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1. Fiscally Speaking Tour
Putting Federal Finances in Order
Featured Speaker Series
Dallas Business Club
Dallas, TX
August 30th, 2011
Hon. David M. Walker
Founder and CEO
The Comeback America Initiative
and
Former Comptroller General of the United States
2. The Bottom Line
“If we do not take steps to keep our economy strong for
both today and tomorrow, our national security,
international standing, standard of living, social safety
net, and even our domestic tranquility will suffer over
time.”
-Hon. David M. Walker, Former Comptroller General
of the United States (1998-2008)
2
4. Composition of Federal Spending
(% of Total Outlays)
Defense Other Discretionary Medicare and Medicaid
Social Security Other Mandatory Net Interest
7% 6%
20%
12% 12%
42%
15%
20%
19%
4%
20%
307 % Growth in 23%
1970 2010 Dollars
2010
($944 Billion) ($2.901 Trillion)
Source: CBO, Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2011 Through 2021, Historical Tables
Note: All numbers are in constant 2010 dollars .
4
5. Federal Spending &
the Political Party in Power
$3,500
Democratic Controlled Congress Republican Controlled Congress Patient Protection and
Affordable Care
Split Congress Republican President Act of 2010
America Recovery and
Democratic President Reinvestment Act of 2009
$3,000
Medicare Prescription Drug,
Improvement, and Modernization Act
of 2003and the Invasion of Iraq
End of Statutory Budget Controls 2002
$2,500
Billions of Constant 2005 Dollars
Deficit Reduction
Act of 1993
2001 Invasion
Budget Enforcement of Afghanistan
$2,000 Act of 1990
Gramm-Rudman-Hollings
Balanced Budget and Emergency
Deficit Control Act of 1985
$1,500
End of WWII Social Security Act of 1965
(Medicare)
$1,000
Korean Conflict Vietnam Conflict
1950-53 1960-75
$500
$0
1945
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Fiscal Years
Source: OMB, Budget, Historical Tables, Table 1.3—Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits (−) in Current Dollars,
Constant (FY 2005) Dollars, and as Percentages of GDP: 1940–2016
5
6. Federal Debt Burdens
$16
$14.6 Trillion
Intragovernmental Held 96% of GDP
$14
Debt
Publicly Held Debt
$4.7 Trillion
$12 31.1% of GDP
In Trillions of U.S. Dollars
$10
$8
$5.6 Trillion
58% of GDP
$6 $9.9 Trillion
$2.3 Trillion 66.1% of GDP
23% of GDP
$4
$2 $3.4 Trillion
35% of GDP
$0
Sepetember 30th 2000 August 11th 2011
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Treasury, Bureau of the Public Debt, Debt to the Penny; CBO, Long-Term Budget Outlook (June 2011); OMB, Historical Tables, Table 1.2.
6
7. Federal Financial Hole
(For Fiscal 2000 and 2010)
In Trillions of Dollars 2000 2010
Explicit Liabilities $ 6.9 $16.4
•Publicly Held Debt 3.4 9.1
•Military & Civilian Pensions & Retiree Health 2.8 5.7
•Other Major Fiscal Exposures 0.7 1.6
Commitments & Contingencies 0.5 2.1
E.g. Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, Undelivered Orders
Actuary's
Trustees’
Alternative
Estimates
Scenario
Social Insurance Promises 13.0 30.8 43.1
•Future Social Security Benefits 3.8 8.0 8.0
•Future Medicare Benefits 9.2 22.8 35.1
Future Medicare Part A Benefits 2.7 2.7 7.3
Future Medicare Part B Benefits 6.5 12.9 20.6
Future Medicare Part D Benefits - 7.2 7.2
Total $20.4 $49.3 $61.6
SOURCE: Data from the Department of Treasury, 2010 Financial Report of the United States Government.
NOTE: Numbers may not add due to rounding. Trustees’ Estimates for Medicare and Social Security benefits are from the Social Security and Medicare Trustees reports, which are as of January 1,
2010 and show social insurance promises for the next 75 years. Estimates for the Actuary’s Alternative Scenario are found in note 26 of the 2010 Financial Report of the United States. Future
liabilities are discounted to present value based on a real interest rate of 2.9% and CPI growth of 2.8%. The totals do not include liabilities on the balance sheets of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the
Federal Reserve. Assets of the U.S. government not included.
7
8. Fiscal Gap 2011
$4,000
Even if we cut all of discretionary spending in 2011 the
Federal Government would still be operating a $105 billion deficit.
$3,500
Discretionary
Spending $1,375
$3,000
Billions of 2010 Dollars
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$2,108
$2,228
$1,000
$500
$225
$0
Outlays Revenues
SOURCE: CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2011 to 2021, Projections Data, Table 1-4. Compiled by TCAII.
8
9. Historical
Receipts & Outlays
$12,000
$10,000
Receipts per capita Outlays per Capita
$8,000
Real 2010 Dollars
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
1914 1918 1922 1926 1930 1934 1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
SOURCES: OMB Historical Tables, Table 1.3 - Summary Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits (-) in Current Dollars;
Bureau of Labor Statistics, and U.S. Census Bureau. Compiled by TCAII.
9
11. Total Federal Debt Per Capita &
The Political Party In Power
$50,000
Democrat Controlled Congress Republican Controlled Congress Split Congress
$45,000
As of 12/31/2010 $45,426
$40,000
$35,000
Real 2010 Dollars
$30,000
$25,000
End of WW2 $ 22,183
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Party of the President
SOURCES: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Treasury, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. House, and U.S. Senate. Compiled by TCAII
NOTE: All amounts are adjusted for inflation and in 2010 Dollars. Federal Debt is the total public debt outstanding and intragovernmental holdings.
11
12. Comparative Debt Burdens
160%
2011 2016
140%
Gross Total Debt As a Percentage of GDP
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Greece Italy Portugal Ireland Spain United Kingdom United States
SOURCE: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database. Compiled by TCAII.
Note: Data for 2011 and 2016 are estimates. Gross debt consists of all liabilities that require payment or payments of interest and/or principal by the debtor to the creditor
at a date or dates in the future. This includes debt liabilities in the form of SDRs, currency and deposits, debt securities, loans, insurance, pensions and standardized guarantee
schemes, and other accounts payable. Thus, all liabilities in the GFSM 2001 system are debt, except for equity and investment fund shares and financial derivatives and
employee stock options. Debt can be valued at current market, nominal, or face values (GFSM 2001, paragraph 7.110).
12
14. Fiscal Fitness Index: Overall Results
Rank Country Rank Country
1 Australia 18 Mexico
2 New Zealand 19 Israel
3 Estonia 20 Slovenia
4 Sweden 21 Austria
5 China 22 Finland
6 Luxembourg 23 France
7 Chile 24 Spain
8 Denmark 25 Germany
9 United Kingdom 26 Belgium
10 Brazil 27 Italy
11 Canada 28 United States
12 India 29 Hungary
13 Poland 30 Ireland
14 Netherlands 31 Japan*
15 Norway 32 Iceland**
16 Slovakia 33 Portugal
17 Korea 34 Greece
Source: Sovereign Fiscal Responsibility Index.
Note: *Japan’s debt was downgraded by Moody’s 1/29/11. 14
** Iceland’s Sustainable Fiscal Path reflects reforms enacted after an IMF bailout and there is a legal case pending in regard to foreign losses incurred due to the failure of Landsbanki.
17. Medicare Costs Per Beneficiary
$12,000
Part D Part B HI
$10,000
$8,000
Real 2005 Dollars
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: CMS, 2011 Annual Report of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds, Table V. B1;
17
18. Comparative Health Costs
9,000
$7,960
8,000
The United States spends more than double the OECD average with below average
health care results.
7,000
Per Capita Health Care Costs
6,000
U.S. Dollars
5,000
$4,363 $4,218
$3,978
4,000 $3,722
$3,361 $3,487
$2,983
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
OECD Average Canada France Germany New Zealand Sweden United Kingdom United States
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD Health Data 2011. Compiled by TCAII.
Note: Per capita health expenditures for 2009 uses purchasing power parity for all dollar amounts.
18
19. Relative Defense Spending
The United States spent more on defense in 2010 than the other 14 highest
700 defense budgets combined. The Majority of which are our allies $698 Billion
$646 Billion
Turkey
Canada
600 Australia
In Billions of Constant 2009 Dollars
South Korea
Brazil
500 Italy
India
Germany
400
Saudi Arabia
Japan
300
U.S.A
Russia
200 France
United Kingdom
100
China
0
SOURCE: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, SIPRI Military Expenditure Database 2011. Compiled by TCAII.
19
20. Federal Revenues &
the Political Party in Power
$3,000
Democratic Controlled Congress Republican Controlled congress Jobs and Growth Tax
Economic Growth and Tax
Relief Reconciliation
Split Congress Democratic President Relief Reconciliation
Act of 2003
Act of 2001
&
Republican President &
Invasion of Iraq
Invasion of Afghanistan
$2,500
Billions of Constant 2005 Dollars
$2,000
Omnibus Budget
Reconciliation Act
Tax Reform Act of 1986 of 1993
Economic Recovery
Tax Act of 1981
$1,500
Revenue Act of 1964
$1,000
Vietnam Conflict
End of WWII 1960-75
Korean Conflict
1950-53
$500
$0
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Fiscal Years
Source: OMB, Budget, Historical Tables, Table 1.3—Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits (−) in Current Dollars,
Constant (FY 2005) Dollars, and as Percentages of GDP: 1940–2016
20
23. Effective Corporate Tax Rate
35%
30%
25% Average Effective Tax Rate 20.9%
Effective Corporate Tax Rate
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Ireland Australia United Kingdom Germany Italy Canada France Mexico United States Japan
SOURCE: American Enterprise Institute, "Report Card on Effective Corporate Tax Rates: United States Gets an F".
Note: The effective corporate tax rate takes into account tax offsets, the present value of depreciations, and other deductions that narrow the tax base. Average includes countries not included
in the table.
23
24. State Pension and Health Costs
30%
16.4%
Retiree Health Obligations Retiree Pension Obligations
14.5%
16.0%
25%
Actuarially Required Contribution as
Percent Share of State Revenue
20%
15%
12.1% 11.8%
10% 5.0%
9.5%
0.6%
0.6%
1.4%
6.6%
5% 5.7%
0.3%
4.2% 4.3%
3.5%
0%
New Jersey Alabama Hawaii Texas Iowa Minnesota Wisconsin North Dakota
NOTE: The actuarially required contribution is the annual contribution to the retiree pension and health funds required for future assets to be in
line with future liabilities within 30 years. It has two components: a normal contribution to keep up with new benefit obligations accrued, and a
catch-up payment to make up for the current gap between pension assets and liabilities. The data for both revenues and unfunded obligations are
for fiscal year 2008. Most states end their fiscal year in June of 2008, and therefore these numbers do not include losses in the stock market that
led to losses in most pension funds.
24
25. State Rankings by Taxpayer’s Burden
Best to Worst (Thousands of Dollars)
1. Wyoming $15.1 18. Nevada $ 4.2 35. New York $ 13.7
2. North Dakota $ 6.4 19. Missouri $ 4.6 36. Maine $ 14.3
3. Nebraska $ 2.5 20. Ohio $ 4.7 37. Mississippi $ 14.3
4. Utah $ 2.2 21. Virginia $ 4.8 38. Rhode Island $ 14.3
5. South Dakota $ 0.3 22. Wisconsin $ 5.1 39. Michigan $ 14.7
6. Iowa $ 0.4 23. Texas $ 5.7 40. California $ 15.1
7. Montana $ 0.7 24. Kansas $ 5.8 41. Delaware $ 15.9
8. Arkansas $ 0.7 25. Washington $ 6.5 42. Maryland $ 16.5
9. Tennessee $ 1.2 26. Pennsylvania $ 8.2 43. Louisiana $ 16.8
10. Alaska $ 1.4 27. Georgia $ 8.9 44. West Virginia $ 18.9
11. Minnesota $ 1.9 28. New Mexico $ 9.0 45. Massachusetts $ 20.1
12. Indiana $ 2.3 29. South Carolina $ 9.7 46. Kentucky $ 23.8
13. Florida $ 2.5 30. Oklahoma $ 10.0 47. Hawaii $ 25.0
14. Oregon $ 2.6 31. North Carolina $ 11.2 48. Illinois $ 26.8
15. Arizona $ 2.6 32. New Hampshire $ 11.6 49. New Jersey $ 34.6
16. Colorado $ 2.8 33. Vermont $ 12.5 50. Connecticut $ 41.2
17. Idaho $ 2.9 34. Alabama $ 12.9
Numbers in red denote burden per taxpayer, Numbers in black denote a surplus per taxpayer
Source: 2009, Institute for Truth in Accounting 25
26. Key Systemic Challenges
• Expansion of government at all levels
• Health Care Costs
• Retirement Income Costs
• Disability and Welfare Related Costs
• Critical Infrastructure Needs
• Education Costs
• Corrections Costs
• Outdated and Inadequate Revenue Systems
• Myopia, Tunnel Vision, Special Interests and Self-Interest.
26
27. A Way Forward
Federal:
• Implement statutory budget controls that address discretionary and mandatory
spending as well as tax preferences in order to stabilize our debt/ GDP at a
reasonable level
• Achieve Social Security reform that makes the program solvent, sustainable,
secure and more savings oriented
• Reduce the rate of increase in health care costs and more effectively target
related taxpayer subsidies and tax preferences
• Ensure that all future health care reforms adequately consider coverage, cost
quality and personal responsibility
• Pursue comprehensive tax reform that makes the system more streamlined,
understandable, equitable and competitive while also generating adequate
revenues
27
28. A Way Forward - Continued
• Review, re-prioritize and re-engineer the base of the federal government,
including national security strategies, to focus on the future, eliminate waste,
generate real results and ensure sustainability
• Ensure that we have process that will enable us to achieve the above
objectives within a reasonable period of time
State and Local:
• Reform pension and health systems to make them reasonable, affordable and
sustainable
• Review, re-prioritize and re-engineer the base of government.
• Pursue comprehensive tax reform in coordination with the federal
government.
• Consider an exchange of primary roles, functions and revenue sources as part
of a new federalism or devolution effort (e.g., health care, education,
infrastructure)
28
29. Feasibility Test
Fiscal Reforms Must Meet a Feasibility Test:
1) Do they make economic sense?
2) Are they socially equitable?
3) Are they culturally acceptable?
4) Do they pass a math test?
5) Are they politically feasible?
6) Can they achieve significant bipartisan support?
29
30. Preemptive (Prudent) Framework
Examples
• Budget Controls & Process Reforms
– PAYGO rules on spending and taxes.
– Spending caps that only exempt interest and Social Security.
– Debt/GDP targets with automatic enforcement mechanisms.
• Social Security
– Focus most changes on people under age 55.
– Increase early and full retirement age.
– Modify cost-of-living index formula.
– Make benefit formula more progressive.
– Consider a taxable wage base increase.
• Healthcare
– Repeal the CLASS Act provisions of the ACA.
– Subject federal health expenditures to an annual budget.
– Transform federal payment system to an evidence-based and outcome-oriented approach.
– Rationalize healthcare promises.
– Reduce taxpayer subsidies to higher income beneficiaries.
30
31. Preemptive (Prudent) Framework Cont.
Examples
• Defense
– Reduce U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan to no more than 45K by Dec. 31, 2014.
– Require DoD planning to consider current and expected resource levels.
– Require the DoD to implement the systemic acquisition and contracting reforms recommended by
the GAO.
– Reduce DoD overhead by at least 25%.
• Other Spending
– Switch all relevant federal benefits programs to chain-linked CPI.
– Reduce discretionary spending to 2008 levels adjusted for inflation.
– Reform federal insurance programs and tax payer subsidies.
– Make $500 billion in additional during fiscal 2012-2013.
• Revenues
– Do not allow federal revenues to exceed 21.5% of GDP.
– Move to enact comprehensive income tax reform that eliminates and targets tax expenditures
while reducing the top marginal tax rate for individuals and corporations to no more than 25%.
– Allow corporations to deduct dividends paid.
– Consider a consumption tax of up to 5% if necessary.
31
32. Reactive (Crisis) Framework
Examples
Reactive Framework Differences
(This framework is in case Washington fails to properly manage the debt and interest rates rise.)
• Social Security
– Reforms will impact everyone under the age of 60.
– Increase retirement eligibility ages one additional year.
– Taxable wage base would increase in 2014.
• Healthcare
– Repeal Affordable Care Act and Medicare Modernization Act
– Accelerate the increase in the eligibility age for Medicare.
– Accelerate changes in reducing health care subsidies for higher income individuals.
– Delay move towards universal healthcare.
32
33. Reactive (Crisis) Framework Cont.
Examples
• Defense
– Accelerate all actions in making the Pentagon and military forces more efficient.
– Accelerate troop withdrawals in Iraq & Afghanistan to 2012.
• Other Spending
– Accelerate changes and lower spending caps.
– Eliminate additional investments in fiscal 2012-2013.
• Revenues
– Repeal the Middle Class Tax Relief Act of 2010.
– Impose temporary deficit surcharge of 0.7% for 2013-2014.
33
34. Comparison
Baseline EPI CAI Preemptive Framework
2021 2035 2021 2035 2021 2035
Receipts 20.8% 23.3% 21.6% 24.1% 20.8% 21.5%
Outlays 24.0% 28.3% 24.5% 27.8% 21.8% 23.1%
Deficit* 3.2% 5.0% 2.9% 3.7% 1.0% 1.5%
Debt 76.7% 91.5% 76.5% 81.7% 62.9% 51.4.%
CAI Reactive Framework Heritage Fiscal Commission
2021 2035 2021 2035 2021 2035
Receipts 20.8% 21.5% 18.3% 18.5% 20.3% 21.0%
Outlays 20.1% 21.8% 18.1% 17.7% 21.8% 21.0%
Deficit* -0.7% 0.3% -0.2% -0.8% 1.6% 0.0%
Debt 50.9% 28.2% 58.2% 30.0% 68.5% 40.0%
Note: Fiscal Commission data for 2021 is from the Commission for a Responsible Federal Budget re-estimate of the Fiscal Plan and data for 2035 is taken from the assumptions
found within the Fiscal Commission report “The Moment or Truth”. Deficit*: Negative numbers represent surpluses. 34
36. Transforming Government
(Basic questions for Policies & Programs)
• When & why was it created?
• Have conditions changed, and have we adapted?
• How are we measuring success, and are we achieving desired outcomes?
• Are there multiple programs, and if so are they working in an integrated
manner?
• Are we using the experience of others (e.g., countries, states) to replicate
success and avoid mistakes?
• Can we afford and sustain it in its present form?
36
37. New Players on the
Fiscal Responsibility Field
Comeback America Initiative (CAI)
Bridgeport, CT
www.TCAII.org
No Labels
Washington, DC
www.nolabels.org
37
