Fiscally Speaking TourPutting Federal Finances in Order            Featured Speaker Series             Dallas Business Clu...
The Bottom Line“If we do not take steps to keep our economy strong for    both today and tomorrow, our national security,i...
Growth of Government                       3
Composition of Federal Spending                                     (% of Total Outlays)       Defense                    ...
Federal Spending &                                                                                                   the P...
Federal Debt Burdens                                 $16                                                                  ...
Federal Financial Hole                                                                             (For Fiscal 2000 and 20...
Fiscal Gap 2011                           $4,000                                                                          ...
Historical                                                             Receipts & Outlays       $12,000       $10,000     ...
Projected Surplus?                     10
Total Federal Debt Per Capita &                                             The Political Party In Power                  ...
Comparative Debt Burdens                                          160%                                                    ...
Growing Foreign Dependency                             13
Fiscal Fitness Index: Overall Results                           Rank                        Country                       ...
CBO’s Public Debt Projections200%                      Actual180%                      Projection: Alternative Fiscal Scen...
Impact of Health Reform                          16
Medicare Costs Per Beneficiary            $12,000                                            Part D              Part B   ...
Comparative Health Costs                               9,000                                                              ...
Relative Defense Spending                                               The United States spent more on defense in 2010 th...
Federal Revenues &                                                                         the Political Party in Power   ...
Progressive Tax System                         21
Effective Tax Rates                      22
Effective Corporate Tax Rate                               35%                               30%                          ...
State Pension and Health Costs                                   30%                                              16.4%   ...
State Rankings by Taxpayer’s Burden                        Best to Worst (Thousands of Dollars)1.    Wyoming      $15.1   ...
Key Systemic Challenges•   Expansion of government at all levels•   Health Care Costs•   Retirement Income Costs•   Disabi...
A Way ForwardFederal:   •   Implement statutory budget controls that address discretionary and mandatory       spending as...
A Way Forward - Continued•   Review, re-prioritize and re-engineer the base of the federal government,    including nation...
Feasibility TestFiscal Reforms Must Meet a Feasibility Test:   1) Do they make economic sense?   2) Are they socially equi...
Preemptive (Prudent) Framework                                           Examples• Budget Controls & Process Reforms    – ...
Preemptive (Prudent) Framework Cont.                                            Examples• Defense   – Reduce U.S. forces i...
Reactive (Crisis) Framework                                             ExamplesReactive Framework Differences(This framew...
Reactive (Crisis) Framework Cont.                                          Examples• Defense   – Accelerate all actions in...
Comparison                                                 Baseline                                              EPI      ...
Results12%                                                             Deficits                              Current Law B...
Transforming Government         (Basic questions for Policies & Programs)•   When & why was it created?•   Have conditions...
New Players on the                Fiscal Responsibility FieldComeback America Initiative (CAI)Bridgeport, CTwww.TCAII.orgN...
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083011 fiscally speaking dallas business club dallas tx

  1. 1. Fiscally Speaking TourPutting Federal Finances in Order Featured Speaker Series Dallas Business Club Dallas, TX August 30th, 2011 Hon. David M. Walker Founder and CEO The Comeback America Initiative and Former Comptroller General of the United States
  2. 2. The Bottom Line“If we do not take steps to keep our economy strong for both today and tomorrow, our national security,international standing, standard of living, social safety net, and even our domestic tranquility will suffer over time.” -Hon. David M. Walker, Former Comptroller General of the United States (1998-2008) 2
  3. 3. Growth of Government 3
  4. 4. Composition of Federal Spending (% of Total Outlays) Defense Other Discretionary Medicare and Medicaid Social Security Other Mandatory Net Interest 7% 6% 20% 12% 12% 42% 15% 20% 19% 4% 20% 307 % Growth in 23% 1970 2010 Dollars 2010 ($944 Billion) ($2.901 Trillion)Source: CBO, Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2011 Through 2021, Historical TablesNote: All numbers are in constant 2010 dollars . 4
  5. 5. Federal Spending & the Political Party in Power $3,500 Democratic Controlled Congress Republican Controlled Congress Patient Protection and Affordable Care Split Congress Republican President Act of 2010 America Recovery and Democratic President Reinvestment Act of 2009 $3,000 Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act of 2003and the Invasion of Iraq End of Statutory Budget Controls 2002 $2,500 Billions of Constant 2005 Dollars Deficit Reduction Act of 1993 2001 Invasion Budget Enforcement of Afghanistan $2,000 Act of 1990 Gramm-Rudman-Hollings Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985 $1,500 End of WWII Social Security Act of 1965 (Medicare) $1,000 Korean Conflict Vietnam Conflict 1950-53 1960-75 $500 $0 1945 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Fiscal YearsSource: OMB, Budget, Historical Tables, Table 1.3—Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits (−) in Current Dollars,Constant (FY 2005) Dollars, and as Percentages of GDP: 1940–2016 5
  6. 6. Federal Debt Burdens $16 $14.6 Trillion Intragovernmental Held 96% of GDP $14 Debt Publicly Held Debt $4.7 Trillion $12 31.1% of GDP In Trillions of U.S. Dollars $10 $8 $5.6 Trillion 58% of GDP $6 $9.9 Trillion $2.3 Trillion 66.1% of GDP 23% of GDP $4 $2 $3.4 Trillion 35% of GDP $0 Sepetember 30th 2000 August 11th 2011SOURCE: U.S. Department of Treasury, Bureau of the Public Debt, Debt to the Penny; CBO, Long-Term Budget Outlook (June 2011); OMB, Historical Tables, Table 1.2. 6
  7. 7. Federal Financial Hole (For Fiscal 2000 and 2010) In Trillions of Dollars 2000 2010 Explicit Liabilities $ 6.9 $16.4 •Publicly Held Debt 3.4 9.1 •Military & Civilian Pensions & Retiree Health 2.8 5.7 •Other Major Fiscal Exposures 0.7 1.6 Commitments & Contingencies 0.5 2.1 E.g. Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, Undelivered Orders Actuarys Trustees’ Alternative Estimates Scenario Social Insurance Promises 13.0 30.8 43.1 •Future Social Security Benefits 3.8 8.0 8.0 •Future Medicare Benefits 9.2 22.8 35.1 Future Medicare Part A Benefits 2.7 2.7 7.3 Future Medicare Part B Benefits 6.5 12.9 20.6 Future Medicare Part D Benefits - 7.2 7.2 Total $20.4 $49.3 $61.6SOURCE: Data from the Department of Treasury, 2010 Financial Report of the United States Government.NOTE: Numbers may not add due to rounding. Trustees’ Estimates for Medicare and Social Security benefits are from the Social Security and Medicare Trustees reports, which are as of January 1,2010 and show social insurance promises for the next 75 years. Estimates for the Actuary’s Alternative Scenario are found in note 26 of the 2010 Financial Report of the United States. Futureliabilities are discounted to present value based on a real interest rate of 2.9% and CPI growth of 2.8%. The totals do not include liabilities on the balance sheets of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and theFederal Reserve. Assets of the U.S. government not included. 7
  8. 8. Fiscal Gap 2011 $4,000 Even if we cut all of discretionary spending in 2011 the Federal Government would still be operating a $105 billion deficit. $3,500 Discretionary Spending $1,375 $3,000Billions of 2010 Dollars $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $2,108 $2,228 $1,000 $500 $225 $0 Outlays RevenuesSOURCE: CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2011 to 2021, Projections Data, Table 1-4. Compiled by TCAII. 8
  9. 9. Historical Receipts & Outlays $12,000 $10,000 Receipts per capita Outlays per Capita $8,000Real 2010 Dollars $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 1914 1918 1922 1926 1930 1934 1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 SOURCES: OMB Historical Tables, Table 1.3 - Summary Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits (-) in Current Dollars; Bureau of Labor Statistics, and U.S. Census Bureau. Compiled by TCAII. 9
  10. 10. Projected Surplus? 10
  11. 11. Total Federal Debt Per Capita & The Political Party In Power $50,000 Democrat Controlled Congress Republican Controlled Congress Split Congress $45,000 As of 12/31/2010 $45,426 $40,000 $35,000Real 2010 Dollars $30,000 $25,000 End of WW2 $ 22,183 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Party of the President SOURCES: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Treasury, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. House, and U.S. Senate. Compiled by TCAII NOTE: All amounts are adjusted for inflation and in 2010 Dollars. Federal Debt is the total public debt outstanding and intragovernmental holdings. 11
  12. 12. Comparative Debt Burdens 160% 2011 2016 140%Gross Total Debt As a Percentage of GDP 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Greece Italy Portugal Ireland Spain United Kingdom United StatesSOURCE: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database. Compiled by TCAII.Note: Data for 2011 and 2016 are estimates. Gross debt consists of all liabilities that require payment or payments of interest and/or principal by the debtor to the creditorat a date or dates in the future. This includes debt liabilities in the form of SDRs, currency and deposits, debt securities, loans, insurance, pensions and standardized guaranteeschemes, and other accounts payable. Thus, all liabilities in the GFSM 2001 system are debt, except for equity and investment fund shares and financial derivatives andemployee stock options. Debt can be valued at current market, nominal, or face values (GFSM 2001, paragraph 7.110). 12
  13. 13. Growing Foreign Dependency 13
  14. 14. Fiscal Fitness Index: Overall Results Rank Country Rank Country 1 Australia 18 Mexico 2 New Zealand 19 Israel 3 Estonia 20 Slovenia 4 Sweden 21 Austria 5 China 22 Finland 6 Luxembourg 23 France 7 Chile 24 Spain 8 Denmark 25 Germany 9 United Kingdom 26 Belgium 10 Brazil 27 Italy 11 Canada 28 United States 12 India 29 Hungary 13 Poland 30 Ireland 14 Netherlands 31 Japan* 15 Norway 32 Iceland** 16 Slovakia 33 Portugal 17 Korea 34 GreeceSource: Sovereign Fiscal Responsibility Index.Note: *Japan’s debt was downgraded by Moody’s 1/29/11. 14** Iceland’s Sustainable Fiscal Path reflects reforms enacted after an IMF bailout and there is a legal case pending in regard to foreign losses incurred due to the failure of Landsbanki.
  15. 15. CBO’s Public Debt Projections200% Actual180% Projection: Alternative Fiscal Scenario160% Projection: Extended-Baseline Scenario 187%140%120%100% 80% 60% 40% 84% 20% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035SOURCE: CBO, Supplemental Data for Congressional Budget Offices Long-Term Budget Outlook (June 2011), Figure 1-2.Compiled by TCAII. 15
  16. 16. Impact of Health Reform 16
  17. 17. Medicare Costs Per Beneficiary $12,000 Part D Part B HI $10,000 $8,000Real 2005 Dollars $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: CMS, 2011 Annual Report of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds, Table V. B1; 17
  18. 18. Comparative Health Costs 9,000 $7,960 8,000 The United States spends more than double the OECD average with below average health care results. 7,000Per Capita Health Care Costs 6,000 U.S. Dollars 5,000 $4,363 $4,218 $3,978 4,000 $3,722 $3,361 $3,487 $2,983 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 OECD Average Canada France Germany New Zealand Sweden United Kingdom United States Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD Health Data 2011. Compiled by TCAII. Note: Per capita health expenditures for 2009 uses purchasing power parity for all dollar amounts. 18
  19. 19. Relative Defense Spending The United States spent more on defense in 2010 than the other 14 highest 700 defense budgets combined. The Majority of which are our allies $698 Billion $646 Billion Turkey Canada 600 Australia In Billions of Constant 2009 Dollars South Korea Brazil 500 Italy India Germany 400 Saudi Arabia Japan 300 U.S.A Russia 200 France United Kingdom 100 China 0SOURCE: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, SIPRI Military Expenditure Database 2011. Compiled by TCAII. 19
  20. 20. Federal Revenues & the Political Party in Power $3,000 Democratic Controlled Congress Republican Controlled congress Jobs and Growth Tax Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Split Congress Democratic President Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 Act of 2001 & Republican President & Invasion of Iraq Invasion of Afghanistan $2,500Billions of Constant 2005 Dollars $2,000 Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act Tax Reform Act of 1986 of 1993 Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 $1,500 Revenue Act of 1964 $1,000 Vietnam Conflict End of WWII 1960-75 Korean Conflict 1950-53 $500 $0 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Fiscal Years Source: OMB, Budget, Historical Tables, Table 1.3—Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits (−) in Current Dollars, Constant (FY 2005) Dollars, and as Percentages of GDP: 1940–2016 20
  21. 21. Progressive Tax System 21
  22. 22. Effective Tax Rates 22
  23. 23. Effective Corporate Tax Rate 35% 30% 25% Average Effective Tax Rate 20.9%Effective Corporate Tax Rate 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Ireland Australia United Kingdom Germany Italy Canada France Mexico United States JapanSOURCE: American Enterprise Institute, "Report Card on Effective Corporate Tax Rates: United States Gets an F".Note: The effective corporate tax rate takes into account tax offsets, the present value of depreciations, and other deductions that narrow the tax base. Average includes countries not includedin the table. 23
  24. 24. State Pension and Health Costs 30% 16.4% Retiree Health Obligations Retiree Pension Obligations 14.5% 16.0% 25%Actuarially Required Contribution as Percent Share of State Revenue 20% 15% 12.1% 11.8% 10% 5.0% 9.5% 0.6% 0.6% 1.4% 6.6% 5% 5.7% 0.3% 4.2% 4.3% 3.5% 0% New Jersey Alabama Hawaii Texas Iowa Minnesota Wisconsin North Dakota NOTE: The actuarially required contribution is the annual contribution to the retiree pension and health funds required for future assets to be in line with future liabilities within 30 years. It has two components: a normal contribution to keep up with new benefit obligations accrued, and a catch-up payment to make up for the current gap between pension assets and liabilities. The data for both revenues and unfunded obligations are for fiscal year 2008. Most states end their fiscal year in June of 2008, and therefore these numbers do not include losses in the stock market that led to losses in most pension funds. 24
  25. 25. State Rankings by Taxpayer’s Burden Best to Worst (Thousands of Dollars)1. Wyoming $15.1 18. Nevada $ 4.2 35. New York $ 13.72. North Dakota $ 6.4 19. Missouri $ 4.6 36. Maine $ 14.33. Nebraska $ 2.5 20. Ohio $ 4.7 37. Mississippi $ 14.34. Utah $ 2.2 21. Virginia $ 4.8 38. Rhode Island $ 14.35. South Dakota $ 0.3 22. Wisconsin $ 5.1 39. Michigan $ 14.76. Iowa $ 0.4 23. Texas $ 5.7 40. California $ 15.17. Montana $ 0.7 24. Kansas $ 5.8 41. Delaware $ 15.98. Arkansas $ 0.7 25. Washington $ 6.5 42. Maryland $ 16.59. Tennessee $ 1.2 26. Pennsylvania $ 8.2 43. Louisiana $ 16.810. Alaska $ 1.4 27. Georgia $ 8.9 44. West Virginia $ 18.911. Minnesota $ 1.9 28. New Mexico $ 9.0 45. Massachusetts $ 20.112. Indiana $ 2.3 29. South Carolina $ 9.7 46. Kentucky $ 23.813. Florida $ 2.5 30. Oklahoma $ 10.0 47. Hawaii $ 25.014. Oregon $ 2.6 31. North Carolina $ 11.2 48. Illinois $ 26.815. Arizona $ 2.6 32. New Hampshire $ 11.6 49. New Jersey $ 34.616. Colorado $ 2.8 33. Vermont $ 12.5 50. Connecticut $ 41.217. Idaho $ 2.9 34. Alabama $ 12.9Numbers in red denote burden per taxpayer, Numbers in black denote a surplus per taxpayerSource: 2009, Institute for Truth in Accounting 25
  26. 26. Key Systemic Challenges• Expansion of government at all levels• Health Care Costs• Retirement Income Costs• Disability and Welfare Related Costs• Critical Infrastructure Needs• Education Costs• Corrections Costs• Outdated and Inadequate Revenue Systems• Myopia, Tunnel Vision, Special Interests and Self-Interest. 26
  27. 27. A Way ForwardFederal: • Implement statutory budget controls that address discretionary and mandatory spending as well as tax preferences in order to stabilize our debt/ GDP at a reasonable level • Achieve Social Security reform that makes the program solvent, sustainable, secure and more savings oriented • Reduce the rate of increase in health care costs and more effectively target related taxpayer subsidies and tax preferences • Ensure that all future health care reforms adequately consider coverage, cost quality and personal responsibility • Pursue comprehensive tax reform that makes the system more streamlined, understandable, equitable and competitive while also generating adequate revenues 27
  28. 28. A Way Forward - Continued• Review, re-prioritize and re-engineer the base of the federal government, including national security strategies, to focus on the future, eliminate waste, generate real results and ensure sustainability• Ensure that we have process that will enable us to achieve the above objectives within a reasonable period of timeState and Local:• Reform pension and health systems to make them reasonable, affordable and sustainable• Review, re-prioritize and re-engineer the base of government.• Pursue comprehensive tax reform in coordination with the federal government.• Consider an exchange of primary roles, functions and revenue sources as part of a new federalism or devolution effort (e.g., health care, education, infrastructure) 28
  29. 29. Feasibility TestFiscal Reforms Must Meet a Feasibility Test: 1) Do they make economic sense? 2) Are they socially equitable? 3) Are they culturally acceptable? 4) Do they pass a math test? 5) Are they politically feasible? 6) Can they achieve significant bipartisan support? 29
  30. 30. Preemptive (Prudent) Framework Examples• Budget Controls & Process Reforms – PAYGO rules on spending and taxes. – Spending caps that only exempt interest and Social Security. – Debt/GDP targets with automatic enforcement mechanisms.• Social Security – Focus most changes on people under age 55. – Increase early and full retirement age. – Modify cost-of-living index formula. – Make benefit formula more progressive. – Consider a taxable wage base increase.• Healthcare – Repeal the CLASS Act provisions of the ACA. – Subject federal health expenditures to an annual budget. – Transform federal payment system to an evidence-based and outcome-oriented approach. – Rationalize healthcare promises. – Reduce taxpayer subsidies to higher income beneficiaries. 30
  31. 31. Preemptive (Prudent) Framework Cont. Examples• Defense – Reduce U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan to no more than 45K by Dec. 31, 2014. – Require DoD planning to consider current and expected resource levels. – Require the DoD to implement the systemic acquisition and contracting reforms recommended by the GAO. – Reduce DoD overhead by at least 25%.• Other Spending – Switch all relevant federal benefits programs to chain-linked CPI. – Reduce discretionary spending to 2008 levels adjusted for inflation. – Reform federal insurance programs and tax payer subsidies. – Make $500 billion in additional during fiscal 2012-2013.• Revenues – Do not allow federal revenues to exceed 21.5% of GDP. – Move to enact comprehensive income tax reform that eliminates and targets tax expenditures while reducing the top marginal tax rate for individuals and corporations to no more than 25%. – Allow corporations to deduct dividends paid. – Consider a consumption tax of up to 5% if necessary. 31
  32. 32. Reactive (Crisis) Framework ExamplesReactive Framework Differences(This framework is in case Washington fails to properly manage the debt and interest rates rise.)• Social Security – Reforms will impact everyone under the age of 60. – Increase retirement eligibility ages one additional year. – Taxable wage base would increase in 2014.• Healthcare – Repeal Affordable Care Act and Medicare Modernization Act – Accelerate the increase in the eligibility age for Medicare. – Accelerate changes in reducing health care subsidies for higher income individuals. – Delay move towards universal healthcare. 32
  33. 33. Reactive (Crisis) Framework Cont. Examples• Defense – Accelerate all actions in making the Pentagon and military forces more efficient. – Accelerate troop withdrawals in Iraq & Afghanistan to 2012.• Other Spending – Accelerate changes and lower spending caps. – Eliminate additional investments in fiscal 2012-2013.• Revenues – Repeal the Middle Class Tax Relief Act of 2010. – Impose temporary deficit surcharge of 0.7% for 2013-2014. 33
  34. 34. Comparison Baseline EPI CAI Preemptive Framework 2021 2035 2021 2035 2021 2035 Receipts 20.8% 23.3% 21.6% 24.1% 20.8% 21.5% Outlays 24.0% 28.3% 24.5% 27.8% 21.8% 23.1% Deficit* 3.2% 5.0% 2.9% 3.7% 1.0% 1.5% Debt 76.7% 91.5% 76.5% 81.7% 62.9% 51.4.% CAI Reactive Framework Heritage Fiscal Commission 2021 2035 2021 2035 2021 2035 Receipts 20.8% 21.5% 18.3% 18.5% 20.3% 21.0% Outlays 20.1% 21.8% 18.1% 17.7% 21.8% 21.0% Deficit* -0.7% 0.3% -0.2% -0.8% 1.6% 0.0% Debt 50.9% 28.2% 58.2% 30.0% 68.5% 40.0%Note: Fiscal Commission data for 2021 is from the Commission for a Responsible Federal Budget re-estimate of the Fiscal Plan and data for 2035 is taken from the assumptionsfound within the Fiscal Commission report “The Moment or Truth”. Deficit*: Negative numbers represent surpluses. 34
  35. 35. Results12% Deficits Current Law Baseline Preemptive Framework Reactive Framework10%8%6%4%2%0%-2% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035100% Public Debt Current Law Baseline Preemptive Framework Reactive Framework 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 35
  36. 36. Transforming Government (Basic questions for Policies & Programs)• When & why was it created?• Have conditions changed, and have we adapted?• How are we measuring success, and are we achieving desired outcomes?• Are there multiple programs, and if so are they working in an integrated manner?• Are we using the experience of others (e.g., countries, states) to replicate success and avoid mistakes?• Can we afford and sustain it in its present form? 36
  37. 37. New Players on the Fiscal Responsibility FieldComeback America Initiative (CAI)Bridgeport, CTwww.TCAII.orgNo LabelsWashington, DCwww.nolabels.org 37

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