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Indian Gas Scenario

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  • 1.  
  • 2. THE ENERGY CHALLENGE TOTAL COMMERCIAL ENERGY REQUIREMENTS - FOUR FOLD GROWTH DRAFT REPORT - INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY PLANNING COMMISSION 1620 1333 2031-32 1248 1060 2026 - 27 718 653 2016-17 537 505 2011-12 394 385 2006-07 8% GDP 7% GDP TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY (MMTOE) YEAR
  • 3. THE ENERGY CHALLENGE ELECTRICITY REQUIREMENTS - FIVE TO SIX FOLD INCREASE DRAFT REPORT - INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY PLANNING COMMISSION 131424 131424 2003-04 424744 368592 2021-22 778095 627088 2031-32 574748 480694 2026 - 27 305623 276143 2016-17 219992 206757 2011-12 152610 149806 2006-07 8% GDP 7% GDP INSTALLED CAPACITY - MW YEAR
  • 4. THE ENERGY CHALLENGE REQUIREMENT OF COAL AND GAS – POWER SECTOR NON POWER GAS DEMAND = 227 MMSCMD TO 274 MMSCMD GAS DEMAND OVER NEXT 25 YEARS = 528 MMSCMD TO 678 MMSCMD 8% 7% 8% 7% 8% 7% 404 301 134 100 1478 1096 2031-32 268 208 89 69 1133 885 2026-27 175 145 58 48 814 678 2021-22 41 18 13 36 17 13 GAS (MMTOE) 124 108 493 455 2016-17 54 51 375 366 2011-12 39 39 318 318 2003-04 GAS (MMSCMD) COAL (MMT) YEAR
  • 5. BOMBAY HIGH SOUTH BASSEIN ACCELERATED DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE LNG IMPORTS MAR -- 04 INDIAN GAS SECTOR – MAJOR MILESTONES KG FINDS MYANMAR FIND
  • 6. INDIAN GAS MARKET OVERVIEW
    • DOMESTIC SUPPLIES - 74 MMSCMD
    • IMPORTS (LNG) - 18 MMSCMD
    • DEMAND POTENTIAL - 150 MMSCMD
    • MAJOR PLAYERS
      • E&P -
    • - ONGC, OIL, RELIANCE, BRITISH GAS, CAIRN, NIKO, GSPC
      • LNG -
    • - PETRONET LNG LTD (JV OF PSU,s, GDF, ADB)
    • - SHELL HAZIRA LNG LTD (SHELL, TOTALFINA-ELF)
    • - RATNAGIRI PROJECT
      • GAS TRANSMISSION & MARKETING - GAIL (INDIA) LTD
      • REGIONAL / RETAIL - MGL, IGL, GCC, GSPC, AGC, TNGCL, PLAYERS BGL, GSPL, GGL & OTHERS
    92 MMSCMD
  • 7. GAS END USE PATTERN CONSUMPTION - 92 MMSCMD
  • 8. TYPICAL PIPELINE SYSTEMS Supply to small consumers & residential users Supply to medium scale consumers & feed to distribution systems Supply to regional system or large customer Others Steel or HDPE Pipe Steel Steel Material of construction Down to 2” Up to 22” 24” to 48” Diameter 10 to 0.025 15 to 40 40 to 70 Typical Pressure Range (Bar) DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM REGIONAL TRANSMISSION SYSTEM MAIN TRANSMISSION SYSTEM
  • 9.  
  • 10. CROSS BORDER – GAS PIPELINES
    • MYANMAR- INDIA GAS PIPELINE
  • 11.
    • LENGTH: 1500 KM
    • DIAMETER: 36”
    • NO CROSS BORDER AND POLITICAL ISSUES WITH BANGLADESH GOVERNMENT.
    • ACCESS TO POTENTIAL CUSTOMERS IN NORTH-EAST INDIA, NORTH - BENGAL AND BIHAR
    • OPPORTUNITY OF CONNECTING TRIPURA AND OTHER NE GAS FIELDS.
    • LONGEST AMONG ON-LAND PIPELINE OPTIONS.
    • HILLY TERRAIN.
    ON-SHORE PIPELINE : MYANMAR – NE - INDIA
  • 12.
    • Offshore Pipelines
      • - Shallow water (200~250 m)
      • - Deep water (1560 m)
      • - Deep water (2210 m)
    • B. Onshore Pipelines
      • - Via Chittagaon - Cox’s Bazaar (Bangladesh)
      • - Via Tripura (India) - Dhaka (Bangladesh)
      • - Through North-East Indian territory
    • C. LNG Marine Route
    • D. CNG Marine Route
    Within EEZ of Bangladesh Outside EEZ of Bangladesh OPTIONS OF GAS EVACUATION FROM MYANMAR TO INDIA – 8 NOS.
  • 13. BLOCK A-1 SITTWE LANDFALL POINT MYANMAR MYAYNGU KYAN PARADIP HALDIA ALT-I( VIA CHATTGAON/ COX’S BAZAR) ALT-II VIA TRIPURA OFF-SHORE SHALLOW WATER OFF-SHORE DEEP WATER (WITHIN EEZ) OFF-SHORE DEEP WATER (OUTSIDE EEZ) ONSHORE ROUTE VIA. BANGLADESH ONSHORE VIA. N E INDIA LNG OPTION CNG OPTION PROPOSED JAGDISHPUR- HALDIA PIPELINE Gaya Jagdishpur MYANMAR- INDIA GAS PIPELINE OPTIONS OF GAS EVACUATION FROM MYANMAR TO INDIA
  • 14. Iran – Pakistan- India Gas P ipeline
  • 15. INDICATIVE IRAN-PAKISTAN- INDIA PIPELINE ROUTE AC-1 JAISALMER BHONG ASSALUYAH Assaluyah – Pakistan Border 1100 KMs Pakistan Border – AC1 750 KMs AC1 – India Border 250 KMs Total Distance 2100KMS Indicative Pipeline Route N
  • 16.
        • Gas Demand for India: 60-90 MMSCMD
        • Gas Demand for Pakistan:30-60MMSCMD
        • Pipeline size: 56”
        • Pipeline Length: 2100 KMS
        • Capital Cost: Approx.Rs. 29000 Crores.
        • O&M Cost: 2% of Capital Cost
        • Transit Fee: to be decided as per the
        • Energy Charter Treaty (ECT)
    SALIENT FEATURES
  • 17. CROSS BORDER GAS PIPELINES TURKMENISTAN - AFGHANISTAN - PAKISTAN GAS PIPELINE
  • 18. PROPOSED ROUTE OF TAP PIPELINE
  • 19. SALIENT FEATURES
    • GAS SUPPLY : 90 MMSCMD
      • PIPELINE SIZE: 56”
      • PIPELINE LENGTH: 1700 KMS
      • CAPITAL COST: APPROX. $ 3.3 bn
      • TRANSIT FEE: AS PER INTERNATIONAL NORMS
  • 20. Exploration Status Poorly Explored Initiated Unexplored Well Explored
  • 21.
    • Only 18% of the total 3.14 million sq. km. has been extensively explored
    • < 25% of total prognosticated resources established
    • Reserves estimated only in 15 of the 26 basins
    • Low Drilling Density
    Exploration Status
  • 22.
    • The exploration and production activities were carried out in various sedimentary blocks in India by NOCs on nomination basis till formulation NELP and ML policies
    • After formulation of NELP and ML policies the blocks of sedimentary basins were awarded for Exploration and production activities to NOCs as well as Private Oil Companies on competitive bidding.
  • 23. Status of Exploration NELP - 90 Blocks Pre-NELP - 28 Blocks Total 118 Blocks Dev. Phase Phase-I Phase-II Delhi Mumbai Chennai Andaman - Nicobar Kolkata Phase-I (93 Blocks) Phase-II (21 Blocks) Development Phase (4 Blocks) Wells Drilled (17 Blocks)
  • 24. History of Gas Pricing in India
    • Gas a nuisance during production of Oil in early years difficult to get value for it. In 1960’s sold for a few rupees per MCM.
    • In1970’s demand for gas grew in Assam and Gujarat, prices rose. Gas used for applications including as city gas.
    • ONGC to get revenue from gas priced it on thermal equivalence of alternate fuel. In one factory two different prices for gas based upon the end use.
    • Consumer resistance & disputes were settled only after two decades.
    • In 1987 uniform price for all consumers with special concession only for the North East region.
    • In 1991 Kelkar committee report & recommendations on gas pricing.
  • 25. Existing APM Gas Pricing
    • Kelkar Committee (1991) parity with imported fuel oil, but price fixed on a yearly incremental basis.
    • Shankar Committee (1997) basic price of NG to basket of imported fuel oils at 55% in first year 65 % in second year and 75% in third year.
    • Gas prices were to reach 100 per cent parity with fuel oil by 2001-02 after which linked to the market, this has not happened.
    • Defined fuel oil basket now extremely high.
    • APM Price eventually revised in 2005 to Rs. 3200/MCM(approx. $2.10 per mmbtu)
  • 26. Present Prices of Non-APM Gas
    • Producing field Quantity Price (in $/mmbtu )
    • (in mmscmd) Floor Ceiling
    • Panna, Mukta & Tapti 5 4.08
    • 6 3.86
    • Ravva PSC 2.96 1.75 3.00
    • Ravva Satellite 1 2.30 3.30
    • Lakshmi Contract I 3.06 4.46
    • Contract II 3.68
    • GSPCL 3.76
    • Regassified LNG at Dahej 3.45
    • (Before sales tax)
  • 27. CNG Pricing
    • Maharashtra
      • Mumbai Rs 20.90 per kg
      • Mira-Bhayandar Rs 21 per kg
      • Thane Rs 21.30 per kg
    • National Capital Region
      • Delhi Rs 18 per kg
    • Gujarat
      • Ahmedabad Rs 25.53 per Kg
      • Baroda Rs 20.92 per Kg
      • Bharuch
      • Ankaleshwar
      • Surat Rs 22.55 per Kg
  • 28. Some Comments
    • Myanmar had offered well-head gas at $2.52/mmbtu
      • Excluding processing and transportation costs
    • India wanted Iran gas landed at $2/mmbtu
      • All put together, the cost of gas at the Indian border is expected to be above $5 per mmbtu as Iran wants LNG price for pipeline gas also
    • NTPC now willing to buy gas at a premium
      • as against the current APM gas price of $ 2.1 per mmbtu which is in short supply
  • 29. Demand Assessment -Natural Gas MMSCMD 2007 2010 2012 Power Sector 75 95 110 Fertilizer Sector 50 60 60 Industrial Sector 20 25 30 City Gas Distribution 10 15 15 Total 155 195 215
  • 30. Demand-Supply Balance 60 60 60 2003-04 2010-11 120 mmscmd 75 mmscmd 215 mmscmd 180 mmscmd Unmet Demand: 35 mmscmd Unmet Demand: 45 mmscmd Demand Supply existing sources Supply new domestic finds LNG Window of opportunity of approx 40 mmscmd

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