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Russia and europe battle or cooperation
- 1. National Energy Security Fund Russia and Europe: Battle or Cooperation? Konstantin Simonov Athens March 28 2012
- 2. Choice Point • Сhoice point for Europe: to preserve Russia as the main supplier of gas or to continue the process of diversification and liberalization of market • Choice point for Russia: struggle for European market or reorientation to new consumers in Asia • Europe wants to implement American model of market. But in USA gas market is self-sufficient • Main question for Russia: to invest money to greenfields or to wait National Energy Security Fund
- 3. Situation is Returned to 2007 Gazprom Supplies to Europe, Turkey, Billion Cubic Metres 165 158,8 160 155 150,5 150 150 145 140,6 138,6 140 135 130 125 2007y 2008 y 2009 y 2010y 2011y Source: Gazprom National Energy Security Fund
- 4. Situation is Returned to 2007 Gazprom supplies to Europe and Turkey, bcm 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Germany 39 34.7 31.4 34 34 Italy 21 22.3 19 13 17.1 Turkey 23.4 23.8 20 18 26 France 9.8 10.4 10.1 9.8 9.5 Finland 4.7 4.8 4.4 4.8 4.2 Austria 5.4 5.8 5.4 5.6 5.4 Greece 3.1 2.8 2.1 2.1 2.9 Netherlands 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.4 Switzerland 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Belgium 0.1 0 0 0 0 Great Britain 1.2 7.5 7.3 6.8 8.2 Hungary 6.4 8.9 7.6 6.9 6.3 Poland 7 7.9 9 9.9 10.3 Slovakia 6.2 6.2 5.4 5.8 5.9 Czech 7 7.6 6.4 8.6 7.6 Republic Romania 3.9 3.6 2 2.3 2.8 Bulgaria 3.4 3.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 Serbia 2.1 2.2 1.5 1.8 1.4 Croatia 1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0 Bosnia and 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 Herzegovina Macedonia 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Slovenia 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 Total 150.5 158.8 140.6 138.6 150 Source: Gazprom National Energy Security Fund
- 5. What will be the Rules after 2022-2026? Gazprom's Contract Quantities Exclusive of Renewal 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2011y 2015y 2020y 2030y Source: Gazprom Greece is an exception: contract will be finished at 2016 (3bcm) National Energy Security Fund
- 6. Old or New Partners? • Turkmenistan! • Iran!! • Qatar!!! • LNG from North America!!!! • Shale gas!!!!! • Mozambique!!!!!! • Whose else? National Energy Security Fund
- 7. Main Problems • Price war for Azeri gas • Increasing of the role of Turkey • Political price of development of South Corridor • Consequence of War in Iran for Caspian Region National Energy Security Fund
- 8. More Talks than Gas • 16 bcm – 6 bcm for Turkey = just 10 bcm Shakh Deniz Cup TAP TAP ITGI 10 bcm!!! Nabucco SEEP National Energy Security Fund
- 9. Caspian Gas is not Cheap Estimate Price for European Consumers 450 397 415 380 373 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Price for European Price for European Price for European Average price for consumers for Azeri consumers for Azeri consumers for Azeri Russian gas (nine gas transporting gas transporting gas transporting months ended through Nabucco through ITGI through TAP September 30, 2011) Price of Azeri Gas (2011) Source: RWE, Gazprom, NESF 280 300 250 250 200 150 100 50 0 Price for Russia Price for Rturkey National Energy Security Fund Source: Neft Rossii
- 10. Сonsequences of Soon War? National Energy Security Fund
- 11. Сonsequences of Soon War? Ethnic structure of Iran Population (million people) 13 Persians 5 Azerbaijanians Kurds 45 Others 12 Source: The University of Texas National Energy Security Fund
- 12. Сonsequences of Soon War? Shares in Shakh Deniz Field 9,0% 10,0% 25,5% BP (operator) Statoil Total 10,0% NICO Lukoil SOCAR 10,0% TPAO 25,5% 10,0% National Energy Security Fund
- 13. South Corridor vs. South Corridor National Energy Security Fund Source: Gazprom
- 14. Thank you! www.energystate.ru National Energy Security Fund