SYSTEMS THINKING: Lessons From The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook by Senge, Kleiker, Roberts, Ross and Smith

Systems ThinkingLessons From The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook by Senge, Kleiker,Roberts, Ross and Smith Presentation by Joanna Beltowska @jbeltowska Amy Rae @elucidateamy©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE.

Oh hai again!©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 2

All of these things are systems.©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 3

Are you looking at a system or a bunch of stuff? Can you identify the individual parts? 1 Do the parts affect each other? 2 Do the parts together produce an effect that is 3 different from the effect of each part on its own? Does the effect persist in a variety of 4 circumstances? x©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 4

Ping pong is a system. IT HAS IDENTIFIABLE INDIVIDUAL PARTS. PART 2 PART 1 PART 3 PART 4©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 5

Ping pong is a system. THE PARTS AFFECT EACH OTHER. LAWS OF PHYSICS RULES OF THE GAME LAWS OF PHYSICS©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 6

Ping pong is a system. TOGETHER, THESE PARTS CREATE A UNIQUE EFFECT. LAWS OF PHYSICS RULES OF THE GAME LAWS OF PHYSICS©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 7

Ping pong is a system. THIS EFFECT CAN BE REPLICATED IN MULTIPLE SITUATIONS. LAWS OF PHYSICS RULES OF THE GAME LAWS OF PHYSICS©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. X 1, X 2, X 3... 8

Finding and analyzing systems is difficult work.The following pages will introduce systems thinking,a set of tools and methods to help you along the way.©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 9

WARNING: Systems always surprise us. Don’t fret! This way for the three main reasons why.©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 10

rs inke h rt ea o n - linea rWe are lin in a n wo r l d.©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 11

In a nonlinear relationship, the cause does not produce aproportional effect. is range represents the optimal amount of fertilizer to apply, and if too much is applied, the yield might even go down.Crops Yield Fertilizer Application©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 12

Reality is made up of circles, but we see straight lines. Herein lies the beginnings of our limitation as systems thinkers. Peter Senge©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 13

The Linearity Double Dunk Formal education rewards Language shapes perception. linear thinking. Research with young children Western languages are biased indicates that we have towards a linear world view latent skills as systems because of their thinkers that are subject-to-verb undeveloped, even object structure. This repressed, by formal structure trains our education. brains to link together thoughts in the same way.©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 14

In the real world, boundaries don’t exist. There are onlyboundaries of thought, perception and social agreement.©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 15

BOUNDED RATIONALITYIn decision making, rationality of individuals is limited bythe information they have. Fishermen are not aware of the total number of fish in the ocean or how many fish others harvest. This is a typical example of a dilemma referred to as “The Tragedy of the Commons” - a situation in which a group of individuals act rationally in their own self-interest and deplete a shared limited resource.©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 16

E xp li ci t kn ow le dg eMENTAL MODELSIndividuals are also inhibited by their mental models - theimages, assumptions, and stories which we carry in ourminds of ourselves, other people, institutions, and everyaspect of the world. Taci t know ledge©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 17

Systems fool us by presentingthemselves as a single event. The stock market crashed in 1929, making headlines. This single event was overemphasized, and other, more important, events influencing the Great Depression were less salient, like the 200,000 factory workers being replaced by machines and farmland value falling by 40%.©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 18

Events accumulate into dynamic patterns of behavior. e Great Depression begins Wheat prices per bushel in dollars 32.5 21.5 10.5 0 1900 1910 1920 1930©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 19

Long-term behavior provides clues to the underlyingsystem structure.System structures are created by the choices people makeconsciously or unconsciously over time.In systems thinking, structure is the pattern ofinterrelationships among the key components of the system.That might include hierarchy and process, but it alsoincludes attitudes and perceptions, the quality of products,the ways in which decisions are made, etc. e winter of 1929 was a so called “long wave” winter. Long wave theory, a subset of systems thinking, says that economic crisis come and go in cycles.©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 20

Researchers at MIT came up with ways to understand andcategorize different types of systems.©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 21

With practice, these tools can help you unpack complex problems in a flash. Think of these tools as your diagnostic repertoire.©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 22

Links and LoopsT H E F O UND A T I O N O F SYST E M S M O D E L I NG A LINK:Links are arrows that represent influence between elementsin a system. NUMBER OF TIME SPENT LOLCATS ON THE SITELoops are combinations of links that that reveal Cause Eectinterdependencies; In a loop, every element is both thecause and the effect. A LOOP:Example: The more lolcat pictures onicanhazcheeseburger.com, the more time people spendthere, commenting on lolcat pictures, and becoming inspiredto create more. (Because we all know lolcats are awesomelyhilarious!) NO. OF TIME SPENT LOLCATS ON THE SITE©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 23

Balancing and Reinforcing LoopsT W O T YPE S O F L O O PS T H A T O CCUR F RE Q UE NT L YBalancing loops occur in systems that are self-regulating. US ARMSThe system has an inherent goal, and when that goal isn’tmet, intense pressure is applied to reach it. (R) NEED TO BUILD THREAT TO US ARMS SOVIET UNIONExample: Your refrigerator’s goal is to keep food at a chilly35 degrees. When a half-eaten pizza enters, the refrigeratordecreases the temperature to cool the warm pizza, bringing THREAT NEED TO BUILDthe refrigerator back to equilibrium. TO US SOVIET ARMSReinforcing loops occur in systems that steadily grow SOVIET ARMSand/or collapse over time.Example: The Nuclear Arms Race between the US and the NUCLEAR STOCKPILES 1945 - 2005Soviet Union during the cold war is a typical example of a Exponential growthreinforcing loop. The US created the first atomic bomb in 45,000 SOVIET USA 40,0001945. The Soviet Union followed in 1949. By the 1950s both 35,000sides had enough nuclear power to obliterate each other. 30,000 25,000The system then declined when both stockpiles decreased in 20,000the 1990s. 15,000 10,000 5,000Sources: Natural Resources Defense Council (1946-2002 data), 0Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (2003-2006 data) 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 24

Balancing and Reinforcing Loops: TemplatesA D A PT E D F RO M T H E F I F T H D I SCI PL I NE B Y PE T E R M . S E NGE . US E T H E S E T E M PL A T E S A S A S T A RT I NG PL A CE F O R S YS T E M A NA L YS I S .REINFORCING LOOP TEMPLATE BALANCING LOOP TEMPLATE Optional intermediate element (might Target or goal be a consequence of performance) Actual performance (desired performance, either (that you measure or known or unknown to you)Actual performance observe; often a problem(that you measure or symptom)observe, which you can seegrowing or declining) Growing action (R) (what you do, or someone else does, to generate growth or decline) (B) Optional Gap (discrepancy between intermediate desired and actual element (might be a performance, either visible to Optional intermediate element driver of performance) you as a shortfall, evident as (might be a driver of performance and/or a consequence of action) a need, or felt as a pressure) Corrective action (can be a quick x or a driver of your performance)©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 25

Causal Loop DiagramsH E L PI NG YO U T E L L A M O RE RO B UST ST O RYCausal loop diagrams combine multiple loops and reveal - WEAK ORmore detail about the system. A “plus” indicates that the + UNCERTAIN PERCEIVED ECONOMICelements change in the same direction while a “minus” - SOLVENCY OF BANK CONDITIONSindicates that the elements change in opposite directions. - +Example: The bank panic during the Great Depression was SOLVENCY (+) (+) FEAR OF OF BANK BANK FAILUREcaused by a public fear of bank failure. This caused people towithdraw their personal savings, reducing bank solvency, +which in turn drove private withdrawals of funds further in a + TENDENCY TO BANK RESERVES WITHDRAWspiraling, reinforcing, loop. ON HAND PERSONAL SAVINGS - Casual loop diagram describing the bank panic during the Great Depression (adapted from Beyond Training Wheels by John Sterman).©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 26

System ArchetypesA PE RI O D I C T A B L E O F T H E M O ST CO M M O N SYST E M B E H A VI O RSIf we think of each system as a story, system archetypesare the classic stories that we keep seeing over and overagain. By measuring our systems against these classics, we Problem CURRENT STAFFING Fix symptom PROFITS CUTScan quickly identify the dominating behavioral patterns.For example, “Fixes That Backfire”: A company is strugglingwith profitability (the problem symptom) and decides to letsome people go to reduce costs (the fix). Profitability initiallyimproves, but the loss of experienced employees as well as adrop in morale impact productivity negatively (the PRODUCTIVITYunintended consequence). Unintended consequences PROBLEM SYMPTOM “Fix” applied Original threshold of tolerance©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 27

Archetypes: Comparison ChartA D A PT E D F RO M T H E F I F T H D I SCI PL I NE B Y PE T E R M . S E NGEBALANCING LOOP REINFORCING LOOP “FIXES THAT BACKFIRE”There is a movement toward a target (without An important variable accelerates up (or down), A problem symptom alternately improves (thedelay), or else oscillation, hovering around a single with exponential growth or collapse. problem variable goes down) and deterioratestarget (with delay). (the problem goes up, worse than before).“LIMITS TO GROWTH” “SHIFTING THE BURDEN” “TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS”There is a growth (sometimes dramatic growth), The reliance of the short-term fix grows stronger, Total activity grows, but the gains from individualleveling off or falling into decline. while efforts to fundamentally correct the real activities are dropping. problem grow weaker. The problem symptom alternately improves and deteriorates.“ACCIDENTAL ADVERSARIES”Each side’s performance either declines or stayslevel and low, while enmity or competitivenessincreases over time.©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 28

Stocks And FlowsA D A PT E D F RO M T H I NK I NG I N SYST E M S B Y D O NE L L A M E A D O W SStock and flow diagrams are another way to analyzesystems. Stocks are tangible and measurable, and they Inowchange over time through the actions of flows. Stocks act asbuffers, delays or shock absorbers in systems.Example: Imagine you’ve decided to take a bath. You begin Stockto fill your bathtub with hot water and go read while you’rewaiting for the tub to fill. When you come back, the water isa bit too hot for your liking. To get the temperature downquickly, you open up the drain and turn the cold water fauceton. Your bathtub is now a simple system with one stock (thewater in the tub), one inflow (the cold water) and oneoutflow (the water that is leaving through the drain). WATER IN BATH TUB COLD WATER DRAINED WATER Inow Stock Outow©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 29

Systems Analysis GuidelinesT H E SYST E M S T O O L K I T I N A CT I O NAll models are simplifications of the real world. It’s up toyou to decide how much detail to illustrate.There are no right answers. Mapping out a system willreveal a set of potential actions you may take. As youbecome more a more proficient systems thinker, you’ll beginto recognize the consequences of different interventions.Cause and effect will not be closely related in time andspace. Dont look for leverage near the symptoms of yourproblem.Good results in a complex system depend on bringing in asmany perspectives as possible. Consider who else you canbring in to make your system model more informed.Use your intuition when you work with archetypes. Its notcritical that you pick the right archetype - as long as it ringstrue with your story, its good enough as a starting point.©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 30

A good systems thinker avoids traps by looking for multiplelevels operating simultaneously. LEVERAGE FOR LASTING CHANGE MENTAL MODELS SYSTEMS PATTERNS OF BEHAVIOR EVENTS ADAPTED FROM THE FIFTH DISCIPLINE FIELDBOOK BY PETER M. SENGE©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 31

Good Systems Thinkers Make Good StrategistsA ST O RY O F H O W ST RA T E GY D E F E A T E D 1: 2 5 O D D SOn October 26, 1597, the Korean admiral Yi Sun-sinfamously defeated the Japanese fleet of 333 units with only Admiral Yi: a badass13 ships at his disposal. systems thinker.Yi strategically chose the Myeongnyang Strait as the arenafor his last stand with the Japanese based on its strongcurrents, narrowness, rough tides and surrounding shadowyhillsides. By reading the environment as a system, admiral Yiused it to his advantage.No other naval battle involving fleets of this size, hasresulted in a victory for such a proportionately small force,also making it one of the greatest military achievements inworld history.©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 32

Cancer (?) The challenges society faces are growing. Measles (1963) Smallpox (1796)©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 33

In order to meet those challenges, we need to explore newways of thinking. Systems thinking is the cornerstone ofhow adaptive organizations think about their world.©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 34

Designing a Systems WorkshopPUT T I NG SYST EMS T H I NK I NG I NT O PRA CT I CETackling a huge problem? Systems analysis will helpelucidate multiple sides of the issue and identify areas ofopportunity. Workshops or brainstorms are great forumsfor this type of analysis. Below is a (very) general overviewof a good workshop:Study up: Learn your links, loops and archetypes. Forpractice, sketch out systems diagrams of popular problems,like Global Warming or Poverty.Event Prep: Invite stakeholders from all levels of theorganization; Unique perspectives will make the analysismore robust. Choose a room with a white board and bringyour markers! Facilitation: In general, spend 1/4 of the time introducingthe concept and creating a safe space for open discussion.Spend 1/2 of the time analyzing the problem on the white Darth suggests you use the “Five Whys” to help the group discover deeperboard with the Systems Toolkit, and spend the remaining 1/4 interactions between elements.looking for possible interventions in your diagram.©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 35

“It’s like the old expression, ‘You are what you eat’.If you start thinking differently, you see things differently.And all your actions start to change.”- Pat Walls, FedEx Are you ready to switch to a loops-based diet?©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE. 36

Special thanks to our mentors and friends at

Systems ThinkingLessons From The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook by Senge, Kleiker,Roberts, Ross and Smith Presentation by Joanna Beltowska @jbeltowska Amy Rae @elucidateamy©2 011 JOAN N A B ELTO WSK A AN D AMY RAE.

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SYSTEMS THINKING: Lessons From The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook by Senge, Kleiker, Roberts, Ross and Smith

by Joanna Beltowska on Sep 21, 2011

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SYSTEMS THINKING: Lessons From The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook by Senge, Kleiker, Roberts, Ross and Smith — Presentation Transcript