Russian LNG Geopolitical focus

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Konstantin Simonov’s speech presentation at LNG Global Congress.

London, UK, September, 27, 2011.

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Russian LNG Geopolitical focus

  1. 1. Russian LNG: Geopolitical Focus Konstantin Simonov London 2 7 th of September 201 1
  2. 2. Swing s of E xpectation s <ul><li>200 6-08: expectation of increasing of prices and gas deficit </li></ul><ul><li>2009-2010 : expectation of cheap gas and long-term gas to gas competition </li></ul><ul><li>2011: careful return to old agenda </li></ul>
  3. 3. Russia: Expectations of Consumers <ul><li>2005-2008 : level of production? </li></ul><ul><li>2009-2010 – level of prices? </li></ul><ul><li>2011 – level of cheap gas production ? </li></ul><ul><li>Quantity or Price ? </li></ul>
  4. 4. C ase for Russia <ul><li>Qatar moratorium </li></ul><ul><li>Fukushima and the end of “nuclear renaissance” </li></ul><ul><li>“ Arabian spring” </li></ul><ul><li>Budget crises in EU and future of renewables </li></ul>
  5. 5. C ase against Russia <ul><li>Shale gas </li></ul><ul><li>Possibility of second wave of economic crisis </li></ul><ul><li>LNG ? </li></ul>
  6. 6. Russian Attitude to LNG <ul><li>D ual relation </li></ul><ul><li>O n the one hand : new markets for Russian gas, additional flexibility of supply </li></ul><ul><li>O n the other hand : competitor s, possible destruction of existing pricing system (long-term contracts) </li></ul><ul><li>Pipes for Europe, LNG for Asia and Atlantic market </li></ul>
  7. 7. Russian Market Strategy Source: General Scheme for Gas Industry Development to 2030
  8. 8. Today’s Competitors Source: BP World Energy Outlook 2011
  9. 9. Today’s Competitors Source: BP World Energy Outlook 2011
  10. 10. Short-Term Forecast
  11. 11. Forecast from Russia Source: General Scheme for Gas Industry Development to 2030
  12. 12. Who is the Main Threat? Source: BP World Energy Outlook 2011, General Scheme for Gas Industry Development to 2030
  13. 13. List of Compatitors <ul><li>Iran – political uncertainty </li></ul><ul><li>Nigeria - political i n stability </li></ul><ul><li>North of Africa – “Arabian spring” </li></ul><ul><li>Malaysia and Indonesia – problems with reserves and increasing of domestic consumption </li></ul><ul><li>Norway – lack of proved reserves </li></ul><ul><li>Main Russian problems era Qatar and Australia </li></ul>
  14. 14. LNG Capacity and Import to Europe (bcm)
  15. 15. I n search of Geopolitical Compromise <ul><li>China for Australia, Japan for Sakhalin ? </li></ul><ul><li>Denial from nuclear energy in Japan? </li></ul><ul><li>What to do with Qatar? </li></ul>
  16. 16. Yamal vs Australia
  17. 17. R estoration of Russian Gas Export ? <ul><li>Source: Gazprom </li></ul>
  18. 18. Export Plans <ul><li>Source: Economic Development Ministry </li></ul>
  19. 19. Export Plans <ul><li>Source: Economic Development Ministry </li></ul>
  20. 20. <ul><li>Thank you! </li></ul><ul><li>www.energystate.ru </li></ul>

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