RISC RANEPA Munerman_18.09 Presentation

1. Department of Real Estate
Management
18 September 2014, RICS

2. About Speaker
• Dr. Ilya Munerman – Associate Professor, CEO&Founder of Management Company "Munerman and Partners"
• Member of the Partnership Council and Chairman of the Information Support Committee "The Community of Appraisal
Specialists "SMAO“, Member of anti-corruption committee of Russian state property agency;
• Appraisal specialist of 1 category, work experience as appraiser more than 15 years, state certified expert for real estate appraisal
and business valuation, litigation expert.
• Experience of educational research activity for more than 15 years.
• Author of educational programs, lecture courses and seminars for MBA students, master course, first and second higher
educations.
• «Quantitative Methods for Business valuation and analysis»;
• «Statistical methods and models in the management of assets and businesses»;
• «Information technology in assessment and value management»;
• «Modern models, methods and information support of valuation, value management and monitoring of economic criterions»;
• «Data mining for value management by emerging markets»
• Munerman has certificate of American Valuation Institute, additional education in the sphere of valuation activities, confirmed by
five certificates of upgrade qualifications, awarded diplomas of the Ministry of Property Relations of the Russian Federation and
the Chamber of Commerce of the Russian Federation, mention of the All-Russian Trade Union of audit, appraisal, advisory and
consulting organizations employees. In 2006 and 2007 he got the title of "Best Teacher of the Year" at the contest-festival
"Zolotaya logoda”.
• Also is a winner of “Reputation of a Year 2011” award, created by non- profit organization professional community of financial
market SAPFIR an International Organization financier guild in the nomination "The expansion of financial science."
• Since 2010 has developed indexes and scorings based on informational resources spark together with Informational Group
Interfax
• Due diligence index, launched in SPARK database won prize For Excellence in Innovation, annually awarded by a global network of
D & B Worldwide Network, which brings together providers of business information from dozens of countries.

3. Nowadays challenges of Russian real
estate market and contemporary
information technology tools for
response

4. Positive tendencies
Moscow is the center of positive tendencies and any 1 mln. or more
cities
– Official position to create a convenient environment
– Solution for traffic problems (new road hubs, paid parking and roads, public
transport)
– Architectectural projects contest, work with world famous architects
– Crowdsourcing technologies
– Restriction on building offices in the center of Moscow and high density
constriction
– Young urban communities
– New well-educated real estate management
– Public activities for saving some historical places and buildings
– Open data and public contests

5. Challenges
Infrastructure & institutes
– Corruption and nepotism
– Difficult situation of land property and land rental legislation
– Unreliable or badly managed communication
– Very long and difficult litigation procedure
– Poor forecasting and foresight technics without long term historical data
– No territory development plans
– No geological surveys and data
– Very high prices, as a result of investment activities

6. Challenges
Finance
– After 2008 crisis main target to save the price level. Now we see interesting hidden
discounts: 0-rate mortgage or rate less than inflation level, to 5 years free period of
communal payments etc.
– Surplus areas – offices more than people with high education, elite housing more
than families with over middle wages
– Massive escape from traditional capital from Russia, plans for replace it with
Chinese capital
– No long-term investment, rise inflation, ruble devaluation, high mortgage rate
– Property tax calculation technics

7. Challenges
Data and modelling
– Poor real estate and land cadaster
– Not full data coverage – bankruptcy events, financials, trade
– Many shelve, fraud companies, simulated illegal bankruptcies
– Bad financial data. Only about 1 000 Russian companies disclose IFRS or GAAP (but
these companies produce circa 80% of Russian GDP). Other Russian companies use
Russian accounting standards.
– No traditional services: e-Bay real estate, Zillow, Trulia etc.
– Open data and public contests seldom include fake and corrupted data
– A substantial number of public contests show and open data show corrupt data.

8. Responses
Data mining and analyzing technics
– Gathering data for all open source and developing APIs and pattern recognition
technics
– Work with statutory data, trade data from electronic platforms and other sites,
litigations data
– Use semantic analysis, create ontology, recognize events
– Developing a large amount of international and domestic data for real estate
projects
– Strong data verification and clustering before modeling
– Use special technics for difficult data (neural networks, RBF, CART, etc.)
– Provide an automated collateral monitoring system for banks and mortgage
agencies
– After collecting all of this date try using a modern predictive technologies such as
SVM for predictive real estate analysis

9. Questions and Answers
Thank you for your attention!