Weichert Princeton's June 25 Real Estate Market Seminar

Weichert Princeton's June 25 Real Estate Market Seminar
Princeton Area Real Estate Market Update June 2017 Josh Wilton Managing Broker Weichert Realtors Princeton Office
“ Dave Ramsey Financial Guru When getting help with money, whether it is insurance, real estate or investments you should always look for someone with the heart of a teacher, not the heart of a salesman.
Agenda The Market: The Big Picture Understanding the Local Market(s) You’re Buying Into or Selling Out Of Process and Strategies for Buyers and Sellers Real Estate Market Update Agenda
Real Estate Market Update What are you hearing about the market?
The National Picture
Economic factors 6 Now ** 2013 2010 Gas per gallon (NY area) $2.45 $3.81 $2.73 Stock market (Dow Jones) 21,344 14,776 11,578 Avg. 30-year fixed rate 4.25%* 4.43% 4.71% Consumer confidence rating 117.7 76.2 63.4 Household income $56,516 $53,046 $49,276 Unemployment rate 4.5% 7.4% 9.3% Foreclosures 848,609 1,369 ,405 2,871,891 2010 to Current Comparisons
Listing Inventory 7 • BIG deal in 2016 • BIGGER deal in 2017 • Existing inventory levels down 11% over a year (nationally)
Median Seller Tenure In Home 8
First-Time Homebuyers make up Majority of 2017 Home buyers* 9 • 52% First Time Homebuyers • 61% Millennial Buyers (35 years and under) • Millennials skip over starter homes for move-up properties • NAR reported in 2016 17% of buyers under 25 year saved down payment monies within one year
The boom….The New Jersey MarketThe Statewide Picture
The New Jersey MarketThe Statewide Picture Source: NJAR 10K Research
The Local Market Real Estate is Local It’s Local to the County It’s Local to the Town It’s Local to the Price Point It’s Local to the Neighborhood/Development It’s Local to the Street Real Estate is Local
‘I can do my own local research online…’ You’re probably thinking….
Online Estimates If the estimate is accurate within 5% you’re talking about a $50,000 spread on a $500,000 estimate The home value could be anywhere from $475,000 - $525,000 And they’re only that close a third of the time
The boom….The Local MarketThe Local Picture
Mercer County Supply & Demand Price Trends Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast The Local Picture
Long Term Demand … Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast http://lwd.dol.state.nj.us/labor/lpa/dmograph/est/est_index.html Long Term Demand for Housing 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Long Term Demand … Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast http://lwd.dol.state.nj.us/labor/lpa/pub/factbook/merfct.pdf Long Term Demand for Housing
Source: NJAR 10K Research Data No jobs…no market
Source: NJAR 10K Research Data Mercer/ Middlesex County Market Drivers 1. Trains/Schools/Affordability 2. Schools/Trains/Affordability 3. Convenience/Town Center/Lifestyle 4. Affordability 5. Schools 6. Trains
Source: NJAR 10K Research DataSource: https://education.state.nj.us/pr/
Plainsboro Market Activity Single Family Homes Average Sale Price 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Middlesex MLS 2016 YTD 2017 $550,250*
Plainsboro Market Activity Single Family Homes Average Days on Market Source: Middlesex MLS 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2017 11 days
Plainsboro Market Activity Single Family Homes List to Sale Price Ratio Source: Middlesex MLS 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2017 99.7%
Plainsboro Market Activity Condos & Townhouses Average Sale Price Source: Middlesex MLS 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2017 $271,000
Plainsboro Market Activity Condos & Townhouses Average Days on Market Source: Middlesex MLS 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2017 70 days* YTD 2017 49 days w/pendings
Plainsboro Market Activity Condos & Townhouses List to Sale Price Ratio Source: Middlesex MLS 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2017 96.6%
Source: NJAR 10K Research DataSource: NJAR 10K Research Plainsboro, Year over Year, Jan – May 2014 2015 2016 2017 Listed 122 153 189 149 Pended 82 99 110 125 Sold 55 70 77 73 Avg List Price $426,563 $424,319 $509,000 $468,000
Source: NJAR 10K Research Data West Windsor Train Schools Lifestyle Affordability
West Windsor Market Activity Single Family Homes Source: Trend MLS 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
West Windsor Market Activity Source: Trend MLS 2012 2013 2014 20162015 2017
Open House Report
Source: NJAR 10K Research Data
West Windsor Market Activity SF DOM Source: Trend MLS 2012 2013 2014 20162015 2017
Source: NJAR 10K Research DataSource: NJAR 10K Research WW, Year over Year, Jan – May 2014 2015 2016 2017 Listed 246 250 288 250 Pended 156 163 176 170 Sold 90 100 112 114 Avg List Price $608,000 $609,843 $613,471 $633,369
Source: NJAR 10K Research DataSource: NJAR 10K Research East Windsor Train Schools Lifestyle Affordability
East Windsor Market Activity Single Family Homes Average Sale Price 2012 2013 2014 2016 Source: Trend MLS 2015 2017
East Windsor Market Activity Single Family Homes Average Days on Market Source: Trend MLS 2012 2013 2014 20162015 2017
East Windsor Market Activity Single Family Homes List to Sale Price Ratio Source: Trend MLS 2012 2013 2014 20162015 2017
East Windsor Market Activity Condos & Townhouses Average Sale Price Source: Trend MLS 2012 2013 2014 20162015 2017
East Windsor Market Activity Condos & Townhouses Average Days on Market Source: Trend MLS 2012 2013 2014 20162015 2016
East Windsor Market Activity Condos & Townhouses List to Sale Price Ratio Source: Trend MLS 2012 2013 2014 20162015 2017
Source: NJAR 10K Research DataSource: NJAR 10K Research EW, Year over Year, Jan – May 2014 2015 2016 2017 Listed 230 226 242 243 Pended 126 135 172 197 Sold 100 97 122 142 Avg List Price $241,839 $266,928 $261,421 $288,000
Source: NJAR 10K Research Data Lawrenceville Train Schools Lifestyle Affordability
Lawrenceville Market Activity Single Family Homes Average Sale Price 2012 2013 2015 Source: TrendMLS 2014 2016 2017
Lawrenceville Market Activity Single Family Homes Average Days on Market Source: TrendMLS 2012 2013 20152014 2016
Lawrenceville Market Activity Single Family Homes List to Sale Price Ratio Source: TrendMLS 2012 2013 20152014 2016 2017
Lawrenceville Market Activity Condos & Townhouses Average Sale Price Source: TrendMLS 201420132012 2015 2016 2017
Lawrenceville Market Activity Condos & Townhouses Average Days on Market Source: TrendMLS 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Lawrenceville Market Activity Condos & Townhouses List to Sale Price Ratio Source: TrendMLS 2013 20152014 20162012 2017
Source: NJAR 10K Research DataSource: NJAR 10K Research Law, Year over Year, Jan – May 2014 2015 2016 2017 Listed 292 276 288 288 Pended 153 135 170 200 Sold 102 103 121 152 Avg List Price $327,000 $404,000 $364,000 $378,000
Source: NJAR 10K Research DataSource: NJAR 10K Research Princeton Train Schools Lifestyle Affordability
Source: NJAR 10K Research DataSource: NJAR 10K ResearchSource: TrendMLS
Princeton Market Activity Source: TrendMLS
Source: NJAR 10K Research DataSource: NJAR 10K Research Pton, Year over Year, Jan – May 2014 2015 2016 2017 Listed 246 266 282 241 Pended 155 143 174 157 Sold 98 90 101 113 Avg List Price $1.105 $1.164 $1.257 $1.263
Source: NJAR 10K Research DataSource: NJAR 10K Research Ewing, Year over Year, Jan – May 2014 2015 2016 2017 Listed 264 288 327 291 Pended 111 145 197 216 Sold 105 104 167 183 Avg List Price $199,000 $222,000 $185,000 $213,000
Source: NJAR 10K Research DataSource: NJAR 10K Research Hamilton, Year over Year, Jan – May 2014 2015 2016 2017 Listed 764 951 836 784 Pended 351 512 491 549 Sold 279 402 374 443 Avg List Price $233,000 $240,000 $226,000 $237,000
Source: NJAR 10K Research DataSource: NJAR 10K Research Robbinsville, Year over Year, Jan – May 2014 2015 2016 2017 Listed 164 222 200 196 Pended 87 115 111 128 Sold 71 89 82 84 Avg List Price $381,000 $397,000 $410,000 $407,000
Source: NJAR 10K Research DataSource: NJAR 10K Research Hopewell, Year over Year, Jan – May 2014 2015 2016 2017 Listed 248 283 240 254 Pended 102 133 145 140 Sold 54 87 113 104 Avg List Price $594,974 $583,488 $682,000 $703,000
The Local Market Real Estate is Local It’s Local to the Town It’s Local to the Price Point It’s Local to the Neighborhood/Development It’s Local to the Street Real Estate is Local
Strategies for Buying and Selling in Today’s Market
Source: NJAR 10K Research Data When’s the best time to Buy/Sell? Source: Trend MLS
Lawrence 6/15/17 Style Active Listings Under Contract in 30 Days Absorption Rate New Listings in 30 Days Net Inventory Gain/Loss Price Reductions in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Closed Sales in 30 days All Styles 161 32 5 42 10 85 53% 29 Single Family 11 22 5 26 4 56 50% 19 Condo/ Townhouse 45 9 5 14 5 27 60% 9 Adult Community 6 1 6 2 1 1 17% 2
Lawrence 6/24/17 Style Active Listings Under Contract in 30 Days Absorption Rate 0-500 127 23 5.52 Single Family 500-700 22 5 4.4 Single Family 700-999 9 1 9 Single Family $1.0+ 9 0 99*
East Windsor Market Activity Style Active Listings Under Contract in 30 Days Absorption Rate New Listings in 30 Days Net Inventory Gain/Loss Price Reductions in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Closed Sales in 30 days All Styles 87 31 2.8 37 6 21 24.1% 31 Single Family 41 15 2.7 15 0 14 34.1 10 Condo/ Townhouse 41 13 3.2 19 6 7 17.1 18 Adult Community 5 3 1.7 3 0 0 0 3
Hightstown Market Activity Style Active Listings Under Contract in 30 Days Absorption Rate New Listings in 30 Days Net Inventory Gain/Loss Price Reductions in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Closed Sales in 30 days All Styles 32 4 8.0 12 8 10 31.3 7
Hamilton Market Activity Style Active Listings Under Contract in 30 Days Absorption Rate New Listings in 30 Days Net Inventory Gain/Loss Price Reductions in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Closed Sales in 30 days All Styles 381 83 4.6 134 51 17 4.5 99 Single Family 291 71 4 99 28 17 5.8 80 Condo/ Townhouse 74 10 7.4 30 20 0 0 15 Adult Community 16 2 8 5 3 0 0 4
West Windsor Market Activity Style Active Listings Pending in last 30 Days Absorption Rate New Listings in 30 Days Net Inventory Gain/Loss Price Reductions in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Closed Sales in 30 days All Styles 127 20 6.35 52 32 40 31.5 34 Single Family 103 15 6.9 34 19 37 36 23 Condo/ Townhouse 18 3 6 16 13 2 11 9 Adult Community 6 2 3 2 0 1 17 2 6/15/17
West Windsor Market Activity 6/24/17 Style Active Listings Pending in last 30 Days Absorption Rate SF 0-650 54 14 3.8 SF 650-799 27 9 3 SF 800-999 30 3 10
Open House Report
Robbinsville Market Activity 6-15-2017 Style Active Listings Under Contract in 30 Days Absorption Rate New Listings in 30 Days Net Inventory Gain/Loss Price Reductions in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Closed Sales in 30 days All Styles 115 29 4.0 35 6 2 1.7% 23 Single Family 55 15 3.7 11 -4 0 0.0% 9 Condo/ Townhouse 56 14 4.0 24 10 2 3.6% 14 Adult Community 4 0 99 0 0 0 0.0% 0
2017 Top Buyer Negotiating Strategies… 1.Pay Now or Pay More Later (based on core market, schools, trains and towns) 2.Don’t Wait to Offer on an ‘Over-Priced’ Home, its fun to negotiate 1:1 3.Use an Escalation Clause in High-Demand Markets & in multiple bid situations 4. ‘Thin Slice’ the Market. Get hyper local (ab rate, inventory, pricing etc)
Buyer Negotiation Tips in a Fast Market 1. Understand the process before you start shopping. 2. Have mortgage pre-approval from a local, respected, reliable lender 3. Put a significant amount in escrow if possible 4. Be as flexible as possible with your closing date 5. Remove as many contingencies as possible (inspection, appraisel, etc) 6. Use an Escalation Clause
Financial Services Carlos A. Machado Gold Services Manager Princeton Office NMLS #4384 Weichert Financial Services 908-307-8317 cmachado@weichertfinancial.com
•For Sellers: To make sure they have all the information they need to choose an offer •For Buyers: Buying Power & Documentation My Job…
As the seller, do I get to see the pre-approval letter? • The Pre-approval letter must be with all the offers. • Cash deals should be accompanied with a "proof of funds" which is a bank statement or letter from the bank or escrow agent • Make sure the letter is not a pre-qualification (this is only an opinion letter) • Let me help you review and confirm the pre-approvals you have when you go to select an offer
We will help you to find out your Purchase Power !
Your Mortgage Loan Checklist • Two Forms of identification (including 1 government photo ID. • Pay stubs for the past 30 days. • Your most recent last two years' W-2. • All pages of your signed personal tax returns, for the two most recent years. • All pages of your most recent bank statement. • (sellers, make sure that this was done)
Negotiating Your Purchase
Experience a smooth closing! • Don’t apply for credit. • Don’t be late with payments. • Don’t make a large purchase. • Don’t be late with documents. • Try not to change jobs. Following these tips can ease you down the road toward a smooth closing.
Weichert Financial Carlos Alberto Machado Gold Service Manager cmachado@weichertfinancial.com 908-307-8317 Princeton Office NMLS#4384
I look forward to meeting with you Carlos A. Machado Gold Services Manager Princeton Office NMLS #4384 Weichert Financial Services 908-307-8317 cmachado@weichertfinancial.com
2017 Top Seller Negotiating Strategies… 1.Stage it (Pretty it Up) 2.Fix it First (Pre Inspect) 3.Price it Right (Set the Market) 4.Stay in Control
All Negotiations, including real estate, are all about negotiation and control. Home Pricing Who is in control?
The process of preparing homes for sale regardless of price, location, or condition to achieve the maximum sales price in the minimum marketing time. The goal is to appeal to the broadest range of BUYERS. What is Home Staging?
Clean & In Good Repair
“Wow…. I could live here!”
Buyers Only Know What They See …
Home Staging *Based on a StagedHomes.com survey of over 400 homes across Canada & the Continental US prepared for sale by an Accredited Staging Professional (ASP™) from June 2007 through November 2007. The average increase in sales price of an ASP Staged vs. non-Staged home is 6.9% That is an additional $31,050 on a $450,000 sale “The investment in home staging is always less than your first price reduction!”
All Negotiations, including real estate, are all about negotiation and control. Home Staging Who is in control?
The Impact of Inspection & Repairs on the Salability of Your Home..… A Certified Home Inspector’s report will review: Condition of the home's HVAC, Plumbing and Electrical Systems The roof, attic, and visible insulation Walls, ceilings, floors, windows and doors The foundation, basement, and visible structure It will also advise if any potential environmental hazards were observed
• Why do a Pre-Inspection? – Fix/ Disclose/ Permit EVERYTHING before going on market – Removes buyer objections/ fears – Reduce the risk of going ‘off market’ for a buyer who ends up killing the deal – You stay in control Pre-Inspection
All Negotiations, including real estate, are all about negotiation and control. Pre - Inspection Who is in control?
The Impact of Your Initial List Price
• Promotes a sense of urgency among buyers & agents (fear of loss) • Generates interest and showings • Sets the stage for multiple offers in the first 30 days • Offers tend to be higher in relation to list price • Results in highest price in shortest time Effects of “Right” Pricing
• Buyer excitement diminishes quickly • Extends time house is on the market • Results in price reductions • May attract “bargain hunters” and discounted offers • Results in a lower selling price Effects of Over Pricing:
Negotiations are about leverage, use the listing price as yours… PTA suggested Market Value of $840,000 Ab Rate of 12.5 months Listed at $799,500 1 day on the market 4 Offers Bidding wrapping up today The seller had control West Windsor
Negotiations are about leverage, use the listing price as yours… 5 Lost Trail: listed by another Broker on 7/31/16 for $695,000. Decrease price on 9/24/16 to $650,000. Listing with Broker expired on 2/28/2017 after being on the market for 216 days. Wct listed their property on 4/7/2017 at $680,000. Used Professional photography & 3D Matterport, recommended contractor work to be done, used professional staging, Property went to pending on 4-22- 17------closed on 5-19-17 at $10,000 over listed price $690,000 after receiving multiple offers. Lawrence
Princeton 36 Mercer St. The Price Trend Analysis suggested Market Value of $1.250 We recommended listing at $1.1 million
Princeton 36 Mercer St. • Pre-inspection • Staged • Right Pricing Sold for $1.350 million, cash in 7 days. No contingencies.
Hamilton 1715 Silver Ct. Hamilton N J 08690 2 Bedroom 1.5 Baths Presented at $115,000 Listed 6/5/17--- 1 open house 6/10/17 received multiple offers starting 6/11/17 at full asking and then at over asking contract signed on 6/14/17---Closing date of 7/17/17
Hamilton Two other units on the market for sale in the same community-1 at $122,000 was on originally at $129,000 so far for 166 days. (listing broker placed this one photo on the Internet)
Hamilton ---the other at $112,900 so far on for 66 days (listing broker placed one photo on the MLS)
Negotiations are about leverage, use the listing price as yours… Listed at $544,900 Reduced to $535,000 Reduced to $509,000 Reduced to $499,000 96 Days on Market 1 Offer Sold for $490,000 The buyer had control
Fall Thru Analysis ~ Past 90 Days Reason for Fall Thru Total # Fall Thrus % of Total Fall Thrus Home Inspection 659 39.2% Buyer Financing 416 24.8% Buyer Changed Mind 185 11.0% Attorney Review 72 4.3% Appraisal 71 4.2% Contingency of buyer/seller house purchase 44 2.6% Short Sale Declined 39 2.3% Another offer (buyer) came in 30 1.8% Seller Changed Mind 23 1.4% HOA Docs or Board not approved 21 1.3% Buyer/Seller Passed Away or illness 14 0.8% Foreclosure or Bankruptcy 14 0.8% Title Issues 13 0.8% Deal Came Back together & Closed or Set to Close 11 0.7% Other 36 2.1% Unknown 31 1.8% Total 1679* 100%
Weichert Family of Companies What will a real estate company do for me?
Source: 2012 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers This is where you win or lose the sale
Making Your Purchase as Smooth as Possible Buying a home involves the careful coordination of many people. Choosing a real estate team you can count on will make the process smoother and easier.
Thank you for your time today
Resource and Website ListResource and Website List www.trendmls.com www.realtor.org www.njar.com www.Otteau.com www.Pre-listing-inspection.com www.Housemaster.com www.Stagingshoppingcenter.com www.realtytrac.com www.njar.com/10k www.keepingcurrentmatters.com https://education.state.nj.us/pr/

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