PS084 Future of Digital Marketing - "Making and Measuring Marketing Magic"

Magic Making and measuring marketing magic Econsultancy’s “Future of Digital Marketing”, London, June 2009 www.ianjindal.com

Future of Digital Marketing 1.Previous Futures 2.Epiphenomenology and Magic 3.Point of Sale 4.Obama-Preedy Pricing Principle 5.Metrics

Previous Futures 2006 - “Web 2.0” “The future’s already here...” “The future’s already here: it’s just not evenly distributed”

Previous Futures 2007 - “Harnessing Social Media” The “P” word... Mobile from Korea...

Previous Futures 2008 - “Meta” “Data, metadata, attention” “The year of mobile”. Really. “Meta” The Future of Digital Marketing: London, June 2008 www.ianjindal.com © Ian Jindal, contents and images unless noted.

Future Fatigue - now what? • Still busy with Web2.0! “The future’s already here: it’s just not evenly distributed” • Inwardly-focused • Tools, cranking handles, over- specificity. But - a new synthesis heralds an ‘Age of Magic’ “Meta” The Future of Digital Marketing: London, June 2008 www.ianjindal.com © Ian Jindal, contents and images unless noted.

Epiphenomenology. It starts with data

Data: We need a framework! Hyperdata Metadata Data Endodata Hypodata 0 1 3 10 100 1000s+ Number of freely connected nodes where exchange cost is near zero

Data: We need a framework! Hyperdata Metadata Data Business analysis Endodata Hypodata 0 1 3 10 100 1000s+ Number of freely connected nodes where exchange cost is near zero

Data: We need a framework! Hyperdata Metadata Data Business Services analysis Endodata Hypodata 0 1 3 10 100 1000s+ Number of freely connected nodes where exchange cost is near zero

Data: We need a framework! Hyperdata Metadata Data Business Mashups Services analysis Endodata Hypodata 0 1 3 10 100 1000s+ Number of freely connected nodes where exchange cost is near zero

Data: We need a framework! ★ Metadata – Segmentation and metadata for increased relevance. – “Behaviour” is useful metadata - if you can capture it - ‘ignore ratio’? – Capture offline as well as online - warranties...

Data: We need a framework! Hyperdata Metadata Data Business Mashups Services analysis Endodata Hypodata 0 1 3 10 100 1000s+ Number of freely connected nodes where exchange cost is near zero

Data: We 4. Data need a framework! Hyperdata Web2.0 Metadata Data Business Mashups Services analysis Endodata Hypodata 0 1 3 10 100 1000s+ Number of freely connected nodes where exchange cost is near zero

Data: We need a framework! Hyperdata Web2.0 Metadata Data Business Mashups Services analysis Endodata Hypodata 0 1 3 10 100 1000s+ Number of freely connected nodes where exchange cost is near zero

Towards Epiphenomenology. No longer your father’s data

Data Hyperdata Web2.0 Social Metadata Responsive and self-configuring Data Business Mashups Services analysis Endodata Responsive; ‘agents’ Hypodata 0 1 3 10 100 1000s+ Number of freely connected nodes where exchange cost is near zero

Data Hyperdata Web2.0 Social APML Metadata Responsive and self-configuring Data Business Mashups Services analysis Endodata Responsive; ‘agents’ Hypodata Microformats 0 1 3 10 100 1000s+ Number of freely connected nodes where exchange cost is near zero

Data • “Doing” not “viewing” – Making Social Networks “transactional” – You can “do”, not just “view” – From web to desktop – Web to web

Data – Google - hCard format added to Search results. – One click to add the result to your address book. – Could do the same with calendar items, or recommentations

Data – Attention Profiling Markup Language - www.apml.org – Beyond ‘personal’: interchange and exchange value of behaviour

Data Is it better than last year?

Data Hyperdata Web2.0 Social APML Metadata Responsive and self-configuring Data Business Mashups Services analysis Endodata Responsive; ‘agents’ Hypodata Microformats 0 1 3 10 100 1000s+ Number of freely connected nodes where exchange cost is near zero

When the network knows more than anyone

When the network knows more than anyone Hyperdata Web2.0 Social Network Metadata Responsive and self-configuring Data Business Mashups Services analysis Endodata Responsive; ‘agents’ Hypodata 0 1 3 10 100 1000s+ Number of freely connected nodes where exchange cost is near zero

When the network knows more than anyone • Over 100 million customers profiled • 40% active across multiple retailers • 50 billion user-generated reviews • 4 billion reviews served each month • 525 retailers (May 2009) • http://www.texastechpulse.com/bazaarvoice_releases_traffic_stats/s-0021683.html

When the network knows more than anyone Hyperdata Web2.0 Social Network Predictive Metadata Responsive and self-configuring Data Business Mashups Services analysis Endodata Responsive; ‘agents’ Hypodata 0 1 3 10 100 1000s+ Number of freely connected nodes where exchange cost is near zero

When the network knows more than anyone Hyperdata Web2.0 Social Network Phenomena Predictive Metadata Responsive and self-configuring Data Business Mashups Services analysis Endodata Responsive; ‘agents’ Hypodata 0 1 3 10 100 1000s+ Number of freely connected nodes where exchange cost is near zero

Predictive? You must need hypodata!

Hypodata Hyperdata Web2.0 Social Network Phenomena “Brain Scanners can predict a Metadata Predictive decision up to 10 seconds Responsive and self-configuring before a person is aware of Data Business Mashups Services analysis making that decision” Endodata Responsive; Nature Neuroscience, April 2008 ‘agents’ Hypodata 0 1 3 10 100 1000s+ Number of freely connected nodes where exchange cost is near zero

Hypodata - MIT’s “Sixth Sense” Hyperdata Web2.0 Social Network Phenomena Predictive Metadata Responsive and self-configuring Data Business Mashups Services analysis Endodata Responsive; ‘agents’ Hypodata http://www.flickr.com/photos/whiteafrican/3253881037/ Pattie Maes’s TED talk on MIT’s “Sixth Sense”: 0 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blBohrmyo-I 1 3 10 100 1000s+ Number of freely connected nodes where exchange cost is near zero

Hypodata - mashed up “ABSTRACT A headphone-type gaze detector for a full-time wearable interface is proposed. It uses a Kalman filter to analyze multiple channels of EOG signals measured at the locations of headphone cushions to estimate gaze direction. Evaluations show that the average estimation error is 4.4® (horizontal) and 8.3® (vertical), and that the drift is suppressed to the same level as in ordinary EOG. The method is especially robust against signal anomalies. Selecting a real object from among many surrounding ones is one possible application of this headphone gaze detector.” http://portal.acm.org/citation.cfm?doid=1125451.1125655 via http://liftlab.com/think/nova/ 2006/06/09/wearable-gaze-detector-in-the-form-of-headphones/

But what about hyperdata?

Hyperdata: Location-specific Plus gestures, image processing, bio-input... (heartbeat? Match.com?...).

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic

The Gamut of data Hyperdata Web2.0 Social Network Phenomena Metadata Data Endodata Hypodata 0 1 3 10 100 1000s+ Number of freely connected nodes where exchange cost is near zero

6. Next? Hyperdata Web2.0 Social Network Phenomena Metadata Data Endodata Hypodata 0 1 3 10 100 1000s+ Number of freely connected nodes where exchange cost is near zero

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic Nodes

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic Open Structured Data Nodes

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic ESP? Epiphenomena Open Structured Data Phenomena Network Social Web 2.0 Business Nodes

Enabling epiphenomenology: device integration • With us everywhere • Accesses data • Interlinking • Connected • Visualisation • Touch interface... • Location (GPS) • Direction (compass) • Image processing...

Bringing data alive PlazeMarks 2D codes Neat, but very “now”

Augmented Reality... Layar.eu - overlay ‘realtor’ data on street scenes

Augmented Reality

Augmented Reality • Easy to dismiss as hacked-up geekery... • But - contact lenses with LEDs being developed • Even without 3D AR, even coloured ‘confirmation lights’ could have impact. University of Washington, 2008: http://uwnews.org/article.asp?Search=contact+lens&articleid=39094

How will this impact retail and eCommerce?

Basic level - it already does.

Basic level - it already does. • AR barcode - by SMS • Price comparison? • Colour options? • Buy online?

Shopping: present, yet elsewhere

Elswhere, yet present • Oasis – iPhone App (by NN4M) – Good integration with product – Newsletter and storefinder – Basket... but web checkout for now – Just very, very ordinary and do- able!

Yesterday’s future looks more prescient • Nearly 2 years old • All components now exist and are free Copyright Icon Nicholson - http://www.iconnicholson.com/ nrf07/

Challenges - some provocations

What’s the point of a store? – “Concept Store” – taking control of the brand image, ambiance and merchandising – Training the customer – Vendor Relationship Management and live prototyping opportunities

What’s the point of a store? – Nappies - should be a subscription product. Draw for supermarkets, but can’t be great for Pampers... – Razors - POS an “experience shave” or “info point” – Configuring a sofa: the resulting bar code is an augmented reality image of the sofa, with embedded voucher and tracking code – Service point - think “Collect+”: delivered, tested, accepted or returned... from 0700-2300 7 days a week

Obama-Preedy Pricing Principle “It’s been a long time coming, but tonight, because of what we did 1. on this day, 2. in this election, 3. at this defining moment Change has come to America” President-Elect Obama, Victory Speech, November 2008 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7434843.stm

Obama-Preedy Pricing Principle “It’s been a long time coming, but today, thanks to profit-algorithms and data, 1. on this day, 2. in this location, 3. for this defining product 4. for this individual customer Fixed pricing has ended in retail”

Obama-Preedy Pricing Principle • Vouchers - expire when stock reaches 10 or fewer (eg buy it now) • Stacked discounts: sale, cashback, card- holder, end of sale, channel... Why? • According to availability • Proximity of alternatives (time and space) • Time limited: premium for first (eg 3GS), nephew’s birthday • Extent to which has shopped around

Performance KPI type What Example Volume Feed the machine Site visitors, viewers Margin Extract maximum nutrients. Profit per visit, per session, Chew well. per episode Minimise waste Don’t dribble; don’t leave the Minimise out-of-stock visits stalks Return on capital employed Calories in > effort to eat. ie Return on inventory, return “no salad” ;) on equipment, return on staff Retention Eat again, more easily Customer satisfaction, order (remember the potato patch) frequency, churn. With thanks to Michael Ross, eCommera. Bad analogy is not his responsibility though...

eCommerce metric Conversion.

eCommerce metric Sales/Square foot?

eCommerce metric π/εs

eCommerce metric π/εs Profit per engagement second. http://www.internetretailing.net/news/editorial-video-on-profit-per-pixel-second

eCommerce metric π/εs • Customer- focused Profit per engagement second. • Limits are attention and http://www.internetretailing.net/news/editorial-video-on-profit-per-pixel- second display-space • Pan-channel • Commercial • Cross-functional

Taking aim

Taking aim - today’s futures • Unprecedented data, integration and access: challenges our notions of ‘shop’ and of activity: “time” is the new “place” • No substitute for wonderful, rich data - it’s the coal to the industrial revolution. But watch the revolution, not the mine! • Channibalisation and other conflict is laughable and inept. • Use of the basics is free: now need retail ‘sparkle’ and credible personality and products to win: for this customer, at this time, for this product!

Thank you “Magic” Making and measuring marketing magic Econsultancy’s “Future of Digital Marketing” London, June 2009 www.ianjindal.com www.internetretailing.net

PS084 Future of Digital Marketing - "Making and Measuring Marketing Magic"

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