Is the Open Web the Platform for Tomorrow

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Joe Walker

Is ‘Web 3.0’ where we use something else instead?

Business Technology

The Case for the Open Web
Is web 3.0 where we give up and use something else?

© Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

So far, the web has won
the platform war.

© Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

Why?
© Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

3 Reasons:
Deployment, Openness, Lazy Text

Who decides if it carries
on winning?

© Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

What if there is only one
effective browser vendor?

© Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

Monopolies: Good / Bad?
Monopolies are a form of Absolute Power
(and that’s not good)

A mono-culture is easier
for the developers

A mono-culture is easier
for the developers
(but the goal is to be better for the users)

Plug-ins: Good / Bad?
A plugin is just a ‘browser’ in a browser

© Sitepen Inc. 2007. All Rights Reserved

100

3.0 Netscape Usage Share
4.0

75

4.5
2.0
50
4.8

5.0
25

6.0

1.0 7.0
0
‘93 ‘94 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08

If the Netscape developers were
not in the safety of a monopoly;

Would they have chosen
the risky rewrite path?

100

U5.0 M5.2 8.0
75
U4.0 M5.0 7.0
(U3) M4.5 6.0
M4.0 5.5
50 M3 5.0
M2.1 4.0
3.0
M2
25
2.0
1.5
1.0
0
‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08

6 years 6 years
1996 2002 2008

16 major releases of IE 2 major releases of IE?
Across 4 platforms Now only on Windows

IE got to 90% market
share in 2002

4 things the web needs to
carry on winning ...

Features
© Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

Reliability
© Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

Trust
© Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

Momentum
© Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

Signs of Disfunction

© Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

Signs of Disfunction

Zillions of toolkits are a sign that something is wrong.

If browsers were perfect we wouldn’t need Dojo or
DWR or any of the other toolkits

© Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

Signs of Disfunction

What do the toolkits do for us?
•Abstraction
•Bug ﬁxing
•Simpliﬁcation
•Harmonization

© Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

Signs of Disfunction

How do toolkits harm us?
•Downloading
•Integration

© Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

Browser Features

Browser Developer Todo List:
•Make ajax toolkits irrelevant

© Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

Browser Features

The down side of browser evolution
•Do new features break old features?
•It’s slow
•Ubiquity is vital

© Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

Browser Features

How far can we evolve without vendor support?
•Comet
•3D using VML / SVG / Canvas / etc
•Storage and ofﬂine

© Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

Reliability

Local or Global?
•Depending on small scale reliability can hurt
•Large scale reliability requires anticipation of failure
•Markup deﬁnes the Open Web through reliability

© Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

Reliability

The web has some great features borrowed from Unix
•Small, independent units
•Linked through debuggable text based protocols

It adds features from living things
•The ability to cope with failure
•That can adapt when the world changes

© Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

Trust

What do you worry about when using the web?
•Web worms
•Privacy invasion
•Data in transit
•Identity Theft
•Browser Security
•How to build something trustable

© Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

Trust

What do users need to build trust
•Lack of spelling mistakes
•Reliable patterns
•Principle of least astonishment
•Time

© Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

Trust

What does the web need?
•Content Restrictions
•An anti CSRF marker for cookies
•Sandboxing
•Less brittle models of building relationships
•SMASH, XIP, etc.

© Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

Momentum

What people know today deﬁnes
how they think about the future

© Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

Momentum

Web Standards:
•Not all have been transparent
•Working groups break down when the participants
don’t play ball
•Adding IQ to a large group reduces the IQ of the
group
•Working groups don’t test for ﬁtness

© Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

What if we don’t get the tools we need?

Toolkits
Flash
Gears

The Case for the Open Web
Questions?
© Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

Is the Open Web the Platform for Tomorrow

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Is the Open Web the Platform for Tomorrow

4. 3 Reasons: Deployment, Openness, Lazy Text

7. Monopolies: Good / Bad?

8. Monopolies: Good / Bad? Monopolies are a form of Absolute Power (and that’s not good)

9. A mono-culture is easier for the developers

10. A mono-culture is easier for the developers (but the goal is to be better for the users)

11. Plug-ins: Good / Bad?

12. Plug-ins: Good / Bad? A plugin is just a ‘browser’ in a browser

13. The History of the Web

20. 100 3.0 Netscape Usage Share 4.0 75 4.5 2.0 50 4.8 5.0 25 6.0 1.0 7.0 0 ‘93 ‘94 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08

21. If the Netscape developers were not in the safety of a monopoly; Would they have chosen the risky rewrite path?

22. 100 U5.0 M5.2 8.0 75 U4.0 M5.0 7.0 (U3) M4.5 6.0 M4.0 5.5 50 M3 5.0 M2.1 4.0 3.0 M2 25 2.0 1.5 1.0 0 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08

23. 100 U5.0 M5.2 8.0 75 U4.0 M5.0 7.0 (U3) M4.5 6.0 M4.0 5.5 50 M3 5.0 M2.1 4.0 3.0 M2 25 2.0 1.5 1.0 0 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08

24. 6 years 6 years 1996 2002 2008 16 major releases of IE 2 major releases of IE? Across 4 platforms Now only on Windows IE got to 90% market share in 2002

25. 4 things the web needs to carry on winning ...

32. Signs of Disfunction Zillions of toolkits are a sign that something is wrong. If browsers were perfect we wouldn’t need Dojo or DWR or any of the other toolkits © Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

39. Reliability Local or Global? •Depending on small scale reliability can hurt •Large scale reliability requires anticipation of failure •Markup deﬁnes the Open Web through reliability © Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

40. Reliability The web has some great features borrowed from Unix •Small, independent units •Linked through debuggable text based protocols It adds features from living things •The ability to cope with failure •That can adapt when the world changes © Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

42. Trust What do you worry about when using the web? •Web worms •Privacy invasion •Data in transit •Identity Theft •Browser Security •How to build something trustable © Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

44. Trust What does the web need? •Content Restrictions •An anti CSRF marker for cookies •Sandboxing •Less brittle models of building relationships •SMASH, XIP, etc. © Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

47. Momentum Web Standards: •Not all have been transparent •Working groups break down when the participants don’t play ball •Adding IQ to a large group reduces the IQ of the group •Working groups don’t test for ﬁtness © Sitepen Inc. 2008. All Rights Reserved

48. What if we don’t get the tools we need? Toolkits Flash Gears

Is the Open Web the Platform for Tomorrow

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