10 Top Ten Technologies to Invest (2010)

Frost & Sullivan

Top Ten Technologies and their Market Potential

Presented by
Krzysztof
Grzybowski
Industry Analyst /
Team Leader

“… There are 100 ways to wisely spend money, but only few of
them are successful…”. Warsaw, 22nd April 2010

Krzysztof Grzybowski

Krzysztof Grzybowski is Industry Analyst in the Frost &
Sullivan Technical Insights Team. He focuses on monitoring
and analyzing emerging trends, technologies and market in
of chemicals, materials, and food ingredients industries
across the globe.

He has joined the Frost & Sullivan in December 2007.
Additionally, he is one of the contributor to the Technical
Insights' weekly Advanced Coatings & Surface Technology
Alert, Nanotechnology Alert and High-Tech Materials Alert .
Industry Analyst, Krzysztof holds a PhD in Chemical and Process Engineering
Team Leader from Warsaw University of Technology in Poland. Before
joining Frost & Sullivan Krzysztof was leading research
project at Energy Conversion Research Center in Kyoto.
PhD Chemical and Process Further, he was working as assistant professor at Institute of
Engineering, Warsaw Physical Chemistry of Polish Academy of Science and
University of Technology, focusing on development of microfluidic devices. He has
Poland several publications referring to the nanomaterials and
nanoparticles, microfluidic devices, aerosols and filtration
Research Fellow of Energy processes in noted periodics.
Conversion Research Center,
Kyoto, Japan.

© Frost & Sullivan 2010
2

Agenda

o Few words as introduction to the presentation
o Our assessment methodology
o List of the most attractive technologies to invest
o Detailed analysis of each of the chosen technologies
o Comments on applicability of Top Ten Technologies in
CEE area.
o Conclusions and questions

3

is innovation? are the best ways to transfer
innovation into industry?

What What What What

are the most promising
are the challenges
technologies to invest?

of its commercialization?
4

are the best ways to transfer innovation into
is innovation?
industry?

What What What What

are the challenges of its are the most promising
commercialization? technologies to invest?

5

Top 10 Hot & Emerging Technologies …
Selection Methodology

Step 0

Framework finalization

Step 1
Create aa set of technologies
Create set of technologies Step 2
(> 25) that are poised to have Collection of Technologies
(> 25) that are poised to have across Industries
a significant impact in 2 phased evaluation of
a significant impact in
the near-mid term
the near-mid term
Technologies to identify the top
candidates

st level filter criterions to assess true potential of
Develop 11st level filter criterions to assess true potential of
Develop
technologies across applications. For that purpose, Frost && Sullivan
technologies across applications. For that purpose, Frost Sullivan
used the Technology Analysis Framework (TAF).
used the Technology Analysis Framework (TAF).
Our approach utilized the interrelation && dynamics between all
Our approach utilized the interrelation dynamics between all
focal points (such as NEED, FUNDING,OPPORTUNITY and
focal points (such as NEED, FUNDING,OPPORTUNITY and
CAPABILITY) that govern technology development, adoption
CAPABILITY) that govern technology development, adoption
and deployment in any industry for any technology
and deployment in any industry for any technology

Arrive at the final list of top 10 global technologies
Arrive at the final list of top 10 global technologies
nd
by testing them against 22nd
by testing them against level criterions
level criterions

6

… and the “award” goes to …
Through its constant global assessment, Frost & Sullivan has identified the following key technology platforms
that are poised to have a profound impact on a number of sectors across the globe. These areas present a
potential high ROI for any foray made by VC’s, PE, Investment Bankers etc.

• Nanomaterials • CIGS Solar

• Flexible Electronics • 3D Integration

• Advanced Batteries and • Autonomous Systems
Energy Storage

• White Biotech
• Smart Materials

• Lasers
• Green IT

7

Recession is a catalyst for increased innovation

Global R&D expenditures on Nanotechnology

Skeptics suspected that companies 25,000

would cut R&D funds on the first sign of 20,000
red ink. Innovation is critical as
companies are preparing for upturn. So, 15,000

$ bn
many companies have expanded their 10,000

products portfolio or pursue new
5,000
solutions to improve company’s growth
and margins. 0,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
year

Global Nanotechnology market
Abandoning the R&D programs is like
250
unilateral disarmament in wartime.
In 2015 global nanotechnology market
200 will reachvalue of 2500 $bn
Companies are committed in product
150
development for many years and going out
$ bn

100
from R&D investments could impact the
entity’s market potential for many years.
50

0
Tough times are the best moment for
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 building advantage over competitors.
year

Source: Frost & Sullivan
8

Nanomaterials
Example – Graphene
Most of the R&D efforts in nanocomposites are focused on the integration of carbon nanotubes
(CNTs) or inorganic nanoparticles into polymer matrices. Nanotubes and nanoparticles have
experienced many years of research and development effort on a global scale. Touted as the
‘next star’ of Nanotech world, Graphene has inherent qualities that might make it a serious
competitor for carbon nano tubes (CNT’s).

Insight Insight

• Aerospace
• Exfoliation • Automotive
Potential
Production Applications • Fuel Cells
• Epitaxial Growth • Electronic Devices
• Space, Niche etc.

• High degrees of toughness
• Princeton University • Vorbeck
Property • Surge in electrical conductivity with Active • University of Manchester • Nanotek
Advantages change in volume addition Entities • Northwestern University •Xg Science
• University of Akron
• Planar morphology yields conductivity
increases in base polymers of a factor of
20 • In case of a typical material with thickness of 30
nm, its prices should be in the range of 50$ per
• Improved surface hardness/scratch Potential kg for large quantities order.
resistance Cost • Generally, prices of MWCNT & SWCNT (as its
more difficult to produce) haven’t really dropped
• Improvement in flammability significantly in the last few years triggering a drive
characteristics of materials in Graphene related R&D

Frost & Sullivan believes strained economic situations provide an opportunity for stakeholders (material & product developers; R&D
entities; VC’s) to use their resources (time & money) towards assessing the real market potential of Graphene as low production cost
is one its biggest value proposition.

9

Nanomaterials penetration – Transparent conductive film case study

One of the most popular on the market transparent conductive films - ITO
(Indium Tin Oxide) is continuously replaced by nanosolutions

• • ITO has dominated the market of electronic goods, but
ITO has dominated the market of electronic goods, but
end users expected better electronic performance and
end users expected better electronic performance and
lower costs
lower costs

• Idea was born to disperse the conductive carbon
• Idea was born to disperse the conductive carbon
nanotubes in polymers in order to provide transparent
nanotubes in polymers in order to provide transparent
and conductive coatings and foils. Initially, the idea was
and conductive coatings and foils. Initially, the idea was
ITO has dominated criticized mostly by the whole market.
criticized mostly by the whole market.
market of transparent
conductive films for
electronic • • Now, we have two key players offering conductive films
Now, we have two key players offering conductive films
equipment. However, made of CNTs. Even despite the fact that ITO becomes
made of CNTs. Even despite the fact that ITO becomes
its lack of flexibility, now cheaper, mostly due to the falling prices of Indium,
now cheaper, mostly due to the falling prices of Indium,
expensive the CNTs conductive foils and conductive polymers will
the CNTs conductive foils and conductive polymers will
grab more market share in near future.
grab more market share in near future.
processing and
fragility stimulated
development of other
solutions.

10

Flexible Electronics
Market Potential
Technology
Global Printed Electronics Market

6 45,00%

40,00%
5
35,00%

Growth rate [%]
4 30,00%

Revenues [$ bn]
25,00%
3
Revenues 20,00%
2 Growth Rate 15,00%

10,00%
1
5,00%

0 0,00%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
year

Potential Markets with
connected needs Medical
Devices
Consumer
Electronics
Military

Supply
Chain Food
Packaging
Current and developed solutions

11

CIGS (copper indium gallium selenide) solar cells are one of the PV
solutions on technology roadmap
CIGS is the most efficient 2nd generation solar cells (Eff = 19.9%)

2nd generation
solar cells CIGS
possess the
Silicon best
solar cells position to
conquer PV
3rd and 4th market
generation
solar cells

• • Traditional silicon solar
Traditional silicon solar
cells were found to be • There are few types of
cells were found to be • There are few types of
relatively expensive due
relatively expensive due currently developed solar • Huge successes of CdTe solar cells
currently developed solar • Huge successes of CdTe solar cells
to the high silicon prices cells technology come with some materials
to the high silicon prices cells technology come with some materials
(impacted by the
(impacted by the • • The most popular silicon problems (price, alleged toxicity)
The most popular silicon problems (price, alleged toxicity)
demand of electronic
demand of electronic counterparts are now CdTe • • Current development of CIGS solar cells
counterparts are now CdTe Current development of CIGS solar cells
industry)
industry) solar cells and CIGS. promise their market success.
solar cells and CIGS. promise their market success.

12

Key Insight: Solar accounted for 29% (119 deals in 2008)
of the overall number of VC and Private Equity
CIGS Solar investments in the Renewable Energy Sector

There is expected to be a drop of 45% in the module price leading to
massive deployments and growth opportunities for stakeholders
involved

13

Advanced Batteries and Energy Storage

Micro UAV
Solider Human Energy
Electric Vehicle
Modernization Harvesting
Fuel Cell

14

Wasted heat reutilization with Thermoelectrics

• • American Department of Energy initiated program
American Department of Energy initiated program
of fuel consumption reduction in cars by
of fuel consumption reduction in cars by
application of thermoelectrics. The aim is to
application of thermoelectrics. The aim is to
reduce the fuel usage by 10% harvesting the heat
reduce the fuel usage by 10% harvesting the heat
of the exhaust gases and transform them into
of the exhaust gases and transform them into
electricity with thermoelectrics.
electricity with thermoelectrics.
• • 44 strong research teams have undertaken this
strong research teams have undertaken this
challenge.
challenge.

• • Current proof of concept is BMW Series 55 , Model
Current proof of concept is BMW Series , Model
Year 2010, 3.0 Liter Gasoline Engine with
Year 2010, 3.0 Liter Gasoline Engine with
Thermoelectric Generator with aa fuel consumption
Thermoelectric Generator with fuel consumption
reduction 5%.
reduction 5%.

5%
?
less
?
fuel

15

Key Insight: Within the various types of smart materials,
Smart Materials Piezoelectric materials are expected to one of the fastest
growth areas with a major size of the overall market

Smart materials sense changes in the environment around them and
respond in a predictable manner
Hold immense business potential across a wide range of industries

Using a smart material instead of conventional mechanisms to sense and
respond, can simplify devices, reducing weight and the chances of failure

Description Developed by

Developed a family of materials, which possesses the
Autonomic Materials Beckman Institute - UIAC, Illinois, USA
ability to heal themselves without any external activity

Developed a transparent plastic that, if fractured, will
Exotic Materials Institute - UCLA, Los
Self-Repairing Plastic mend itself when heated. This can be used to create self-
Angeles, USA
repairing products
Products
Developed materials that could respond to external stimuli
such as temperature, pH, light, electric field, chemicals, Conglomeration of various researchers
Smart Polymers for
and ionic strength by itself worldwide
Biomedical Applications

Chemical systems of Janus particles (systems) – structures of functional Unilever (Langmuir 2003), L’Oreal,
controlled behavior properties that vary across material’s surface University of Illinois

16

Green IT

The goals of green IT include the usage of novel
The goals of green IT include the usage of novel
technological solutions to reduce the carbon footprint
technological solutions to reduce the carbon footprint
and decrease green house gas emissions resulting
and decrease green house gas emissions resulting
from the IT operations of companies, as well as to
from the IT operations of companies, as well as to
reduce energy consumption and therefore limit the
reduce energy consumption and therefore limit the
burning up of fossil fuels.
burning up of fossil fuels.
Green IT predominantly refers to greener ways of
Green IT predominantly refers to greener ways of
exploiting computing power and utilizing data storage,
exploiting computing power and utilizing data storage,
as well reducing energy consumption involved in
as well reducing energy consumption involved in
running large IT operations.
running large IT operations.

Green computing has undergone a significant
Green computing has undergone a significant
makeover, from being aa do-good concept for
makeover, from being do-good concept for
showcasing the company’s environmental
showcasing the company’s environmental
consciousness and for demonstrating better corporate
consciousness and for demonstrating better corporate
social responsibility (CSR), to actually being aa must-do
social responsibility (CSR), to actually being must-do
strategy. Rising energy costs and economic hardships
strategy. Rising energy costs and economic hardships
have brought aa stronger spotlight on green IT solutions,
have brought stronger spotlight on green IT solutions,
more for the cost benefits that itit offers than for the
more for the cost benefits that offers than for the
environmental benefits itit implies.
environmental benefits implies.

Source: Frost Frost & Sullivan 2010
© & Sullivan
17

IC systems evolution toward 3D packaging

System-In-
Package (SiP)

3D Integration System-On-
Approaches Chip (SoC) Illustrations

3D Integrated
Circuit (IC)

Critical markers for sector growth The Road Ahead

18

Key Insight: Globally, on-going programs in related
Autonomous Systems areas is currently worth $11 billion and it is
expected to be one of the highest area of spending

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and autonomous land vehicles (ALV) are
the key entities of focus for autonomous system development
Autonomous land vehicle (ALV) is a complex wheeled or tracked robotic
structure, which is typically equipped with sophisticated sensors
including stereo cameras, laser scanners or/and radars to detect terrain
and obstacles
Most of the developments and technology breakthroughs in this space
have their origin in military projects and applications
However, the civilian market demand is also picking up with applications
like civil services, first responders, homeland security etc.

2010 2020 2030 2040

19

Key Insight: Potential market size by 2014 (of
White Biotech chemicals relying on White Biotech capabilities) is
expected to be > $72 billion

Considered by many as a “hidden solution”
Involves use of micro-organisms and biological catalysts
(like enzymes) to the production of bio-based chemicals, materials
and fuels
Expected to outstrip ‘Green’ and ‘Red’ Biotech as market
demand picks up in the coming years
Substantial increase in the investment of industrial biotech is
expected to pay dividends for sustainable energy and materials
production

Related Global Developments

Bioethanol Developed a new bacterial strain capable of degrading straw, agricultural
Production plant waste and so on by converting them into renewable energy fuels

Cleaning Developed a method for using rapeseed for detoxifying contaminated
Contaminated land by combining the plant, which is grown for biofuel, with heavy metal
Soil tolerant bacteria

Hydrogen and Employed DNA insertional mutagenesis and high-throughput screening
Hydrocarbon approaches to identify genes that play a vital role in enabling microalgae
Production to produce biofuels

20

White Biotech case studies

Vitamin B2 production Cephalexin (antibiotic)
• • Traditional chemical synthesis includes 88 step of
Traditional chemical synthesis includes step of •• Traditional bio-chemical synthesis 10 steps
Traditional bio-chemical synthesis 10 steps
chemical synthesis •• DSM combination of enzymatic processes and
chemical synthesis DSM combination of enzymatic processes and
• • Biotechnological process of BASF require 11 fermentation allowed for materials and energy saving
Biotechnological process of BASF require fermentation allowed for materials and energy saving
fermentation step by 65%! with variable cost reduction by 50%.
fermentation step by 65%! with variable cost reduction by 50%.

Bio – based polymers Scouring of textiles
• • NatureWorsks from CargillDow is used in clothing,
NatureWorsks from CargillDow is used in clothing, • • Traditional approach is based on material treatment
Traditional approach is based on material treatment
packaging and electronic. ItIt is not produced from oil or
packaging and electronic. is not produced from oil or with hot alkaline solution
with hot alkaline solution
natural gas but sugar or corn. Benefits are lower • Enzymatic approach of Novozymes allowed for
natural gas but sugar or corn. Benefits are lower • Enzymatic approach of Novozymes allowed for
demand for fossils (from 25 to 55%), which is still decrease environmental impact of this process and
demand for fossils (from 25 to 55%), which is still decrease environmental impact of this process and
needed,but company promise to replace them in future.
needed,but company promise to replace them in future. reduce energy consumption by 25% and cost by 20%.
reduce energy consumption by 25% and cost by 20%.
Environmental impact

Biotech

Biotech offers highly promising
alternative to the traditional chemical
synthesis.
Traditional

Cost

21

Lasers

Global
Market in 2008 : $6.22 Billion Market in 2014 : $9.10 Billion
CAGR (2008 -2014) : 8.2%

Types
of Lasers

Solid State Fibre T:Sapphire Diode CO2 Helium Neon

North America - Europe -
Share 2008 : ~36% Share, 2008 : ~34% Asia -
Share 2014 : ~33% Share, 2008 : ~29%
Share, 2014 : ~31%
Share, 2014 : ~35%

Growth Attributes
• CO2 lasers are expected to grow due to demand for high power lasers
in industrial applications (cutting and welding)
• YAG lasers also offer significant opportunity in industrial laser
applications and medical lasers.
• High power solid state lasers are also increasingly used in military
applications
• Fibre lasers are expected to increase their market share mainly due to
the demand from industrial materials processing applications using low
power
• Excimer lasers are expected to offer opportunity in semiconductor
and medical applications
Long Term Key Opportunities in Defense Sector –
“Directed Energy Weapons”

22

Impact Mapping of Top Ten Technologies on CEE Industry

Mature

Nanotechnology

Lasers
White Biotech
CIGS
Energy Storage
Green IT

Importance
Flexible Electronics 3d Packaging
for CEE

Autonomous Systems
Smart Materials

Undeveloped

Source: Frost & Sullivan.

23

CEE attractiveness for R&D activities
Key reasons for investing in R&D in CEE

CEE Region holds
CEE Region holds
• Increasing strength of local economies extensive potential for
extensive potential for
R&D activities across
R&D activities across
• Human Capital various technologies
various technologies
and industries. Its
and industries. Its
• Accessibility of high level specialists undeniable
undeniable
• Strong institutional support capabilities have
capabilities have
already convinced
already convinced
• Increasing domestic markets various industrial
various industrial
players to localize
players to localize
• EU Structural Funds their strategic R&D
their strategic R&D
divisions in this part of
divisions in this part of
• Special Economic Zones Europe.
Europe.

24

Foreign investments in R&D centers in Poland

Intel, Compuware,
Intel, Compuware, GE, Avio, Samsung
GE, Avio, Samsung
Humax, Lucent
Humax, Lucent Electronic, SAS Institutes,
Electronic, SAS Institutes,
Technologies, Alstom,...
Technologies, Alstom,... TopGan, Avon, Reckitt
TopGan, Avon, Reckitt
Many companies
Many companies
Benckiser, Ammono,
Benckiser, Ammono,
Canon, 3M,Basell,…
Canon, 3M,Basell,…
understood the
understood the
huge potential of
huge potential of
Poland as area for
Poland as area for
R&D activities.
R&D activities.
ABB, Google, Pliva,
ABB, Google, Pliva,
Delphi, IBM, Apriso,
Delphi, IBM, Apriso,
Motorola, Sabre, Pratt &
Motorola, Sabre, Pratt &
Whitney,...
Whitney,...

Siemens, Delphi,
Siemens, Delphi,
Glaxo SmithKline,
Glaxo SmithKline, Alstom, Volvo, Remy
Alstom, Volvo, Remy
Telecordia, Microsoft,...
Telecordia, Microsoft,... Int., Opera Software,...
Int., Opera Software,...
Source: Frost & Sullivan, PAIZ
Source: Frost & Sullivan, PAIZ

25

Few final remarks and conclusions

Players from CEE markets are in good technical position to undertake R&D programs
1
1
Players from CEE markets are in good technical position to undertake R&D programs
related to Top Ten Technologies
related to Top Ten Technologies

Nanotechnology, White Biotech, Lasers, Energy Storage Systems,… are the most probable
2
2
Nanotechnology, White Biotech, Lasers, Energy Storage Systems,… are the most probable
areas for CEE players activity. However, developments in other sectors are also possible.
areas for CEE players activity. However, developments in other sectors are also possible.

Institutional support (like FP7) will speed up technologies development and stimulate
3
3
Institutional support (like FP7) will speed up technologies development and stimulate
technology transfer from research institutions to industry.
technology transfer from research institutions to industry.

The European policy toward “green” and sustainable solutions stimulates the development
4
4
The European policy toward “green” and sustainable solutions stimulates the development
and market growth of technologies meeting their criteria.
and market growth of technologies meeting their criteria.

Investments in R&D in CEE region are continuously growing and there are local companies
5
5
Investments in R&D in CEE region are continuously growing and there are local companies
that become key players in their areas of expertise.
that become key players in their areas of expertise.

26

Dr in . Krzysztof Grzybowski
Industry Analyst - Team Leader, TI
Frost & Sullivan
DID +48 22 390 4140
Mobile +48 783391860
Fax +48 22 390 4160
Email:krzysztof@frost.com

Thank You

27

10 Top Ten Technologies to Invest (2010)

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