2. Contents
Linear trends show possible paths for quarterly
GDP
Q12012 growth a surprise while growth needs to be
higher to reach 7.5% annual growth
Relationship between IP and GDP suggests strong IP
may lead to high GDP growth
3. Linear trends show possible paths for
quarterly GDP
China: quarterly GDP growth track
8.4%
8.35%
8.25%
8.2%
8.15%
8.10%
8.0%
7.85%
7.8%
7.73%
7.6% 7.60%
7.4%
7.35% 7.35%
7.2%
7.0% 6.98%
6.8%
Jan-12 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Dec-12
g=8.2(IMF) g=7.8 g=7.5(gov target)
4. Q12012 growth a surprise while growth needs to
be higher to reach 7.5% annual growth
Annual growth at 8.2% (IMF)
YOYgrowth will have to improve over the next 3 quarters to
meet IMF forecast of 8.2% annual growth
Annual growth at 7.8%
Slower quarterly growth at above 7.3% will see annual
growth reach 7.8%
Annual growth at 7.5% (gov target)
Slower quarterly growth at above 7% will see annual
growth reach 7.5%. The current track of slowing will see
annual growth at around 7.3%.
5. IP and GDP relationship suggest strong
IP may lead to high GDP growth
IP growth has shown strength in the first quarter of
2011
The relationship between IP growth and GDP
growth suggest a possible development where for
GDP to reach a relatively low number, the IP
numbers have to be much lower than they have
been.
If production, demand and other indicators stay
strong, there is a good chance for GDP to end in
high territories
6. China: Industrial production growth
China: GDP growth VS Industrial Production growth
16.00
14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
2010 2011 2012 2013
GDP IP
