Revenues) The global competitive landscape was transformed throughout 2008 as a result of several large acquisitions. The top 5 competitors represent just over one-fourth of the market, with Kelly ranked 4th globally. Acquisition activity during 2009 is expected to be more muted and targeted toward niche segments/markets in response to weaker economic conditions and tighter credit availability. Competitor Global Ranking 2007 Revenue ($B USD) 2007 Est. Market Share Adecco (SZ) 1 $28.9 8.7% Randstad/Vedior (NL) 2 $24.2 7.3% Manpower (US) 3 $21.9 6.6% Kelly (US) 4 $5.7 1.7% USG People (NL) 5 $5.3 1.6% Recruit/Staff Service (JP)* 6 $4.9 1.5% Hays (UK) 7 $4.6 1.4% Robert Half (US) 8 $4.6 1.4% Allegis (US)* 9 $4.4 1.3% Radia + (JP) 10 $3.5 1.0%
    17. 17. Industry Overview The global staffing market is estimated at $345B, with the top six markets representing nearly 80% of the total. The U.S. is the largest country while EMEA is the largest region. Commercial staffing represents more than 60% of global revenues, but growth is being outpaced by specialty staffing. Segment Distribution % of 2008 Global Market
    18. 18. Staffing Market Outlook <ul><li>Americas </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Q1’09 demand to remain weak, but the number of temporary employees expected to stabilize throughout ‘09 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Strongest sectors include healthcare and outsourcing /outplacement services </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>EMEA </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Sharpest regional declines expected in developed staffing markets (U.K., France, etc.) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Growth in 2009 will be limited to select emerging markets </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>APAC </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Japan’s temporary workforce will continue to decline due to falling exports </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>In emerging Asia, regional business mix shifting from permanent to temporary as hiring firms seek flexibility in response to a slowing economy </li></ul></ul></ul>Sources: IHS Global Insights - Economic Outlook and Country Intelligence Reports (Oct 2008 - Jan 2009); Staffing Indicator Report, BMO Capital Markets (1/5/09); European Staffing Report, Deutsche Bank (12/3/08); Staffing Industry Forecast, 2009 – The dark before the dawn (1/12/09); “Labor Forecast Predicts 21.2% decrease in demand for temporary workers in 2009 first quarter, representing eight consecutive quarter of declines” GlobeNewsrire (1/13/09); “National responses to a global crisis” Recruiter UK (1/21/09); “Japan 85,000 temporary workers to lose jobs due to economic crisis”, Thai Press Report (12/19/08); “India Inc hiring temporary employees to cut costs” The Economic Times India (12/30/08) Staffing industry performance is highly correlated with the general economy. The unexpectedly sharp fourth quarter downturn coupled with forecasts for outright contraction in the global economy during 2009 will weigh on the industry’s near-term outlook. The long-term industry outlook remains strong given the underlying demographic and labor market trends. “ Recruitment is a cyclical business. The global financial crisis and the resultant reduction in recruitment has hit agencies around the world” Recruiter (UK) – 1/21/09 “ temporary staffing represented an increasing number of total [U.S.] jobs lost, including nearly 25%...in the current recession. We believe this shows the industry’s role as a flexible labor supplier has become more apparent. “ BMO Capital Markets Staffing Indicator Report – 1/5/09
    19. 19. Staffing Market Trends Staffing firms must respond to changing demographic and legislative conditions, be capable of defining and delivering innovative client solutions and leverage new channels for finding and deploying talent in today’s marketplace. Trend Business Impact Kelly’s Response <ul><ul><li>Migration from Staffing Services to HR Solutions Provider </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Talent needs becoming more specialized and global in scope </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Increased need for customized solutions, new products </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Growing use of technology to provide the necessary visibility and management </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Global expansion of professional, technical, outsourcing and consulting services </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Full-range of workforce solutions (full-time, temporary, outsourced, IC) and delivery models </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Global Implementation Services group to design and execute custom client solutions </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Successful partnerships with leading technology solution providers </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Current and Projected Skills Shortages </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Increased need to identify/attract passive candidates </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Increased need for “borderless” recruiting methods/solutions </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Increased importance of offering workforce flexibility </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Targeted recruiting programs/channels (Mature/Retiree, Search Marketing, Social Networking, etc.) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Global mobility/cross-border recruiting capabilities </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>KellyConnect solution expanded to support home-based employment </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Evolving Legislative Environment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Liberalization of labor markets </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Greater protections for temporary workers </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Investment/expansion into emerging markets (China, UAE, Eastern Europe) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Industry association involvement </li></ul></ul></ul>