Sales and prices of real estate throughout Florida Keys

1. Volume 11, Number 3
Summer 2012
The Real Estate Newsletter Of The Florida Keys!
Coldwell Banker Schmitt Real Estate Co.
The Most Trusted Name in Florida Keys Real Estate Since 1955
Florida Keys Real Estate Market Comparison: *Source: Tri-Services Multiple
Listing Service (MLS) Board
Key Largo To Key West
1st Half 2012 vs. 2011
KEYS‐WIDE OVERVIEW Upper Keys Middle Keys Lower Keys Key West All Areas
(Lower Matecumbe (7 Mile Bridge (Bay Point (Key West to
Green (+)
Sales during the first half of 2012 increased +5% from the Red (‐) to Key Largo) to Long Key) to Big Pine) Shark Key) Keys‐Wide
1,131 recorded during that same period in 2011. Of note is Total Number of Sales 2% More 24% More 3% More 1% Less 5% More
that the number of sales for the first half of 2012 exceeded as of 6/30/12: 376 246 214 350 1,186
those of the January‐June period going back to 2006 when it Avg. Sales Price 5% Less 8% More 14% Less 1% More 2% Less
was 830. as of 6/30/12: $392K $403K $310K $504K $412K
$ Value of Sales
The $412K Average Sale Price (ASP) at the end of June was 4% Less 34% More 11% Less No Change 2% More
as of 6/30/12:
$147MM $99MM $66MM $176MM $489MM
‐2% less than the $420K for that period last year. The ASP (in millions $)
for the January‐June period, however, is up +2% from the Sale Price to
Original List Price 5% More 9% More 2% More 9% More 6% More
ASP at the end of 2011. Commencing in 2007, the ASP has 76.92% 79.61% 83.70% 87.08% 81.83%
as of 6/30/12:
declined year‐to‐year with the largest drop of ‐23% for 2009
Sale Price to
vs. 2010. Today’s $412K is a reduc on of ‐48% over the past Final List Price 2% More No Change 1% More 2% Less No Change
6 years, placing it in the 2002 and 2003 price range. This as of 6/30/12: 90.06% 90.95% 90.39% 93.89% 91.32%
reduc on in average sales price is, we believe, more the Avg. Days to Sell 1% More 17% Less 1% More 24% Less 11% Less
result of 75% of buyers purchasing proper es priced below as of 6/30/12: 285 253 241 254 258
$500K than it is a measure of a reduc on in the average Pending Transac ons 11% More 40% More 12% More 1% More 13% More
market value of property. For the first half of 2006, the as of 6/30/12: 438 295 244 369 1,346
Number of Proper es
peak ASP year at $805K, 33% of the buyers purchased 8% Less 13% Less 7% Less 10% Less 9% Less
For Sale
proper es priced below $500K. 1,028 597 587 818 3,030
as of 6/30/12:
The Dollar Value of Sales rose +2% to $489MM compared Avg. List Price
Proper es For Sale No Change 6% More 3% More 7% More 3% More
to $478MM for the first half of 2011 as a result of the +5% $769K $732K $558K $812K $733K
as of 6/30/12:
increase in total sales. This compensated for the ‐2% Months of Inventory 9% Less 30% Less 10% Less 9% Less 14% Less
reduc on in ASP. as of 6/30/12: 16 15 16 14 15
Average Days to Sell dropped ‐11% to 258 days from the 290 of the 2011 January ‐ June period.
The Sale Price‐to‐Original List Price (OLP/SP) increased +6% to 81.83% from 77.10% a year earlier. The OLP/SP compares the sale price of the property
to its list price at the me it first came on the market versus the list price at the me the contract was wri en. It provides a measure of the mismatch
between ini al list price of many sellers and the market price acceptable to buyers. This ra o will con nue to increase as the market con nues to
improve. The best this ra o has been was 89.73% in 1999.
The Sale Price‐to‐Final List Price (FLP/SP) of 91.32% did not change from 2011’s. The FLP/SP compares the sale price of the property to the list price of
the property at the me the contract was wri en instead of at the me the property was first listed. It reflects the average percentage of the final
listed price that buyers are paying for proper es that have sold. This ra o will also con nue to improve as the market does. The best this ra o has
been was 94.85% in 2004.
The margin between the OLP/SP (81.83%) and FLP/SP (91.32%) is almost 10%, which indicates, on average, a seller can an cipate up to a 10%
reduc on from their Original List Price to the Final List Price prior to receiving a buyer’s offer. It had reached +25% at the end of 2009. From 2004 to
2006, that margin averaged 9.3%. Addi onally, sellers and buyers today can expect the contract price, on average, to be ‐10% from the Final List Price.
From 2004‐2006, that average was ‐8.1%.
Pending Transac ons provide a forecast for closed sales over the next two months. Pendings are proper es under contract and in the process of
comple ng the contract con ngencies such as inspec ons and financing prior to closing. Keys‐wide Pending Transac ons increased +13% compared to
the 2011’s first half, going from 1,187 to 1,346 during 2012. That is the highest level since 1,464 during the first half of 2004. The low was 724 for the
first half of 2008.
The 3,030 Proper es For Sale on June 30, 2012 was a drop of ‐9% from 3,345 one year earlier, and is a ‐40% reduc on from the peak of 5,084 in March
of 2007. This is the single most important measure of the con nued improving market and we expect it will drop below 3,000 during Q3 of 2012.
The 15 Months of Inventory (MOI) from 18 at the end of June last year represents a ‐14% decline, con nuing down from 55 months at the
end of March 2008. 2012’s reduc on in MOI is the result of the con nuing decline in inventory of proper es for sale with an increase in
number of sales. MOI provides a measure of the rate of sales versus the supply of proper es, otherwise known some mes as the
“absorp on rate.” (con nued on page 4)
Visit www.RealEstateFloridaKeys.com

2. Highlights and Market Trends
1st Half 2012 vs. 2011
• Average Sale Price: Down –2% to $422,924
• Sales: UP +5%
• Dollar Volume of Sales: UP +2%
• Pending Sales: UP +13%
• Sale Price to Original List Price Margin: From 38% in December 2009 to 19% Today
• The Margin of Sales Price to Final List Price has compressed from 13% in December 2009 to 8% Today
• Lis ngs: Down –40% from 5,084 in March 2007 to 3,030 today which is –10% from first of the year.
• Distressed Property Sales (Bank Owned & Short Sales)
− Down from a peak of 45% of the number of sales in Q3 2010 to 23% of the number of sales
− Lis ngs down from 26% of all lis ngs mid‐year 2009 to 12% of all lis ngs as of June 30, 2012
• Ac vity by Property Type: WF = Waterfront; NWF = Non‐Waterfront for Stock Island North
(We will not differen ate between WF and NWF in Key West as the numbers of sales of WF are too few.)
− Single Family: Keys‐wide sales are down –2% with 68% of the homes sold being waterfront from Stock
Island to Key Largo (outside Key West) Average Sales Price is WF $667K; NWF $226K. In Key West it is $636K.
− Condominium: Keys‐wide sales did not change with 58% of the condominiums sold being waterfront. Average
Sales Price outside Key West is WF $346K; NWF $190K. In Key West it is $336K.
− Townhomes: Keys‐wide sales are up +16% with 51% of the townhomes sold being waterfront.
Average Sales Price outside Key West is WF $376K; NWF $185K. In Key West it is $379K.
− Duplex and Half‐Duplex: Keys‐wide sales are down –10% with 66% of the duplex and half duplexes sold being
waterfront. Average Sales Price outside Key West is WF $417K; NWF $170K. In Key West it is $459K.
− Land: Keys‐wide sales rose +45% with 47% of the land sold being waterfront. Average Sales Price outside Key
West is WF $198K; NWF $41K. In Key West it is $135K.
• Sale Price for ALL Property Types:
− Less than $500K: Sales up +6% = 897 or 75% of all sales
− $500K ‐$999K: Sales up +7% = 225 or 19% of all sales
− $1MM—$1.9MM: Sales No Change = 56 or 5% of all sales
− $2MM+: Sales down –30% = 14 or 1% of all sales
Conclusions/Projec ons:
• Inventory con nues its decline to levels that will sustain property price apprecia on in the near future.
• The increase in number of sales occurred below $1 Million with the same or fewer sales above that mark.
94% of all sales are below $1 Million and 75% are below $500,000 reflec ve of the economy, interest rates, and
insurance constraints. The $500,000‐and‐below market is very compe ve with mul ple offers being very
common with much fewer choices for buyers.
• Distressed proper es con nue their decline as a significant factor in the market, however, their influence on
price con nues to be reflected in flat average sales prices.
• The Sales Price to List Price margins are compressing, which reflects growing pressure on future price increases.
• Land sales and specula on become even more of a market factor than they were in the first half of 2012 when in
the Lower Keys, in par cular, the +114% increase in land sales significantly contributed to the –14% decline in
average sale price.
Visit www.RealEstateFloridaKeys.com

3. ®
THE PREVIEWS DIFFERENCE
Coldwell Banker Previews Interna onal® has been the na onal leader in luxury real estate sales for 80 years.
On average, Previews handles over $70 million in luxury home sales every day. Luxury‐cer fied, Coldwell Bank‐
er Previews Property Specialists par cipated in more than 13,500 transac on sides of homes priced at
$1,000,000 or more in 2011.
Coldwell Banker Schmitt’s Percentage Coldwell Banker Schmi con nues to be the Florida Keys’ leader in
of Previews Sales Keys-Wide luxury property lis ngs and sales with 54 percent more ac ve luxury
lis ngs and, since 2008, 76 percent more luxury sales than the
number‐two company. Addi onally, Coldwell Banker Schmi
Previews agents have sold 48 percent more of their luxury lis ngs
during that me period than has the number‐two company.
Each Coldwell Banker Schmi Previews agent has the extensive
experience and produc on requirements for cer fica on as a
Coldwell Banker Previews Property Specialist.
Previews luxury proper es are residen al proper es priced within
the top 10 percent of the list price range. For the Florida Keys
market that threshold begins at $1,300,000, and those homes reflect
the highest quality found in true luxury homes. As such, the property
must stand out for excep onal quality and style of construc on,
condi on and décor that matches the pres gious image of the Previews Interna onal program.
Enlist a Coldwell Banker Schmi
Previews Specialist to discover
Florida Keys Previews Properties ($1.3M+)
how our exper se, heritage and July-June 2011 to 2012 Vs. July-June 2010 to 2011
market‐leading posi on can Upper Keys Middle Keys Lower Keys Key West All Areas
Green (+) (Lower Matecumbe (7 Mile Bridge (Bay Point (Key West to
make a difference in your next Red (‐) to Key Largo) to Long Key) to Big Pine) Shark Key) Keys‐Wide
sale or acquisi on of a luxury Total Number of Sales 11% More 11% More 29% Less 22% Less 7% Less
property. as of 6/30/12: 21 10 5 18 54
Avg. Sales Price 3% Less 36% More 20% Less 7% More 5% More
as of 6/30/12: $1,843,547 $2,406,700 $1,808,000 $1,986,194 $1,992,092
The chart on the right compares
$ Value of Sales
the sale of proper es for $1.3M+ as of 6/30/12: 7% More 51% More 43% Less 16% Less 3% Less
$38.7MM $24.0MM $9.0MM $35.7MM $107.5MM
during the July‐June 2011/2012 (in millions $)
to that same one year period in Sale Price to
14% More 3% More 7% Less 5% More 3% More
Original List Price
2010/2011 which provides a as of 6/30/12: 80.47% 75.36% 68.26% 88.75% 78.21%
perspec ve of the Keys Previews Sale Price to
Final List Price 2% More 1% More 6% More 4% Less 1% More
market . Updates will follow in 88.72% 89.17% 85.74% 86.95% 87.65%
as of 6/30/12:
succeeding newsle ers. Avg. Days to Sell 38% Less 16% Less 1% Less 45% Less 26% Less
as of 6/30/12: 261 310 421 288 320
Pending Transac ons 50% Less 11% More 29% Less 22% Less 29% Less
as of 6/30/12: 13 10 5 18 46
COLDWELL BANKER SCHMITT REAL ESTATE CO.

4. (con nued from page 1) More Florida Keys History
The Average Listed Price (ALP) of $733K during the first half is up +3% from last year. The ALP peak was $990K at the end of 2007,
having decreased ‐26% since then.
MARKET AREA DETAILS
Number of Sales: With the excep on of Key West, off ‐1% with 350 sales versus 354 last year, all other Keys Markets experienced
increased sales. The Middle Keys led being up +24% to 246 from 199 in 2011. The Lower Keys & Upper Keys were up +3% to 214 and
+2% with 376, respec vely, compared to 208 and 370 in the first half of 2011.
Average Sale Price: The Middle Keys rose +8% to $403K compared to $372K in 2011. Key West increased +1% going from $497K to
$504K. The Lower Keys ASP decreased ‐14% to $310K versus $359K last year and the Upper Keys ASP declined ‐5% to $392K from
$414K in 2011.
Dollar Value of Sales: The Middle Keys increased +34% to $99MM versus the $74MM in 2011 as a result of the large increase in number
of sales and a higher ASP. Key West remained the same with $176MM. The Lower Keys was down ‐11% to $66MM from $74MM in Roy M. Cohn wintering in Duck Key
2011 due to the ‐14% decline in ASP. The Upper Keys was off ‐4% to $147MM from $153MM in 2011 caused by the ‐5% drop in ASP. in 1960. Cohn was responsible for
Julius & Ethel Rosenberg’s espionage
Pending Sales: Middle Keys Pending Sales increased significantly, +40% to 295 vs. 211 during the first half of 2011. Lower Keys Pendings convic ons in 1951. Joe McCarthy
improved +12% to 244 from 217 last year. 438 Pending Sales in the Upper Keys was +11% higher than 395 in 2011. Key West Pending chose him over Robert Kennedy as
his chief counsel.
Sales were up just +1% to 369 from 364.
Average Days to Sell: Key West declined ‐24% to 254 versus 333. The Middle Keys also was down ‐17% to 305 compared to 253 during the first half of 2011. Both the
Upper and Lower Keys markets rose slightly by +1% to 285 days and 241 days, respec vely. We con nue to believe that all sale periods are ar ficially low as they do not
accurately account for the property being previously listed with one or more brokers prior to being sold. Addi onally Short Sales have impacted the Days to Sell as some
have taken two years to finally sell.
Number of Proper es For Sale: All market areas had a reduc on in proper es listed for sale. The Middle Keys had the largest decline, ‐13% to 597 from 687 last year and
830 in 2010. Key West was next, ‐10% with 818 compared to 909 for the first half of 2011 and 1,021 in 2010. The Upper Keys with 1,028 lis ngs vs. 1,117 a year ago was
down ‐8%, a er totaling 1,338 at the end of June 2010. Lower Keys proper es for sale fell by ‐7% to 587 from 632 in 2011. There were 580 proper es for sale in the
Lower Keys at the end of the first half of 2010.
Months of Inventory (MOI): MOI declined in all areas with the Middle Keys off ‐30% to 15 MOI from 21 last year, and the Lower Keys ‐10% to 16 vs. 18 last year. The
Upper Keys registered ‐9% to 16 compared to the 18 it had one year ago. Key West was the lowest at ‐9% to 14 MOI compared to 15 for the same period in 2011.
Average List Price (ALP): Key West with $812K increased +7% from $757K last year and $872K in 2010. The Middle Keys rose +6% to $732K from $691K in both 2011 and
2010. The Lower Keys was up +3% to $558K from $541K in 2011. $593K was its ALP in 2010. Upper Keys List Price did not change at $769K. It was $831K in 2010.
What do these Numbers Forecast?
The three most important market indicators are lis ngs, sales and pendings. Lis ngs con nue to decline, while Sales and Pendings have been steadily increasing, indica ng
the Keys real estate market con nues on its posi ve upward path. As the inventory con nues to decrease and sales increase, buyers will have less choice and sellers will
regain control of pricing leading to increasing prices. We are regularly experiencing mul ple offers on well‐priced proper es because buyers have begun to feel urgency as
they recognize the market forces described above.
11050 Overseas Hwy. — Main Office
Marathon, FL 33050
Toll Free: 800‐366‐5181
Office: 305‐743‐5181
Fax: 305‐743‐7012
CURRENT RESIDENT OR:
If you would like a FREE Compara ve Market
Analysis, contact one of our five offices at the toll
free numbers below. We are “The Most Trusted
Name In Florida Keys Real Estate.”
Key Largo (877) 289‐0035 Islamorada (800) 207‐4160
Marathon (800) 366‐5181 Big Pine (800) 488‐3050
Key West (800) 598‐7727
Visit www.RealEstateFloridaKeys.com