SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 19
AAII San Francisco Meeting   Saturday March 20, 2010 Presented by: Tom Kopas www.pringturner.com Since 2000 a “Lost Decade” For Investors…  Are you Prepared for Another “Lost Decade?” The Secular and Cyclical Outlook for Stocks, Bonds, and Commodities
U.S. Stock Prices www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group 1 2 3 4
19-years/67% decline/ 4 recessions 16-years/62% decline/ 4 recessions 10-years/43% decline/ 2 recessions ? ? 19-years/69% decline/ 6 recessions
Only Halfway Through Secular Bear  Completed Secular Bear Target Area 2016-2020 www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group
U.S. Stock Prices (Inflation Adjusted) www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group
1901 1929 1966 2000 Price Moves in Excess of 25% 1 5 6 7 2 3 4 1 5 6 7 2 3 4 1 5 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
Key Points: Secular Trend for Stocks ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Financial markets are linked in a logical, rational, and sequential relationship to business activity. Financial markets have been tracking these business cycle sequences for over 150 years. Pring Turner Investment Approach
The Random Noise of Economic News www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group 9
Money Supply Bond Prices Stock Prices Economy Commodities ? www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group 9
 
Key Points: Investing Around the Business Cycle ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Bearish March 2010  Secular Bear Market  30 Year Secular Bull Market  3 % 7 12 15 % www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group 9 10 03 78 54
(Inverted) Breaking Uptrend? 3 7 12 15 % % www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group
www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group
Commodity Prices www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group 9 10 Inflation Barometer is at 100%.
Key Points: Secular Trend Bonds/Commodities ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Tactics to Protect and Grow Wealth   Secular Trend  at  Critical Juncture  March 2010 www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group Tactics Cyclical Secular Class Favor Natural Resource Companies “ Chindia” Theme, Global Resource Demand Precious Metal Exposure Resource Based Countries Canadian Royalty Trusts Bull Bull Inflation Sensitive Assets Review and Reconsider Risks Lower Bond Allocation Reduce Bond Maturities Set up Short-term Bond Ladder Hedge Bonds with Inflation Sensitive Securities Bear   Bear? Bonds Use Business Cycle to Tactically Allocate Assets Inflation Themes are in Secular Bull Resourced Based, Foreign-Emerging Markets Quality with International Exposure Income Producers  Bull Bear Stocks
Thanks for Listening… You are welcome to visit our website  www.pringturner.com  for research updates

More Related Content

Featured

Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)contently
 
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024Albert Qian
 
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie InsightsSocial Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie InsightsKurio // The Social Media Age(ncy)
 
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Search Engine Journal
 
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summarySpeakerHub
 
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd Clark Boyd
 
Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next Tessa Mero
 
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search IntentGoogle's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search IntentLily Ray
 
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity -  Best PracticesTime Management & Productivity -  Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity - Best PracticesVit Horky
 
The six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project managementThe six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project managementMindGenius
 
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...RachelPearson36
 
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...Applitools
 
12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work
12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work
12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at WorkGetSmarter
 
Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...
Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...
Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...DevGAMM Conference
 
Barbie - Brand Strategy Presentation
Barbie - Brand Strategy PresentationBarbie - Brand Strategy Presentation
Barbie - Brand Strategy PresentationErica Santiago
 
Good Stuff Happens in 1:1 Meetings: Why you need them and how to do them well
Good Stuff Happens in 1:1 Meetings: Why you need them and how to do them wellGood Stuff Happens in 1:1 Meetings: Why you need them and how to do them well
Good Stuff Happens in 1:1 Meetings: Why you need them and how to do them wellSaba Software
 

Featured (20)

Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
 
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
 
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie InsightsSocial Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
 
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
 
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
 
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
 
Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next
 
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search IntentGoogle's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
 
How to have difficult conversations
How to have difficult conversations How to have difficult conversations
How to have difficult conversations
 
Introduction to Data Science
Introduction to Data ScienceIntroduction to Data Science
Introduction to Data Science
 
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity -  Best PracticesTime Management & Productivity -  Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
 
The six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project managementThe six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project management
 
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
 
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...
 
12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work
12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work
12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work
 
ChatGPT webinar slides
ChatGPT webinar slidesChatGPT webinar slides
ChatGPT webinar slides
 
More than Just Lines on a Map: Best Practices for U.S Bike Routes
More than Just Lines on a Map: Best Practices for U.S Bike RoutesMore than Just Lines on a Map: Best Practices for U.S Bike Routes
More than Just Lines on a Map: Best Practices for U.S Bike Routes
 
Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...
Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...
Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...
 
Barbie - Brand Strategy Presentation
Barbie - Brand Strategy PresentationBarbie - Brand Strategy Presentation
Barbie - Brand Strategy Presentation
 
Good Stuff Happens in 1:1 Meetings: Why you need them and how to do them well
Good Stuff Happens in 1:1 Meetings: Why you need them and how to do them wellGood Stuff Happens in 1:1 Meetings: Why you need them and how to do them well
Good Stuff Happens in 1:1 Meetings: Why you need them and how to do them well
 

Pring Turner Capital AAII Presentation (March 2010)

  • 1. AAII San Francisco Meeting Saturday March 20, 2010 Presented by: Tom Kopas www.pringturner.com Since 2000 a “Lost Decade” For Investors… Are you Prepared for Another “Lost Decade?” The Secular and Cyclical Outlook for Stocks, Bonds, and Commodities
  • 2. U.S. Stock Prices www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group 1 2 3 4
  • 3. 19-years/67% decline/ 4 recessions 16-years/62% decline/ 4 recessions 10-years/43% decline/ 2 recessions ? ? 19-years/69% decline/ 6 recessions
  • 4. Only Halfway Through Secular Bear Completed Secular Bear Target Area 2016-2020 www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group
  • 5. U.S. Stock Prices (Inflation Adjusted) www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group
  • 6. 1901 1929 1966 2000 Price Moves in Excess of 25% 1 5 6 7 2 3 4 1 5 6 7 2 3 4 1 5 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
  • 7.
  • 8. Financial markets are linked in a logical, rational, and sequential relationship to business activity. Financial markets have been tracking these business cycle sequences for over 150 years. Pring Turner Investment Approach
  • 9. The Random Noise of Economic News www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group 9
  • 10. Money Supply Bond Prices Stock Prices Economy Commodities ? www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group 9
  • 11.  
  • 12.
  • 13. Bearish March 2010 Secular Bear Market 30 Year Secular Bull Market 3 % 7 12 15 % www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group 9 10 03 78 54
  • 14. (Inverted) Breaking Uptrend? 3 7 12 15 % % www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group
  • 16. Commodity Prices www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group 9 10 Inflation Barometer is at 100%.
  • 17.
  • 18. Tactics to Protect and Grow Wealth Secular Trend at Critical Juncture March 2010 www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group Tactics Cyclical Secular Class Favor Natural Resource Companies “ Chindia” Theme, Global Resource Demand Precious Metal Exposure Resource Based Countries Canadian Royalty Trusts Bull Bull Inflation Sensitive Assets Review and Reconsider Risks Lower Bond Allocation Reduce Bond Maturities Set up Short-term Bond Ladder Hedge Bonds with Inflation Sensitive Securities Bear Bear? Bonds Use Business Cycle to Tactically Allocate Assets Inflation Themes are in Secular Bull Resourced Based, Foreign-Emerging Markets Quality with International Exposure Income Producers Bull Bear Stocks
  • 19. Thanks for Listening… You are welcome to visit our website www.pringturner.com for research updates