The presentation from the 31/1 Market Seminar.

1. Weichert, Princeton Junction Office
January 2014
Real Estate
Market Update

2. Weichert, Princeton Office
January 2014
Real Estate
Market Update
Joshua D Wilton
Managing Broker
Princeton Office
DaveMcDermott
Gold Services Manager
Princeton Office

3. Agenda
1. The Market
- A History, Current Conditions and Forecast
2. Strategies for Buying & Selling
3. We are here to help

4. Agenda
1. The Real Estate Market
(a brief history)

5. Agenda
Then…

6. The Boom…
The boom….
Otteau.com

7. Otteau.com

8. NJ version of the bust...
The NJVersion of the Bust…
Otteau.com

9. 2012: State of the Market
Affordability
will
Spur Recovery

10. Affordability Index
Definition: A measure of the financial ability of US
Families to buy a house. 100 means that families
earning the national median income have just the
amount of money needed to qualify for a mortgage
on a median priced home.
Higher than100 means they have more than enough.
Lower than 100 means they have less than enough.
Source: NAR Housing Affordability Index 1971 to 2010

11. 194.5
Nov 2011
Affordability Index

12. NJ version of the bust...
The NJVersion of the Bust…
Otteau.com

13. The Forecast…

15. What’s ahead in 2014…?
• Low inventory, high demand in
popular price points and
neighborhoods
• Tight Listing Activity
• Multiple Offers
• Rising Prices
• Repeat, Smart-Money Buyers

16. Real Estate Market Update
What are the ‘experts’ saying about the market
now…?

18. “We expect single-family
home sales and housing
starts to be at the highest
level since 2007.”
Frank E. Nothaft
Chief Economist at Freddie Mac

19. "The conditions that led to the robust appreciation
experienced earlier this year, including historically
low mortgage interest rates, high affordability, low
inventory and high demand, are waning. In their
place, we're beginning to see more inventory and
rising mortgage rates, which will lead to further
normalization in the market going forward."
Dr. Stan Humphries
Zillow Chief Economist

20. "All those young people who moved in
with their parents over the past few
Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years.
years and didn't move out during the
recession, there should be pent-up
demand for household formation."
Jed Kolko
Trulia’s Chief Economist

21. I can do all my own research online…
Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years.
The Customer….

22. The Local Market

24. Online Estimates
If the estimate is accurate within
5% you’re talking about a $50,000
swing on a $500,000 estimate
The home value could be anywhere
from $475,000 - $525,000
And they’re only that close a third of
the time

25. The National Picture

26. 5,500,000
Existing Home Sales
5,000,000
4,500,000
4,000,000
S&P Case Shiller 12/2013

27. Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
35%
14%
NAR 12/2013

28. Year-Over-Year % Change in House Sales
NORTHEAST
WEST
Up 6.6%
Down 10.1%
MIDWEST
Unchanged
NAR’s Existing Homes
Sales Report 12.2013
SOUTH
Up 1%

29. Pending Home Sales
100 = Historically Healthy Level
NAR 12/2013

30. Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
NAR 12/2013

31. The New Jersey Picture

36. Agenda
Then…
Source: Otteau Valuation Group

37. The Greater Princeton Picture

38. Long Term Supply …
Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast
Richardson Commercial

39. Long Term Demand …
Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast
http://lwd.dol.state.nj.us/labor/lpa/pub/factbook/merfct.pdf

40. The Local Market
Top 5 Rules in Real Estate
Real Estate is Local
Real Estate is Local
Real Estate is Local
Real Estate is Local
Real Estate is Local

41. Mercer County
Source: Trend MLS

42. Somerset County
Source: Trend MLS

43. Middlesex County
Source: Trend MLS

44. Market Absorption Scale
(Absorption Rate in Months)
5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market.

45. “Market Absorption” Rate
Anytown., NJ
107 current active listings
4 reported sales in last 30 days
24.3
= months
absorption
rate
Market Absorption Rate is the Absorption Rate indicates to normal current inventory of
5-6 Months Market number of months it will take a sell the market.
homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same. Also referred
to as “Months of Inventory”
5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

46. 46
Market Scale for Supply & Demand
1
2
3
4
Normal
Market Absorption in Months
High Supply/Low Demand
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Normal
Low Supply/High Demand
Weichert has been
studying market
conditions for more than
3 decades and has found a
direct correlation between
market absorption and
property values.
As absorption rates
increase beyond a normal
market level of 5-6
months, property values
depreciate annually.
Note: This Market Scale is valid
only for absorption rates
between 1 and 12 months.

47. “Market Absorption” Rate
Anytown., NJ
107 current active listings
4 reported sales in last 30 days
24.3
= months
absorption
rate
Market Absorption Rate is the Absorption Rate indicates to normal current inventory of
5-6 Months Market number of months it will take a sell the market.
homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same. Also referred
to as “Months of Inventory”
5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

48. 2/25/14
Towns
Active
Listings
Pending in Absorption
Last 30
Rate in
Days
Months
Net Gain
New Listings
(Loss) to
in 30 Days
Market
Listings
Reduced in
30 Days
% of Invent.
Reduced
Expired
Listings
W/drawn
Listings
Closed
Listings
West Windsor:
All Styles
63
11
5.73
31
20
4
6.4%
1
2
10
West Windsor
Condo/
T.Houses
16
1
16
9
8
1
6.3%
0
1
2
West Windsor
55+
2
0
99
2
2
--
--
0
0
0
West Windsor
Single Family
45
10
4.5
20
10
3
6.7%
1
1
8
Lawrence: All
Styles
117
15
7.8
33
18
18
15.4%
8
7
13
Lawrence:
Condo/
THouses
33
4
8.3
17
13
2
6.1%
1
4
3
Lawrence:
55+
6
3
2
1
(2)
--
--
0
0
0
78
8
9.8
15
7
16
20.5%
7
3
10
Lawrence:
Single Family

49. 2/25/14
Towns
Active
Listings
Pending
in Last
30 Days
Absorption
Rate in
Months
Ewing:
All Styles
176
13
14
Ewing :
Condo/
T.Houses
32
1
Ewing
55+:
1
Ewing:
Single
Family
New
Listings in
30 Days
Net Gain
(Loss) to
Market
Listings
Reduced in
30 Days
% of
Invent.
Reduced
Expired
Listings
W/drawn
Listings
Closed
Listings
26
13
44
25%
12
2
14
32
8
7
4
13%
2
1
2
0
999
1
1
---
---
0
0
0
143
12
12
18
6
40
28%
10
1
12
East
Windsor:
All Styles
102
13
8
27
14
22
22%
10
2
14
East
Windsor:
Condo/
Thouses
57
6
10
21
15
16
28%
8
0
9
East
Windsor:
55+
8
1
8
8
7
---
---
1
0
0
East
Windsor:
Single
Family
37
6
6
6
0
6
16%
1
2
5

50. 2/25/14
Towns
Active
Listings
Pending
in Last
30 Days
Absorption
Rate in
Months
New
Listings in
30 Days
126
10
12.6
25
15
16
12.7%
4
3
4
Hopewell
Twp. Condo/
T.Houses
9
1
9.0
3
2
2
22.2%
0
1
1
Hopewell
Twp.:
55+
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0%
1
0
0
Hopewell Twp
Single Family
117
9
13.0
22
13
14
11.9%
3
2
3
Hamilton: All
Styles
415
35
11.86
87
52
65
15.7%
16
17
34
94
7
13.43
24
17
8
8.5%
0
4
5
4
2
2.00
0
(2)
0
0.0%
0
1
1
317
26
12.19
63
37
57
17.9%
16
12
28
Hopewell
Twp.
All Styles
Hamilton:
Condo/ THouses
Hamilton:
55+
Hamilton:
Single Family
Net Gain
(Loss) to
Market
Listings
Reduced in
30 Days
% of
Invent.
Reduced
Expired
Listings
W/drawn
Listings
Closed
Listings

51. 2/25/14
Towns
Active
Listings
Pending
in Last
30 Days
Absorption
Rate in
Months
New
Listings
in 30
Days
Net Gain
(Loss) to
Market
Listings
Reduced
in 30 Days
% of
Invent.
Reduced
Expired
Listings
W/drawn
Listings
Closed
Listings
Robbinsville
All Styles
64
18
4
25
7
7
11%
1
4
8
Robbinsville
Condo/
T.Houses
32
6
5
15
9
2
6%
1
3
4
Single Family
32
12
3
10
(2)
5
16%
0
1
4
Hightstown
Boro: All
Styles
32
2
16
6
4
4
13%
2
1
4
Pennington
20
2
10
6
4
3
15%
0
1
0
Hopewell Boro
9
1
9
1
0
0
0%
0
0
1

52. 2/25/14
Towns
Active
Listings
Pending in
Last 30
Days
Absorptio
n Rate in
Months
New
Listings in
30 Days
Net Gain
(Loss) to
Market
Listings
Reduced
in 30 Days
% of
Invent.
Reduced
Expired
Listings
W/drawn
Listings
Closed
Listings
Princeton:
All Styles
104
11
9.5
35
24
5
4.8%
1
6
13
Princeton:
Condo/
Thouses
26
5
5.2
5
0
1
3.8%
0
0
2
Princeton:
Single
Family
78
6
13
30
24
4
5.1%
1
6
11

53. 2/25/14
Towns
Active
Listings
Pending
in Last
30 Days
Absorption
Rate in
Months
New
Listings
in 30
Days
Net Gain
(Loss) to
Market
Listings
Reduced
in 30 Days
% of
Invent.
Reduced
Expired
Listings
W/drawn
Listings
Closed
Listings
South
Brunswick
All Styles
137
17
8
29
12
4
3
8
3
20
South
BrunswickCon
do/ T.Houses
34
7
5
8
1
-2
1
4
1
8
South
Brunswick
55+
25
0
99
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
South
Brunswick
Single Family
78
10
8
20
10
6
8
4
2
11
Monroe:
All Styles
279
26
10
85
59
7
5
30
2
61
Monroe:
55+
149
18
8
49
31
2
1
8
1
44
Monroe:
Single Family
130
8
16
36
28
5
4
12
1
16

54. 2/25/14
Towns
Active
Listings
Pending
in Last
30 Days
Absorption
Rate in
Months
New
Listings in
30 Days
Net Gain
(Loss) to
Market
Listings
Reduced
in 30 Days
% of
Invent.
Reduced
Expired
Listings
W/drawn
Listings
Closed
Listings
Montgomery
All Styles
77
25
3
31
+6
4
5%
4
2
13
Montgomery
Condo/Twnhms
9
3
3
6
+3
0
0
0
0
4
Single Family
68
22
3
25
+3
4
5%
4
2
9
Hillsborough
All Styles
129
39
3.3
42
+3
9
7%
6
13
24
Hillsborough
Condo/Twnhms
54
18
3
22
+4
5
9%
3
7
11
Hillsborough
Single Family
75
21
3.6
20
-1
4
5%
3
6
13

55. 2/25/14
Towns
Active
Listing
s
Pending
in Last
30 Days
Absorption
Rate in
Months
New
Listings in
30 Days
Net Gain
(Loss) to
Market
Listings
Reduced
in 30
Days
% of
Invent.
Reduced
Expired
Listings
W/drawn
Listings
Closed
Listings
Plainsboro
All Styles
34
5
6.8
19
14
3
8%
6
0
12
Plainsboro
cond0
T’home
5
2
2.5
7
5
0
0
2
0
5
Plainsboro
55+
10
1
10
3
2
0
0
1
0
3
Plainsboro
Single
Family
19
2
9.5
9
7
3
16%
3
0
4
Cranbury:
All Styles
13
1
13
2
1
4
31%
2
0
3

56. 2006 - 2008 Core Market Comparison: Week of 1/13/14
Town
’12
Inven.
Count
‘12
Pending
Sales
‘12
Absorp.
Rate
‘13
Inven.
Count
‘13
Pending
Sales
‘13
Absorp.
Rate
‘14
Inven.
Count
‘14
Pending
Sales
West
Windsor
95
18
5.3
72
12
6
Plainsboro
86
12
7.16
66
10
6.6
34
5
Lawrence
164
14
11.7
154
13
11.8
147
15
202
18
11
142
13
11
102
Hamilton
529
45
11.8
393
41
9.6
Hopewell
Twp
135
5
27
105
9
Robbinsville
118
10
12
67
Princeton
137
13
10.5
South
Brunswick
220
9
Montgomery
121
17
East
Windsor
63
11
‘14
Absorp.
Rate
5.3
Inventory
compared
to 2012
Inventory
compared to
2013
(24%)
(13%)
(23%)
(48%)
7.8
(6%)
(5%)
13
8
(30%)
(28%)
415
35
11
(25%)
5%
11.7
126
10
12.6
(28%)
20%
17
4
64
18
4
(43%)
4
113
11
10.2
104
11
9.5
(17%)
(7)
24
160
17
9
137
17
8
(27%)
(14%)
10.1
88
18
4.9
77
25
3
(27%)
(12%)
6.8

57. The Local Market
Real Estate is Local
It’s Local to the Town
It’s Local to the Price Point
It’s Local to the Neighborhood/Development
It’s Local to the Street
Real Estate is Local

58. Market Absorption Rate
Princeton
All Inventory
107 current active listings
9.72 months
= absorption
11 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 daysrate
Market Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of
homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same
5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

59. Market Absorption Rate
Princeton
NOT Single Family Homes
26 current active listings
6.5 months
= absorption
4 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days rate
Market Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of
homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same
5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

60. Market Absorption Rate
Princeton
Twin or Townhouse
3 bedroom
5 current active listings
2.5 months
= absorption
2 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days rate
Market Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of
homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same
5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

61. Market Absorption Rate
South Brunswick
All Inventory
137 current active listings
8 months
= absorption
17 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 daysrate
Market Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of
homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same
5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

62. Market Absorption Rate
South Brunswick
Condo/Townhouse Market
24 current active listings
12 months
= absorption
2 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days rate
Market Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of
homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same
5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

63. Market Absorption Rate
South Brunswick
Princeton Walk Development
All Types
3 current active listings
1.5 months
= absorption
2 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days rate
Market Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of
homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same
5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

64. Market Absorption Rate
South Brunswick
Princeton Walk Development
Townhomes
0 current active listings
0 months
= absorption
1 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days rate
Market Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of
homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same
5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

65. Market Absorption Rate
West Windsor
63 current active listings
5.75 months
= absorption
11 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 daysrate
Market Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of
homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same
5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

66. Market Absorption Rate
West Windsor
Under $500,000
22 current active listings
5.5 months
= absorption
4 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days rate
Market Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of
homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same
5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

67. Market Absorption Rate
West Windsor
$501,000 - $750,000
15 current active listings
3 months
= absorption
5 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days rate
Market Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of
homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same
5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

68. Market Absorption Rate
West Windsor
$750,000 +
11 current active listings
11 months
= absorption
1 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days rate
Market Absorption Rate is the number of months it will take to sell the current inventory of
homes if nothing new comes on the market and the rate of sales stays the same
5-6 Months Absorption Rate indicates a Normal Market

69. Strategies to Buy & Sell in 2014…

70. 2014
Top Buyer Negotiating
Strategy…Pay now or Pay more
later.

72. Monroe Lane, Princeton
Listed at $650,000
14 offers…

73. Weichert Buyer prevailed at
$740,000

74. Exact Comp…currently on the
market for $749,000…

75. 2. ‘I am going to time the
Market and buy/ sell at the
time when inventory &
buyer count is in my
favor…’
Source: MLS

76. Listing v Contracts: Dec – Jan 2013 Princeton

77. Listing v Contracts: Dec – Jan 2012, Lawrence Twp.

78. The Impact of
Pricing, Staging and Pre-Inspection
on the Salability of A Home..…

79. Negotiations are about
leverage
Maximize Yours
Source: MLS

80. Home Pricing
All Negotiations, including real estate, are all about negotiation and control.
Who is in control?

81. Effects of Right Pricing:
•
•
•
•
Promotes a sense of urgency among buyers
Promotes a sense of urgency among agents
Generates interest and showings
Sets the stage for multiple purchase offers in the
first 30 days
• Offers tend to be higher in relation to list price
• Controls negotiations
• Results in highest price in shortest time

82. Effects of Over Pricing:
•
•
•
•
•
Buyer excitement diminishes quickly
Extends time house is on the market
Results in price reductions
May attract “bargain hunters” and discounted offers
Results in a lower selling price
In the final stages of Over Pricing, after extended days-on-market
and several price reductions, a home begins to attract interest
from buyers who are looking to profit from sellers under duress.
These buyers, often referred to as bottom-feeders, tend to offer
deeply discounted prices for homes.
~Jeff Otteau

83. One Aim
Determining your best asking price.
Our unique method goes beyond the traditional assessment of comparable home prices
by anticipating changing marketing conditions in your area.

85. Hillsborough
The Price Trend Came up with a price of $520,000
We recommended a price of $499,000

86. Negotiations are about leverage, use the listing
price as yours…
Listed at $544,900
Reduced to $535,000
Reduced to $509,000
Reduced to $499,000
96 Days on Market
1 Offer
Sold for $490,000
The buyer had control

87. West Windsor
The Price Trend Came up with a price of $780,000
We recommended a price of $769,000

88. Negotiations are about leverage, use the listing
price as yours…
Listed at $769,000
8 Days on Market
11 Offers
Sold for $805,000
The seller had control

89. Princeton
Price Trend Price:
$1.275
Appraised by local
Appraiser prior to going on
market:
$1.275

90. Princeton
Put on market at
$1.1 million
8 offers
Sold in 8 days
$1.350 million
No contingencies

91. The Impact of Staging on the
Salability of Your Home..…

92. Home Staging
All Negotiations, including real estate, are all about negotiation and control.
Who is in control?

93. What is Home Staging?
The process of preparing homes for sale
regardless of price, location, or condition
to
achieve the maximum sales price in the
minimum marketing time.
The goal is to appeal to the broadest range of
BUYERS.

94. Clean & In Good Repair

95. “Wow…. I could live here!”

96. “The Investment in Home Staging
is Always Less than Your
First Price Reduction!”

97. Buyers Only Know What They See …

98. … Not The Way It Is Going To Be.

99. Home Staging
“The investment in home staging is always less than your first price reduction!”
*Based on a StagedHomes.com survey of over 400 homes across Canada & the Continental US prepared for sale by an Accredited Staging Professional (ASP™) from June 2007 through November 2007.

100. Home Staging
“The investment in home staging is always less than your first price reduction!”
The average increase
in sales price of an ASP
Staged vs. non-Staged
home is 6.9%
That is an additional
$31,050 on a
$450,000 sale
*Based on a StagedHomes.com survey of over 400 homes across Canada & the Continental US prepared for sale by an Accredited Staging Professional (ASP™) from June 2007 through November 2007.

101. The Impact of Inspection & Repairs
on the Salability of Your Home..…

102. Pre - Inspection
All Negotiations, including real estate, are all about negotiation and control.

103. What is
‘Pre-Inspection?’

104. Pre-Inspection
WHAT DOES PRE-INSPECTION INCLUDE?
The standard home inspector's report will review the
condition of the home's heating system, central air
conditioning system (temperature permitting), interior
plumbing and electrical systems; the roof, attic, and
visible insulation; walls, ceilings, floors, windows and
doors; the foundation, basement, and visible structure. It
will also advise if any potential environmental hazards
were observed.

105. Pre-Inspection
DOESN’T THE BUYER DO THE HOME
INSPECTION?

106. Pre-Inspection
• Why do a Pre-Inspection?
– Fix EVERYTHING before going on market
– Remove objections
– Reduce the risk of going ‘off market’ for a buyer
who ends up killing the deal
– Stay in Control

107. Its about control.

108. Real Estate Market Update
Weichert Financial Services
Dave McDermott
Gold Services Manager
NMLS #101160
Weichert Financial Services
646-921-1900
dmcdermott@weichertfinancial.com

109. The Financial Forecast…

110. Pop Quiz I
If you take out a $200,000 30 year fixed
payment loan from the bank, what is
your monthly payment?
A. $1802.
B. $1597.
C. $1310.
D. $998.

111. My Job is to Provide You the Highest
Level of Customer Service in the
Industry

112. My Team…

113. We put Jim’s Money on the line and
Guarantee our performance

114. I look forward to meeting with
you.

115. What will a real estate
company do for me?

116. This is
where
you win
or lose
the sale
Source: 2012 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers

117. Making Your Purchase as
Smooth as Possible
Buying a home involves the careful
coordination of many people.
Choosing a real estate team
you can count on will make the
process smoother and easier.

118. Thank you for your time
today.

119. Resource and Website List
www.trendmls.com
www.realtor.org
www.njar.com
www.Otteau.com
www.Pre-listing-inspection.com
www.Housemaster.com
www.Stagingshoppingcenter.com
www.realtytrac.com
www.njar.com/10k