A talk given to several across the hotel industry on some shifts taking place outside the hospitality sector that could have significant impact in years to come. In particular looks at the challenge of creating more flexible, urban spaces; accommodating 4C of climate change; supporting more rental in every day life; creating apparent personalisation; using others data to see needs early; and proactively taking a lead role in alternative currencies. Ends with some key challenges for the branded hotel sector going forward.
Emerging Shifts and Impacts on Hospitality 10 may 2013
1. Emerging
Shi+s
and
Implica3ons
on
Hospitality
10
May
2013
|
Tim
Jones
|
Programme
Director
2. This
talk
provides
some
views
on
how
external
shi4s
outside
the
hotel
industry
could
provoke
key
changes
across
the
hospitality
sector
over
the
next
decade
or
so
Contents
• Context
–
Foresight
and
Future
Agenda
• Macro
Trends
for
the
Next
Decade
• Six
Key
Shi+s
and
Implica3ons
for
Hospitality
1. Flexible
Urban
Spaces
2. Sustainable
ConsumpBon
3. Access
Not
Ownership
4. Trusted
Data
5. Curated
Experiences
6. AlternaBve
Currencies
• Key
Challenges
for
Hotel
Brands
3. As
change
accelerates
in
an
increasingly
connected
world,
more
companies
are
looking
further
ahead
to
be>er
understand
emerging
opportuni?es
and
challenges
Context
-‐
Foresight
4. Organisa?ons
increasingly
want
to
iden?fy
and
understand
both
the
an?cipated
and
unexpected
changes
so
that
they
can
be
be>er
prepared
for
the
future
Context
-‐
Foresight
5. The
Future
Agenda
is
the
world’s
largest
open
foresight
programme
that
accesses
mul?ple
views
of
the
next
decade
so
all
can
be
be>er
informed
and
s?mulate
innova?on
7. By
2020
the
popula?on
will
have
grown
by
700m
with
many
of
us
living
longer:
A
good
number
of
us
will
be
in
marginal
regions
that
are
unable
to
accommodate
extra
growth
Imbalanced
Popula?on
Growth
Certain?es
8. We
will
see
economic,
physical
and
poli?cal
shortages
of
key
materials
that
significantly
change
our
perspec?ves
especially
around
access
to
food,
water
and
land
Key
Resource
Constraints
Certain?es
9. The
centre
of
gravity
of
global
wealth
is
accelera?ng
to
Asia
faster
than
expected:
Western
influence
is
simultaneously
decreasing
in
many
high-‐growth
markets
Asian
Wealth
Shi4
Certain?es
10. We
will
finally
be
connected
everywhere
-‐
everything
that
can
benefit
from
a
network
connec?on
will
have
one
and
all
will
have
the
poten?al
to
access
more
informa?on
Ubiquitous
Data
Access
Certain?es
12. By
2020
75%
of
us
will
live
in
urban
environments
and
these
will
increasingly
be
dense
ci?es
–
more
like
Paris
and
Hong
Kong
than
LA
or
Mexico
City.
Dense
Ci?es
Shi4
1:
Flexible
Urban
Spaces
13. Midi-‐city
clusters
will
be
of
growing
significance
with
400
middleweight
ci?es
in
emerging
markets
genera?ng
40%
of
global
growth
in
the
next
15
years.
Midi
City
Clusters
Shi4
1:
Flexible
Urban
Spaces
14. Millions
are
drawn
to
ci?es:
by
2015,
32
people
an
hour
will
be
moving
into
Shanghai,
39
into
Kinshasa
and
Jakarta,
42
into
Mumbai
and
Karachi,
50
into
Dhaka
and
58
into
Lagos.
Developing
World
Mobility
Shi4
1:
Flexible
Urban
Spaces
15. As
most
of
us
increasingly
live
in
smaller,
more
flexible,
mul?func?onal
spaces,
making
more
effec?ve
use
of
hotel
rooms
and
semi-‐public
areas
will
be
pivotal
design
trends
Flexible
Spaces
Shi4
1:
Flexible
Urban
Spaces
16. By
2020
‘weird
weather’
is
commonplace,
has
changed
some
pivotal
adtudes
and
the
macro
environmental
shi4s
are
increasingly
visible
to
all
and
ac?onable
by
many
Weird
Weather
Shi4
2:
Sustainable
Consump?on
17. Organiza?ons
are
focused
on
adapta?on
to,
rather
than
mi?ga?on
of,
climate
change
as
the
impacts
of
4C
rise
are
recognized
globally
–
should
we
be
building
floa?ng
hotels?
Adapta?on
Shi4
2:
Sustainable
Consump?on
18. As
‘green’
is
a
hygiene
factor,
social
innova?on
is
central
for
companies
as
philanthropic
exercises
are
replaced
by
a
more
genuine
focus
on
risk
and
sustainability
in
the
core
business
Genuine
Social
Ac?ons
Shi4
2:
Sustainable
Consump?on
19. New
regula?on,
rising
sustainability
impera?ves,
changing
consumer
sen?ment
and
increasing
cost
of
ownership
all
shi4
the
balance
to
access
as
we
prefer
to
rent
than
buy
Shi4
3:
Access
Not
Ownership
Lease
Everything
20. As
norms
change
across
sectors’
supply
chains,
more
items
will
be
rented
not
bought
–
many
brands
are
moving
towards
leasing
as
an
integral
part
of
their
business
models
Shi4
3:
Access
Not
Ownership
Supply
Chain
Leasing
21. Wan?ng
less
luggage,
guests
may
increasingly
prefer
to
rent
and
not
bring
their
own
stuff
–
whether
that
be
tablets
and
laptops
or
gym
kit,
business
shirts
and
even
evening
wear
Shi4
3:
Access
Not
Ownership
Luggage-‐less
Travel
22. As
the
amount
of
data
in
the
world
doubles
every
month
access
is
not
the
issue:
Making
be>er
sense
of
open
and
owned
informa?on
is
a
pivotal
and
dis?nc?ve
capability
Shared
Data
Shi4
4:
Trusted
Data
23. Leaders
expertly
use
(their
own
and
others)
data
to
get
closer
to
consumers
and,
as
the
nature
of
trust
and
value
shi4s,
established
brands
carry
less
relevance
and
weight
Value
and
Relevance
Shi4
4:
Trusted
Data
24. As
consumers
put
increasing
faith
in
those
most
able
to
match
unar?culated
needs
and
make
the
best
connec?ons,
hotel
stay
recommenda?ons
will
shi4
to
the
data
miners
Intelligent
Connec?ons
Shi4
4:
Trusted
Data
25. For
many
the
future
is
one
of
reduced
choice
but
not
less
interest
as
retailers
especially
provide
an
increasingly
edited
porlolio
of
products
through
ever
more
efficient
channels
Less
Choice
Shi4
5:
Curated
Experiences
26. Consumers
increasingly
seek
increasingly
tailored
selec?ons
of
op?ons
with
the
onus
on
providers
to
curate
the
‘choice
architecture’
and
give
guests
apparent
personalisa?on
Apparent
Personaliza?on
Shi4
5:
Curated
Experiences
27. Several
different
organiza?ons
are
already
making
strong
moves
into
taking
a
share
of
online
and
offline
payments
through
alterna?ve
currencies
and
plalorms
Exis?ng
Ac?vi?es
Shi4
6:
Alterna?ve
Currencies
28. Decreased
trust
in
ins?tu?ons
may
broaden
the
adop?on
of
new
usable
stores
of
value
controlled
by
a
few
key
global
consumer
brands
but
used
by
many
Shi4
6:
Alterna?ve
Currencies
Global
Scale
29. Looking
ahead
there
seems
to
be
four
main
challenges
and
/
or
opportuni?es
for
leading
hotel
brand
owners
Key
Thoughts
Four
Challenges
Going
forward
how
best
should
hotel
companies…
1. Take
advantage
of
trust
in
their
brands
to
deepen
rela3onships
2. Be
proac3ve
to
poten3al
disrup?on
from
outside
and
within
3. Challenge
themselves
on
their
individual
future
dis?nc?ve
capability
4. BePer
use
new
partnerships
to
expand
reach
beyond
current
assets
30. Future Agenda
84 Brook Street
London
W1K 5EH
+44 203 0088 141
futureagenda.org
tim.jones@futureagenda.org
The
world’s
leading
open
foresight
program